Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

So dairy is the poor relation of the three?

Yes.

I can say the same for my farm.

Deepsouthwest

Dawggone wrote: »

Yes.

I can say the same for my farm.

And with some of ur COP's for milk u've put up here it makes me v worried.
As regards the other farm, 1000 acres, cereals, a heap of chicken sh1te and a digester sounds like s match made in heaven!

Dawggone

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

And with some of ur COP's for milk u've put up here it makes me v worried.
As regards the other farm, 1000 acres, cereals, a heap of chicken sh1te and a digester sounds like s match made in heaven!

Yes, it would get you thinking allright.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

Yes.

I can say the same for my farm.

I was going to ask in how many years is the opposite the case, but I suspect quota may have distorted things too much to make the answer of any real meaning for the future.

I suppose my point is that for about 30 years of the "modern" era - from say 1975 - 2005 corn was 200-400$ and wheat $400-600. In the same period NZ milk would have been 15-20$/100 kg.

Only since 2005 have we seen the dislocations which brought the softs up into 500-1000 & milk between $30-40/100 kg.

I wonder, at 1975-2005 prices, had there not been quota, in how many years dairy would have beaten tillage on your farm?

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

I wonder, at 1975-2005 prices, had there not been quota, in how many years dairy would have beaten tillage on your farm?

Hmmm had there been no quota, it's anyone's guess.

From '83 'till now dairy has been well ahead of cereals.

If you take your average 100acre family farm since '83, if they were in cereals, they would be starving by now! There would certainly wouldn't have sent children to boarding schools and onto university.
You have touched on something that I've often spoken about...with quota now gone, expansion is not only necessary, but vital for survival. The 100 acre (full time) tillage/beef farm is history. Can dairy be far behind?

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

Hmmm had there been no quota, it's anyone's guess.

From '83 'till now dairy has been well ahead of cereals.

If you take your average 100acre family farm since '83, if they were in cereals, they would be starving by now! There would certainly wouldn't have sent children to boarding schools and onto university.
You have touched on something that I've often spoken about...with quota now gone, expansion is not only necessary, but vital for survival. The 100 acre (full time) tillage/beef farm is history. Can dairy be far behind?

Every single bit of evidence suggests that the small dairy farm should vanish into history.

For cereals, it was mechanisation which drove expansion (the extra acres paid for the machines which were the only economic way to grow the crop).

For cows, at least on the Irish model, mechanisation has definite limits. If you are going to have robots you might as well house the cows and enjoy high output rather than trying to teach them to obey traffic lights and box junctions themselves to get to grass.

In the end it will all, surely, be about gross margin per labour unit (just as it was with tillage)... with cheaper feed & diesel the logical way to attain this is more robots, more tractors, more yield & less men.

The Irish model is a bit of a left fielder - but in one sense you can't argue with it - the only thing cheaper than a robot is a dairy farmer with a fully employed wife!

Buford T. Justice XIX

Dawggone wrote: »

Ah no Dsw!

Cereals are the main enterprise with 400k chickens produced p.a. also.

So even with first cost concentrates from cereals, the dairy enterprise couldn't add enough added value to make it viable or is it that there was too much difficulty in replacing the farm workforce?

Dawggone wrote: »

Hmmm had there been no quota, it's anyone's guess.

From '83 'till now dairy has been well ahead of cereals.

If you take your average 100acre family farm since '83, if they were in cereals, they would be starving by now! There would certainly wouldn't have sent children to boarding schools and onto university.
You have touched on something that I've often spoken about...with quota now gone, expansion is not only necessary, but vital for survival. The 100 acre (full time) tillage/beef farm is history. Can dairy be far behind?

Hasn't that always been the case, though, Dawg?

The 60 cow man could rear and educate a family in the 80s, a 40 cow man could do that in the 70s, a 30 cow man in the 60s?

Is it the expectation that food should take a smaller and smaller share of total household expenditure, fueled by supermarkets focusing on their 'ever lower food prices' that is leaving the future of family farms in doubt? Iirc, the percentage of household income taken by food is now less than 15% and still declining. Obviously a 102inch HDD tv with surround sound and subscriptions to 3 million channels (only 10 of which will ever be looked at) is more important than spending on food to feed their family:rolleyes:

kowtow

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Obviously a 102inch HDD tv with surround sound and subscriptions to 3 million channels (only 10 of which will ever be looked at) is more important than spending on food to feed their family:rolleyes:

Ah - but they can have it all, as long as the food industry keeps batting clever.

Food costs less, and people eat more - but at least they eat what they are given, because without the genius of the food industry there is no way on God's green earth a chicken nugget could ever have become a "thing".

Everyone wins - the farmer gets bigger by selling more for less, the public gets fatter by eating more for less, and the food industry increases profits by 5% plus per annum by telling everyone what to do.

Cui Bono?

yosemitesam1

Dawggone wrote: »

Ah no Dsw!

Cereals are the main enterprise with 400k chickens produced p.a. also.

Are lads still making money from grain ATM with prices so low?

darragh_haven

Dawggone wrote: »

Bullseye.



I was looking at a bull this morning that was on a 400ha farm. Farm has 200 cow herd producing over 2 million liters per year. The whole herd is for sale because the two dairy employees are retiring. They looked at robots and decided that it was a better route to sell out and build a digester.



It's got me thinking...

Is it time for me to take a trip to France. ...... to push you over the edge

kowtow

darragh_haven wrote: »

Is it time for me to take a trip to France. ...... to push you over the edge

Dawg over the edge?

Nah.

atlantic mist

kowtow wrote: »

Every single bit of evidence suggests that the small dairy farm should vanish into history.

100% agree with you there, milk producer numbers have been decreasing here over the decades, this will be accelerated over next 10 years as prices wouldnt reach those highs unless we have some catastrophic world event or our processors becoming more proactive in achieving higher prices instead of price taking

our industry (teagasc and our processors) all wishing to go the route of new zeland which to me is beyond belief, mass production low cost production,low cost selling, we could turn eventually turn out like the swiss where they cant retain young people to stay working the land or back to estates

farms have to get bigger to be able to be able to produce more to be able to survive or become a specialist in something and remain the same size which is the option im currently favoring

Milked out

Kerry and Lake land held at 26 and 26.25 respectively

whelan2

Milked out wrote: »

Kerry and Lake land held at 26 and 26.25 respectively

Wonder will glanbia raise their price to match

frazzledhome

Was at a meeting of dairy farmers yesterday morning and price wasn't even mentioned. All that was discussed was how much we can add to the base with our solids. Next was how we could properly analyse our business and get better value for any monies spent on VCs.

Refreshing

alps

frazzledhome wrote: »

Was at a meeting of dairy farmers yesterday morning and price wasn't even mentioned. All that was discussed was how much we can add to the base with our solids. Next was how we could properly analyse our business and get better value for any monies spent on VCs.

Refreshing

That kind of comment shouldn't be on a milk price thread.

frazzledhome

alps wrote: »

That kind of comment shouldn't be on a milk price thread.

??????

Deepsouthwest

frazzledhome wrote: »

??????

I'm sure it's humorous, at least that's what I thought!

kowtow

alps wrote:

That kind of comment shouldn't be on a milk price thread.

I suspect what frazz is reminding us of is that milk sales are actually at a substantial premium for solids over base.

On that basis presumably there is still some margin over cash COP to pay the farmer.

whelan2

kowtow wrote: »

I suspect what frazz is reminding us of is that milk sales are actually at a substantial premium for solids over base.

On that basis presumably there is still some margin over cash COP to pay the farmer.

yes but you still have to work from the base price , all bonuses for solids etc are on top of that ... even looking at the 24cpl glanbia september price and lakelands are already 2.5cpl ahead of us, if we had 26.5 as our base price as well as our solids it would make a big difference

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

Was at a meeting of dairy farmers yesterday morning and price wasn't even mentioned. All that was discussed was how much we can add to the base with our solids. Next was how we could properly analyse our business and get better value for any monies spent on VCs.

Refreshing

Buy 20% less of something and use 20% less of it

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

yes but you still have to work from the base price , all bonuses for solids etc are on top of that ... even looking at the 24cpl glanbia september price and lakelands are already 2.5cpl ahead of us, if we had 26.5 as our base price as well as our solids it would make a big difference

Agreed, however some people I speak to are obsessing about price which is outside their control. If they could be bothered discussing their business id say they'd be better off

I'm not unaware of the importance of what the price is I'd prefer to focus on what I can do to insulate my business

alps

kowtow wrote: »

I suspect what frazz is reminding us of is that milk sales are actually at a substantial premium for solids over base.

On that basis presumably there is still some margin over cash COP to pay the farmer.

Of course and only messing with the comment to frazz, and always refreshing when in the environment of positivity.
You touch on the premium over base. Many of our processors are not straightforward a+b-c as the sum is complicated with scc, tbc, dairy hygiene premium and other payments, paid on a per litre basis which negates the c deduction of the payment.

This has the effect of making the price for the high solids producer deviate at different rates from the base of each processor, with yhe effect that farmers in some cases should not be complaining about their base but their inability to pull away from the base.

whelan2

frazzledhome wrote: »

Agreed, however some people I speak to are obsessing about price which is outside their control. If they could be bothered discussing their business id say they'd be better off

I'm not unaware of the importance of what the price is I'd prefer to focus on what I can do to insulate my business

agreed but any farmers I have spoken to in the last few weeks the main topics are
no sfp
milk price
tax bill
I normally only worry about whats inside my own gate but at same time its good to talk

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

agreed but any farmers I have spoken to in the last few weeks the main topics are
no sfp
milk price
tax bill
I normally only worry about whats inside my own gate but at same time its good to talk

You're talking to the wrong people. Tax happens every year, milk price was 40c last ye and payment always come.

Did they by any chance suggest what they could do to help themselves?

Brown Podzol

alps wrote: »

Of course and only messing with the comment to frazz, and always refreshing when in the environment of positivity.
You touch on the premium over base. Many of our processors are not straightforward a+b-c as the sum is complicated with scc, tbc, dairy hygiene premium and other payments, paid on a per litre basis which negates the c deduction of the payment.

This has the effect of making the price for the high solids producer deviate at different rates from the base of each processor, with yhe effect that farmers in some cases should not be complaining about their base but their inability to pull away from the base.

So your saying that all the quality payments should be paid on the kg's of solids?

whelan2

frazzledhome wrote: »

You're talking to the wrong people. Tax happens every year, milk price was 40c last ye and payment always come.

Did they by any chance suggest what they could do to help themselves?

yes tax happens every year and sfp is normally in account on time anyway not my problem as I am sorted. Am actually much better off here now than I was this time last year.

alps

Brown Podzol wrote: »

So your saying that all the quality payments should be paid on the kg's of solids?

Absolutely. .

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

yes tax happens every year and sfp is normally in account on time anyway not my problem as I am sorted. Am actually much better off here now than I was this time last year.

I haven't got my spf yet but I'm used to getting it in January at this stage

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote:

I haven't got my spf yet but I'm used to getting it in January at this stage

Well there's no sign of the Scottish derogation either so looks like the Mrs will have to fly commercial at Christmas...

WheatenBriar

frazzledhome wrote: »

You're talking to the wrong people. Tax happens every year, milk price was 40c last ye and payment always come.

Did they by any chance suggest what they could do to help themselves?

Are you suggesting whelan 2 should cut farmers out of her life? Because that is what they're all talking about
Mention Bergin or Talbot and they're spitting fire
Anyone not aware of that,is in a bubble tbh too exposed to the Glanbia management set
That well paid,insulated from the grassroots that put them there,set going round to public meetings unashamedly spouting that 1c a litre on base price is more important to GIIL than the farmer is frankly on the ground ruining glanbia's reputation
They have about a year to change tack or the chickens will come home to roost

frazzledhome

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Are you suggesting whelan 2 should cut farmers out of her life? Because that is what they're all talking about
Mention Bergin or Talbot and they're spitting fire
Anyone not aware of that,is in a bubble tbh too exposed to the Glanbia management set
That well paid,insulated from the grassroots that put them there,set going round to public meetings unashamedly spouting that 1c a litre on base price is more important to GIIL than the farmer is frankly on the ground ruining glanbia's reputation
They have about a year to change tack or the chickens will come home to roost

You've proven my point;)

jaymla627

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Are you suggesting whelan 2 should cut farmers out of her life? Because that is what they're all talking about
Mention Bergin or Talbot and they're spitting fire
Anyone not aware of that,is in a bubble tbh too exposed to the Glanbia management set
That well paid,insulated from the grassroots that put them there,set going round to public meetings unashamedly spouting that 1c a litre on base price is more important to GIIL than the farmer is frankly on the ground ruining glanbia's reputation
They have about a year to change tack or the chickens will come home to roost

Remember hearing a brilliant piece on American soldiers in pow camps in Japan, the survivors when recalling their expirences all come to the same conclusion.
That 3 specific groups usually formed which consisted of lads that got immediately depressed consigned to themselves they where dead men, the second group where the everything is going to be fine/positive thinking lads and the third group was lads that knew they where in the **** but accepted this and knew they had to just try and get through it, the soldiers that survived nearly always feel into the last group....
You could easily liken dairy farmers into these groups, we all know the guys ploughing ahead still spending like no tomorw thinking everythings going to be grand sure we have low cost grass based systems, we all know the moaners and we hope ourselves that we fall into the last group, their is some hard times ahead and I really feel sorry for any lads who over the next 12-18 months have dairy as their sole income source with high levels of debt because in most cases these systems will do well to break - even let alone provide wages for the farmer...

Pacoa

If the price don't go up soon we'll all be doing this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKFlH5M1NAo

red bull

Dawggone wrote: »

Hmmm had there been no quota, it's anyone's guess.

From '83 'till now dairy has been well ahead of cereals.

If you take your average 100acre family farm since '83, if they were in cereals, they would be starving by now! There would certainly wouldn't have sent children to boarding schools and onto university.
You have touched on something that I've often spoken about...with quota now gone, expansion is not only necessary, but vital for survival. The 100 acre (full time) tillage/beef farm is history. Can dairy be far behind?

Nothing to do with milk price. You, yours and the French people are on my mind tonight. Peace be with you and RIP to all the victims

BG2.0

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Are you suggesting whelan 2 should cut farmers out of her life? Because that is what they're all talking about
Mention Bergin or Talbot and they're spitting fire
Anyone not aware of that,is in a bubble tbh too exposed to the Glanbia management set
That well paid,insulated from the grassroots that put them there,set going round to public meetings unashamedly spouting that 1c a litre on base price is more important to GIIL than the farmer is frankly on the ground ruining glanbia's reputation
They have about a year to change tack or the chickens will come home to roost

Did the farmer not give over his right to that one cent when he 'cheerleadered' for setting up GIIL and all that? :pac:

frazzledhome

Was in my neighbours yard this morning giving him a dig out.

All he ever does is talk about milk price he didn't however spot the 3 in calf heifers in his shed with slurry heel that needed to be got out immediately.

These 3 beautiful animals were worth 1400 each yet his worry was milk price. As I say it's important but you shouldn't allow it distract you

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

Was in my neighbours yard this morning giving him a dig out.

All he ever does is talk about milk price he didn't however spot the 3 in calf heifers in his shed with slurry heel that needed to be got out immediately.

These 3 beautiful animals were worth 1400 each yet his worry was milk price. As I say it's important but you shouldn't allow it distract you

What's slurry heel frazz?

frazzledhome

kevthegaff wrote: »

What's slurry heel frazz?

Also know as: Scald — Slurry Heel — Stable Footrot — Heel Erosion — Heel Necrosis

Introduction
Interdigital dermatitis is caused by the anaerobic bacteria, Dichelobacter nodosus.

This condition has been confused in the literature with foot rot but the clinical signs of the two diseases are distinctly different. However, terminology is confusing with the equivalent UK/US expression being either heel necrosis, slurry heal or heel erosion (Blowey, 2008). It should not be confused with digital dermatitis.

Interdigital dermatitis (ID) is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, however, different genotypes of this organism cause foot rot in sheep compared with those causing ID in cattle. Transmission of the disease between sheep and cattle has not been reported.

It is hypothesized that ID plays a role in the evolution of other diseases such as foot rot, digital dermatitis, and heel erosion.

D. nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum have been consistently isolated from lesions. However, other organisms frequently present in the interdigital space also play a part in the progress of some of these diseases.

Deepsouthwest

frazzledhome wrote: »

Was in my neighbours yard this morning giving him a dig out.

All he ever does is talk about milk price he didn't however spot the 3 in calf heifers in his shed with slurry heel that needed to be got out immediately.

These 3 beautiful animals were worth 1400 each yet his worry was milk price. As I say it's important but you shouldn't allow it distract you

Not sure what this has to do with milk price, this guy and plenty others like wont notice something like this regardless of whether price is good or bad.
Also an awful lot of farmers do the exact same thing every yr regardless of price, weather, grass availability etc etc. They start calving, let cows out, bring them in and dry them off at the exact same time as every other yr!

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

What's slurry heel frazz?

frazzledhome wrote: »

Also know as: Scald — Slurry Heel — Stable Footrot — Heel Erosion — Heel Necrosis

Introduction
Interdigital dermatitis is caused by the anaerobic bacteria, Dichelobacter nodosus.

This condition has been confused in the literature with foot rot but the clinical signs of the two diseases are distinctly different. However, terminology is confusing with the equivalent UK/US expression being either heel necrosis, slurry heal or heel erosion (Blowey, 2008). It should not be confused with digital dermatitis.

Interdigital dermatitis (ID) is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, however, different genotypes of this organism cause foot rot in sheep compared with those causing ID in cattle. Transmission of the disease between sheep and cattle has not been reported.

It is hypothesized that ID plays a role in the evolution of other diseases such as foot rot, digital dermatitis, and heel erosion.

D. nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum have been consistently isolated from lesions. However, other organisms frequently present in the interdigital space also play a part in the progress of some of these diseases.

Bet you're sorry you asked:D

Good point, frazz. There's more money to be made inside the gate than outside it.

kevthegaff

Any word on arrabawn ?

WheatenBriar

Glanbia unchanged
Still getting away with 23 or so cents ex vat
Government giving us the vat and another cent from our own money in a pretend top up

whelan2

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Glanbia unchanged
Still getting away with 23 or so cents ex vat
Government giving us the vat and another cent from our own money in a pretend top up

what was to stop them giving a 2 cent top up?

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

what was to stop them giving a 2 cent top up?

Nothing bar the fact it'll be needed in the spring.

whelan2

frazzledhome wrote: »

Nothing bar the fact it'll be needed in the spring.

sure we will have the dairy grant in the spring to tide us over :rolleyes:

WheatenBriar

whelan2 wrote: »

what was to stop them giving a 2 cent top up?

Well I wouldn't be surprised if Siobhan put it to the board to rousing claps and cheers that we get no money at all anymore for our milk and instead paid us in vouchers for the glanbia store...

whelan2

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well I wouldn't be surprised if Siobhan put it to the board to rousing claps and cheers that we get no money at all anymore for our milk and instead paid us in vouchers for the glanbia store...

surprised they didnt drop another cent, they have to look after their profits

alps

Interesting to listen to Bergin on the radio this evening, explaining about the fixed price scheme.

For those of us who have no such luxuries, how much of your supply can you put towards it? What happens if it is oversubscribed?

I found it unusual for him to say that the price was fixed at what they considered to be a fair price for the customer and the supplier, for the next 18 months. Can they make a customer pay what they feel is a fair price?

Or is glanbia the customer?

kowtow

alps wrote:

Or is glanbia the customer?

Did he say it was matched to a single customer?

Could be Glanbia. If it is might be difficult to make sure they don't expect a load of low priced milk to make up for their expensive milk...