Dead Cat Bounce

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Nope, it wont, supply and demand will, If there's more supply it'll drive em down if not they'll keep going up, I dont see any new supply, in the nice areas of Dublin anyway!

You've mentioned "decent" and "nice" areas of Dublin a few times where in your words price rises are happening, care to list these areas?

Galego

gaius c wrote: »

Interest rates up and AIB are 46% of the mortgage market right now.
http://www.aib.ie/personal/mortgages/mortgage_notice?c_id...ad...CachedYou

Guess that won't affect house prices at all though?

Would everyone now rush to buy before June this year and fix their inflated (overpriced house) mortgages to 1-2-3-5 years?

Do never underestimate the Irish irrational behaviour when it comes to buying houses.

PhilMcGee

In the late 90's I was buying when everyone was telling me not to.
I gave it a break when I thought it wasnt the right time anymore.
Now i'm buying again that i'm convinced the time is right again. And the longer people take to follow, the better as far as i am concerned.

Everyone will have their own opinion. If you are happy that your own analysis is good then got with it, whichever way that may be.
You dont really need to convince anyone else that you are doing the right thing or not, whichever way you decide to go.

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Nope, it wont, supply and demand will, If there's more supply it'll drive em down if not they'll keep going up, I dont see any new supply, in the nice areas of Dublin anyway!

Haven't you covered stress testing and mortgage affordability in home economics class yet?

gaius c

PhilMcGee wrote: »

In the late 90's I was buying when everyone was telling me not to.
I gave it a break when I thought it wasnt the right time anymore.
Now i'm buying again that i'm convinced the time is right again. And the longer people take to follow, the better as far as i am concerned.

Everyone will have their own opinion. If you are happy that your own analysis is good then got with it, whichever way that may be.
You dont really need to convince anyone else that you are doing the right thing or not, whichever way you decide to go.

Is that why you've been posting about that matter and little else on this forum?

by the seaside

gaius c wrote: »

Is that why you've been posting about that matter and little else on this forum?

Perhaps he's trying to convince himself. I'm moving to Dublin from England, but am in no hurry to buy. Prices may rise, but they seem unlikely to rocket. They may fall like a stone, because I don't see the Eurozone crisis played out yet.

lima

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_mar2013.pdf

lima

lima wrote: »

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_mar2013.pdf

Once a few repos happen apartments will dive again

gurramok

As there is a severe fixation on Dublin by the Bulls, can they answer where are these price rises they speak of? Below is mortgage based only figures from the CSO

CSO wrote:

In Dublin residential property prices fell by 0.8% in March but were 1.4% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices fell by 0.3% in the month but were 1.5%
higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 2.2% lower when compared with the same month of 2012.

However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.

Apparently the peak of the bounce in the prices of houses occurred in Dec 2012, coincidentally at the same time of the ending of MIR. Thats 3 consecutive months of declines in Dublin house prices.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=84322640&postcount=32

gaius c

Need to note that the CSO index doesn't include cash sales.
The bit that the media always forget to mention is that YOY comparisons can be "off" because the weighting is reset at the beginning of each year (see page 18). It should really only be used to compare between months from the same calendar year.


Graph courtesy of Coles2 on the propertypin.

gurramok

Dublin-all Residential properties
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/prices/2013/rppi_mar2013.pdf

PhilMcGee

gaius c wrote: »

Is that why you've been posting about that matter and little else on this forum?

Why the personal attacks on people all the time?

You seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder to tell the truth. But i'm sure you will just post away all day, relentlessly, until people get bored of answering your posts. Where you get the time I dont know.

Actually I never ever advised anyone to buy property or to hold off in my life.
I posted my own experiences, and told people to depend on only their own research, and that was it. I dont actually care whether prices go up or down. Its 100% about the yield for me.

If I remember correctly in the other thread it went like this.

Someone posted that they had closed on an investment property.

You attacked them with made up figures. Trying to make out that those returns were impossible. You couldnt even see the flaws in your own makey uppy figures that you posted.

gaius c wrote: »

I'm an engineer so playing with figures is childsplay to me

Sounded like you were saying "I eat breakfast 300 yards from 4000 Cubans who are trained to kill me"

Then I was curious to compare with the OPs, so I posted my own experience and figures in the thread to see if that person would post theirs, if you hadnt hounded them out of the thread.

You couldnt fault the figures posted so you ran away with your tail between your legs. But just into other threads where you throw around accusations without basis.

Anynama141

PhilMcGee wrote: »

Someone posted that they had closed on an investment property.

You attacked them with made up figures. Trying to make out that those returns were impossible.

The returns were possible if the poster had paid a huge deposit on the property. But she was unwilling to give any details. As I pointed out, if you paid a 99% deposit and got a 1% mortgage, you could rightfully claim that you'd paid your mortgage before your first lunchtime every month. It wouldn't really mean anything though. And that's before you get into the opportunity cost of that large deposit.

Anyway, that's probably O/T.

PhilMcGee

Anynama141 wrote: »

The returns were possible if the poster had paid a huge deposit on the property. But she was unwilling to give any details. As I pointed out, if you paid a 99% deposit and got a 1% mortgage, you could rightfully claim that you'd paid your mortgage before your first lunchtime every month. It wouldn't really mean anything though. And that's before you get into the opportunity cost of that large deposit.

Anyway, that's probably O/T.

Im think you were also part of that tag team.
And you were incorrect in what you pointed out as well.
I felt sorry for the poor op.
I worked out that her returns could very easily be similar to mine, which i posted. Which is why i wanted to compare notes with her. I believe I even posted what the deposit and mortgage were on one of my properties were (close enough to that for them all). Which were deposit 20,000 and mortgage 390 - Incidentally less than a days wages, which everyone in the other thread seemed to get upset about when the op said it was for her.
Im pm'ing her trying to get her to at send me the figures as im curious. If she does i'll ask her to post them too.
But you are right OT. Not worth the arguments that ensue when certain people go on the attack in threads.
I'll leave it at that, for fear of being accused of trying to convince people one way or the other. I wouldnt even advise my sister to buy property at the moment. But that would be up to her. I think its attractive to investors only at the moment as far as im concerned. And even then only in certain parts of Dublin.

Galego

@PhilMcGee

Which were deposit 20,000 and mortgage 390 - Incidentally less than a days wages

Could I be cheecky and kindly ask you for your numbers for that 10% return? Is this before or after tax?
I’d also need to know any finance cost & running expensive attached to that return. Thanks.

gaius c

Phil
A month ago, she didn't know what a part 4 tenancy was but now she's a master investor who runs away when you query her figures?
She also made a slip when she thought yield was calculated on her cash deposit and tried to cover it up.

The return on the 25k i gave is not a yield calculation. It just happens by coincidence that yield calculation gives roughly the same figure as the yearly return on the 25k. That return is after tax too. There are numerous sources for getting the formula for yield if you google it.

Hmmm..."coincidence"...
Actually, now that I think of it that is probably the key to unlocking the rest of the mystery because she's after telling us that her after tax profit is €2,500.

It is the internet though and I've never known people to tell tall tales on the internet, have you?
In fairness to you, you didn't run away and posted up your own figures (and in more detail). If you look back, you'll see that I acknowledged them as fairly plausible.

Oh and it's 1000 yards and there were 10,000 of them.

PhilMcGee

gaius c wrote: »

Phil
A month ago, she didn't know what a part 4 tenancy was but now she's a master investor who runs away when you query her figures?
She also made a slip when she thought yield was calculated on her cash deposit and tried to cover it up.

Hmmm..."coincidence"...
Actually, now that I think of it that is probably the key to unlocking the rest of the mystery because she's after telling us that her after tax profit is €2,500.

It is the internet though and I've never known people to tell tall tales on the internet, have you?
In fairness to you, you didn't run away and posted up your own figures (and in more detail). If you look back, you'll see that I acknowledged them as fairly plausible.

Oh and it's 1000 yards and there were 10,000 of them.

You see what I saw was that she posted about her yield and also posted a different return on investment calculation (which is what got my interest).

Someone in the thread confused yield with the other calculation she posted.

She politely told them that that wasnt the yield, but you could see why someone could make the mistake since the 2 figures were so close.

Then she was savagely attacked.

Something I previously thought of was just confined to girls on facebook.

I've PM'd her to send me her figures anyway.

Norwesterner

After Ben Dunnes interview tonight, watched in thousands of distressed households.....you can be sure this will be a dead cat bounce.

Galego

Norwesterner wrote: »

After Ben Dunnes interview tonight, watched in thousands of distressed households.....you can be sure this will be a dead cat bounce.

Brutally honest interview which voiced a strong feeling from many Irish people flooded in negative equity.

Ando's Saggy Bottom

Galego wrote: »

Brutally honest interview which voiced a strong feeling from many Irish people flooded in negative equity.

I thought he was spoofing a fair bit tbh. While his intentions and overall sentiment were reasonable enough he didn't sound like he had all the facts correct either. At times Tubridy seemed to have it researched better than he did I thought.

evolving_doors

Ya sure take financial advice from ex-coke head/prostitute using/ lard ass who recommends we join a gym/in cahoots with Crook Joke Haughty "celebrity".... hes just a pundit...no different to emon dunphy/jackie healy rae...

"when you're rich they think you really know"....

Galego

Pete Campbell wrote: »

I thought he was spoofing a fair bit tbh. While his intentions and overall sentiment were reasonable enough he didn't sound like he had all the facts correct either. At times Tubridy seemed to have it researched better than he did I thought.

Which ones did he get wrong? I thought that without really knowing what he was really talking about, at least he got the fact sort of right - exports, foreign debts, debt to GDP per capita, etc.

PhilMcGee

I've PMd mmagirls and we have swapped information on our rents, yields and so on.
She said I could post this here.

Hers work out very well and are very close to my own.
She uses a slightly different way to calculate yield than I do (includes more costs) but thats quite normal.
I've PMd her back and asked her if I can post them up or will she post them up.
Sounds like she doesnt really want to post in here again, but i'll try.

Galego

PhilMcGee wrote: »

I've PMd mmagirls and we have swapped information on our rents, yields and so on.
She said I could post this here.

Hers work out very well and are very close to my own.
She uses a slightly different way to calculate yield than I do (includes more costs) but thats quite normal.
I've PMd her back and asked her if I can post them up or will she post them up.
Sounds like she doesnt really want to post in here again, but i'll try.

Could you please post yours if you do not mind?

I'd like to see how you calculate your 10% return.

Thanks.

PhilMcGee

Galego wrote: »

Could you please post yours if you do not mind?

I'd like to see how you calculate your 10% return.

Thanks.

I already did.
I think in this thread. Have a look back through it.

Galego

PhilMcGee wrote: »

I already did.
I think in this thread. Have a look back through it.

Hi,
yes I found them now. Your calculations seem reasonably right. Doing them in excel, I believe you miss to include the property tax (although you stated 300 for it).

Details
Purchase 88,000.00
Deposit 20,000.00
Total Outlay 2,150.00
Mortgage 68,000.00
Monthly Repayment 390.00
Annual Mort Repayment 4,680.00
Year Income 9,360.00

Initial Investment 22,150.00
Annual Profit 4,680.00
Yield before Taxes & Other Costs 21.13%


Annual Taxes & Costs
Management Fee 600.00
Est Maintenance costs 1,000.00
Agent 700.00
Interest paid on mortgage 3,300.00
Interest Allowable 2,475.00

Property Tax 300.00 Not included in the total 10% return
Profit taxable 4,585.00
Profit After Tax 2,292.00
Yield after Taxes & Other Costs 10%

PhilMcGee

Galego wrote: »

Hi,
yes I found them now. Your calculations seem reasonably right. Doing them in excel, I believe you miss to include the property tax (although you stated 300 for it).

Details
Purchase 88,000.00
Deposit 20,000.00
Total Outlay 2,150.00
Mortgage 68,000.00
Monthly Repayment 390.00
Annual Mort Repayment 4,680.00
Year Income 9,360.00

Initial Investment 22,150.00
Annual Profit 4,680.00
Yield before Taxes & Other Costs 21.13%


Annual Taxes & Costs
Management Fee 600.00
Est Maintenance costs 1,000.00
Agent 700.00
Interest paid on mortgage 3,300.00
Interest Allowable 2,475.00

Property Tax 300.00 Not included in the total 10% return
Profit taxable 4,585.00
Profit After Tax 2,292.00
Yield after Taxes & Other Costs 10%

That includes property tax and NPPR. Dont know exactly what that is going to be until each year comes because they keep messing with it, so its a guess. Will be passing it on in the rent whatever it is anyway though.

Galego

PhilMcGee wrote: »

That includes property tax and NPPR. Dont know exactly what that is going to be until each year comes because they keep messing with it, so its a guess. Will be passing it on in the rent whatever it is anyway though.

It is also worth to note that this 10% return is nominal. The real return rate will need to be discounted each year after year 0.