Dead Cat Bounce

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

Ok fine, but yet we have houses in SCD continuing to rise and being snapped up by people, so where is this money from, there's job areas in Ireland that are booming, IT being one.

I haven't been affected by the bust in fact I don't know too many people outside the building industry that have been. Even those guys now have work on and it's only increasing.

Sometimes listening to the news you'd swear we were all fecked, but there's a lot of people who aren't and by the looks of things they've stopped waiting and are making their move.

People affected by the collapse: builders, public sector workers, bank officials, service workers serving any of the above, solicitors specialising in property, accountants, and God know how many other people. The IT sector is not going to save the economy; it's nowhere near big enough. Google are importing staff from around the world; we simply don't have enough native IT professionals. And are Brazilian and Swedish IT workers signing up for mortgages?

StillWaters

desertcircus wrote: »

People affected by the collapse: builders, public sector workers, bank officials, service workers serving any of the above, solicitors specialising in property, accountants, and God know how many other people. The IT sector is not going to save the economy; it's nowhere near big enough. Google are importing staff from around the world; we simply don't have enough native IT professionals. And are Brazilian and Swedish IT workers signing up for mortgages?

I dont think Accountants have been too affected! There are many sectors that were insulated, and others that are picking up now. Yes we are left with some hangovers from the recession, and good governance will be needed to manage the recovery.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

I dont think Accountants have been too affected! There are many sectors that were insulated, and others that are picking up now. Yes we are left with some hangovers from the recession, and good governance will be needed to manage the recovery.

Those that are insulated can only be insulated as long as everyone else pays extra. I'm not sure that situation can be relied on to continue.

Galego

StillWaters wrote: »

I dont think Accountants have been too affected!

Yes we have!!

StillWaters

Galego wrote: »

Yes we have!!

You need to move into the PIP space!

desertcircus

StillWaters wrote: »

You need to move into the PIP space!

Over twenty billion euro a year of mortgage transactions have ceased to exist. If there's been no effect on accountancy, then something is up.

desertcircus

StillWaters wrote: »

I dont think Accountants have been too affected! There are many sectors that were insulated, and others that are picking up now. Yes we are left with some hangovers from the recession, and good governance will be needed to manage the recovery.

We have an effective unemployment rate of 23%, and vast swathes of the remaining 77% have been hit with shrinking pensions, pay cuts, hiring freezes and worse conditions. More than one in ten of our mortgages are in arrears, and God knows what proportion are in negative equity. The recovery is some distance away.

StillWaters

desertcircus wrote: »

We have an effective unemployment rate of 23%, and vast swathes of the remaining 77% have been hit with shrinking pensions, pay cuts, hiring freezes and worse conditions. More than one in ten of our mortgages are in arrears, and God knows what proportion are in negative equity. The recovery is some distance away.

Thats not what the figures say. Or the Economists.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

Thats not what the figures say. Or the Economists.

Wow - which figures are you looking at? Do you have any idea what our debt/GDP ratio will be in 3 years time? And we'll still be borrowing 3% GDP per annum then! And that is if things go to plan!! :eek:

And - astonishingly - if you strip out the building/property sectors from our economic growth post 2000 (or so), we were only growing at approx. 1% per annum during the height of the Tiger Bubble.

We could be looking for another bailout in a couple of years.

The Spider

Recovery is under way, fact that there are so many people looking to buy in SCD shows that. It'll start here then spread to the rest of the city as people realise they can't buy there they'll buy in the next best spot, and so on and so on until it's everywhere in the city an into commuter towns around Dublin, will it go further out? Who knows, but unless there's some huge employment opportunities I couldn't see it, the days of random estates up and down the country are over.

On a side note all the good areas on the north side are seeing increasing sales too, Clontarf, pormarnock, Malahide etc.

Anynama141

The Spider wrote: »

Recovery is under way, fact that there are so many people looking to buy in SCD shows that.

Recovery to what - the 'correct' bubble prices?

People amaze me. They recognise now that prices were crazy, and now they are waiting for them to return to that level. Good luck with that. I think prices now are still a bit expensive looking. Sure, in a normal environment you would say they are currently at fair value - but this is NOT a normal environment. The levels of personal and public debt are at all-time highs, we are running a €10 billion euro deficit, the government is borrowing hand-over-fist and the economy is stuck at low levels of growth.

We are fubarred. So today's 'fair' prices might look like very toppy prices in a few years. You can safely ignore what is happening in the short term to a few hundred houses in a few square miles of Dublin - it's as relevant to the Irish property market in general as what is going on in Edinburgh or Malmo.

The Spider

Anynama141 wrote: »

Recovery to what - the 'correct' bubble prices?

People amaze me. They recognise now that prices were crazy, and now they are waiting for them to return to that level. Good luck with that. I think prices now are still a bit expensive looking. Sure, in a normal environment you would say they are currently at fair value - but this is NOT a normal environment. The levels of personal and public debt are at all-time highs, we are running a €10 billion euro deficit, the government is borrowing hand-over-fist and the economy is stuck at low levels of growth.

We are fubarred. So today's 'fair' prices might look like very toppy prices in a few years. You can safely ignore what is happening in the short term to a few hundred houses in a few square miles of Dublin - it's as relevant to the Irish property market in general as what is going on in Edinburgh or Malmo.

Dunno about that, 2008-2011 people were definitely scared holding back whatever, there been a change since 2012, I know from even just talking to people, most people who are thinking about it are jumping now, but a lot of them have missed the boat in the areas they want.

I remember the first time all this kicked off, roughly around 96 I think was when property prices started to rise out of my reach anyway at the time, I remember going to take a look at a house in Ranelagh to share in, three story gorgeous house and this girl told me she'd paid 80 grand for it, which I thought was insane, i was earning 12 grand a year ( little did I know).

I watched house prices rise and rise, I always rented, truth be told I had no interest, then I watched them rocket from 2003, still didnt buy sites like the property pin were correct as far as I was concerned, then it all came tumbling down around 2007.

The difference now is, that it feels like 1995-96 again, back then there were no jobs either, late eighties early nineties in Ireland was unemployment central, however things started to feel slightly better around 96.

It feels like that to me now, I personally think that if you're gonna buy, nows the time, again I could be wrong but I can only go on personal opinion.

Sometimes you can over analyse and find yourself left in the cold, I think you should follow your gut, I it's telling you not to buy then don't, if it's telling you there's a chance you could miss your chance, well that's something you'll have to consider.

Anynama141

The Spider wrote: »

The difference now is, that it feels like 1995-96 again, back then there were no jobs either, late eighties early nineties in Ireland was unemployment central, however things started to feel slightly better around 96.

Feels more like 1977 to me. Only worse.

The Spider wrote: »

Sometimes you can over analyse and find yourself left in the cold, I think you should follow your gut, I it's telling you not to buy then don't, if it's telling you there's a chance you could miss your chance, well that's something you'll have to consider.

Last time I over-analysed this stuff was in 2003-4. I saved about €250,000 by doing so.

I'm sure there are loads of people stuck in tiny apartments they can't sell or houses 2 hours commute from their place of employment who bought because they were afraid to 'miss the boat'.

Norwesterner

by the seaside wrote: »

I'm an interested observer form England, and also with family in Spain. What appears to have happened in Spain is that the banks were reluctant to repossess or would repossess but not put on market. My mum has just bought a house out there (not new build and in an established village location) that the bank put on at E50k and sold to her for E39k - very significant write down on mortgage debt we can assume and a big drop in value.

Anecdotally, what appears to be happening is a shift from a banking solvency crisis to a liquidity crises. During the solvency crisis phase, the banks preferred to keep the property / debts on their books at an inflated property value. However, as it turns into a liquidity crisis, the banks must raise cash and the properties go for the true (fire sale) market value.

As I say, I'm overseas but visit Ireland often enough. As long as the banks in Ireland have a solvency crisis but not a liquidity crisis, they will not repossess as this will exacerbate the solvency problem (not in reality as the values applied to distressed mortgage properties are fictional). It will need to move into the liquidity crisis stage, I think before there is action. Will the state / troika be willing and able to prevent a liquidity crisis? Is there no danger of this because the economy / banking system can limp along as it is? Have I got this completely wrong?

Between 80-100 repos every DAY in Spain.
10 repos in the whole of Dublin last YEAR.
Which one will comes out of the housing crisis first?

Norwesterner

Member of my family bought a house (Donegal-Derry border) in the late 90's before the Boom, for 120k punts.
Neighbouring house in the same street on sale today for 60k euros.
Thats gotta be greater than Morgan Kelly's dire predictions.
Lingering on the market for some time now.

StillWaters

Anynama141 wrote: »

Feels more like 1977 to me. Only worse.

Last time I over-analysed this stuff was in 2003-4. I saved about €250,000 by doing so.

I'm sure there are loads of people stuck in tiny apartments they can't sell or houses 2 hours commute from their place of employment who bought because they were afraid to 'miss the boat'.

Nope, definitely reminiscent of the mid 90s. I wasn't working etc in the 70s, so can only compare on paper, and I really can't see your similarities.

Noone here is arguing there was a housing bubble. You think we are still in it? We think the bottom was end 2011, start 2012. Only time will tell.

Norwesterner

StillWaters wrote: »

Nope, definitely reminiscent of the mid 90s. I wasn't working etc in the 70s, so can only compare on paper, and I really can't see your similarities.

Noone here is arguing there was a housing bubble. You think we are still in it? We think the bottom was end 2011, start 2012. Only time will tell.

In 1990 I was earning over 400 punts after tax per week as a bricklayer just outside Dublin.
My rent was 35 punts per week.
Convert to euros and add inflation and tell me which period was better.
400 punts is over 500 euros.
A brickie today would be glad to get 500 euros after tax a week in a stable job.
Yet rent has increased 10Xfold.
Thats almost 25 years ago.
Imagine if you were to learn,if 25 years time, that your son or daughter
was earning less and paying more than you are today.
I was much better off in the 90's than today.
Of course we didn't have mass immigration in those days and hundreds applying for the same job

by the seaside

The Spider wrote: »

Dunno about that, 2008-2011 people were definitely scared holding back whatever, there been a change since 2012, I know from even just talking to people, most people who are thinking about it are jumping now, but a lot of them have missed the boat in the areas they want.

I remember the first time all this kicked off, roughly around 96 I think was when property prices started to rise out of my reach anyway at the time, I remember going to take a look at a house in Ranelagh to share in, three story gorgeous house and this girl told me she'd paid 80 grand for it, which I thought was insane, i was earning 12 grand a year ( little did I know).

I watched house prices rise and rise, I always rented, truth be told I had no interest, then I watched them rocket from 2003, still didnt buy sites like the property pin were correct as far as I was concerned, then it all came tumbling down around 2007.

The difference now is, that it feels like 1995-96 again, back then there were no jobs either, late eighties early nineties in Ireland was unemployment central, however things started to feel slightly better around 96.

It feels like that to me now, I personally think that if you're gonna buy, nows the time, again I could be wrong but I can only go on personal opinion.

Sometimes you can over analyse and find yourself left in the cold, I think you should follow your gut, I it's telling you not to buy then don't, if it's telling you there's a chance you could miss your chance, well that's something you'll have to consider.

What do you / others think about the next chapter(s) in the Eurozone crisis and how that might affect the Irish economy at large and specifically housing market?

StillWaters

Norwesterner wrote: »

In 1990 I was earning over 400 punts after tax per week as a bricklayer just outside Dublin.
My rent was 35 punts per week.
Convert to euros and add inflation and tell me which period was better.

That was shocking wages for 1990. Over 4 times mine. Was there a huge shortage of brickies or was there union rates at play there?

The Spider

StillWaters wrote: »

That was shocking wages for 1990. Over 4 times mine. Was there a huge shortage of brickies or was there union rates at play there?

Agree those wages sound very high for 1990, roughly about 1200 a week in today's money, for a brickie?

gaius c

StillWaters wrote: »

Nope, definitely reminiscent of the mid 90s. I wasn't working etc in the 70s, so can only compare on paper, and I really can't see your similarities.

Noone here is arguing there was a housing bubble. You think we are still in it? We think the bottom was end 2011, start 2012. Only time will tell.

So we had an enormous housing bubble (quite possibly the largest in human history) that lasted over a decade, completely overshot historical norms & then some but when it burst, it only undershot by a few percentage points with increases after only six years with the IMF still at the door and high unemployment persisting? Sorry mate, I don't buy that for a second.

cson

Had a little chuckle to myself at the post saying that if you haven't bought in SCD by now, you've missed the boat.

I wonder the effect on prices should repo's start happening and/or NAMA release some of their considerable property portfolio onto the market.

I'm pretty confident the boat will be in drydock for some time yet.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

So we had an enormous housing bubble (quite possibly the largest in human history) that lasted over a decade, completely overshot historical norms & then some but when it burst, it only undershot by a few percentage points with increases after only six years with the IMF still at the door and high unemployment persisting? Sorry mate, I don't buy that for a second.

Housing bubble, doesn't matter vast majority will get debt write offs and be gagged, it's already happening, this will prevent large scale repossessions, which would depress prices further, whether you like it or not the only ones who want that are renters.

Debt will be written off for homeowners and the banks by the ECB or the repayment terms will be lengthened to a point where it doesn't matter (Germany only finished paying it's war reparations for world war 1 in the past few years)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315869/Germany-end-World-War-One-reparations-92-years-59m-final-payment.html

Read below as to why no one who matters in the economy wants prices to stay low.

http://www.mn2020.org/issues-that-matter/economic-development/rising-home-prices-mostly-good

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=151&sid=24133716

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/25/rising-home-prices-brighten-economic-outlook/

I could go on, but the fact is everyone knows rising house prices are good for an economy, yes there are some losers, like renters, first time buyers etc. but prices rising on the biggest investment the vast majority of the population will ever make is a good thing, and no a house isn't just about shelter, property never was.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

On a side note all the good areas on the north side are seeing increasing sales too, Clontarf, pormarnock, Malahide etc.

Source?

The Spider

gurramok wrote: »

Source?

Anecdotal really, browse through this section on the propertypin:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewforum.php?f=10

You'll see it being mentioned again I stress good areas on the Northside.

One to look at:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59037

And this:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59036

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Anecdotal really, browse through this section on the propertypin:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewforum.php?f=10

You'll see it being mentioned again I stress good areas on the Northside.

One to look at:

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59037

Thought you were going to quote the PPR rather than some internet radomners for your source.
Not helpful for your analysis, there *might* be interest in those middle upper to upper class areas, that does not necessarily translate to huge transaction sales unless the PPR shows it as proof.

The Spider

gurramok wrote: »

Thought you were going to quote the PPR rather than some internet radomners for your source.
Not helpful for your analysis, there *might* be interest in those middle upper to upper class areas, that does not necessarily translate to huge transaction sales unless the PPR shows it as proof.

Ha we're all internet randomers, however you can wait for proof, I'm pointing towards general sentiment, and personally I was looking at buying in Clontarf around May, June last year, we were looking at 4 bed houses below 375 and there were roughly around 15-20 at any one time, now there is 1 that needs a lot of work, the houses we saw needed a little bit of work but were generally grand to move into.

Like I say we looked in all the decent areas on the Dublin east coast, from Sutton down to Shankill, the prices that we were looking at are non existent now.

There was one massive house in Cabinteely (Southside granted) with a huge back garden, the estate agent told us the owner would take 340, it was advertised at 355, not a hope of that now.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Ha we're all internet randomers, however you can wait for proof, I'm pointing towards general sentiment, and personally I was looking at buying in Clontarf around May, June last year, we were looking at 4 bed houses below 375 and there were roughly around 15-20 at any one time, now there is 1 that needs a lot of work, the houses we saw needed a little bit of work but were generally grand to move into.

Like I say we looked in all the decent areas on the Dublin east coast, from Sutton down to Shankill, the prices that we were looking at are non existent now.

There was one massive house in Cabinteely (Southside granted) with a huge back garden, the estate agent told us the owner would take 340, it was advertised at 355, not a hope of that now.

You may desire to live on the coast in a big house, many others like myself do not. The nearest location wise I would live near the coast would be the city centre if that counts.

Where is this general sentiment? I don't see it on the PPR for 2013 so far from sales, are you trying to say there is massive interest in "good areas" with queues for viewings?

Well the Pin(which you quoted) does debunk that so called bounce in SCD with a lovely chart.
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58852&start=300

The Spider

gurramok wrote: »

You may desire to live on the coast in a big house, many others like myself do not. The nearest location wise I would live near the coast would be the city centre if that counts.

Where is this general sentiment? I don't see it on the PPR for 2013 so far from sales, are you trying to say there is massive interest in "good areas" with queues for viewings?

Well the Pin(which you quoted) does debunk that so called bounce in SCD with a lovely chart.
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58852&start=300

I don't have any thing in the game here as far as Dublin Southside or Northside is concerned, I bought in a town fifty miles outside and commute.

Debunking is questionable as the question is, is it a dead cat bounce or a recovery, the comment directly under the chart points to recovery, which I tend to agree with. Like I say it'll be many years before that even comes near where I bought, and the reason we bought there was because we couldn't see any value in the Dublin market, of course it helps that we're both not from Dublin so moving out was an easier decision.

lima

80k savings and mortgage approval since last year and I'm still willing to hold out 2-3 years until a repo appears that suits.. It's only going one way