Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kevthegaff

If quotas come back, im finished with dairy...

keep going

OFFS

boggerman1

Gdt down 2.3%.about 24500 tons on offer

patsy_mccabe

It will be interesting to see what happens. It would be great for Irish farmers, with their lower cost base, if the EU politicians sat back and did nothing, but I can't see that happening.
Can individual countries support their own farmers or does it have to be a pan European agreement?

kowtow

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what happens. It would be great for Irish farmers, with their lower cost base, if the EU politicians sat back and did nothing, but I can't see that happening.
Can individual countries support their own farmers or does it have to be a pan European agreement?

I'd be really surprised if the EU managed to re-inflict quotas, and I suspect it would hurt Ireland hard if they did - I don't accept that our cost base is as low as all that and I reckon a fair few farmers now are depending on pushing out milk in much bigger volumes just to keep things going on a cash accounting basis.

More to the point, EU quotas are hardly likely to help the international markets, US & NZ are more than ready to make up the volume at the first sign of price stability. If we curtailed EU production now NZ would surely breathe a sigh of relief and push on fast.

And in the midst of all that - the EU can hardly shift the intervention price and subsidise Ireland to export unlimited milk to Brussels.

Or perhaps they'll bring back quotas and then simply compensate Ireland in cash for our troubles, sounds like a typical EU / Dublin fix.

Milked out

Dairygold held price for Jan.

vdlounge

milk is milk

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

Loads still in it and it will continue for this year with €7/tonne rebate on all feed and Fertilizer.

A question for yourself, have ye been told yet much ye're milk is being subbed by?

If everyone were to buy a ton of feed and a ton of fert per cow this rebate would ammout to 0.0023 cent per litre.

mf240

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

Totally agree Mf240.
Yes, in a perfect capitalistic world where free markets are totally (ruthlessly) free, it's great to sort the wheat from the chaff.

There is a hell of a lot more to it than that. Farming families. Am I the only one here that gives a damn about people?

Ireland is not NZ. Small farms have been the fabric of rural society across Ireland and indeed France. So after many years of protection we should allow those fragile farms quickly go to the wall?



Believe me when I say that I'm as big a vulture as they come...but there must may be another way. A different way than NZ....produce at one or two pips above CoP and grab scale from your neighbour?
Surely someone can have an 'almost' original thought that doesn't involve putting family farms to the wall?

RightTurnClyde

mf240 wrote: »

Price will bottom out when production falls .

Increasing intervetion will only leave us kicking along the bottom for longer.

+1 Giving life support to the less efficient.
( now weither that's us or "them" is another story)

Dawggone

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

+1 Giving life support to the less efficient.
( now weither that's us or "them" is another story)

Thing is dairy farmers aren't long off life support...
Kowtow and all free marketeers believe in the survival of the fittest. Kowtow also bemoans the total lack of ability to add value to our produce. Maybe add value and keep those small family farms in business?
What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

barnaman

There you go Dawg .. turn milk to plastic enviromental and was very common before WW2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galalith

Personally think will be consolidation; if the Dairy lads are on life support the beef lads are at the corpse house.Decided my best move is get married now to find a teacher.. or a guard//

RightTurnClyde

Dawggone wrote: »

What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

and where the real damage was done was applying the kiwi system up the line. Buy a few dryers and turn as much premium product ( our milk) into junk powder and dump it into the market. No product development, no marketing , no research. While the readymix lorries were rolling into Bellview powder production globally was increasing and powder inventories were rapidly rising in China. Did any of the "suits" question the business plan?

Water John

Right, it isn't as if they weren't told. Another yard of stainless steel over in Mallow.

Farmer Ed

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

and where the real damage was done was applying the kiwi system up the line. Buy a few dryers and turn as much premium product ( our milk) into junk powder and dump it into the market. No product development, no marketing , no research. While the readymix lorries were rolling into Bellview powder production globally was increasing and powder inventories were rapidly rising in China. Did any of the "suits" question the business plan?

Never mind bellview. Just a couple of hours down they Road another drier was being put in place at multiple times what it should cost to duplicate the work being done in bellview. Its like a competition as to who can make the worst investment. With bellview running mallow won't even be needed. When you look back at all the bull about not being able to process all the milk! What spin! And what an unessary waste of farmers money.!

kevthegaff

Dairy men with lower prices will keep expanding, around this townland only 3 guys still milking. 20 yrs ago 10 families. Very sad as Dawggone was saying but with the age profile and workload/incentive I can only see it getting worse. Land rent/prices will drop imo as fewer farmers, lower profits, most enterprises unviable, phasing out of sfp. Big decisions needed at co op/government level to reverse this or maybe they prefer this bleek future...

Greengrass1

Did you see ettg tonight dawg?
2 organic milk producers on it.
One in organic milking 30 cows
The other man in loais converting over next 2 yrs milking 160 cows and reducing to 120.
60c/l

Dawggone

Lookit. I'm not trying to be different to the herd here.
I'm sick of being the only (lonely) voice that tries to keep the small family farm in the picture...ye know those type of farms, the ones that put you through university...on a ridiculously small amount of acres...I know well that all you lads 'paid' dearly for your inheritance (joke!), and every last one is a budding Bill Gates...great!
There is more at risk than your current a/c involved in this. Dairy farming in Ireland is at a crossroads...how this little crisis is handled will have much wider economic and social consequences than ye'r personal finances.

If milk price stays negative for the foreseeable I will be fine...in fact I will probably pick off those around me that will fail, but at what cost?
Ever hear of a Pyrrhic victory?


Stop blaming Coops. You own them...ergo your


Edit. Whole load of bull lost in that post! Do I hear a collective sigh?

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

Thing is dairy farmers aren't long off life support... Kowtow and all free marketeers believe in the survival of the fittest. Kowtow also bemoans the total lack of ability to add value to our produce. Maybe add value and keep those small family farms in business? What Demi-God manifested itself in the kiwi system and declared it to be the Gospel?

You are right that NZ had an open goal for 30 years.

That being the case, why did their milk price pattern only change so much in 2003 onwards? There was also a fundamental change i think where powder took over from cheese as the surplus value store? - the markets own built in buffering mechanism.

I wonder was that all a China phenomenon... everyone talks about cycles in milk price but have NZ ever really been through a full 'cycle'?

The question for NZ as much as Ireland I suppose is whether an industry geared to powder surplus is a viable thing at all, absent a global commodity bubble.

And like all good questions it is largely rhetorical. We won't know the answers until much later in the day. .

Whatever the outcome i can't see that Europe could or should underwrite a free market surplus of the size we produce.

But there are things we can and should do as well as all the good things inside the farm gate which Frazz + others rightly emphasise.

On pricing + support we own our processors and the least we should expect is to be treated like adults. It shouldn't take the IFA to intercede between the owner of a business and those who manage it for the time being.

Nor should we rely on government to do all our marketing. the value of milk should be promoted and protected first at the point where it is grown - the farm gate, and through independent creameries.

And we mustn't allow those who would wish to to use the crisis as an opportunity to merge co-ops into processors and further even more careers at the expense of farmers.

If the situation teaches us anything it ought to be to demand transparency + harbour a healthy disrespect for men with PowerPoint presentations.

Water John

Well Kowtow, I see in the Sunday Business Post that Glanbia, despite its low milk price is in the market for acquisition of other processors.
Bellview has to be fed.

Dawg, saying we one the coops, is being simplistic. Some are like runaway trains.

pedigree 6

kevthegaff wrote: »

Dairy men with lower prices will keep expanding, around this townland only 3 guys still milking. 20 yrs ago 10 families. Very sad as Dawggone was saying but with the age profile and workload/incentive I can only see it getting worse. Land rent/prices will drop imo as fewer farmers, lower profits, most enterprises unviable, phasing out of sfp. Big decisions needed at co op/government level to reverse this or maybe they prefer this bleek future...

patsy_mccabe

pedigree 6

Ah bloody hell lads we've seen it all before.
No one expected prices to stay what they were.
This is the reality now no matter what teagasc or any "expert" tells you.
There's going to be good and bad years and do what you can in the good years to survive the bad years.

This is not going to last forever.

Greengrass1

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Ah bloody hell lads we've seen it all before.
No one expected prices to stay what they were.
This is the reality now no matter what teagasc or any "expert" tells you.
There's going to be good and bad years and do what you can in the good years to survive the bad years.

This is not going to last forever.

A good statementI seen today. Most business run deficits from time to time.


I'm getting a tired of this doom and gloom now.
We survived 09 and we were in a hell of a lot worse shape here than we are now.
I've the budget done. Ride the storm and the good prices will be back.
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

You are right that NZ had an open goal for 30 years.

That being the case, why did their milk price pattern only change so much in 2003 onwards? There was also a fundamental change i think where powder took over from cheese as the surplus value store? - the markets own built in buffering mechanism.

I wonder was that all a China phenomenon... everyone talks about cycles in milk price but have NZ ever really been through a full 'cycle'?

The question for NZ as much as Ireland I suppose is whether an industry geared to powder surplus is a viable thing at all, absent a global commodity bubble.

And like all good questions it is largely rhetorical. We won't know the answers until much later in the day. .

Whatever the outcome i can't see that Europe could or should underwrite a free market surplus of the size we produce.

But there are things we can and should do as well as all the good things inside the farm gate which Frazz + others rightly emphasise.

On pricing + support we own our processors and the least we should expect is to be treated like adults. It shouldn't take the IFA to intercede between the owner of a business and those who manage it for the time being.

Nor should we rely on government to do all our marketing. the value of milk should be promoted and protected first at the point where it is grown - the farm gate, and through independent creameries.

And we mustn't allow those who would wish to to use the crisis as an opportunity to merge co-ops into processors and further even more careers at the expense of farmers.

If the situation teaches us anything it ought to be to demand transparency + harbour a healthy disrespect for men with PowerPoint presentations.

+1.
Most of what you posted I already posted but was lost...
I would like to tease this post out more, especially on the NZ and commodity cycle. Maybe tomorrow.

I've a small interest in an IT company with an old and dear friend and we've had to make a decision today to lay off a large number...

It niggles in the back of my mind that three men from Brittany took their own lives......

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

Lookit. I'm not trying to be different to the herd here.
I'm sick of being the only (lonely) voice that tries to keep the small family farm in the picture...ye know those type of farms, the ones that put you through university...on a ridiculously small amount of acres...I know well that all you lads 'paid' dearly for your inheritance (joke!), and every last one is a budding Bill Gates...great!
There is more at risk than your current a/c involved in this. Dairy farming in Ireland is at a crossroads...how this little crisis is handled will have much wider economic and social consequences than ye'r personal finances.

If milk price stays negative for the foreseeable I will be fine...in fact I will probably pick off those around me that will fail, but at what cost?
Ever hear of a Pyrrhic victory?



Stop blaming Coops. You own them...ergo your


Edit. Whole load of bull lost in that post! Do I hear a collective sigh?

You make a valid point. However the way co ops have developed in this country and in particular the way the larger co ops have developed in this country. Yes collectively farmers do own the co ops, but individually the co op can own the farmer.

When the management of your business have to hire a firm of PR consultants to communicate with you how your business is doing. Then I think it may be time to start asking a few questions.

Absolutely in theory at least farmers own the co ops. Maybe it's time we collectively stopped tipping our hats to the creamery managers. Then again some of our farmer representatives are pretty poor. Someone was just telling me today how a farmer representative was explaining to him how the loan notes that Dairygold are going to issue to people instead of refunding them the value of their shares when they expel for moving to a different co op. His understanding was that they were something that would be lodged into your current account but you couldn't access the money. God help us all! I don't know how that man's wife would allow him out of the house to buy a loaf of bread. It is shocking that someone with that level of basic understanding, could be a farmer representative in a co op.

boggerman1

Greengrass1 wrote: »

A good statementI seen today. Most business run deficits from time to time.


I'm getting a tired of this doom and gloom now.
We survived 09 and we were in a hell of a lot worse shape here than we are now.
I've the budget done. Ride the storm and the good prices will be back.
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"

Some people only happy when its all doom and gloom.get on with it is all u can do.things will return again.

freedominacup

Farmer Ed wrote: »

You make a valid point. However the way co ops have developed in this country and in particular the way the larger co ops have developed in this country. Yes collectively farmers do own the co ops, but individually the co op can own the farmer.

When the management of your business have to hire a firm of PR consultants to communicate with you how your business is doing. Then I think it may be time to start asking a few questions.

Absolutely in theory at least farmers own the co ops. Maybe it's time we collectively stopped tipping our hats to the creamery managers. Then again some of our farmer representatives are pretty poor. Someone was just telling me today how a farmer representative was explaining to him how the loan notes that Dairygold are going to issue to people instead of refunding them the value of their shares when they expel for moving to a different co op. His understanding was that they were something that would be lodged into your current account but you couldn't access the money. God help us all! I don't know how that man's wife would allow him out of the house to buy a loaf of bread. It is shocking that someone with that level of basic understanding, could be a farmer representative in a co op.

Just try floating the idea that area representation should be done away with and see the reaction. Management of co-ops love the current arrangements for selecting area reps and board members.

kowtow

The more I think about it, the more absurd this "tipping the hat" to the creamery / bank manager / local solicitor / processor seems to be.

It's corrosive and it rewards mediocrity.

It shouldn't take "farmers reps" or "area reps" or, God Forbid, the IFA to tease out the answer to a simple question.

Why not pop into the creamery next time you are paying a bill or buying a packet of cigarettes and ask the manager to be kind enough to let you have a note of approximately how much of the aggregate milk price in 2015 came from reserves and how much relates to product sales?

If he can't deal with the query, or get someone to ring you back, then perhaps a simple 3 line letter to the board or the Financial controller.

Everyone should write one. Better still, suggest that they include an update to this effect in the monthly newsletters as it is a topic of such importance to the members and suppliers....

freedominacup

kowtow wrote: »

The more I think about it, the more absurd this "tipping the hat" to the creamery / bank manager / local solicitor / processor seems to be.

It's corrosive and it rewards mediocrity.

It shouldn't take "farmers reps" or "area reps" or, God Forbid, the IFA to tease out the answer to a simple question.

Why not pop into the creamery next time you are paying a bill or buying a packet of cigarettes and ask the manager to be kind enough to let you have a note of approximately how much of the aggregate milk price in 2015 came from reserves and how much relates to product sales?

If he can't deal with the query, or get someone to ring you back, then perhaps a simple 3 line letter to the board or the Financial controller.

Everyone should write one. Better still, suggest that they include an update to this effect in the monthly newsletters as it is a topic of such importance to the members and suppliers....

He/she will look at you as if your head is actually going to fall off.

freedominacup

kevthegaff wrote: »

Dairy men with lower prices will keep expanding, around this townland only 3 guys still milking. 20 yrs ago 10 families. Very sad as Dawggone was saying but with the age profile and workload/incentive I can only see it getting worse. Land rent/prices will drop imo as fewer farmers, lower profits, most enterprises unviable, phasing out of sfp. Big decisions needed at co op/government level to reverse this or maybe they prefer this bleek future...

What size farms though Kev? Over the past twenty years here numbers flat. Two ewe lamb's whose heart was never in any kind of farming are now landlords. Two "new" entrants. One a town reared favoured nephew who has turned the place he's getting inside out. Huge increases in output and numbers since he got his hands on the tiller and he's still not out of his twenties. The other a lad who just finished his time as Anglo went tits up. They got new entrants in 2011 and milking around 100 this year.

Might be a bit of a clearout in another 20years if the next generation aren't going to carry on. I'd say the average age of principles on farms in this area would be mid forties. Average output around 600k litres at a pure guess. Only one less than fifty cows milking but he's output/cow is in dawgs territory. No one over 200 either.

kowtow

freedominacup wrote: »

He/she will look at you as if your head is actually going to fall off.

Come to think of it they look at me that way anyway.

And there was me thinking it was because I hadn't got around to having the fur on the winter hat re-trimmed.

Farmer Ed

freedominacup wrote: »

Just try floating the idea that area representation should be done away with and see the reaction. Management of co-ops love the current arrangements for selecting area reps and board members.

It was even alleged in a court case that management had intervened in the election of a co op board.

Why does that not surprise me?

kowtow

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Sensible fellow, Kipling:

"'Her name is not Wild Cow any more, but the Giver of Good Food. She will give us the warm white milk for always and always and always, and I will take care of her while you and the First Friend and the First Servant go hunting."

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Sensible fellow, Kipling:

"'Her name is not Wild Cow any more, but the Giver of Good Food. She will give us the warm white milk for always and always and always, and I will take care of her while you and the First Friend and the First Servant go hunting."

"He was a dreamer, a thinker and a speculative philosopher........or, as his wife would have it, an idiot".
Douglas Adams.




Off now to an EGM of Coop re quotas...lovely.

keep going

freedominacup wrote: »

What size farms though Kev? Over the past twenty years here numbers flat. Two ewe lamb's whose heart was never in any kind of farming are now landlords. Two "new" entrants. One a town reared favoured nephew who has turned the place he's getting inside out. Huge increases in output and numbers since he got his hands on the tiller and he's still not out of his twenties. The other a lad who just finished his time as Anglo went tits up. They got new entrants in 2011 and milking around 100 this year.

Might be a bit of a clearout in another 20years if the next generation aren't going to carry on. I'd say the average age of principles on farms in this area would be mid forties. Average output around 600k litres at a pure guess. Only one less than fifty cows milking but he's output/cow is in dawgs territory. No one over 200 either.

on a positive note there is nobody in our coop area giving up milking this year for the first time ever we think.on a negative note cheese price for the year looks like 2300euro which equates to a milk price of 23 cent give or take

Milked out

Only people to exit round here are those retiring, it's simply a case of no successor and they have milked long enuv. Sold cows and gone to.dry stock. Nobody has exited yet due to.market conditions, pub talk of lads who must be struggling cos they expanded or are too big etc from those who don't have a clue but nothing more. Hopefully there won't be either I think it's the attraction of a better lifestyle will always pull the youth from the farm and those that remain will.step.in as others don't step up and this causes the increase in scale and reduction in number of family farms.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

"He was a dreamer, a thinker and a speculative philosopher........or, as his wife would have it, an idiot". Douglas Adams.

I told the OH that if she wants to put that on my gravestone she'd better start carving now.

And she went off to fetch a chisel.

whelan2

Milked out wrote: »

Only people to exit round here are those retiring, it's simply a case of no successor and they have milked long enuv. Sold cows and gone to.dry stock. Nobody has exited yet due to.market conditions, pub talk of lads who must be struggling cos they expanded or are too big etc from those who don't have a clue but nothing more. Hopefully there won't be either I think it's the attraction of a better lifestyle will always pull the youth from the farm and those that remain will.step.in as others don't step up and this causes the increase in scale and reduction in number of family farms.

Was thinking there this evening when I was driving somewhere, I drove 6 miles before I met the nearest dairy farm to me- in the direction I was going- passed 7 farms that are not dairying anymore. Those who got out are all gone suckling -apart from one who died- alll have gotten out over 5 years ago. Dont hear anything of anyone else getting out. Was talking to another farmer this mornning and our view is wait and see and we will deal with what happens

freedominacup

Dawggone wrote: »

Totally agree Mf240.
Yes, in a perfect capitalistic world where free markets are totally (ruthlessly) free, it's great to sort the wheat from the chaff.

There is a hell of a lot more to it than that. Farming families. Am I the only one here that gives a damn about people?

Ireland is not NZ. Small farms have been the fabric of rural society across Ireland and indeed France. So after many years of protection we should allow those fragile farms quickly go to the wall?



Believe me when I say that I'm as big a vulture as they come...but there must may be another way. A different way than NZ....produce at one or two pips above CoP and grab scale from your neighbour?
Surely someone can have an 'almost' original thought that doesn't involve putting family farms to the wall?

What size do you call small? Jobs are the fabric of rural society now. We had a fundraiser here last month. Plenty of effort before the night to get a crowd out. Table quiz, raffle, and charity auction in one night. Around 30k raised. Pushing an open door with the cause in question so easy enough to get contributions. This in a parish with around 130 in the primary school. Only about 6 farm families with children in the school. We as farmers have our place around here but no more than any other industry. The point about the fundraiser is that there's cash around despite the fact that farmers make up less than 10% of the population in this rural area.

Jobs, the transport infrastructure to allow people live where they're from and get to work and finally the service infrastructure to allow businesses develop in rural areas are what is important not "small" family farms which were often a by-word for hardship.

kowtow

It's an odd thing - every man and his dog talks about family farms but do we ever stop to define them?

At least where milking is concerned I suspect most of us have in mind the 50 odd acres paid for a xoupke of generations back with or without an out farm run by one full time unit whose son is a strong candidate for taking over if he shows an interest... and a thousand variations on the same theme.

For one reason or another Ireland still has more than its fair share of these.

But is a family farm defined by its size, or by the historical accident of how it came to be there - an accident which sometimes has important implications for how it is managed?

Timmaay

whelan2 wrote: »

Was thinking there this evening when I was driving somewhere, I drove 6 miles before I met the nearest dairy farm to me- in the direction I was going- passed 7 farms that are not dairying anymore. Those who got out are all gone suckling -apart from one who died- alll have gotten out over 5 years ago. Dont hear anything of anyone else getting out. Was talking to another farmer this mornning and our view is wait and see and we will deal with what happens

Last 10years largely the same around here, mostly the 50-80cow lads, who had no successor interested in the workload, thinking about it it could just as easily been my dad also ha, but anyways more recently I know of quite a few farmers with sons who are very interested, all of these are 100+ cow farms no surprise, but it's good to know there is a decent bit of local youth up and coming.

jaymla627

Hope know one is expecting a big pull out of the seasonality scheme this month with glanbia averaged out at less then a cent a litre over oct/Nov milk here and a good block of that was sent in November 40 plus % of total amount

WheatenBriar

Timmaay wrote: »

Last 10years largely the same around here, mostly the 50-80cow lads, who had no successor interested in the workload, thinking about it it could just as easily been my dad also ha, but anyways more recently I know of quite a few farmers with sons who are very interested, all of these are 100+ cow farms no surprise, but it's good to know there is a decent bit of local youth up and coming.

If the economy outside farming continues to grow, do you think those young lads in 100 cow + operations are going to want to milk cows 7 days a week with all the unsociable hours that entails for say 25k a year (if that) take home pay versus the average industrial wage++ weekends off,less worry etc elsewhere ?
Their wives will have to pay for everything with the current outlook
Tbh,unless theres a marked change,I'd be sending for the lads in white coats for anyone thinking of starting out today

whelan2

Timmaay wrote: »

Last 10years largely the same around here, mostly the 50-80cow lads, who had no successor interested in the workload, thinking about it it could just as easily been my dad also ha, but anyways more recently I know of quite a few farmers with sons who are very interested, all of these are 100+ cow farms no surprise, but it's good to know there is a decent bit of local youth up and coming.

3 of the lads who got out of dairying would only be a few years older than me. Would have been under 40 years of age when they stopped milking

patsy_mccabe

WheatenBriar wrote: »

.... Tbh,unless theres a marked change,I'd be sending for the lads in white coats for anyone thinking of starting out today

Funny but I was only thinking last night that now would be the ideal time to get into Dairying. Far better to get in at the bottom of the price curve than the top.

WheatenBriar

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Funny but I was only thinking last night that now would be the ideal time to get into Dairying. Far better to get in at the bottom of the price curve than the top.

Mehaffey1

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Funny but I was only thinking last night that now would be the ideal time to get into Dairying. Far better to get in at the bottom of the price curve than the top.

If you have some substantial savings and a fine opportunity in front of you that makes sense on pen and paper then you can make it work. The old saying still stays true that nothing worth doing comes easy.

Feeling the pince badly here with tempers starting to flare and some big moves being planned for. My friend's sharemilker is planning to up sticks and move 800 cows + young stock over 250 km away to a new farm for next season.

patsy_mccabe

WheatenBriar wrote: »

As my Father used to say, 'There's no point being mad unless you can prove it'.