Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

The Man deserves a cigar. A biggish one.

And a large glass of 50yr old Château de Montifaud cognac...

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

I heard he got 36c in 2015 and that's with runts of cows, no roofs and above all cows eating grass. Added to that is 5c in stock sales including "valueless" calves

He also knows the grass isn't free but does know how much it costs

Conjecture (?) or do you know him?


I do hope he can repeat or even better those returns for '16.

mf240

quader wrote: »

:eek:told today by a rep that dairygold are droping the price by 2 cent anyone else here this :eek:

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

Class!


This from the man that gave us the excellent quotes...
"Diet feeder...me hole!" etc etc



Brilliant!

mahoney_j

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dutch-farmers-paid-e14m-limiting-milk-supply/

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dutch-farmers-paid-e14m-limiting-milk-supply/

That's the shot, hope they keep it up

whelan2

Any word on lakelands januay price

freedominacup

whelan2 wrote: »

Any word on lakelands januay price

Is there something you're not telling us????😉

whelan2

freedominacup wrote: »

Is there something you're not telling us????😉

wishful thinking, no they normally get paid on 15th-a full 3 days before us- so was wondering was their price set yet

C0N0R

whelan2 wrote: »

wishful thinking, no they normally get paid on 15th-a full 3 days before us- so was wondering was their price set yet

Ten days before me!

einn32

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

In 1973, when we joined the EEC, there were some 145,000 dairy farmers in Ireland.

In 2016, there are some 17,500 dairy farmers, iirc.

Off farm employment is hugely attractive in terms of wages and hours worked so there will nearly always be a stronger pull off farm than on farm.

But is this not a trend seen for years now? Less dairy farms in USA and EU? I think only NZ has seen a slower rate of the number of dairy farms declining.

pedigree 6

Just listened to kevin lane CEO of Ornua on countrywide talking about the success and uniqueness of Kerrygold butter worldwide.
He was at pains to show how our milk that goes into it is different and comes from small to medium sized farms and it's the grass that gives it it's unique flavour.

Then Damien asked him about milk price being paid to dairy farmers this year and Kevin lobbed us into the world price that every other dairy farmer around the world is getting. So unique product but average price. Rant over.:o

WheatenBriar

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Just listened to kevin lane CEO of Ornua on countrywide talking about the success and uniqueness of Kerrygold butter worldwide.
He was at pains to show how our milk that goes into it is different and comes from small to medium sized farms and it's the grass that gives it it's unique flavour.

Then Damien asked him about milk price being paid to dairy farmers this year and Kevin lobbed us into the world price that every other dairy farmer around the world is getting. So unique product but average price. Rant over.:o

Aye, you were afraid to mention the figure he had,I see

24c with good constituents
A 4 to 6c drop in base price this year,so a base price in the range 18 to 20c a litre inc vat

I can see lads paying €300+ an acre for land at that price...

whelan2

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye, you were afraid to mention the figure he had,I see

24c with good constituents
A 4 to 6c drop in base price this year,so a base price in the range 18 to 20c a litre inc vat

I can see lads paying €300+ an acre for land at that price...

is that the Glanbia price or the country average? Will adapt a wait and see approach here

WheatenBriar

whelan2 wrote: »

is that the Glanbia price or the country average? Will adapt a wait and see approach here

Country average
Giil are usually 2c below that :eek: a leading price...

jaymla627

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Just listened to kevin lane CEO of Ornua on countrywide talking about the success and uniqueness of Kerrygold butter worldwide.
He was at pains to show how our milk that goes into it is different and comes from small to medium sized farms and it's the grass that gives it it's unique flavour.

Then Damien asked him about milk price being paid to dairy farmers this year and Kevin lobbed us into the world price that every other dairy farmer around the world is getting. So unique product but average price. Rant over.:o

Ornua and all the processors really have dairy farmers by the balls so to speak going into this year and next simpley because dairying is a 3 year cycle when you take into account expanding and bringing through in calf heifers and maidens....
Everyone expanding already has their 2016 heifers calving down and their maidens ready to go to the bull this spring along with the future batch of calves for 2018, along with in most cases the sheds/parlours in place to cater for the extra numbers, if prices remain on the floor going through 2016/2017 we are all still going to pump out milk cause the cows are their and been ultimate optimists will try and stick in hoping for better times......
It will be 2019 before a serious drop off could occur in milk production here and ultimately worldwide assuming prices are still crap as lads wise up,cut back numbers cull cows drastically and get off the heifer rearing train
So basically glanbia and Co can play the short game for the next 3 years and be guaranteed lots of milk and extra production and then maybe worry about losing suppliers facing reduced supplies but their on the pigs back at the minute and hold all the cards

Deepsouthwest

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye, you were afraid to mention the figure he had,I see

24c with good constituents
A 4 to 6c drop in base price this year,so a base price in the range 18 to 20c a litre inc vat

I can see lads paying €300+ an acre for land at that price...

Did he really predict a base of 18/20c for nxt yr? That's a v scary prediction

WheatenBriar

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Did he really predict a base of 18/20c for nxt yr? That's a v scary prediction

He worded it roughly thus
30c average with good solids 2015
I suppose we're looking at 24c in 2016

So yeah 6c off base.

pedigree 6

WheatenBriar wrote: »

He worded it roughly thus
30c average with good solids 2015
I suppose we're looking at 24c in 2016

So yeah 6c off base.

I had to listen to it again. Yea average 24c that's 22c to 27c.
I can sense this year is going to be a year of protests.

Here's the interview.
http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=b9%5F20934007%5F1523%5F13%2D02%2D2016%5F

Hope he's wrong....

Farmer Ed

He still had money available to go investing in Chinese processing. You would have imagined if returns were tight, every cent needs to be got back by the farmer. You'd wonder are these guys in touch with what's happening on the ground? will Kevin be taking a pay cut this year?

kowtow

WheatenBriar wrote:

He worded it roughly thus 30c average with good solids 2015 I suppose we're looking at 24c in 2016

What would that put the "top 10%" at, solids & price wise?

Farmer Ed

kowtow wrote: »

What would that put the "top 10%" at, solids & price wise?

I can understand why people might want to take a look at what the top 10% of milk might make. But the reality is 90% of milk won't make that price. The only true way to compare milk price is to compare like with like. The fact is the standard price for milk of 3.6F and 3.3P is less today than it was 30 years ago
Yes there has been improvements in solids on a lot of farms but I think it is a bit worrying that this can be used to mask the real price being paid for milk.

frazzledhome

jaymla627 wrote: »

Ornua and all the processors really have dairy farmers by the balls so to speak going into this year and next simpley because dairying is a 3 year cycle when you take into account expanding and bringing through in calf heifers and maidens....
Everyone expanding already has their 2016 heifers calving down and their maidens ready to go to the bull this spring along with the future batch of calves for 2018, along with in most cases the sheds/parlours in place to cater for the extra numbers, if prices remain on the floor going through 2016/2017 we are all still going to pump out milk cause the cows are their and been ultimate optimists will try and stick in hoping for better times......
It will be 2019 before a serious drop off could occur in milk production here and ultimately worldwide assuming prices are still crap as lads wise up,cut back numbers cull cows drastically and get off the heifer rearing train
So basically glanbia and Co can play the short game for the next 3 years and be guaranteed lots of milk and extra production and then maybe worry about losing suppliers facing reduced supplies but their on the pigs back at the minute and hold all the cards

60% of our herd in calf to non dairy this year. I recon maiden heifers will be got for taking away and if not in calf/calved will be gotten for good value

Market good for good xbred stick to the UK.

Wouldn't be as pessimistic as that. If this couldn't be seen coming I really don't know what people are looking at.

Regards 2019 being recovery, nobody knows. All that people can do is manage their own business.

It's going to be about cash flow and nothing else for the foreseeable.

The heifer game has been a mugs game for many years with only the cost of producing than being returned and only just.

What this is going to do is expose the business' over borrowed on bad debt. I think this may have been mentioned as far back as two years ago.

20silkcut

Would dairy farmers be better off reducing cow numbers and mix things up again and grow their own feed either barley or fodder beet.
I know many are not set up for such an enterprise but the sale of cows could go a long way to funding such a move and it would be small scale enough. How many acres of Barley would feed 80-100 cows.
A good few farms in my area have old grain silos on their farms so this did make sense once upon a time. Might take some of the heat out of the dairy market. I got rubbished here about 12 months ago for suggesting the right move was to get out of dairying. While that was tongue in cheek and off the wall it does not look so outlandish now.
When every one runs on the same direction there is a crash. While not suggesting running in the opposite direction maybe a few different directions should be tried.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

60% of our herd in calf to non dairy this year. I recon maiden heifers will be got for taking away and if not in calf/calved will be gotten for good value

Market good for good xbred stick to the UK.

Wouldn't be as pessimistic as that. If this couldn't be seen coming I really don't know what people are looking at.

Regards 2019 being recovery, nobody knows. All that people can do is manage their own business.

It's going to be about cash flow and nothing else for the foreseeable.

The heifer game has been a mugs game for many years with only the cost of producing than being returned and only just.

What this is going to do is expose the business' over borrowed on bad debt. I think this may have been mentioned as far back as two years ago.

+1.
Yes you did predict this up to two years ago...

Took the weekend to go to the match with an old friend of mine. He works for a large PLC and even though milk would have nothing to do with his brief, a colleague was there also and he would fairly well informed on milk market.
His view was that the milk market is very like wheat right now. Too much product and a weak market. He thinks that the build up of product in storage is going to prolong the low.
He also said that things could get a bit worse for farmers as Coops can't keep subbing farmers price forever...

Dawggone

20silkcut wrote: »

Would dairy farmers be better off reducing cow numbers and mix things up again and grow their own feed either barley or fodder beet.
I know many are not set up for such an enterprise but the sale of cows could go a long way to funding such a move and it would be small scale enough. How many acres of Barley would feed 80-100 cows.
A good few farms in my area have old grain silos on their farms so this did make sense once upon a time. Might take some of the heat out of the dairy market. I got rubbished here about 12 months ago for suggesting the right move was to get out of dairying. While that was tongue in cheek and off the wall it does not look so outlandish now.
When every one runs on the same direction there is a crash. While not suggesting running in the opposite direction maybe a few different directions should be tried.

It's cheaper to buy cereals than to grow them...
The dip in prices is not due to Ireland's expansion, it's worldwide.
The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

It's cheaper to buy cereals than to grow them...
The dip in prices is not due to Ireland's expansion, it's worldwide.
The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

100% correct.

2 very ordinary teams

Deepsouthwest

Dawggone wrote: »

It's cheaper to buy cereals than to grow them...
The dip in prices is not due to Ireland's expansion, it's worldwide.
The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

This is scarily correct, nearly every farmer I know is milking more cows this yr, myself included, just in case there isn't enough milk out there already.
The race to the bottom is well and truly underway!

Brown Podzol

Dawggone wrote: »

It's cheaper to buy cereals than to grow them...
The dip in prices is not due to Ireland's expansion, it's worldwide.
The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

I hear that soya hulls are avalaible at €127/ton ex port. Far cheaper than grass silage and cheaper than grazed grass from land costing €250 to lease.

keep going

Brown Podzol wrote: »

I hear that soya hulls are avalaible at €127/ton ex port. Far cheaper than grass silage and cheaper than grazed grass from land costing €250 to lease.

What would that be tipped on the farm, add 20 a ton ?.on the whole land rent, I hear of leases renegotiation but no one I know has done it, is it happening.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

100% correct.

2 very ordinary teams

Poor spectacle indeed.


The hospitality was excellent though.

Dawggone

Brown Podzol wrote: »

I hear that soya hulls are avalaible at €127/ton ex port. Far cheaper than grass silage and cheaper than grazed grass from land costing €250 to lease.

To extrapolate on your post Brown...wouldn't it be better to buy in better feeds than grass?...then produce more milk from Holsteins?


Just saying.

patsy_mccabe

Dawggone wrote: »

It's cheaper to buy cereals than to grow them...
The dip in prices is not due to Ireland's expansion, it's worldwide.
The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

Teagasc starting preaching this mantra about diluting fixed costs to Beef farmers about 5 years ago too. This race to the bottom happens in every industry. The consumer is king, as they say.
I was reading an article on Tom Browne in youghal last night. Over 1000 cows now and a production cost of 20 cents/litre. What's stopping someone like that to keep on expanding, apart from land availability.

jaymla627

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Teagasc starting preaching this mantra about diluting fixed costs to Beef farmers about 5 years ago too. This race to the bottom happens in every industry. The consumer is king, as they say.
I was reading an article on Tom Browne in youghal last night. Over 1000 cows now and a production cost of 20 cents/litre. What's stopping someone like that to keep on expanding, apart from land availability.

Profit monitor cost is 20 cent a litre not total production cost, if all the ins and outs of the business where taken into account /debt levels per cow etc given the massive amounts of money that has been invested to reach that number, the true production costs would be alot closer to 30 then 20

RightTurnClyde

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Teagasc starting preaching this mantra about diluting fixed costs to Beef farmers about 5 years ago too. This race to the bottom happens in every industry. The consumer is king, as they say.
I was reading an article on Tom Browne in youghal last night. Over 1000 cows now and a production cost of 20 cents/litre. What's stopping someone like that to keep on expanding, apart from land availability.

His cost of production was 30c 18 months ago (page 16)
http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2014/3212/Large_Dairy_Herd_Open_Day260614.pdf

Dawggone

Heard on French news that milk processors are being called into government offices next week to be dragged over the coals by the ministers of Ag and Finance....


Won't be too long before political interference at a national or EU level...

barnaman

But can they interfere? WTO agreements reached on all this and with export subsidies being phased out where is all the milk to go?
In Ireland massive oversupply as everyone knows map here http://www.icos.ie/2016/01/ shows it well. We are in a defaltionary world and thats the thing that has everyone spooked. This even feeds into me as a suckler farmer as with so many lads producing cross calves the market for straight beef calves in particular heifer calves will I think take a big hit. hoping on my store beef side to buy in stock alot cheaper but with beef prices also going south I need to

keep going

Dawggone wrote: »

To extrapolate on your post Brown...wouldn't it be better to buy in better feeds than grass?...then produce more milk from Holsteins?


Just saying.

Currently ration cheaper than silage not grass, now how do I get my hands on all this cheap imported dm because the millers are still 250 a ton for it

Brown Podzol

keep going wrote: »

What would that be tipped on the farm, add 20 a ton ?.on the whole land rent, I hear of leases renegotiation but no one I know has done it, is it happening.

Depends on the terms. A miller could add 30%, I know a pig farmer with an account in RH Hall and cost is €6 haulage tipped and payment within six days.

Leases are unraveling according to an auctioneer aquaintenance. Ten year leases unravelling after twelve months. Tax implications.

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

Heard on French news that milk processors are being called into government offices next week to be dragged over the coals by the ministers of Ag and Finance....


Won't be too long before political interference at a national or EU level...

The thing is dawg the amount of milk that's in question is tiny. The republic of Ireland not even the whole island accounted for more than a third of the volume increase across the EU. This was roughly the same as NZ's volume reduction for the year. Mind you the Dutch had roughly the same volume increase which moved them to parity with NZ on a volume basis. Funilly enough you'll never hear the market analysts running from the market screaming "the Dutch are coming, The Dutch are coming" the way they would if the kiwis increased output by 5%. Funny that 20 billon litres in the arse end of the south Pacific can change market sentiment on the basis of how it might be effected by a weather system but 20 billion litres in western Europe can be ignored . Doesn't smell like a lot of people between us and our markets are distorting our prices on a very slim premise at all.

WheatenBriar

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Teagasc starting preaching this mantra about diluting fixed costs to Beef farmers about 5 years ago too. This race to the bottom happens in every industry. The consumer is king, as they say.
I was reading an article on Tom Browne in youghal last night. Over 1000 cows now and a production cost of 20 cents/litre. What's stopping someone like that to keep on expanding, apart from land availability.

Paper never refusing ink for one
Even if that cost per litre were possible, no bank would fund Irelands average size to that level at current prices
Any farmer with the resources (a lotto win being the only thing I can think of) would be insane to plough it into an enterprise that requres as much time and other commitments as dairying when many more lucrative options are available

Someone made the point a few days ago of the DG sales rep telling the customer of the impending price drops
And someone replied,that we the shareholders were going to be asking soon where's the cutbacks in wages at processor level

As usual thats not happening because the processor is the fcuker and as ever the farmer who takes all the risk and difficult to unravel committments is the fcukee

barnaman

Brown Podzol wrote: »

keep going wrote: »

What would that be tipped on the farm, add 20 a ton ?.on the whole land rent, I hear of leases renegotiation but no one I know has done it, is it happening.

Depends on the terms. A miller could add 30%, I know a pig farmer with an account in RH Hall and cost is €6 haulage tipped and payment within six days.

Leases are unraveling according to an auctioneer aquaintenance. Ten year leases unravelling after twelve months. Tax implications.

Going to be alot of court cases for breach of contract with leases going. For example if you used the land in 2015 to get entitlements no good saying sorry lad the milk price is gone cannot afford it here it is back!. People renting the land may have borrowed themselves on basis getting in an income over a 10 year period could all get messy.

Brown Podzol

Dawggone wrote: »

To extrapolate on your post Brown...wouldn't it be better to buy in better feeds than grass?...then produce more milk from Holsteins?


Just saying.

But we have the grass, have to use it now, can't store it until grains get expensive.

But your right, so thinking of ensiling with first cut silage and not bother with any other forage or maybe molassed beet pulp and get the free preservation.:D

keep going

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Depends on the terms. A miller could add 30%, I know a pig farmer with an account in RH Hall and cost is €6 haulage tipped and payment within six days.

Leases are unraveling according to an auctioneer aquaintenance. Ten year leases unravelling after twelve months. Tax implications.

Is tax only a problem if the renter pulls out not if rent is reduced

Deepsouthwest

freedominacup wrote: »

The thing is dawg the amount of milk that's in question is tiny. The republic of Ireland not even the whole island accounted for more than a third of the volume increase across the EU. This was roughly the same as NZ's volume reduction for the year. Mind you the Dutch had roughly the same volume increase which moved them to parity with NZ on a volume basis. Funilly enough you'll never hear the market analysts running from the market screaming "the Dutch are coming, The Dutch are coming" the way they would if the kiwis increased output by 5%. Funny that 20 billon litres in the arse end of the south Pacific can change market sentiment on the basis of how it might be effected by a weather system but 20 billion litres in western Europe can be ignored . Doesn't smell like a lot of people between us and our markets are distorting our prices on a very slim premise at all.

To be fair the Dutch are the masters of Ag PR!

freedominacup

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

To be fair the Dutch are the masters of Ag PR!

Point is Dsw the analysts who would put milk price in a tailspin on the basis of an extra billion litres of production in NZ pass no remarks on the same volume and percentage increase in Holland despite the fact that it puts the same amount of extra production inplay globally.

Dawggone

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Depends on the terms. A miller could add 30%, I know a pig farmer with an account in RH Hall and cost is €6 haulage tipped and payment within six days.

Leases are unraveling according to an auctioneer aquaintenance. Ten year leases unravelling after twelve months. Tax implications.

Dairy farmers could learn a thing or two from pig farmers.

Leases can't unravel unless both sides agree. I know if I had contracts signed for 7 or 10yrs, I'd be marching him/her up the steps...Jeez the arrogance!

Dawggone

keep going wrote: »

Currently ration cheaper than silage not grass, now how do I get my hands on all this cheap imported dm because the millers are still 250 a ton for it

Use straights.
Millers are pocketing €100/ton on 'nuts'.

I can't understand why people question the purchase of a bit of kit (or whatever) and then put a hundred quid into millers pockets for a ton of questionable feed.

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

Dairy farmers could learn a thing or two from pig farmers.

Leases can't unravel unless both sides agree. I know if I had contracts signed for 7 or 10yrs, I'd be marching him/her up the steps...Jeez the arrogance!

You need serious volumes to deal with the importers directly. That said most merchants wouldn't want huge handling charges for cod on full loads directly from the docks. Especially if you were taking directly from the ship.

Leases can and do unravel dawg. I'd have no sympathy for tenants in your part of the world where the pitch is queered in favour of the tenant by govt intervention. Here tenants are on the wrong side of the pitch.

Dawggone

Brown Podzol wrote: »

But we have the grass, have to use it now, can't store it until grains get expensive.

But your right, so thinking of ensiling with first cut silage and not bother with any other forage or maybe molassed beet pulp and get the free preservation.:D

+1.
How many of you guys are forward buying/fixing feed prices?
Now mightn't be a bad time to consider it.
Dairy farmers need to look at things a little differently now that quotas are gone.