Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

The thing is dawg the amount of milk that's in question is tiny. The republic of Ireland not even the whole island accounted for more than a third of the volume increase across the EU. This was roughly the same as NZ's volume reduction for the year. Mind you the Dutch had roughly the same volume increase which moved them to parity with NZ on a volume basis. Funilly enough you'll never hear the market analysts running from the market screaming "the Dutch are coming, The Dutch are coming" the way they would if the kiwis increased output by 5%. Funny that 20 billon litres in the arse end of the south Pacific can change market sentiment on the basis of how it might be effected by a weather system but 20 billion litres in western Europe can be ignored . Doesn't smell like a lot of people between us and our markets are distorting our prices on a very slim premise at all.

Who's blaming oversupply for the drop in milk price? It's a mix of factors. Drop in demand...commodities down across the board (bar gold) etc.
Its all back to Kowtow's 'arbitrage'.


I was a guest of an Irish PLC in Paris yesterday...no shortage of champagne etc. and the week before they were in Cape Canaveral for the launch of a space rocket...

Who's paying?

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

You need serious volumes to deal with the importers directly. That said most merchants wouldn't want huge handling charges for cod on full loads directly from the docks. Especially if you were taking directly from the ship.

Leases can and do unravel dawg. I'd have no sympathy for tenants in your part of the world where the pitch is queered in favour of the tenant by govt intervention. Here tenants are on the wrong side of the pitch.

+1 on your first paragraph.

-1 on your second paragraph. I totally disagree. Who/what forced farmers to sign up for large money?
FFS! Is it a dairy farmer thing?
You sign --> you pay!! End of.

keep going

Dawggone wrote: »

Use straights.
Millers are pocketing €100/ton on 'nuts'.

I can't understand why people question the purchase of a bit of kit (or whatever) and then put a hundred quid into millers pockets for a ton of questionable feed.

At 4he risk of repeating myself, when posed this question 6 months ago I was told i was nuts.my theory is once you buy the bin you have to get nuts from a merchant unless yovu go diet feeder .a simpler system is to use parlour feeders with sone sort of straight simple mixs but only to repkace silage not grass

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

-1 on your second paragraph. I totally disagree. Who/what forced farmers to sign up for large money?
FFS! Is it a dairy farmer thing?
You sign --> you pay!! End of.

A distorted market forced the large money. The list of distortions is endless.And tbh I've had more bad experiences with landlords than good ones. Have absolutely no sympathy for them.

Good sized block of arable ground for rent in this area being farmed by leasor until the end of last year. Story at the start was lessor was looking for the right tenant and money was not going to be only criteria in the decision as to the successful tenant. That didn't last long. €250/acre plus aid payments was the last price I heard. At least one beef farmer still in the hunt by his own admission.

blackdog1

keep going wrote: »

At 4he risk of repeating myself, when posed this question 6 months ago I was told i was nuts.my theory is once you buy the bin you have to get nuts from a merchant unless yovu go diet feeder .a simpler system is to use parlour feeders with sone sort of straight simple mixs but only to repkace silage not grass

I put straights through the bin. If you make a nut costs you 10 Euro more. At the moment protein is a killer as it's an extra cost for this time of the year. Soya is 340-370 a tonne.

Dawggone

blackdog1 wrote: »

I put straights through the bin. If you make a nut costs you 10 Euro more. At the moment protein is a killer as it's an extra cost for this time of the year. Soya is 340-370 a tonne.

Someone is taking the p1ss.
Soya easily bought sub €300/ton.

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

A distorted market forced the large money. The list of distortions is endless.And tbh I've had more bad experiences with landlords than good ones. Have absolutely no sympathy for them.

Good sized block of arable ground for rent in this area being earned by leasor until the end of last year. Story at the start was lessor was looking for the right tenant and money was not going to be only criteria in the decision as to the successful tenant. That didn't last long. €250/acre plus aid payments was the last price I heard. At least one beef farmer still in the hunt by his own admission.

Landlords wouldn't be my best buddies either. But if you sign up for x amount of years for x amount of euros, then that's it. I've signed plenty contracts that later proved bad decisions, just grin and bear it.
If your Coop fixed a milk price with you and after one year decided to hell with it, there would be blood!
Because it's between farmers doesn't change a thing. I repeat, if I was the landlord I would march him into court.

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

Landlords wouldn't be my best buddies either. But if you sign up for x amount of years for x amount of euros, then that's it. I've signed plenty contracts that later proved bad decisions, just grin and bear it.
If your Coop fixed a milk price with you and after one year decided to hell with it, there would be blood!
Because it's between farmers doesn't change a thing. I repeat, if I was the landlord I would march him into court.

Tbh ut would probably be the best thing that could happen to the long term lease market. That might take some of the heat out of it.

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

Tbh ut would probably be the best thing that could happen to the long term lease market. That might take some of the heat out of it.

+1000.
Farmers need to learn the consequences of running with the herd.
Tillage and dairy farmers drove the market. Landlords took the money. If land rental went to €1000/acre the landlord that wanted to break an existing lease would be told where to go...

jaymla627

Dawggone wrote: »

+1000.
Farmers need to learn the consequences of running with the herd.
Tillage and dairy farmers drove the market. Landlords took the money. If land rental went to €1000/acre the landlord that wanted to break an existing lease would be told where to go...

180 acres beside us that a tillage man walked away from this year after tilling/ploughing it and was left to grow the finest crop of weeds imaginable, he sub-letted it to a potato crowd the year before who destroyed it when harvesting....
Approached the owner about a lease and was told 300 a acre, for ground that is basically f**ked for want of a better word hasn't seen a bag of pk/slurry/lime in 20 odd years and 80 acres would be very wet marginal ground not to mention the problem of the four foot crops of redshank growing away over large patches at present....
Was thinking myself a 100 an acre would be the max payable that made any sense given I was going to have to turn around and spend a small fortune on reseeding/liming and trying to get the ground right, the owner didn't seem to agree haha...

Dawggone

jaymla627 wrote: »

180 acres beside us that a tillage man walked away from this year after tilling/ploughing it and was left to grow the finest crop of weeds imaginable, he sub-letted it to a potato crowd the year before who destroyed it when harvesting....
Approached the owner about a lease and was told 300 a acre, for ground that is basically f**ked for want of a better word hasn't seen a bag of pk/slurry/lime in 20 odd years and 80 acres would be very wet marginal ground not to mention the problem of the four foot crops of redshank growing away over large patches at present....
Was thinking myself a 100 an acre would be the max payable that made any sense given I was going to have to turn around and spend a small fortune on reseeding/liming and trying to get the ground right, the owner didn't seem to agree haha...

If the real value of rental land beside you is €100/acre, what would be a realistic price/acre to buy it?

blackdog1

Dawggone wrote: »

Someone is taking the p1ss.
Soya easily bought sub €300/ton.

Are you on French prices? So far that's the best I'm hearing for 4 tonne load. Pm me if anyone is getting it for under 340

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

If the real value of rental land beside you is €100/acre, what would be a realistic price/acre to buy it?

There's the question

Most answers, one bid higher than the guy who comes second

Dawggone

blackdog1 wrote: »

Are you on French prices? So far that's the best I'm hearing for 4 tonne load. Pm me if anyone is getting it for under 340

Blackdog the majority of soya comes from South America, I don't think the shipping charges would be any different landed to Ireland or France.

You (and all farmers) are well able to fix a price when there is value to be had. The farmer mentality of heading to the Coop/Merchant the day you need something is gone with the flood...only one winner there.
Fertiliser is another good example. Most of the blenders in Ireland bought at the wrong time (myself included!), but who's paying?

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

There's the question

Most answers, one bid higher than the guy who comes second

Lol.

keep going

blackdog1 wrote: »

I put straights through the bin. If you make a nut costs you 10 Euro more. At the moment protein is a killer as it's an extra cost for this time of the year. Soya is 340-370 a tonne.

How do you do that

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

The problem with low prices is that they have to go really low before farmers destock, the first reaction is to produce more to dilute fixed costs...

Which should in turn accelerate the drop in prices leading to a faster thorough clear out and turn in the cycle.

One reason why processors dressing up the price and unions demanding intervention means farmers get paid less, for longer.

blackdog1

keep going wrote: »

How do you do that

Just tell them what ingredients you want and tell them you don't want it in but form.

blackdog1

Dawggone wrote: »

Blackdog the majority of soya comes from South America, I don't think the shipping charges would be any different landed to Ireland or France.

You (and all farmers) are well able to fix a price when there is value to be had. The farmer mentality of heading to the Coop/Merchant the day you need something is gone with the flood...only one winner there.
Fertiliser is another good example. Most of the blenders in Ireland bought at the wrong time (myself included!), but who's paying?

You can get urea for 280 and we end up paying 340-365. I'll have to shop around again but those prices are extremely hard to impossible to get here.oh and I agree with you merchants are taking the piss here...

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Which should in turn accelerate the drop in prices leading to a faster thorough clear out and turn in the cycle.

One reason why processors dressing up the price and unions demanding intervention means farmers get paid less, for longer.

Bang on.
However your 'ideal' of the selfish, greedy markets isn't as pure/ruthless as you'd like...fortunately.

I say fortunately because dairy farmers aren't ready for that just yet. Three decades of protected markets tends to dull certain skills.

whelan2

Are AIB still backing brave?

Dawggone

blackdog1 wrote: »

You can get urea for 280 and we end up paying 340-365. I'll have to shop around again but those prices are extremely hard to impossible to get here.oh and I agree with you merchants are taking the piss here...

There's the rub...I bought prills at €301 but gran Urea is now freely available sub €280.
Lesson is to never, ever, take advice from me....

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

If the real value of rental land beside you is €100/acre, what would be a realistic price/acre to buy it?

2 maybe 3 grand an acre. If we get strong inflation during the mortgage you'll come out ok paying more, but borrow from an Irish Bank in case you end up repaying in punt.

kowtow

whelan2 wrote:

Are AIB still backing brave?

They're backing absolutely anyone brave enough to hand over the deeds.

mf240

whelan2 wrote: »

Are AIB still backing brave?

Yip into a corner.

Although they seem to have scaled back there expectations. There ads now feature an elserly man buying a used volkswagon.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

2 maybe 3 grand an acre. If we get strong inflation during the mortgage you'll come out ok paying more, but borrow from an Irish Bank in case you end up repaying in punt.

What kind of risk (%) would you put on a €uro breakup?

If you borrow in euro you pay back in euro?

barnaman

Took out a nice six figure loan with AIB past few months they like their security! Had guts of 400 acres good land book value of 4 million and still painful to get! No other borrowings until this one. had to provide twice land security to loan value.

Sam Kade

barnaman wrote: »

Took out a nice six figure loan with AIB past few months they like their security! Had guts of 400 acres good land book value of 4 million and still painful to get! No other borrowings until this one. had to provide twice land security to loan value.

And also pay solicitor fees both ways :mad:

Dawggone

barnaman wrote: »

Took out a nice six figure loan with AIB past few months they like their security! Had guts of 400 acres good land book value of 4 million and still painful to get! No other borrowings until this one. had to provide twice land security to loan value.

I hope it works out for you Barnaman.
Interesting times. Will you go again? Murder is always easier the second time around!

I wouldn't have given that kind of security. But that's me.

barnaman

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

Dawggone

barnaman wrote: »

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

5.3%.
Is that fixed over the term?

kowtow

Depends on the contract, should be ok with a loan governed exclusively by Irish law. Irish law changing back to punt would redenominate euro obligations at whatever the changeover rate was.

But it's not a given particularly with cross border loans. Irish law can't touch a loan under a foreign jurisdiction so you'd still owe in euro and end up paying in punt earnings which might well hurt. There is sometimes but not always a small loophole for land / property obligations.

A euro breakup? Not a high chance in the very short term, but higher than anyone would like to think in the medium term. No amount of political vanity can plaster over the fact that you cant share a currency without sharing sovereignty.

And you can't share sovereignty for ever.

fepper

barnaman wrote: »

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

Your lucky you still have the 400 acres to work with anyway

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Depends on the contract, should be ok with a loan governed exclusively by Irish law.

But it's not a given particularly with cross border loans.

A euro breakup? Not a high chance in the very short term, but higher than anyone would like to think in the medium term. No amount of political vanity can plaster over the fact that you cant share a currency without sharing sovereignty.

And you can't share sovereignty for ever.

I didn't know that...I always thought that loans in $/€/£ paid in that currency. What about a major devaluation of the punt on exit of the euro?
Would be good business to borrow in euro and pray for a breakup...

The euro as a project is stumbling along...even though sovereignty is gradually being lost...
Explains the rise of extreme right wing politics and nationalism across the EU

barnaman

Dawggone wrote: »

barnaman wrote: »

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

5.3%.
Is that fixed over the term?

Add your reply here.

No worse luck! Base of 0 plus 5.4 so if int rates were 5 I would be paying 10.4%!

barnaman

fepper wrote: »

barnaman wrote: »

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

Your lucky you still have the 400 acres to work with anyway

Add your reply here.

You are right and I cannot complain but its mad how difficult is make money out of it! Had to do up buisness plans audittted accounts and projected earning over 5 years! Was nothing special when looked at. Asked my advisor about land costs ie that to get me where I am would cost 4 mill. He said land costs are not taken into account in projected earnings! By way farm was valued at 60000/year rental value by bank relied on that too to get the loan.

Dawggone

barnaman wrote: »

Add your reply here.

You are right and I cannot complain but its mad how difficult is make money out of it! Had to do up buisness plans audittted accounts and projected earning over 5 years! Was nothing special when looked at. Asked my advisor about land costs ie that to get me where I am would cost 4 mill. He said land costs are not taken into account in projected earnings! By way farm was valued at 60000/year rental value by bank relied on that too to get the loan.

Interesting that your bank values the rent of the property at circa €150/acre p.a....

barnaman

yeah and its top quality well over 350 acres of it are. (wood and one wet/rushy bit by a river that could be reclaimed)
That was what the Bank's ag advisor put on it only discovered after first loan was approved. Manager said he had it run past the AIB ag advior for Tipp.

Sam Kade

Dawggone wrote: »

Interesting that your bank values the rent of the property at circa €150/acre p.a....

Good tillage land is making €300/acre and over.

barnaman

Guessing banks are conservative? 15 year loan so not sure if they price in risk of rents dropping.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

I didn't know that...I always thought that loans in $/€/£ paid in that currency.

An exit would normally be the reverse of an entrance. Iirc there was a conversion of punt obligations in 2002?

Mind you on recent form our politicians would probably switch to the punt and then arrange for us to pay euro loans in gold or orphan's tears.

whelan2

barnaman wrote: »

have 300k borrowed was 150k and then doubles it to 3 hope build sheds etc this year. at 5.4% interest! Was thinking going to dairying as farm ideal for it had a lad approach me about a partnership but thankfully left it! Farm was in tillage for many many years but went into beef 15 years ago. Father used to drink so whole place was/is knackered nothing done here in years; I was gone to England too.
No choice here with borrowing our banks are screwed annoys me having to pay over the odds in interest.

Did you try other banks ?

barnaman

yeah but only 2 avialble to farmers Ulster and BOI. BoI I have a strong dislike for for family reasons. Ulster were ok and would lent same amount but really pressed projected figures. Home id old Georgian place was couple old workers cottages (derlict but roofed still) on land was giving for security Uslter not happy with that wanted greenfield site. Found very very very odd that they not happy with that!

Dawggone

Sam Kade wrote: »

Good tillage land is making €300/acre and over.

It's come back a bit Sam.
Potato growers are still strong in the market.

barnaman

Oh yeah meant to say Ulster sent a lad out to farm to look at it; AIB did not bother!

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

An exit would normally be the reverse of an entrance. Iirc there was a conversion of punt obligations in 2002?

We all scored with the conversion rates of punt to euro, although some made poor use of it.





The powers that be could give lessons on genuflection or even, dare I say it, kowtowing.

But then we are the best in class. German class.
I find it amusing watching politicians arguing about 'fiscal space' as millions are wiped off the ISEC.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

But then we are the best in class. German class. I find it amusing watching politicians arguing about 'fiscal space' as millions are wiped off the ISEC.

Quite.

Fiscal space is the difference between what we're spending now and what we hope the Germans might allow us to borrow in the coming years, net of the payback for the bank guarantee.

They should be cringeing like the rest of us, not crowing about it!

Farmer Ed

kowtow wrote: »

Quite.

Fiscal space is the difference between what we're spending now and what we hope the Germans might allow us to borrow in the coming years, net of the payback for the bank guarantee.

They should be cringeing like the rest of us, not crowing about it!

Kind of ironic as we are about to celebrate 100 years of independence we have really lost our independence.
The way they talk about fiscal space, you'd actually start to think it had something to do with a space program. The semantics of it all is very creative to say the least.

keep going

barnaman wrote: »

Add your reply here.

No worse luck! Base of 0 plus 5.4 so if int rates were 5 I would be paying 10.4%!

That seems very high , fixed for 5 years qvailable at 4% and varible 3.6.

barnaman

As an Agriloan? Mortgage rates at that for sure but not seen any Agri loans that low even though same bloody thing ie loan secured on land.