3rd spot relegation ?

LuckyLloyd

If any of you think Wigan will escape this, I urge you to visit a bookmaker and place a few quid on it. Your faith will be amply rewarded...

Patser

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wigan have this knack of going to top teams at the end of the season and winning. If Arsenal have top 4 secured, I could easily see Wigan winning there.

Going to the Emirate's 3 days after an FA cup final and needing a result? That's a very tough ask. I also can't see Arsenal having 4th wrapped up and even if they do, they'll be chasing 3rd place and no qualifying stage.

OneColdHand

Stoke

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wigan have this knack of going to top teams at the end of the season and winning. If Arsenal have top 4 secured, I could easily see Wigan winning there.

Wigan have 4 games in 10 days, the last of which is that Arsenal game. Can't see them winning it.

gnfnrhead

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wigan have this knack of going to top teams at the end of the season and winning. If Arsenal have top 4 secured, I could easily see Wigan winning there.

We wont unless spurs implode again. Even then I'm not sure we could have top four secured before the game starts.

legendary.xix

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wigan have this knack of going to top teams at the end of the season and winning. If Arsenal have top 4 secured, I could easily see Wigan winning there.

It was there knack of these big games that had me confident they'd beat Spurs at the weekend. They would have as well had they not shot themselves in the foot with two gifted goals to Spurs.

I think Wigan can beat both West Brom (A) and Swansea (H). Having not won a game in 4, no wins in April, Saturday is Wigan's crucial game. They have to win. If they do it could spring them on to a win over Swansea a few days later. If they don't beat WBA, and it's a tough ask, they'll be near as good as relegated.

At the same time, despite last night's huge win, I don't see Villa winning at Norwich at the weekend. I see Villa being on 37 or 38 points going into the last day. That'd leave Wigan still with a shout of survival if they were to even manage 4 points in their next 2 games. All to play for yet.

legendary.xix

I don't accept Villa are safe. It's good for them to get on to 40 points but I don't think they'll win their next game. If Wigan beat Swansea at home they'll be 2 points behind Villa going into the last game.
Sunderland should be safe if they can take 4 points from Stoke and Southampton, both of which are home games.

Patser

If Sunderland beat Stoke on Monday and Wigan beat Swansea Tuesday then the only teams in bottom half if the table not fighting relegation will be QPR and Reading. Even Swansea in 9th will be mathematically able to go down with only 2 games left.

We're going to need a bigger poll

Paully D

Went through the predictor a couple of times and came up with the above, trying to stick with current form etc.

I'm probably being a bit pessimistic by giving Sunderland only 2 points from home games against Stoke and Southampton, but with no Sessegnon we'll have no one to break either side down. One win from either of those games and we should be okay though.

Wigan take 6 points from home games against Swansea and Villa and lose to Arsenal.

Worth pointing out that for my predictions, the big games are QPR V Newcastle and Norwich V West Brom. If Newcastle were to win at QPR they'd be fine as would Norwich with a win against West Brom, but Newcastle are the worst away team in the league IIRC with only one win away from home this year so I've put that down for a draw, and Norwich tend to draw at home with mid-table teams since the turn of the year, so that goes down as a draw too. If both of those were to win, which is very possible, and Sunderland don't win either of those home games, then they'd be relegated.

Unbelievably tight, there probably really is no point predicting what will happen :pac:

OctavarIan

Paully D wrote: »

Unbelievably tight, there probably really is no point predicting what will happen :pac:

Norwich relegated by a single goal, that's sick! :P

legendary.xix

Paully D wrote: »

Unbelievably tight, there probably really is no point predicting what will happen :pac:

Yeah, us Sunderland fans are best taking each game one at a time. Big game Monday night. Need to win that and get on to 40.

SantryRed

I had Villa going down on 40 points with Stoke 17th on 40 too!

homerjay2005

Stoke

Newcastle goal should have counted, it was definately over the line.

COYVB

Jesus. Embarrassed for those still trying to convince themselves that villa will go down. For that to happen 5 teams below them have to outperform them to differing extents over the remaining games, with two of those teams playing each other, and three others playing top 4 sides

There's absolutely no chance of villa going down, nor anyone on 40 points right now. Too many incredibly unlikely things would have to combine, over two weekends for it to happen. One team will likely pass some of the 40 pointers now. 2 might. 3 could. 4 is pushing it. 5 is about as likely as wigan taking 9 points from their last 3 games

Zeek12

Sunderland

Paully D wrote: »

Went through the predictor a couple of times and came up with the above, trying to stick with current form etc.

I just gave the BBC predictor a go there too....and just like you, also got Norwich to go down on goal difference by just one goal!
I had Norwich and Wigan both on 39 pts.

Of course the final table probably won't be anything like most of the predictions! Last few weeks always throws up some pretty weird results.

Patser

COYVB wrote: »

Jesus. Embarrassed for those still trying to convince themselves that villa will go down. For that to happen 5 teams below them have to outperform them to differing extents over the remaining games, with two of those teams playing each other, and three others playing top 4 sides

There's absolutely no chance of villa going down, nor anyone on 40 points right now. Too many incredibly unlikely things would have to combine, over two weekends for it to happen. One team will likely pass some of the 40 pointers now. 2 might. 3 could. 4 is pushing it. 5 is about as likely as wigan taking 9 points from their last 3 games

As 1 Villa fan to another - please don't tempt fate;)

Seperately I think it'd fun if Fulham got really dragged into the relegation scrap after their complacent display against Reading today. Probably already mentally on the beach but now not really safe either.

djPSB

Norwich were 14/1 to go down before todays game.

madcabbage

Stoke

Goddamit, will Wigan ever just embrace relegation already! I'll be raging if Villa go down over them. :mad:

DazMarz

Villa are "safe" now. They're on the magic 40 points. 14th down is where the danger is: Southampton, Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland, Wigan. They're the only ones in direct danger, IMO. Villa did enough to get to 40 points and they're "safe" now.

There would need to be some kind of an absolute miracle for the 5 teams below them to all leapfrog them. I could see 3 teams doing it, MAYBE... but not 4 or 5 teams.

Villa secured their safety by beating Norwich yesterday.

SantryRed

I don't see why 40 points is safe at this moment in time. Especially if Sunderland and Wigan win their games on Monday and Tuesday, which is a huge possibility.

shadowcomplex

I hope Newcastle go down

COYVB

SantryRed wrote: »

I don't see why 40 points is safe at this moment in time. Especially if Sunderland and Wigan win their games on Monday and Tuesday, which is a huge possibility.

40 points is "safe at this moment in time" because for anyone on 40 to go down, at least 5 teams would need to overhaul them in the remaining 2 game weeks. At a push, you might say 3 might manage it. Maybe 4 given a freak storm of results, but five? Hugely unlikely. The teams who are down there aren't down there because they're regularly capable of putting solid runs together where they pick up more than a point a game, realistically

DazMarz

SantryRed wrote: »

I don't see why 40 points is safe at this moment in time. Especially if Sunderland and Wigan win their games on Monday and Tuesday, which is a huge possibility.

It's not so much the 40 points, it's more about the fact that Villa now have 5 teams behind them, between them and relegation. Villa could still end up in 17th, but that's requiring 4 of the 5 teams beneath them to leapfrog them. That's why I say they're safe. I think Villa will finish 14th/15th and be safe enough.

I have a feeling Norwich could go down, tbh.

Though Newcastle did themselves no favours yesterday by being gunshy after the humiliation they suffered against Liverpool.

SantryRed

COYVB wrote: »

40 points is "safe at this moment in time" because for anyone on 40 to go down, at least 5 teams would need to overhaul them in the remaining 2 game weeks. At a push, you might say 3 might manage it. Maybe 4 given a freak storm of results, but five? Hugely unlikely. The teams who are down there aren't down there because they're regularly capable of putting solid runs together where they pick up more than a point a game, realistically

Wigan to play Swansea and Villa = 6 points
Sunderland to play Stoke and Southampton = 3/4 points
Newcastle to play QPR = 3 points
Southampton to play Stoke = 1/3 points
Norwich to play WBA = 1/3 points

I don't think it's that inconceivable. Especially with the teams on poorer form all playing teams already on holiday in a mental sense.

BUNK1982

I wouldn't say Villa are safe yet - surprised that everyone assumes we won't get anything out of the last 2x games??

Bounty Hunter

Sunderland

BUNK1982 wrote: »

I wouldn't say Villa are safe yet - surprised that everyone assumes we won't get anything out of the last 2x games??

As a Villa fan I wouldnt say Villa are safe yet but we should be in the prem next year imo, especially given our form and that our GD is now better than Norwich, Newcastle and Wigans.

Just did the prediction thing myself and even though in the other thread I said I thought Wigan would go down, like a lot of people in this thread it seems I ended up with Norwich in the 3rd relegation spot. In mine though it was Sunderland they lost out on goal difference to not Wigan who instead finished a point ahead of those 2 in 16th

Norwich vs West Brom will be huge (as obviously will be a lot of fixtures) if they cant win that they will need to get points away to Man City on the last day to stay up imo.

COYVB

SantryRed wrote: »

Wigan to play Swansea and Villa = 6 points
Sunderland to play Stoke and Southampton = 3/4 points
Newcastle to play QPR = 3 points
Southampton to play Stoke = 1/3 points
Norwich to play WBA = 1/3 points

I don't think it's that inconceivable. Especially with the teams on poorer form all playing teams already on holiday in a mental sense.

It's a lot less likely than the alternative though, which is at least one of the 5 teams not yet on 40 points not making it to 40 points

It's a massive ask for Wigan to get 6 points from the 2 games you mention. Take a look at their last 5-6 results, they're not in the form people seem to think they are

A v West Brom (W) 2-3
H v Tottenham (D) 2-2
A v West Ham (L) 2-0
A v Man City (L) 1-0
A v QPR - (D) 1-1

1 win in 5, regularly shipping 2 goals per match, and you reckon they're likely to win 3 out of their last 4? Get real man

Hammer Archer

homerjay2005 wrote: »

Newcastle goal should have counted, it was definately over the line.

Impossible to call for me. You cannot say it was definitely over. Newcastle had their fair share of luck as we had two blatant penalties not given in the second half.

Bounty Hunter

Sunderland

Arsenal now really have to beat Wigan to get CL football and with the game only days after the cup final iirc that game could be too much for Wigan.

LuckyLloyd

Wigan are down imo.

DazMarz

I too feel Wigan have given themselves too much to do in too little time. The FA Cup Final will be a poisoned fixture for them. They'd have been better off not getting to it. They've flirted with disaster one time too many in the League and I think this is that one time when they will finally go down the plughole.

Paully D

I wouldn't be ruling Villa out yet. I agree, it's unlikely, but it's hardly ''embarrassing'' to suggest it will happen as I think I saw one poster say last night.

Take the below:



To get that:

Villa take 0 points from games against Chelsea (H) and Wigan (A). Likely, IMO.

Wigan take 6 points from Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H). Again, I'd predict that to happen, especially if it came down to that last game with it all on the line.

Sunderland to take 4 points from Stoke (H), Southampton (H), Spurs (A).

Newcastle to take 3 points from QPR (A) or Arsenal (H).

Norwich to take 3 points from WBA (H) and City (A).

As I said, unlikely, as form would suggest Norwich and Newcastle will draw their next game and Wigan will only take 4 from their two home games, but far stranger things have happened. No one can afford to take anything for granted yet.

legendary.xix

All I'll say about Villa is I think they'll be on 40 points going into the final game, i.e. they'll be beaten by Chelsea next Saturday. I think Wigan can beat Swansea at home on Tuesday night to move onto 38 points. That'll give Wigan a realistic shot at finishing above Villa going into the final day which is a game that can go either way. If Wigan do finish above Villa, the question for Villa is which clubs apart from Reading and QPR will finish below them?

I think Sunderland will get at least 4 points from their next two home games. That should see them safe on 41 points.

I'm not sure Newcastle will beat QPR (A) next week. If they fail to win and lose to Arsenal (H) on the last day, they'll be in trouble on 39 points.

Norwich have to beat West Brom next week to move onto 41 points. If they only draw and lose to Man City (A), they'll be on trouble as well on 39 points.

I think Southampton lose away to Sunderland but will get the result they need against Stoke (H).

Fulham are on 40 points. That could be their final points total as well after Liverpool (H) and Swansea (A).

I'm unsure of Stoke regards results in their next games. They might get a point off Sunderland (A) tomorrow night to move onto 41 points. That'll have them safe. If they lose tomorrow, similarly to Fulham, they'll likely be on 40 points on the final day but both have healthy goal differences and seem safe enough.

Johner

Wigan will stay up. They'll beat Swansea and Aston Villa.

MaroonAndGreen

I think now it looks like Norwich, Wigan or Villa (cos they still could lose to Wigan)

legendary.xix

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

I think now it looks like Norwich, Wigan or Villa (cos they still could lose to Wigan)

I'd expect a reaction from Norwich to yesterday's defeat. If they beat West Brom (H) next week, which they have to, they'll be safe. If not, they're in trouble.

Do you think Newcastle will beat QPR (A) next week? Anything less, they will be in trouble with only champions league chasing Arsenal to play on the last day.

F1ngers

Norwich

mike65 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056829791&page=5

mike65 wrote: »

Cos someone didn't spot the first one on this subject!

First thread is so out of date that it doesn't have all the teams in the relegation battle and should be locked for its irrelevance.

homerjay2005 wrote: »

Newcastle goal should have counted, it was definately over the line.

Winston Reid said it wasn't over the line, he gains nothing either way and is the only person that was there, on the line.


Hope Newcastle go down.
Go on the Wigan.

COYVB

Paully D wrote: »

I wouldn't be ruling Villa out yet. I agree, it's unlikely, but it's hardly ''embarrassing'' to suggest it will happen as I think I saw one poster say last night.gs have happened. No one can afford to take anything for granted yet.

What's embarrassing about it is that people are trying to convince themselves it's likely to happen. What you posted is, in its entirety, a very unlikely scenario to come off. It might, yes, but it's less likely than villa getting something from a chelsea side that could be guaranteed CL football at that stage (if they beat spurs midweek they'll essentially be uncatchable due to GD) and have a european final waiting around the corner for them, combined with a manager that knows he's off in summer and will want silverware.

Wigan are not a good team. They're where they are on merit, and I can't for the life of me understand why everyone expects this great form from them. They've got 1 win in their last 5 and they're leaking goals. Swansea will be disappointed not to beat them, arsenal could well murder them, and Villa are better away from home than at home. Wigan will do very well to get 4 points from the next 3 games, and it would be at odds with their form if they managed it

legendary.xix

COYVB wrote: »

What's embarrassing about it is that people are trying to convince themselves it's likely to happen. What you posted is, in its entirety, a very unlikely scenario to come off. It might, yes, but it's less likely than villa getting something from a chelsea side that could be guaranteed CL football at that stage (if they beat spurs midweek they'll essentially be uncatchable due to GD) and have a european final waiting around the corner for them, combined with a manager that knows he's off in summer and will want silverware.

Wigan are not a good team. They're where they are on merit, and I can't for the life of me understand why everyone expects this great form from them. They've got 1 win in their last 5 and they're leaking goals. Swansea will be disappointed not to beat them, arsenal could well murder them, and Villa are better away from home than at home. Wigan will do very well to get 4 points from the next 3 games, and it would be at odds with their form if they managed it

Not entirely. Wigan shot themselves in the foot against Spurs and were unlucky not to win. While they weren't so good yesterday it's a massive result that gives them hope and has dragged a few teams back into the relegation mix.

It's very realistic that they can beat Swansea (H) to move onto 38 points. That should see it in their hands, as well as Villa's, for who will finish above the other.

COYVB

It's no more realistic than them losing all 3 remaining games though

SantryRed

COYVB wrote: »

It's no more realistic than them losing all 3 remaining games though

I just hope Villa go down for your ridiculous condescending attitude now. Come on Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle, Southampton and Sunderland!

COYVB

SantryRed wrote: »

I just hope Villa go down for your ridiculous condescending attitude now. Come on Wigan, Norwich, Newcastle, Southampton and Sunderland!

It's the Wigan love in that baffles me. They're a poor side, and they're where they are on merit, yet if they did what people had been predicting here from about February onwards in terms of results, they'd have qualified for the bloody champions league. It's like, for some perverse reason, people genuinely believe they're going to win every game they play, and those same people completely disregard the fact that their form is not very good

Patser

COYVB - Please, please stop. You're tempting fate too much.

By this time next weekend everything will be much clearer but I reckon on Tuesday fans if almost half the premier league teams will suddenly be Welsh.

COYVB

Sadly, I don't think anything I post online affects the outcome of professional sports

Paully D

COYVB wrote: »

What's embarrassing about it is that people are trying to convince themselves it's likely to happen. What you posted is, in its entirety, a very unlikely scenario to come off. It might, yes, but it's less likely than villa getting something from a chelsea side that could be guaranteed CL football at that stage (if they beat spurs midweek they'll essentially be uncatchable due to GD) and have a european final waiting around the corner for them, combined with a manager that knows he's off in summer and will want silverware.

Wigan are not a good team. They're where they are on merit, and I can't for the life of me understand why everyone expects this great form from them. They've got 1 win in their last 5 and they're leaking goals. Swansea will be disappointed not to beat them, arsenal could well murder them, and Villa are better away from home than at home. Wigan will do very well to get 4 points from the next 3 games, and it would be at odds with their form if they managed it

Swansea have been on the beach since the League Cup final win though. 1 win (at home to Newcastle), 3 draws and 4 losses. They've packed up and gone home and Michu will be out due to injury. Wigan need a win and are at home where they are unbeaten in 3 (2 wins and a draw). At this stage of the season teams who need points continually get them against mid-table teams who have nothing to play for. I've seen it happen time and time again. The bookies are going Wigan 17/20, the draw 11/4 and Swansea 3/1, so there's the fact that they are rarely too far wrong also. I do favour them to pick up the three points.

I agree Arsenal will probably win comfortably against them but then we come to the final day of the season where, in such a big game, I'd favour the home team who have experience of such a pressured situation from previous years.

Wigan are not a good team, I agree, but they're hardly playing Manchester United in their two home games. They face a team on the beach and a fellow relegation candidate. I think there's a very good chance they pick up 6 points but of course I probably am fearing the worst due to my own team being involved in this scrap too.

We're probably all better off sitting back and just seeing how things pan out until this time next week when everything will look a lot clearer.

legendary.xix

Wigan's great escapes have become part of the Premier League season. They've looked out again this season but on Saturday have given themselves a decent chance to pull off another rescue. They have to be favourites to go down but they are capable of avoiding relegation. Two home wins against Swansea and Villa and they'll be safe. Any team will want it in their hands and they have.

Neil3030

Stoke

Paully D wrote: »

Wigan are not a good team, I agree, but they're hardly playing Manchester United in their two home games. They face a team on the beach and a fellow relegation candidate.

I was always under the assumption this game was in VP for some reason. This really makes things interesting imo...

Morzadec

Stoke

Let's not lose sight of the overall situation here - Wigan are still big favourites to go down.

Some people seem to be talking about wins against Swansea and Villa as certainties, others as likelihoods. Lets remember that it is more likely than not that Wigan will not get more than 4 points from their next 3 games.

2 points or less - Wigan are down

3 points - almost certainly down, though they might somehow escape on Goal Difference if Newcatsle and/or Norwich fail to pick up any points.

4 points - Now they have a chance, but have to hope one of Norwich, Newcastle or Sunderland don't pick up a win (or 2 draws).

All I will say is that this relegation battle has had a huge amount of unexpected twists since we all started making predictions, so who knows what might happen.

I think Newcastle is about the only team in the bottom half that I haven't at one point predicted to go down so maybe we can expect them for the drop!

Morzadec

Stoke

Betting Odds:

Wigan - Evs
Norwich - 11/4
Newcastle 5/1
Sunderland 8/1

The rest: Long enough that we probably shouldn't be mentioning them.

LuckyLloyd

Wigan are going to get beat on Tuesday. Poor side that deserve to go down on the basis of their form and football this year.

Wigan are 11/8 on betfair to be relegated. Great price.