Dead Cat Bounce

davet82

lima wrote: »

80k savings and mortgage approval since last year and I'm still willing to hold out 2-3 years until a repo appears that suits.. It's only going one way

a lot depends on where you are looking, if there are a lot of BTLs in the area you are looking I reckon

I think family homes will be so long and drawn out that it will have little impact on prices

this is just my opinion

I've read professional opinion that we are in line with the Japanese property bust in drops and a bump in the market that we have seen in the last 9 months is consistent with japan. if the time lines remain the same we can expect another cliff by the end of the summer, this info was take from an article David McWilliams penned last year so maybe things have changed.

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Housing bubble, doesn't matter vast majority will get debt write offs and be gagged, it's already happening, this will prevent large scale repossessions, which would depress prices further, whether you like it or not the only ones who want that are renters.

Debt will be written off for homeowners and the banks by the ECB or the repayment terms will be lengthened to a point where it doesn't matter (Germany only finished paying it's war reparations for world war 1 in the past few years)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315869/Germany-end-World-War-One-reparations-92-years-59m-final-payment.html

Read below as to why no one who matters in the economy wants prices to stay low.

http://www.mn2020.org/issues-that-matter/economic-development/rising-home-prices-mostly-good

http://www.ksl.com/?nid=151&sid=24133716

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/09/25/rising-home-prices-brighten-economic-outlook/

I could go on, but the fact is everyone knows rising house prices are good for an economy, yes there are some losers, like renters, first time buyers etc. but prices rising on the biggest investment the vast majority of the population will ever make is a good thing, and no a house isn't just about shelter, property never was.

You're trying too hard mate. Less is more sometimes.

Edit: also 2006 called and wants their cliches back.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

You're trying too hard mate. Less is more sometimes.

Ha, as a dissenter in a minority I have to try hard....

power101

This site is very good for tracking the house prices across Ireland. He's being doing it since 2011 and only has prices going back till then. According to one graph the national average for a house is just under 200k since this month. In Dublin ( the county with the highest asking prices) the price of a house has gone under 300k for the first time. It dropeed 13000 from March. One of the biggest monthly drops on record.

http://www.daftdrop.com/#!graphView

Scroll down and you'll see the trendline is still going down. Northern Ireland bottomed out around November 2012.

The graphs also show you how many decreases and increases in house prices on daft there are. It shows there has been no change in increases in houseprices over the past 2 years however the amount of decreases has fallen. I would suggest the reason for this is people are much realistic with their selling prices to begin with now as they don't want to wait for years for their houses to sell.

Lots of information there for everyone to look at anyway and form their own opinions.

Anynama141

The Spider wrote: »

Housing bubble, doesn't matter vast majority will get debt write offs and be gagged, it's already happening, this will prevent large scale repossessions, which would depress prices further, whether you like it or not the only ones who want that are renters.

If people get debt write-offs, who do you think the money is going to come from to fund them?

The taxpayer. The taxpayer will be hit again, reducing the amount of money in everybody's pockets. What effect do you think that will have on property prices?

The Spider wrote: »

I could go on, but the fact is everyone knows rising house prices are good for an economy, yes there are some losers, like renters, first time buyers etc. but prices rising on the biggest investment the vast majority of the population will ever make is a good thing, and no a house isn't just about shelter, property never was.

This is a load of total old bo**ocks I'm afraid. And I teach this stuff for a living.

Again, can you explain why increasing the cost of one of the most basic and most expensive human needs is a good thing for the economy?

by the seaside

power101 wrote: »

Lots of information there for everyone to look at anyway and form their own opinions.

Can't we just selectively read and interpret it to validate the opinions we already have?

Anynama141

The Spider wrote: »

Ha we're all internet randomers, however you can wait for proof, I'm pointing towards general sentiment, and personally I was looking at buying in Clontarf around May, June last year, we were looking at 4 bed houses below 375 and there were roughly around 15-20 at any one time, now there is 1 that needs a lot of work, the houses we saw needed a little bit of work but were generally grand to move into.

Like I say we looked in all the decent areas on the Dublin east coast, from Sutton down to Shankill, the prices that we were looking at are non existent now.

There was one massive house in Cabinteely (Southside granted) with a huge back garden, the estate agent told us the owner would take 340, it was advertised at 355, not a hope of that now.

No offence, but you sound just like an estate agent trying to convince people to panic buy. You seem to have little or no understanding of either basic economics or the disastrous situation Ireland finds itself in. The fact that we still see stories like this in the paper every day shows the ridiculousness of your claims:

Finance Minister Michael Noonan's decision to liquidate the former Anglo Irish Bank in January will lead to a tougher Budget if a feared €2bn to €3bn shortfall in the value of assets is realised.
The Department of Finance has confirmed that once the valuation process is concluded by the special liquidator and a shortfall in the value of the loan book is found, then the taxpayer will have to meet that shortfall out of day-to-day spending.

The Spider

Anynama141 wrote: »

If people get debt write-offs, who do you think the money is going to come from to fund them?

The taxpayer. The taxpayer will be hit again, reducing the amount of money in everybody's pockets. What effect do you think that will have on property prices?

This is a load of total old bo**ocks I'm afraid. And I teach this stuff for a living.

Again, can you explain why increasing the cost of one of the most basic and most expensive human needs is a good thing for the economy?

Oh I'm not an estate agent, but again politically it's going to have to happen, and as I've said previously people can't pay those kind of debts, no government can expect to survive telling people they're basically on the hook forever, won't wash with the electorate.

And yes the taxpayer will have to pay, however as I'd mentioned earlier using the example of Germany paying back war reperations which were only finally paid for world war 1 in 2010 a debt to the ecb can be strung out until inflation eventually eats it.

If it's good enough for the Germans then it's good enough for us.

Norwesterner

power101 wrote: »

This site is very good for tracking the house prices across Ireland. He's being doing it since 2011 and only has prices going back till then. According to one graph the national average for a house is just under 200k since this month. In Dublin ( the county with the highest asking prices) the price of a house has gone under 300k for the first time. It dropeed 13000 from March. One of the biggest monthly drops on record.

http://www.daftdrop.com/#!graphView

Scroll down and you'll see the trendline is still going down. Northern Ireland bottomed out around November 2012.

The graphs also show you how many decreases and increases in house prices on daft there are. It shows there has been no change in increases in houseprices over the past 2 years however the amount of decreases has fallen. I would suggest the reason for this is people are much realistic with their selling prices to begin with now as they don't want to wait for years for their houses to sell.

Lots of information there for everyone to look at anyway and form their own opinions.

Prices in "Northern Ireland" have fallen a lot since Nov 2012.
For some reason DAFT are not advertising as much Northern property as before, (they have just 2 properties for sale in the whole of Derry City which has a population greater than Limerick).
So using DAFT for Northern price drops in not a good barometer.
Property collapse in the North has been the worst in the World.

Norwesterner

The Spider wrote: »

Oh I'm not an estate agent, but again politically it's going to have to happen, and as I've said previously people can't pay those kind of debts, no government can expect to survive telling people they're basically on the hook forever, won't wash with the electorate.

And yes the taxpayer will have to pay, however as I'd mentioned earlier using the example of Germany paying back war reperations which were only finally paid for world war 1 in 2010 a debt to the ecb can be strung out until inflation eventually eats it.

If it's good enough for the Germans then it's good enough for us.

Germany has a functioning economy and a manageable welfare system.

StillWaters

The Spider wrote: »

Oh I'm not an estate agent, but again politically it's going to have to happen, and as I've said previously people can't pay those kind of debts, no government can expect to survive telling people they're basically on the hook forever, won't wash with the electorate.

Being accused of being an Estate Agent is standard for contrarian bulls on here.

I think most people are looking at it from a fairly right wing economic view and totally ignoring the political machinations. Much as people sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase want firesales of NAMA properties and loans in arrears. It just won't happen.

Norwesterner

StillWaters wrote: »

Being accused of being an Estate Agent is standard for contrarian bulls on here.

I think most people are looking at it from a fairly right wing economic view and totally ignoring the political machinations. Much as people sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase want firesales of NAMA properties and loans in arrears. It just won't happen.

So what will become of NAMA properties in your opinion?

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

Being accused of being an Estate Agent is standard for contrarian bulls on here.

I think most people are looking at it from a fairly right wing economic view and totally ignoring the political machinations. Much as people sitting on the sidelines waiting to purchase want firesales of NAMA properties and loans in arrears. It just won't happen.

And how do you think the debt write-offs will be funded? And if the billions more needed come out of your pay-packet, what is that going to do to property prices?

(we already hear so much about people having no money: what happens when they have less?)

Norwesterner

Anynama141 wrote: »

And how do you think the debt write-offs will be funded? And if the billions more needed come out of your pay-packet, what is that going to do to property prices?

(we already hear so much about people having no money: what happens when they have less?)

Also;
Who in their right mind will continue paying their mortgages if there are "write -downs" available.
Where will Banks get the money to provide new mortgages to young couples or start-up loans for businesses.....if there's no money coming in from existing debtors.

StillWaters

Nama stock will be sold in an orderly manner, much like it is being done currently. NAMA turning a profit for the tax payer and performing better than expectations. As for debt write offs, there will be debt for equity, restructuring etc, there won't be much debt write offs by domestic banks. Of course there has been debt write offs by the exiting banks but that doesn't affect the tax payer in Ireland.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

Nama stock will be sold in an orderly manner, much like it is being done currently. NAMA turning a profit for the tax payer and performing better than expectations. As for debt write offs, there will be debt for equity, restructuring etc, there won't be much debt write offs by domestic banks. Of course there has been debt write offs by the exiting banks but that doesn't affect the tax payer in Ireland.

So you are saying there will be debt write-offs for tens of thousands of people (or more) but it won't cost us anything?

OK.

StillWaters

Anynama141 wrote: »

So you are saying there will be debt write-offs for tens of thousands of people (or more) but it won't cost us anything?

OK.

I'm saying there will be political realism, kicking the can indefinitely. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

I'm saying there will be political realism, kicking the can indefinitely. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Political realism entails paying for something.

Who pays? The future property buyer, right?

StillWaters

Anynama141 wrote: »

Political realism entails paying for something.

Who pays? The future property buyer, right?

When supply of any good is restricted, the future purchaser pays. There is no other electorally palatable solution. If you have one, I'd love to hear it.

Norwesterner

StillWaters wrote: »

Nama stock will be sold in an orderly manner, much like it is being done currently. NAMA turning a profit for the tax payer and performing better than expectations. As for debt write offs, there will be debt for equity, restructuring etc, there won't be much debt write offs by domestic banks. Of course there has been debt write offs by the exiting banks but that doesn't affect the tax payer in Ireland.

Orderly manner.
They have 4 billion in stock in the North.
In the last 3 years they've sold 90 million.
That leaves 3 billion 910 million.
At that rate they'll have got rid of this in about 120 years time.
(Not including more stock being added on top of this every year).
Also, each year they lie unsold they depreciate in value.
NAMA missed the boat by about two years and will end up knocking down most of the housing.
People are not going to buy NAMA housing unless it's at firesale prices.
Why on Earth would they?
Profit making? Don't make me laugh.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

When supply of any good is restricted, the future purchaser pays. There is no other electorally palatable solution. If you have one, I'd love to hear it.

I'm not talking about restricted supply: there are 300,000 empty properties in the country.

I'm talking about the cost of writing off debt, which you seem to think will be free. If it was free, wouldn't the government have done it years ago already? :rolleyes:

StillWaters

Anynama141 wrote: »

I'm not talking about restricted supply: there are 300,000 empty properties in the country.

I'm talking about the cost of writing off debt, which you seem to think will be free. If it was free, wouldn't the government have done it years ago already? :rolleyes:

Can I ask you to stop with the faces? I'm not a teenager and find it annoying to contribute when emoticons are used so freely. It's like looking at a teenagers Facebook page and its a bit insulting.

Anynama141

StillWaters wrote: »

Can I ask you to stop with the faces? I'm not a teenager and find it annoying to contribute when emoticons are used so freely. It's like looking at a teenagers Facebook page and its a bit insulting.

Perhaps a polite email to the administrators would see the facility withdrawn? If they aren't to be used, they shouldn't be provided.

lima

StillWaters wrote: »

Can I ask you to stop with the faces? I'm not a teenager and find it annoying to contribute when emoticons are used so freely. It's like looking at a teenagers Facebook page and its a bit insulting.

Do you look at teenagers facebook's much then?

:rolleyes:

Anyway, as I said I am waiting in the sidelines until repossessions and nama enable more stock to become available. If they don't, then meh.. Houses are overprices right now.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Recovery is under way, fact that there are so many people looking to buy in SCD shows that. It'll start here then spread to the rest of the city as people realise they can't buy there they'll buy in the next best spot, and so on and so on until it's everywhere in the city an into commuter towns around Dublin, will it go further out? Who knows, but unless there's some huge employment opportunities I couldn't see it, the days of random estates up and down the country are over.

OMG.

Something I noted around here is the amount of low count posters who happen to have such a rosey outlook on both our property market and our economy.
Just call me cynical.

The Spider wrote: »

Housing bubble, doesn't matter vast majority will get debt write offs and be gagged, it's already happening, this will prevent large scale repossessions, which would depress prices further, whether you like it or not the only ones who want that are renters.

Debt will be written off for homeowners and the banks by the ECB or the repayment terms will be lengthened to a point where it doesn't matter (Germany only finished paying it's war reparations for world war 1 in the past few years)

BTW has anyone told the German taxpayers, the German government or the ECB for that matter that the ECB funding of Irish banks is going to be drawn out to 90 plus years ?

The Spider wrote: »

I could go on, but the fact is everyone knows rising house prices are good for an economy, yes there are some losers, like renters, first time buyers etc. but prices rising on the biggest investment the vast majority of the population will ever make is a good thing, and no a house isn't just about shelter, property never was.

Yep rising house prices and by extension the demand for rising labour costs are good for an economy dependent on FDI. :rolleyes:

It worked out well for us the last time didn't it ?

The Spider wrote: »

Oh I'm not an estate agent, but again politically it's going to have to happen, and as I've said previously people can't pay those kind of debts, no government can expect to survive telling people they're basically on the hook forever, won't wash with the electorate.

And yes the taxpayer will have to pay, however as I'd mentioned earlier using the example of Germany paying back war reperations which were only finally paid for world war 1 in 2010 a debt to the ecb can be strung out until inflation eventually eats it.

If it's good enough for the Germans then it's good enough for us.

Someone has an overinflated opinion of the importance of this country me thinks.

BTW good luck trying to convince the postive contributors (e.g Finland, Holland, Germany) to the Eurozone/ECB that Irish mortgage defaulters deserve to have their debts wiped out at their expense.
Because basically that is what you are saying.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

OMG.

Something I noted around here is the amount of low count posters who happen to have such a rosey outlook on both our property market and our economy.
Just call me cynical.



BTW has anyone told the German taxpayers, the German government or the ECB for that matter that the ECB funding of Irish banks is going to be drawn out to 90 plus years ?

Yep rising house prices and by extension the demand for rising labour costs are good for an economy dependent on FDI. :rolleyes:

It worked out well for us the last time didn't it ?

No you're right I'm part of the national estate agents association who trawls
boards trying to convince people who'll never buy a house to buy one, because god knows that if I can convince the people to buy here, that's it we'll all be earning megabucks!

I really don't care if you do or don't is it a dead cat or a recovery, why are there so many viewings, why are houses in SCD and beyond being snapped
up, why didn't the end of MIR stop everyone buying houses?

And regardless of all that, anyone waiting for a firesale or a glut of repos in
desireable areas are going to be disappointed.

Now you may get what you're looking for in Leitrim, but don't expect it to
happen in SCD or any of the other desirable areas in Dublin.

StillWaters

lima wrote: »

Do you look at teenagers facebook's much then?

:rolleyes:
.

I have a house of them, teenagers that is. In any case smileys, rolleyes etc have their place in After Hours, Leaving Cert forum etc, I just dislike them in adult debate. It's a personal preference, like text speak I suppose. It lowers the level of debate if one has to roll ones eyes to make a point (as I tell my house of teenagers often). Anyway. I'm out.

lima

StillWaters wrote: »

I have a house of them, teenagers that is. In any case smileys, rolleyes etc have their place in After Hours, Leaving Cert forum etc, I just dislike them in adult debate. It's a personal preference, like text speak I suppose. It lowers the level of debate if one has to roll ones eyes to make a point (as I tell my house of teenagers often). Anyway. I'm out.

Bye

Anyway, if SCD prices are rising and getting 'snapped up' (I think he's really from the indo) then it doesn't affect me as I wouldn't live there if it cost be over the average dublin price. The southside is over rated so I wouldnt spend 50k more to live in a SCD area. And there are a lot of people like me too.

desertcircus

The Irish property market is not recovering. It's less than 10% of the size it was at the peak, and that's with houses at less than half of peak prices. Something in the region of 95% of the market's transactions have utterly vanished. There are so few transactions occurring that the rises in SCD of a couple of percentage points everyone is hailing as the start of the recovery could feasibly be the result of the sale of a single huge house in the time frame. The vast majority of the population has no access to mortgage credit and is unlikely to get access soon. Over a tenth of mortgages are in arrears. What exactly is driving this recovery?

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

No you're right I'm part of the national estate agents association who trawls
boards trying to convince people who'll never buy a house to buy one, because god knows that if I can convince the people to buy here, that's it we'll all be earning megabucks!

I don't know who or what you are, but you are sounding like an sindo shrill or a mutated cross between frank fahey and donie cassidy.

The Spider wrote: »

I really don't care if you do or don't is it a dead cat or a recovery, why are there so many viewings, why are houses in SCD and beyond being snapped
up, why didn't the end of MIR stop everyone buying houses?

I wish people would not just use this South County Dublin argument all the time as some example of a recovery.
It is not even all or even the majority of South County Dublin, but certain desirable areas and certain types of properties where certain people would always want to live.
There is a limited supply of these houses and thus when they come on the market they are more appealing.
If a house on Torquay Road or Westminister road in Foxrock or Newtownpark Avenue in Blackrock comes on the market there will be a certain class of buyer who have always wanted to live there after it.
There is a limited market for such and just because one of these is moving doesn't mean the entire market is moving.

The salient truth has been laid out by desertcircus.
The volume of transactions is way below the norm, even those prior to the celtic bubble.

The Spider wrote: »

And regardless of all that, anyone waiting for a firesale or a glut of repos in
desireable areas are going to be disappointed.

Now you may get what you're looking for in Leitrim, but don't expect it to
happen in SCD or any of the other desirable areas in Dublin.

Are you telling me that everywhere bar the likes of Leitrim is a desirable area ?
You actually claimed that the recovery would sweep through Dublin and out into the commuter towns.
I can take you to some of these commutter towns and show you the carnage which includes empty estates and numerous shut businesses.
There is no way in hell they will recover for years.