Dead Cat Bounce

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

I don't know who or what you are, but you are sounding like an sindo shrill or a mutated cross between frank fahey and donie cassidy.



I wish people would not just use this South County Dublin argument all the time as some example of a recovery.
It is not even all or even the majority of South County Dublin, but certain desirable areas and certain types of properties where certain people would always want to live.
There is a limited supply of these houses and thus when they come on the market they are more appealing.
If a house on Torquay Road or Westminister road in Foxrock or Newtownpark Avenue in Blackrock comes on the market there will be a certain class of buyer who have always wanted to live there after it.
There is a limited market for such and just because one of these is moving doesn't mean the entire market is moving.

The salient truth has been laid out by desertcircus.
The volume of transactions is way below the norm, even those prior to the celtic bubble.



Are you telling me that everywhere bar the likes of Leitrim is a desirable area ?
You actually claimed that the recovery would sweep through Dublin and out into the commuter towns.
I can take you to some of these commutter towns and show you the carnage which includes empty estates and numerous shut businesses.
There is no way in hell they will recover for years.

And I also said I hadn't anything in the game in so far as Dublin was concerned, I said I'd bought in a town fifty miles out and commute and that I also didn't expect a recovery in this area for years, read my posts.

Irregardless of that the recovery is under way in Dublin's decent areas I know from first hand experience of looking at these for all of last year, like I said before, and decided to buy that far out because I couldn't see value from the start of last year, and I see even less value now.

However that doesn't mean prices aren't rising whether I see value or not, it is what it is, and has gone on for over a year now (didn't think a bounce was supposed to last that long).

And you can make all the charts you want, point to statistics, mnetion the country's unemployed and our debt, and still the prices rise.

Please point to where they're dropping in the decent areas. This is what happened the last time, all the decent areas were snapped up, then the adjoining areas, and then the areas adjoining them.

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Oh I'm not an estate agent, but again politically it's going to have to happen, and as I've said previously people can't pay those kind of debts, no government can expect to survive telling people they're basically on the hook forever, won't wash with the electorate.

And yes the taxpayer will have to pay, however as I'd mentioned earlier using the example of Germany paying back war reperations which were only finally paid for world war 1 in 2010 a debt to the ecb can be strung out until inflation eventually eats it.

If it's good enough for the Germans then it's good enough for us.

Lazy strawman argument.
Got anything better?

gaius c

StillWaters wrote: »

Nama stock will be sold in an orderly manner, much like it is being done currently. NAMA turning a profit for the tax payer and performing better than expectations. As for debt write offs, there will be debt for equity, restructuring etc, there won't be much debt write offs by domestic banks. Of course there has been debt write offs by the exiting banks but that doesn't affect the tax payer in Ireland.

You are aware that NAMA "turning a profit" is basically extracting cash from people who still have some by manipulation of the market? The price in this case is maintaining an artificially high cost base that will cost us jobs in the long run as businesses are unable to pay the rents demanded by an agency that can be run at a loss.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

Lazy strawman argument.
Got anything better?

Fair enough it is a bit, but it is the precedent, that allowed Germany to become an economic power house, loans being extended, already we see it here.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/ministers-welcome-troika-plan-to-extend-bailout-repayments-1.1355740

Will it be extended again?

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Fair enough it is a bit, but it is the precedent, that allowed Germany to become an economic power house, loans being extended, already we see it here.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/ministers-welcome-troika-plan-to-extend-bailout-repayments-1.1355740

Will it be extended again?

You might have heard of a little event called WW2?
Are you suggesting that we should use grievances over bondholder repayments to stoke up anger and start a world war?
Making bankers wear yellow euro signs?
And the subsequent Marshall Plan to prevent a major nation from landing on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain?
I got news for you. Ireland really isn't that important. The troika don't give a **** if we erupt in civil war and butcher each other over this.

And an internet debating tip, when you admit that you are making a strawman argument, the last thing you should be doing is then reiterating it in the same post.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

You might have heard of a little event called WW2?
Are you suggesting that we should use grievances over bondholder repayments to stoke up anger and start a world war?
Making bankers wear yellow euro signs?
And the subsequent Marshall Plan to prevent a major nation from landing on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain?
I got news for you. Ireland really isn't that important. The troika don't give a **** if we erupt in civil war and butcher each other over this.

And an internet debatint top, when you admit that you are making a strawman argument, the last thing you should be doing is then reiterating it in the same post.

Fine, but prices are still rising in Dublin, austerity hasn't worked and will end next year, there's going to be an extra billion to play with in the budget this year.

Ireland may not be that important but the EU is and the last time I checked we were part of the EU. And regardless we're getting out of the mire.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/ireland-s-budget-deficit-for-2012-comfortably-inside-troika-target-1.1368564

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/305047/economy/finance/euro-zone-laggards-face-long-wait-for-recovery-reuters-poll

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=3&ved=0CDsQqQIoADAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fireland%2Fhousehold-disposable-income-up-2-5-1.1360823&ei=gmZ2UdDeFcOQ0AXSsIDIAw&usg=AFQjCNGX-XjIAb_mUITfcON1hrUIXi4MbQ&sig2=LjUYFy_ML9dJxfb5xou1zA&bvm=bv.45512109,d.d2k

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/flowers-names-ireland-as-target-investment-country-1.1365936

Read some of those and come back to me, you've been singing from the same Hymn sheet for so long, you haven't noticed the musics changed.

Piriz

The Spider wrote: »

And I also said I hadn't anything in the game in so far as Dublin was concerned, I said I'd bought in a town fifty miles out and commute and that I also didn't expect a recovery in this area for years, read my posts.

Irregardless of that the recovery is under way in Dublin's decent areas I know from first hand experience of looking at these for all of last year, like I said before, and decided to buy that far out because I couldn't see value from the start of last year, and I see even less value now.

However that doesn't mean prices aren't rising whether I see value or not, it is what it is, and has gone on for over a year now (didn't think a bounce was supposed to last that long).

And you can make all the charts you want, point to statistics, mnetion the country's unemployed and our debt, and still the prices rise.

Please point to where they're dropping in the decent areas. This is what happened the last time, all the decent areas were snapped up, then the adjoining areas, and then the areas adjoining them.

no they dont.... look at Templeogue:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1414

Foxrock:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1301

Blackrock:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1258

this is just three I checked Imagine in all these desirable areas the majority of asking prices are being reduced... you can use the search tool yourself to try to show that prices are rising...I doubt you'll find support to your argument...
also did you know that most properties sold these days sell for below the asking price...

The Spider

Piriz wrote: »

no they dont.... look at Templeogue:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1414

Foxrock:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1301

Blackrock:
http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1258

this is just three I checked Imagine in all these desirable areas the majority of asking prices are being reduced... you can use the search tool yourself to try to show that prices are rising...I doubt you'll find support to your argument...
also did you know that most properties sold these days sell for below the asking price...

You mean most properties sold up to last year, anyway, take alook at this link, you can use statistics one way or the other, one of the guys on the property pin put together some interesting stats.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58988

Piriz

ah sure go on then...i did Dalkey for ye... http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1284

some nice gaffs out there...decreasing in value!

The Spider

Piriz wrote: »

ah sure go on then...i did Dalkey for ye... http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=1284

some nice gaffs out there...decreasing in value!

Still crazy prices in Dalkey, we said recovering, not going stratospheric, oh and apartments don't count.......yet!

Piriz

The Spider wrote: »

You mean most properties sold up to last year, anyway, take alook at this link, you can use statistics one way or the other, one of the guys on the property pin put together some interesting stats.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58988

the links I uploaded are not statistics and are not properties sold up to last year... they are the latest asking price changes (mostly decreases) for properties currently on the market in those areas!

The Spider

Piriz wrote: »

the links I uploaded are not statistics and are not properties sold up to last year... they are the latest asking price changes (mostly decreases) for properties currently on the market in those areas!

Get people through the door and let them bid up the price.

Piriz

The Spider wrote: »

You mean most properties sold up to last year, anyway, take alook at this link, you can use statistics one way or the other, one of the guys on the property pin put together some interesting stats.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58988

ok this is my last post to you on this: the link you post to the propertypin show flip up's (properties bought in recent years and sold on for more)...interesting....but when this list of 40 or so flip ups is coupled with the overwhelming amount of current asking price decreases (myhome latest price changes http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=)it does not equate to a bottoming out...stabilisation and certainly not as people like to call a 'recovery'.

thanks.

The Spider

Piriz wrote: »

ok this is my last post to you on this: the link you post to the propertypin show flip up's (properties bought in recent years and sold on for more)...interesting....but when this list of 40 or so flip ups is coupled with the overwhelming amount of current asking price decreases (myhome latest price changes http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1265&LocalityIDs=)it does not equate to a bottoming out...stabilisation and certainly not as people like to call a 'recovery'.

thanks.

Daft report does it for me I'm afraid as it goes on selling prices not drops, as far as Daft is concerned Dublin's stabilised, that says it all really and the anecdotal evidence, says prices have risen quite dramatically in the past year.

http://www.daft.ie/report/index

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

Get people through the door and let them bid up the price.

There simply isn't any concrete evidence that prices are rising. Let's go through the numbers:

The expected figure for mortgage drawdowns in Ireland in 2013 is 2bn. Assuming an average of 200k per drawdown, that's ten thousand mortgages. 10% of Irish households are in South Dublin and Dun Laoghaire, so that's a thousand mortgages a year. Of course, large numbers of this are apartments or in less desirable areas, so let's say 36% are houses in fashionable areas. That gives us 360 mortgages a year, or thirty a month. Assuming an average mortgage in these cases of 333,000 (a 66% premium on the average nationwide), that means the SCD-fancy-area-house mortgage market is ten million a month.

Now let's see what happens to the figures if we add in a single atypically large transaction - let's say Google's head of operations gets a huge bonus and decides to by a five-bed detached house in Killiney for a million quid. Instantly, he or she has produced a 9% monthly bump in prices in this class of housing, which levels out to a 3% bump for the quarter and nearly a full percentage point for the year. That's without a single increase anywhere else in our figures, and it tells us nothing about the realistic price of a three-bed in Stillorgan or a terraced house in Harold's Cross. The figures we're getting don't support the conclusions being drawn, and claiming they do would get you a failing grade in an introductory stats course.

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

There simply isn't any concrete evidence that prices are rising. Let's go through the numbers:

The expected figure for mortgage drawdowns in Ireland in 2013 is 2bn. Assuming an average of 200k per drawdown, that's ten thousand mortgages. 10% of Irish households are in South Dublin and Dun Laoghaire, so that's a thousand mortgages a year. Of course, large numbers of this are apartments or in less desirable areas, so let's say 36% are houses in fashionable areas. That gives us 360 mortgages a year, or thirty a month. Assuming an average mortgage in these cases of 333,000 (a 66% premium on the average nationwide), that means the SCD-fancy-area-house mortgage market is ten million a month.

Now let's see what happens to the figures if we add in a single atypically large transaction - let's say Google's head of operations gets a huge bonus and decides to by a five-bed detached house in Killiney for a million quid. Instantly, he or she has produced a 9% monthly bump in prices in this class of housing, which levels out to a 3% bump for the quarter and nearly a full percentage point for the year. That's without a single increase anywhere else in our figures, and it tells us nothing about the realistic price of a three-bed in Stillorgan or a terraced house in Harold's Cross. The figures we're getting don't support the conclusions being drawn, and claiming they do would get you a failing grade in an introductory stats course.

Well let's see what the daft report says on this, seeing as they're probably the biggest experts in the country and don't have an axe to grind whether prices are up or down.

"In South County Dublin, asking prices are now 6% higher than a year ago, a rate of change not seen since early 2007. After 19 straight quarters of falling prices, they have now risen in that area in four of the last five quarters. Prices are also higher, year-on-year, in Dublin city centre and in the South City region, while in the North City region, they are roughly stable (down -0.5% year-on-year)."

So there ya go I would assume they have whole teams working on it as it's their big release of the year, and in the past they haven't shied away from reporting drops, so I'll take their word for it, thanks!

desertcircus

I've literally just explained the exact mechanism by which price rises can appear without any real backing, and you produce figures that show price rises without any real backing. Surely you can do better.

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

I've literally just explained the exact mechanism by which price rises can appear without any real backing, and you produce figures that show price rises without any real backing. Surely you can do better.

Hang on are you talking to me or Ronan Lyons of Daft? can I do better than the Daft report? Eh, no, and Either can you, and don't you think that your mechanism has been taken into account on the biggest yearly property report in the country?

Obviously a large transaction price will distort the average that's the first thing anyone would look at, whether it was house prices, a monthly budget for a household, a quarterly report for a business, and believe me Daft have taken it into account.

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

Hang on are you talking to me or Ronan Lyons of Daft? can I do better than the Daft report? Eh, no, and Either can you, and don't you think that your mechanism has been taken into account on the biggest yearly property report in the country?

If I wanted to talk to Ronan, I'd talk to Ronan. He was a couple of years ahead of me in college; he's undoubtedly very smart, but he'd be the first to admit that he's not immune from critique. As for whether the mechanism I described has been taken into account: I can't see the detail in the report, which seems to go no deeper than South Dublin City and South County Dublin and thus may miss out on more granular data. And again, the whole point of this thread is that we may simply be seeing a dead cat bounce. The report seems to indicate stabilising, but there's really not anything definitive enough to be able to say south Dublin property is on the up.

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

If I wanted to talk to Ronan, I'd talk to Ronan. He was a couple of years ahead of me in college; he's undoubtedly very smart, but he'd be the first to admit that he's not immune from critique. As for whether the mechanism I described has been taken into account: I can't see the detail in the report, which seems to go no deeper than South Dublin City and South County Dublin and thus may miss out on more granular data. And again, the whole point of this thread is that we may simply be seeing a dead cat bounce. The report seems to indicate stabilising, but there's really not anything definitive enough to be able to say south Dublin property is on the up.

Em well there's this line

"In South County Dublin, asking prices are now 6% higher than a year ago, a rate of change not seen since early 2007."

If say an average price of 320000, that's an increase of 19200, that's enough for a new car, substantial if you ask me.

makeorbrake

The Spider wrote: »

Well let's see what the daft report says on this, seeing as they're probably the biggest experts in the country and don't have an axe to grind whether prices are up or down.

daft.ie don't have a vested interest and don't bring any bias with them? Is that true?

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

Em well there's this line

"In South County Dublin, asking prices are now 6% higher than a year ago, a rate of change not seen since early 2007."

If say an average price of 320000, that's an increase of 19200, that's enough for a new car, substantial if you ask me.

You're simply not reading what I'm writing. A 6% increase may be the result of a few properties coming online that skew the overall market, or a change in the location within south Dublin of the properties being offered.

The Spider

makeorbrake wrote: »

daft.ie don't have a vested interest and don't bring any bias with them? Is that true?

Yes it's true, they're independent and have never tried to talk the market one way or the other, they just report on the facts.

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

You're simply not reading what I'm writing. A 6% increase may be the result of a few properties coming online that skew the overall market, or a change in the location within south Dublin of the properties being offered.

I am reading what you say and am telling you that you're arguement for a couple of high prices skewing the average doesn't stand up, they'll be taken into account and averaged out.

That's how any report on rises or drops works regardless of property, if it was a beans salesman and he had an increase from one customer fro more beans he'd average it out, in the overall yearly figure.

Clutching at straws 6% is a big increase when you take into account the decreases.

desertcircus

The Spider wrote: »

I am reading what you say and am telling you that you're arguement for a couple of high prices skewing the average doesn't stand up, they'll be taken into account and averaged out.

That's how any report on rises or drops works regardless of property, if it was a beans salesman and he had an increase from one customer fro more beans he'd average it out, in the overall yearly figure.

Clutching at straws 6% is a big increase when you take into account the decreases.

I'm bowing out of this. I've explained this three times now, I've given workings for exactly how it operates, and each time you point to a level of granularity that simply doesn't exist in a single property report from a company entirely financially dependent on the property market.

davet82

this argument is turning into the equivalent of comparing the American housing market to Beverly hills

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

I'm bowing out of this. I've explained this three times now, I've given workings for exactly how it operates, and each time you point to a level of granularity that simply doesn't exist in a single property report from a company entirely financially dependent on the property market.

Fine property prices in Dublin aren't rising, the country's fecked, we're all doomed, the EU are looking at ways to set the island of Ireland loose form the European continent, so that it can float down the atlantic and take it's place of the eastern coast of argentina.

Let me know if you need a tinfoil supplier I know a guy, it makes superb hats!

jmayo

davet82 wrote: »

this argument is turning into the equivalent of comparing the American housing market to Beverly hills

Sorry I couldn't resist

hfallada

Its basic economics Demand vs supply. If supply is pretty much non existent and demand is relatively high prices go up. Some areas ARENT going have a ton of bank repossessions and even the banks do sell repossessed houses the prices wont fall. Some areas like Clontarf, Glasnevin, Ballsbridge only about half the houses would have mortgages. So a few repossessions would only be about 4-6% of the house stock. These areas are mature with older families.

On the other hand some where like swords except a continuing fall in prices. As they say in the US the top of the market falls last a recovers the fastest and Dublin is being marketed aboard as a place to buy a luxury second home

gaius c

hfallada wrote: »

Its basic economics Demand vs supply. If supply is pretty much non existent and demand is relatively high prices go up. Some areas ARENT going have a ton of bank repossessions and even the banks do sell repossessed houses the prices wont fall. Some areas like Clontarf, Glasnevin, Ballsbridge only about half the houses would have mortgages. So a few repossessions would only be about 4-6% of the house stock. These areas are mature with older families.

On the other hand some where like swords except a continuing fall in prices. As they say in the US the top of the market falls last a recovers the fastest and Dublin is being marketed aboard as a place to buy a luxury second home

You need to join the dots. MABS are reporting that the people coming into them needing help with mortgage arrears are much older than expected. Michael Clontarf and Jason Glasnevin might not have PPR mortgages against their main house but do they have separate BTL mortgages or BTL mortgages secured on the PPR?