Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

atlantic mist

well whats even more interesting is we have supply agreement with them they cant buy from anyone else yet, and were selling to them at little over cost of production...and fixing it...where can they go...nuts...

what sort of strategic thinking our our crowd doing at all, who sets our ceo salary, is it set by plc remuneration committee? i hope his comments are brought up at next milk price setting meeting and he is reminded who he works for!!

they should have gotten the same price as what ornua offered, everyone will flock to scheme due to current price

our negotiating skills on these higher value products is what is going to make or break us into the future and we obviously dont have those skills available

considering we have such a small domestic market we need to be maximizing these returns we have to flog the power on the world market

Deepsouthwest

Rumours of Carbery dropping a cent to 28c/l. Should know tomo

Milked out

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Rumours of Carbery dropping a cent to 28c/l. Should know tomo

Ye poor craters

darragh_haven

Milked out wrote: »

Ye poor craters

I did laugh..... and shur with the high solids it'd be 33 or 34 cent

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

Nothing bar the fact it'll be needed in the spring.

Thought youd be out checking for slurry heal and not be worried about milk price:D

stagg88

Slightly off topic here. But just thinking of next year here and doing a bit of budget work its bleak not much lying around for farm expansion got me thinking of what the top lads will be able to do with a base price of 24/25 c/l. Was trying to find out what the top dairy farms where making per hectare in the last milk price collapse in 09. Cant find any profit monitor results on the net for that year

keep going

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Rumours of Carbery dropping a cent to 28c/l. Should know tomo

Yeah gone one cent for oct milk.as a little survey what would ye think of 30cent at 3.3 and 3.6 fixed for the next 18 months

Milked out

keep going wrote: »

Yeah gone one cent for oct milk.as a little survey what would ye think of 30cent at 3.3 and 3.6 fixed for the next 18 months

I'd take that up if twas going once its started soon. Only a poor guesstimate here but I don't see base prices rising till Apr may and with us being 5 cent below that at the moment it could be next dec before we hit 30 cent base assuming an improvement in markets so at 18 months one would likely to be coming out better for 12 of those you'd think. Would normally be wary of going in at times of low prices tho as timing of entry to those schemes seems to be as much a reason as to whether they work out for u or not.

frazzledhome

mf240 wrote: »

Thought youd be out checking for slurry heal and not be worried about milk price:D

Nothing s good footbath and regular scraping won't control. Milk on the other hand .............

keep going

Milked out wrote: »

I'd take that up if twas going once its started soon. Only a poor guesstimate here but I don't see base prices rising till Apr may and with us being 5 cent below that at the moment it could be next dec before we hit 30 cent base assuming an improvement in markets so at 18 months one would likely to be coming out better for 12 of those you'd think. Would normally be wary of going in at times of low prices tho as timing of entry to those schemes seems to be as much a reason as to whether they work out for u or not.

Starting in jan 2016 means you in some ways tying in almost two years supply.foward prices for third quater20 16 are lower than they were for the first two quarters.given my borrowings I d l8ve to ty up a good part of my milk

Dawggone

red bull wrote: »

Nothing to do with milk price. You, yours and the French people are on my mind tonight. Peace be with you and RIP to all the victims

Many thanks. I picked a bad weekend for a little break in Paris...

Greengrass1

Dawggone wrote: »

Many thanks. I picked a bad weekend for a little break in Paris...

Feck.
It must have been horrific Dawg?

Dawggone

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Feck.
It must have been horrific Dawg?

Phuckin awful Gg.

bogman_bass

Dawggone wrote: »

Many thanks. I picked a bad weekend for a little break in Paris...

Ah ****e. Were you close to events? Bad enough seeing it on the news without seeing the aftermath in person

Dawggone

bogman_bass wrote: »

Ah ****e. Were you close to events? Bad enough seeing it on the news without seeing the aftermath in person

Too close.

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

Too close.

What is peoples reaction like? Anything we're getting is refracted through the viewing prism of whoever is filling the report. There was an irish girl who was in the bacalatan theatre during the attack only survived by pure luck interviewed on newstalk earlier. As soon as she even looked like going off message she was hustled towards the exits. What sort of response do people in your area expect from the govt?

kowtow

Gdt off just under 8% wmp 2148

RightTurnClyde

kowtow wrote: »

Gdt off just under 8% wmp 2148

F**k, WMP took some bruising -11%

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

What is peoples reaction like? Anything we're getting is refracted through the viewing prism of whoever is filling the report. There was an irish girl who was in the bacalatan theatre during the attack only survived by pure luck interviewed on newstalk earlier. As soon as she even looked like going off message she was hustled towards the exits. What sort of response do people in your area expect from the govt?

Friday night the reaction was pure terror. Same on Saturday.
If a moped farted there was panic and terror.

Police and 'security' we're VERY weary of allowing any gatherings whatsoever, in fear of mob retribution I suppose. There are between 5 and 6 million Muslims in France...


Shame really as there was a distinct lack of cctv surveillance in Paris, in comparison to, say, London or New York...

alps

keep going wrote: »

Starting in jan 2016 means you in some ways tying in almost two years supply.foward prices for third quater20 16 are lower than they were for the first two quarters.given my borrowings I d l8ve to ty up a good part of my milk

Just see that the max a farmer can put to the fixed price scheme is 5% of his supply...

Can this be true?

That's an absolute joke.......I rated these guys as serious players....what kind of bol#####g is that.

Steam off p### would amount to 5%

frazzledhome

alps wrote: »

keep going wrote: »

Starting in jan 2016 means you in some ways tying in almost two years supply.foward prices for third quater20 16 are lower than they were for the first two quarters.given my borrowings I d l8ve to ty up a good part of my milk

Just see that the max a farmer can put to the fixed price scheme is 5% of his supply...

Can this be true?

That's an absolute joke.......I rated these guys as serious players....what kind of bol#####g is that.

Steam off p### would amount to 5%

Add your reply here.
Alps there's a volume to be filled. The amount each applicant gets is down to the amount of subscribers. I'd say on this case the demand will be massive, so I'd imagine amounts will be small.

Guys with fixed contracts will be given priority over those who don't. That was the talk after the last Fixed Scheme.

frazzledhome

alps wrote: »

keep going wrote: »

Starting in jan 2016 means you in some ways tying in almost two years supply.foward prices for third quater20 16 are lower than they were for the first two quarters.given my borrowings I d l8ve to ty up a good part of my milk

Just see that the max a farmer can put to the fixed price scheme is 5% of his supply...

Can this be true?

That's an absolute joke.......I rated these guys as serious players....what kind of bol#####g is that.

Steam off p### would amount to 5%

Add your reply here.
Alps there's a volume to be filled. The amount each applicant gets is down to the amount of subscribers. I'd say on this case the demand will be massive, so I'd imagine amounts will be small.

Guys with fixed contracts will be given priority over those who don't. That was the talk after the last Fixed Scheme.

alps

frazzledhome wrote: »

Add your reply here.
Alps there's a volume to be filled. The amount each applicant gets is down to the amount of subscribers. I'd say on this case the demand will be massive, so I'd imagine amounts will be small.

Guys with fixed contracts will be given priority over those who don't. That was the talk after the last Fixed Scheme.

This is the Carbery one. Correct me of I'm wrong but is this their first one?
Would someone go into this so as to get priority to get onto the next one?
Remember Carbery are on or near 28c as it is.....and a limit of 5% of your supply...?j

Just shocked....

atlantic mist

why are lads who went in last fixed price contract given priority?

if they are fixed with specific customer what difference does it make who was in the ornua scheme?

last scheme had priority on who went in to the scheme which made no sense from a suppler point of view,although there was a lot of angry suppliers who felt they lost out on the first few schemes in comparison to those who stayed out its highly possible they said theyd make it back to them next time the contracts with ornua and consumer foods came back up. Which is not how these fixed price schemes should work.

Think we badly need a ethics and transparency program to be rolled out for gii

Any word on milk manager within our org who facilitated the quota scandal or is he still under the carpet?

frazzledhome

alps wrote: »

frazzledhome wrote: »

Add your reply here.
Alps there's a volume to be filled. The amount each applicant gets is down to the amount of subscribers. I'd say on this case the demand will be massive, so I'd imagine amounts will be small.

Guys with fixed contracts will be given priority over those who don't. That was the talk after the last Fixed Scheme.

This is the Carbery one. Correct me of I'm wrong but is this their first one?
Would someone go into this so as to get priority to get onto the next one?
Remember Carbery are on or near 28c as it is.....and a limit of 5% of your supply...?j

Just shocked....

Add your reply here.
Sorry Alps, I thought you were a Glanbia supplier

alps

frazzledhome wrote: »

Add your reply here.
Sorry Alps, I thought you were a Glanbia supplier

Neither Frazzledhome, and all this fixed price scenario foreign to me......some of us just take what we get..😃

stretch film

Is this the first time a glanbia fixed milk price is greater than the actual market price?

mf240

stretch film wrote: »

Is this the first time a glanbia fixed milk price is greater than the actual market price?

The first two were a net loss to farmers.

The last one looks like it may be of benifit to farmers.

They are paying the worst price in the country for milk and are now offering a fixed price for what would ammount to the milk out of your worst cows back two teats.

And then theres the magic cookie jar . That seems to be a bit like the loaves and fishes story.

stretch film

mf240 wrote: »

The first two were a net loss to farmers.

The last one looks like it may be of benifit to farmers.

They are paying the worst price in the country for milk and are now offering a fixed price for what would ammount to the milk out of your worst cows back two teats.

And then theres the magic cookie jar . That seems to be a bit like the loaves and fishes story.

Considering this 18 mth scheme takes in 2 peak milk supply periods, and if the scheme supply curve matches overall supply curve as the other schemes did ,then is the hedge as attractive .

atlantic mist

i would think so.
both our produce to consumer foods and ornua would be part of our high value product mix, both schemes should always beat the world market, pick up any of our produce in the supermarket its not cheap, price paid to the suppler should be aligned to retail prices its irrelevant world market prices they can only get irish produce from one country, we tie these up in poor fixed price contracts to our detriment as it reduces our scope to maximise high valued produce

keep going

alps wrote: »

This is the Carbery one. Correct me of I'm wrong but is this their first one?
Would someone go into this so as to get priority to get onto the next one?
Remember Carbery are on or near 28c as it is.....and a limit of 5% of your supply...?j

Just shocked....

a couple of answers
no its not the first scheme,there was one available in march at 32.5 which was poorly subscribed to
almost certain there is no priority to another scheme or to previous schemes.
as far as im aware its 5 % of the total milk pool this time whereas last time it was 20% of your quota so my hunch is less than half the suppliers will take it up.that is why my advice to all west cork suppliers is not to take it up;)
somebody was trying to convince me that it was a sure sign milk price was going to go up and they want lock in cheap milk before it does,needless to say i agreed with him

darragh_haven

keep going wrote: »

a couple of answers
no its not the first scheme,there was one available in march at 32.5 which was poorly subscribed to
almost certain there is no priority to another scheme or to previous schemes.
as far as im aware its 5 % of the total milk pool this time whereas last time it was 20% of your quota so my hunch is less than half the suppliers will take it up.that is why my advice to all west cork suppliers is not to take it up;)
somebody was trying to convince me that it was a sure sign milk price was going to go up and they want lock in cheap milk before it does,needless to say i agreed with him

You are a crafty haure.

keep going

darragh_haven wrote: »

You are a crafty haure.

only learning off you boys,only learning off you boys:P.doing a few sums at the minute and and reckon the fonterra forecastfor this season is equating to around 19 cent a litre give or take.

kowtow

"32c"

Who is buying?

jaymla627

keep going wrote: »

a couple of answers
no its not the first scheme,there was one available in march at 32.5 which was poorly subscribed to
almost certain there is no priority to another scheme or to previous schemes.
as far as im aware its 5 % of the total milk pool this time whereas last time it was 20% of your quota so my hunch is less than half the suppliers will take it up.that is why my advice to all west cork suppliers is not to take it up;)
somebody was trying to convince me that it was a sure sign milk price was going to go up and they want lock in cheap milk before it does,needless to say i agreed with him

Our maybe they're trying to do ye a favour, you really shouldn't be looking at this scheme like some big bad wolf dairy markets are in the s##t, and your turning your nose up at a fixed price scheme that glanbia suppliers would kill to have.....
A really good case study would be where fonterra where offering a fixed milk price of 7 dollars kilo of milk solids on up to half your supply for the season after the record 8 dollar plus was achieved, of course lads thought it was a scam and the scheme was under subscribed we all know the rest of the story with the payout being 4 dollars, the processor dosent always win in these schemes

whelan2

milk statements are up now. I got 35.36 cpl

Milked out

whelan2 wrote: »

milk statements are up now. I got 35.36 cpl

Good going whelan. Is that including winter bonus or liquid price?

whelan2

Milked out wrote: »

Good going whelan. Is that including winter bonus or liquid price?

yes have a big enough liquid milk quota and solid were good enough

Timmaay

Similar here. With very few autumn calvers here, and cows out full time on what was an excellent October for grazing it's one milk cheque which will actually leave a decent bit of profit!

kowtow

Everyone's circumstances are different and it would be better if the schemes were transparent, but by and large I'm surprised at how high the fixed prices are.

WheatenBriar

Timmaay wrote: »

Similar here. With very few autumn calvers here, and cows out full time on what was an excellent October for grazing it's one milk cheque which will actually leave a decent bit of profit!

Aye,mine too was almost exactly the same as whelan2's

Its your turn to drive next month when we are breaking into Ballyragget to hack their computers

Greengrass1

39.15 here.
5.13 bf
4.07 p

Be a while again before we see 55c for winter milk

WheatenBriar

Greengrass1 wrote: »

39.15 here.
5.13 bf
4.07 p

Be a while again before we see 55c for winter milk

Aye,but 50c is a fair price
32 or 36 doesn't leave a fair wage
I'm preaching to the converted here though and such is the nature of the game we're in,we need to budget and average our spending to reflect 1 in 3 years having lowish prices/bad weather or both
Trouble is its currently one in two (3 of the last 6 years) which if it isn't already will soon start hole- ing the most efficient of ships
Not helped,to say the least by the arrogant pricing strategy of Giil

Milked out

Dairygold well back on winter milk aa well by the looks of things

mahoney_j

kowtow wrote: »

Everyone's circumstances are different and it would be better if the schemes were transparent, but by and large I'm surprised at how high the fixed prices are.

+1 it would make u believe that when milk prices start to rise again that they will go up pretty quick

kowtow

mahoney_j wrote: »

+1 it would make u believe that when milk prices start to rise again that they will go up pretty quick

Not sure I'd take that message from it. It might be that if milk prices ever go past 32c in the medium term, they go up quickly, but whoever might be buying these fixed price volumes really does have no more idea than you or I what the market is going to do.

I can think of airlines that went bust over 500 million dollars or so of oil hedged out by buying fixed price forward fuel with oil at 120+ / bbl -

But the balance of probabilities here is that someone is going to lose out on a fixed price purchase. The possible losers are (1) the buyer, who will be paying a fixed price greater than the market, (2) The other producers selling to the same co-op who will somehow end up penalised as and when the co-op finds a way to compensate the poor old buyer with some especially cheap milk, (3) if there is no buyer, the other producers for the co-op who will have to make up the loss on the fixed price contract and finally (4) the producer who signs up to the fixed price and loses some future margin which may or may not be there.

Of those potential losers, I'd rather be at risk of falling into category (4) than an unwilling member of category (2) or (3), and on that basis it strikes me as the sensible card to play regardless.

However - everyone is different, it's not a deal to take if you feel you would be aggrieved by losing out on future higher prices if and when they come. Also better to take it on only a chunk of milk where possible. Hedge the Hedge.

WheatenBriar

Aye, you can be pretty sure Giil has its sums well done on the 32c fixed price thing,a buyer is there at small volumes
It makes great press,certain in the knowledge that farmers representatives aren't as good in the media as the sure in their big salaries glanbia boffins

In my experience,going back nearly 40 years most of the so called ag and ag industry 'experts' couldn't predict ice in a frost to be honest

keep going

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye, you can be pretty sure Giil has its sums well done on the 32c fixed price thing,a buyer is there at small volumes
It makes great press,certain in the knowledge that farmers representatives aren't as good in the media as the sure in their big salaries glanbia boffins

In my experience,going back nearly 40 years most of the so called ag and ag industry 'experts' couldn't predict ice in a frost to be honest

just for the fun of it whats yer stab at predicting milk price,mine is sub 30 for the whole of next year with a rise in 20 17,if it comes early 2017 prices could hit 33 to 35 if it comes late 2017 we will serious money in 2018.i expect milk production to drive on in 2016 in eu and usa but the bell to finally toll in 20 17 and probally see a general commodity rise in 2017.all predicitions subject to war:eek:

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye, you can be pretty sure Giil has its sums well done on the 32c fixed price thing,a buyer is there at small volumes
It makes great press,certain in the knowledge that farmers representatives aren't as good in the media as the sure in their big salaries glanbia boffins

In my experience,going back nearly 40 years most of the so called ag and ag industry 'experts' couldn't predict ice in a frost to be honest

Reading the IDB presentation the other day I got the impression that they were "handing around" a limited number of fixed price contracts to various co-ops. What I don't get is whether those arise from their own manufacture or an external buyer.

I'm not quite sure of the structure here so could be wrong but it is possible I suppose that some of the margin in these fixed price deals is - in fact - simply the manufacturing premium by another name.

For example, consider that I milk cows and make cheese. Depending on how I allocate my margins I could pay myself anything between 23c / litre (the global market price) and 55c / litre for my milk (because my milk and the mode of it's production is an essential part of the cheese story), both of which extremes are perfectly justifiable from an accounting perspective.

Under those circumstances it would hardly bother me to label a proportion of my milk as "35c" or "40c" for the next two years - I'd make slightly less profit on the cheese, but that would all come out in the wash as I'd be making it on the milk in the short term.

That's a very different situation to having a genuine unconnected commodity buyer in the wings looking to fix commodity milk as a hedge against a future price rise - which is what we all hope exists in the case of these fixed price offerings. In that case, his future loss is our future gain (and vice versa), quite unlike the manufacturing example.

That's where the lack of transparency makes things difficult.

frazzledhome

Greengrass1 wrote: »

39.15 here.
5.13 bf
4.07 p

Be a while again before we see 55c for winter milk

Add your reply here.
38.87 F 4.71 P 4.03
38.97 F 4.73 P 4.04

That's inc Winter, lactose bonus, 1c fro Coop and vat
Excluding winter bonus it would've been 30.87 so that's 6.87 in solids above base.