3rd spot relegation ?

BUNK1982

Morzadec wrote: »

Betting Odds:

Wigan - Evs
Norwich - 11/4
Newcastle 5/1
Sunderland 8/1

The rest: Long enough that we probably shouldn't be mentioning them.

Nah - the bookies haven't a clue this time!

Sure Newcastle and Sunderland were at 33/1 ten days ago.... And I say that having looked to them for some cold comfort as a Villa fan for quite some time now!

Icaras

Wonder what the odds will be after tonight. Sunderland 1-0 down with 10 men and (from BBC sport) without their top 3 scorers for the rest of the season!

Paully D

Sunderland are down. No point trying to second guess it anymore.

It worked.

DazMarz

Sunderland ain't down yet... not by a long shot. Clawed their way back into this one and even though they're down to 10, they're pressing like mad. They're playing really well under DiCanio and I think they'll do enough to stay up in the end.

Paully D

Deleted User wrote: »

It worked.

Not really. A draw is a crap result and I can't see how we're going to score against Southampton. Spurs is a nailed on loss.

Odds:

Wigan 6/4
Norwich 7/2
Sunderland 5/1
Newcastle 5/1
Southampton 25/1
Villa 30/1
Fulham 55/1

homerjay2005

Stoke

Paully D wrote: »

Sunderland are down. No point trying to second guess it anymore.

i think tomorrow nights game, is the biggest left in the season. if Wigan win that, its between Newcastle and Norwich IMO, both wont get anything from last game of the season, so if either doesnt get something next weekend, they are gone.

Sunderland & Villa are safe now IMO, Sunderland have a 10 goal advantage and villa have 2 extra points. it could and prob will go down to goal difference which if its norwich or newcaslte, will be very interesting.

COYVB

homerjay2005 wrote: »

i think tomorrow nights game, is the biggest left in the season. if Wigan win that, its between Newcastle and Norwich IMO, both wont get anything from last game of the season, so if either doesnt get something next weekend, they are gone.

Sunderland & Villa are safe now IMO.

Not beyond the realms of possibility Sunderland lose their last 2 though. Southampton and Spurs aren't easy games. Though that said, Wigan won't get the points they need imo. They'll draw tomorrow and lose against Arsenal next week leaving them a minimum of 2 points from safety going into the last game

G.K.

Stoke have beaten any lingering fears now. Reckon Villa and Fulham are safe.

legendary.xix

Had a feeling Stoke would get a draw tonight. Sunderland have to win next weekend.

Paully D

homerjay2005 wrote: »

i think tomorrow nights game, is the biggest left in the season. if Wigan win that, its between Newcastle and Norwich IMO, both wont get anything from last game of the season, so if either doesnt get something next weekend, they are gone.

Sunderland & Villa are safe now IMO, Sunderland have a 10 goal advantage and villa have 2 extra points. it could and prob will go down to goal difference which if its norwich or newcaslte, will be very interesting.

How are Sunderland safe? We'll lose to Tottenham without question and we face Southampton where are top scoring player will be John O'Shea. We've also only won one game at home in 7 attempts. There's a huge possibility we fail to beat Southampton.

homerjay2005

Stoke

legendary.xix wrote: »

Had a feeling Stoke would get a draw tonight. Sunderland have to win next weekend.

a draw means every team below them has to win at least one game to go above them (and 2 wins for wigan). thats not going to be easy considering that Arsenal and City are two of the opposing teams on he final day.

4 teams have 21, 22 and 23 goal difference. its not too far off the mark to say that Sunderland, Norwich and Newcaslte will all lose on the final day, they probably will being realistic. i think the team thats in the bottom three next monday night, will be the team that goes down, unless for some reason, wigan and villa are 17th and 18th...it then becomes a shoot out/winner takes all in that game on last day.

Rekop dog

We need a Wigan win tomorrow to make it really interesting. Can't see it happening though, they've a terrible record in midweek league games, small squad cant cope with games in short succession.

CSF

I think it will be either Wigan or Newcastle. Obviously that changes massively if Norwich lose at the weekend but I don't think they will.

Copper_pipe

Aston Villa

Really hope that Wigan stay up!

Morzadec

Stoke

Looking at the table and the fixtures -

It could well be in Sunderland and Southampton's interests to play out a draw at the weekend if Wigan fail to win tomorrow.

It should see both sides safe.

Every point is absolutely crucial at this stage and I still think that 39 points and a healthy GD (in other words what Sunderland will be on with a draw in their next match) should be enough.

A massive draw for Sunderland tonight with 10 men.

As has been stated, a win for Wigan tomorrow will change everything.

Paully D

I really am astonished to see that you can get 7/1 with some bookmakers on Sunderland going down, but it makes me feel a lot more confident.

thebaz

delighted for John O'shea - I want wigan to drop , just to silence their outspoken chairman , martinez deserves to be a at a bigger club, rather than a small club , with rich owner.

keith16

Stoke

Actually don't really care if Wigan go down. Their stadium (whatever it's called this week) always seems empty. Just checked the stats there and they have the second lowest average attendance in the league.

dreamers75

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

Newcastle end out relegated according to my predictions.

Fr Tod Umptious

keith16 wrote: »

Actually don't really care if Wigan go down. Their stadium (whatever it's called this week) always seems empty. Just checked the stats there and they have the second lowest average attendance in the league.

interesting, I thought tjey would be the worst, who are below them.
They again full houses v big local clubs possibly skew that average figure

They certainly are a small market team however that are just where they are thanks to Whelan, and they will never grow seeing as rugby league is the top local sport amd they are surounded by very big football teams.

homerjay2005

Stoke

Paully D wrote: »

Not really. A draw is a crap result and I can't see how we're going to score against Southampton. Spurs is a nailed on loss.

likewise arsenal travel to Newcastle and Norwich go to City...villa pay wigan, so they both cannot win!! either way, 3 of the 4 teams around you are not picking up 3 points on the last day

that leaves next weeks fixtures....QPR V newcaslte, norwich v west brom and yourselves.

all things considered, i think you have the "best" game. a draw there and i reckon your safe.

The_Kew_Tour

I think Wigan will get result tonight.

Swansea have been awful since they win League Cup.

I think this calendar year they have only win couple if games.

Rekop dog

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I think Wigan will get result tonight.

Swansea have been awful since they win League Cup.

I think this calendar year they have only win couple if games.

They haven't been awful, just a very tough run of fixtures including City Chelsea Spurs and Arsenal. Wigan have only won 1 of their previous 27 midweek league games, that one win was against United but on the whole they're shocking when playing a 2nd game in a short period of time.

homerjay2005

Stoke

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

interesting, I thought tjey would be the worst, who are below them.
They again full houses v big local clubs possibly skew that average figure

its not even that, the stadium still has 1000's of empty seats, but alot of teams get 5,000 tickets in the away end and this certainly improves their average.

Morzadec

Stoke

dreamers75 wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

Newcastle end out relegated according to my predictions.

The thing is though, there is a big difference between what you or I might feel is the most likely situation and whether that is more likely than all the other situations (if that makes sense).

I made the same mistake a few weeks ago where I did the predictor and had Villa going down on Goal Difference, so tipped them for the drop. But I didn't stop and think that that was just the most likely scenario (in my opinion at the time) of one of many possible scenarios (most of which would have seen Wigan going down).

Wigan are still favourites despite your own valid opinion that a scenario of Newcastle going down is the most likely, as way more plausible scenarios play out with Wigan going down.

Xavi6

Hopefully Wigan win tonight to give themselves hope and then they'll be too concerned about the league to play well on Saturday :cool:

LuckyLloyd

The faith in Wigan is rather bizarre really.

0ph0rce0

Norwich

this could be fun,

if teams in the top half loose the rest and the bottom win could be interesting.

i might have looked wrong but anyone from 9th to 18th can go down, possibly.

No?

jem

Norwich

Did the bbc one,
I have newcastle going down on GD by 2 goals, that is with wigan winning tonight 1-0.
Think if they dont they are gone.

Morzadec

Stoke

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

this could be fun,

if teams in the top half loose the rest and the bottom win could be interesting.

i might have looked wrong but anyone from 9th to 18th can go down, possibly.

No?

I don't think so (due to combinations of teams playing each other). I don't think it's possible for all teams below 9th to reach 43 points (what Swansea are on at the moment).

Because Sunderland and Southampton play each other it is not possible for both teams to surpass 42 points. If they draw Sunderland can only reach 42. If Sunderland win Southampton can only reach 42.

Therefore:

Swansea and West Ham are already mathematically safe.

Every team from 12th down (including Stoke and Fulham) are still mathematically in danger.

homerjay2005

Stoke

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The faith in Wigan is rather bizarre really.

they have a decent history of avoiding the drop, picked up a huge 3 points last week and can move out of the bottom 3 tonight with a win at home. of course its easier said than done, but 4 points from their last 3 games could keep them up i believe.

the fact that they play villa at home on last day, who should be safe by then is vital.

jem wrote: »

Did the bbc one,
I have newcastle going down on GD by 2 goals, that is with wigan winning tonight 1-0.
Think if they dont they are gone.

a draw tonight, means that wigan have a get out of jail clause on the last day against villa at home. Norwich, Sunderland and Newcastle are unlikely to pick up any points on the last day, especially Norwich and Sunderland.

keith16

Stoke

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

interesting, I thought tjey would be the worst, who are below them.
They again full houses v big local clubs possibly skew that average figure

They certainly are a small market team however that are just where they are thanks to Whelan, and they will never grow seeing as rugby league is the top local sport amd they are surounded by very big football teams.

QPR bottom based on numbers alone. However , Wigan are comfortably bottom in terms of % full of available capacity. On average, 75% of the ground is full.

Johner

I have Norwich going down on goal difference after doing the predictor.

KERSPLAT!

Norwich

75% doesn't sound too bad, it usually looks only half full if even. I want them to stay up all the same! 3 points tonight and 3 against Villa will be enough, anything less and I'd say they're gone.

irelandrover

Princess Petulia Pissy Pants wrote: »

75% doesn't sound too bad, it usually looks only half full if even. I want them to stay up all the same! 3 points tonight and 3 against Villa will be enough, anything less and I'd say they're gone.

If you look at it as a percentage of population then they have pretty good attendances. They are a small town with a lot of big sides in the surrounding areas.

However I still think they deserve to go down just for the amount of times they have been involved in the relegation fight at this point.

KERSPLAT!

Norwich

Meh, the only people that deserve to go down are the teams in 20th, 19th and 18th after the last whistle is blown IMO. Attendances or last years position shouldn't come into it

greendom

Sunderland

irelandrover wrote: »

If you look at it as a percentage of population then they have pretty good attendances. They are a small town with a lot of big sides in the surrounding areas.

However I still think they deserve to go down just for the amount of times they have been involved in the relegation fight at this point.

Also worth bearing in mind that Wigan is far more a rugby town than a football one - indeed Wigan Warriors share the stadium with the football team.

jem

Norwich

homerjay2005 wrote: »

they have a decent history of avoiding the drop, picked up a huge 3 points last week and can move out of the bottom 3 tonight with a win at home. of course its easier said than done, but 4 points from their last 3 games could keep them up i believe.

the fact that they play villa at home on last day, who should be safe by then is vital.



a draw tonight, means that wigan have a get out of jail clause on the last day against villa at home. Norwich, Sunderland and Newcastle are unlikely to pick up any points on the last day, especially Norwich and Sunderland.

I did it on the basis that they would draw with villa on last day, cant see wigan winning that one so close after the cup final. Thats why I think they need to win tonight.
Sunderland in bodder though with injuries and suspensions.

thebaz

keith16 wrote: »

QPR bottom based on numbers alone. However , Wigan are comfortably bottom in terms of % full of available capacity. On average, 75% of the ground is full.

Loftus road has a great atmosphere , anytime I was ther , Wigan on the other hand is what it is , a rugby league town , with a rich chairman

KERSPLAT!

Norwich

Here we go, IMO Wigan need all 3 points tonight and 3 from Villa. They'll probably shock everyone and win all 3 games including Arsenal away

Johner

Good crowd there tonight.

Copper_pipe

Aston Villa

Have a 10er on Sunderland to go down at 6/1

pavb2

Think Wigan, Norwich or N'Castle in that order most likely to go

KERSPLAT!

Norwich

Wigan passing well for the most part but little to no penetration

Montroseee

Stoke

Wigan looking like an unstoppable force at the DW.

ahnowbrowncow

Newcastle

I think the best for result would be a draw

Montroseee

Stoke

Wigan need a bit more penetration

KERSPLAT!

Norwich

WIGAN 1-0!!!!!!!!!!!!!1