Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

Aintree Grand National...bet on a nag, after the first circuit your bet doubles for the same payout...nice.

Glanbia not confident that milk price will exceed 31.5c in the next 29 months?

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Glanbia not confident that milk price will exceed 31.5c in the next 29 months?

Looks like it..



Dammit.

mf240

You'd want to be special kind of idiot to sign up for that scheme.

mahoney_j

mf240 wrote: »

You'd want to be special kind of idiot to sign up for that scheme.

Lol

frazzledhome

Some scutter bring talked here again.
Have to love the arm chair analysts.

Anyone offering me 29c/litre MINIMUM for 2016 gets my vote every day. All coop top ups on top of this also.

It's for a portion of your milk, not all of it. There are people on fixed price in GII getting 30c base on their milk ATM, complete eejits, aren't they.

The buzz from the experts here is that milk is phucked and due to the financial dire straits world wide will never recover.

Lads whatever you do take counsel somewhere other than here.

mf240

All Co op top ups included in the 29 frazzled.

After month 15 Co op top ups on top of 29 plus your allocation will be doubled.

Nobody in their right mind would make a decision based on my waffle I'd hope.

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote:

The buzz from the experts here is that milk is phucked and due to the financial dire straits world wide will never recover.

Surely if that were true it would be the only justification for taking 29c on a fixed price contract, 66% of which will be in 2017 / 18 ?

frazzledhome

mf240 wrote: »

All Co op top ups included in the 29 frazzled.

After month 15 Co op top ups on top of 29 plus your allocation will be doubled.

Nobody in their right mind would make a decision based on my waffle I'd hope.

You are correct on top ups, however it's a no brainer

frazzledhome

kowtow wrote: »

Surely if that were true it would be the only justification for taking 29c on a fixed price contract, 66% of which will be in 2017 / 18 ?

It's for a portion not all of your milk. Would reducing risk not be prudent?

The special eejits that are currently signed up must feel like right dicks

Highest price in the country

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

You are correct on top ups, however it's a no brainer

I disagree.

In fifteen months milk price will have recovered and you will get 29 cent on twice the volume you got it on in the previous 15.

It's a long time until the end of 2018.

I have commitment issues though and I was wrong before so get it signed asap.:pac:

atlantic mist

well fraz how much did u get into consumer foods fixed price scheme, as you are purchases your concentrates solely from them how did your % work out on last year supply, did you fix previously in the prior scheme, had agribusines rep in they seem to have dropped price they are actually competitive this year

who is the new fixed price scheme for?

Any word on the glanbia EU loan fund materialising?

priority given to manufacturing suppliers, think that was fair considering 50% of previous scheme was kept for lads in the previous consumer foods fixed price scheme and liquid suppliers, if schemes are operated they should be open to all not selective suppliers otherwise we end up with two tiered supplier structure

mahoney_j

Agree with frazz here ,an option to fix a portion of your milk even at 29 is a no brainier .who knows where milk price is going in short to mid term ,it don't look good though .i would love the option to fix a portion of my milk but my processor dosnt offer one

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

Agree with frazz here ,an option to fix a portion of your milk even at 29 is a no brainier .who knows where milk price is going in short to mid term ,it don't look good though .i would love the option to fix a portion of my milk but my processor dosnt offer one

If you haven't signed a contract with your crowd, why can't you fix? ;)

mahoney_j

frazzledhome wrote: »

If you haven't signed a contract with your crowd, why can't you fix? ;)

Because at the moment outside of no fixed scheme I'm quite happy how my crowd are performing ,I nearly jumped last year but decided against as the outlay on shares to qualify for top ups etc wasn't there as I had an outlay on cubicles and calving facilities to complete

kevthegaff

mahoney_j wrote: »

Agree with frazz here ,an option to fix a portion of your milk even at 29 is a no brainier .who knows where milk price is going in short to mid term ,it don't look good though .i would love the option to fix a portion of my milk but my processor dosnt offer one

I'm delighted arrabawn don't rob Peter to pay Paul...

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm delighted arrabawn don't rob Peter to pay Paul...

That be the top ups Kev ,would u like an opportunity to fix ax portion of your milk at say 30 cent for circa 15 months .......

kevthegaff

Or rob kev to pay jerry or vice versa depending on whatever the fu*k is going to happen. on the world market.

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote:

It's for a portion not all of your milk. Would reducing risk not be prudent?

Yes, I'd be taking it.

But I'd be among those who think milk either falling further in the short term or staying substantially below 31.5c for 3 years is not unlikely, either or both of which are needed to make the fix profitable.

I'm not sure if that makes me an armchair analyst or just a bearish b***d but in any event I'm sure I'm in a minority!

kevthegaff

mahoney_j wrote: »

That be the top ups Kev ,would u like an opportunity to fix ax portion of your milk at say 30 cent for circa 15 months .......

Don't agree with it myself jerry as it will be balanced elsewhere... I had a few winners at leopards town even tho I don't know donkeys! All suppliers or none imo. At 30 cent tempting

jaymla627

kowtow wrote: »

Glanbia not confident that milk price will exceed 31.5c in the next 29 months?

At current exchange rates the fixed price of 29 cent would equate to 6.50 kgs/ms in kiwi dollars, puts a bit of perspective on it given 5 dollars is been touted as the opening figure for the 2016/2017 season out there and a lot of "experts" reckon that's to high.....
Will try and fix as much as possible into this scheme, at least it gives some bit of security heading into a difficult year...

frazzledhome

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm delighted arrabawn don't rob Peter to pay Paul...

Kev, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Arrabawn are subbing milk out of coop funds. Like it or not that's a fact and if anyone tells you different, they are lying

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

Don't agree with it myself jerry as it will be balanced elsewhere... I had a few winners at leopards town even tho I don't know donkeys! All suppliers or none imo. At 30 cent tempting

I'd prefer have a% fixed at 30/31 when market is at or near bottom than be pissed off at fixing if mid/high 30s

frazzledhome

kevthegaff wrote: »

Don't agree with it myself jerry as it will be balanced elsewhere... I had a few winners at leopards town even tho I don't know donkeys! All suppliers or none imo. At 30 cent tempting

It's a fixed amount of milk fixed at a price to a customer. That's why it's always a limited volume contract.

kowtow

That is a very important and reassuring detail, and actually a good reason to support it even if the terms were less than stellar.

We need more of these see through customer contracts if we are to stand any chance of dealing with volatility.

Better every time to hedge against a terminal user with their own risk to mitigate than some jumped up synthetic where every man and his dog gets a commission.

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's a fixed amount of milk fixed at a price to a customer. That's why it's always a limited volume contract.

What percentage of supply?

frazzledhome

kowtow wrote: »

That is a very important and reassuring detail.

Sure you don't think we're special kind of eejits

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's a fixed amount of milk fixed at a price to a customer. That's why it's always a limited volume contract.

Do you believe that...

kevthegaff

I've put it all together frazz is head of Glanbia 's ingredients division! Cheesecakes etc

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's a fixed amount of milk fixed at a price to a customer. That's why it's always a limited volume contract.

How did they persuade this customer to pay over the odds in a falling market.

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote:

Sure you don't think we're special kind of eejits

Not at all. I'm full of warm feelings having exercised my democratic rights.

They let me cast seven votes on the one sheet without paying extra.

This is a hell of a country.

frazzledhome

atlantic mist wrote: »

well fraz how much did u get into consumer foods fixed price scheme, as you are purchases your concentrates solely from them how did your % work out on last year supply, did you fix previously in the prior scheme, had agribusines rep in they seem to have dropped price they are actually competitive this year

who is the new fixed price scheme for?

Any word on the glanbia EU loan fund materialising?

priority given to manufacturing suppliers, think that was fair considering 50% of previous scheme was kept for lads in the previous consumer foods fixed price scheme and liquid suppliers, if schemes are operated they should be open to all not selective suppliers otherwise we end up with two tiered supplier structure

Not sure I understand the first part of your question.

The only business I conduct with Consumer Foods is in A supermarket the odd time I buy milk or cream

I presume your question re inputs is what I buy from Agri Trading. I get quotes from 2 suppliers every 3 mths for meal and Fert, dealing with whomever is best value. Don't buy solely from Glanbia. The €7/tonne coop rebate on all feed and Fert has blown all the competition out of the water.

Yes did fix previously but not in all schemes.

I'll send DM on loan fund. Announcement in next couple of weeks. It'll certainly be announced before info meetings happen in late March/April

Agree 100% with your last point.

kowtow

mf240 wrote:

How did they persuade this customer to pay over the odds in a falling market.

They offered him a 3 yr deal.

frazzledhome

kowtow wrote: »

They offered him a 3 yr deal.

As simple as that. The guy doing the deal may well be and most likely is doing similar on his end with product.

Consistent supply of quality ingredients is what some look for

frazzledhome

kowtow wrote: »

Not at all. I'm full of warm feelings having exercised my democratic rights.

They let me cast seven votes on the one sheet without paying extra.

This is a hell of a country.

Was doing tally yrs ago and one paper had no 1 beside each name with "as promised" written at the bottom.

Did you put the shinners no 1, take a pic, show to their man down the pub and get 4 free pints. All the rage.

Milked out

mahoney_j wrote: »

That be the top ups Kev ,would u like an opportunity to fix ax portion of your milk at say 30 cent for circa 15 months .......

Shoulda joined dairygold

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

Was doing tally yrs ago and one paper had no 1 beside each name with "as promised" written at the bottom.

Did you put the shinners no 1, take a pic, show to their man down the pub and get 4 free pints. All the rage.

I'd want more than 4 to vote sf, our milk cheque to a unemployed townie near you:-D

alps

Everything's dropping....

See the GAA are dropping intercounty minor age to 17....

Is there no end to it..

Farmer Ed

mf240 wrote: »

How did they persuade this customer to pay over the odds in a falling market.

Very good point. The truth of how a co op should work is that all the profit that is made from milk should be paid back to the farmer, If some of the milk is paid for at a higher price, then as sure as night follows day the remainder of the milk will be paid for at a lower price. This fixed price thing on a limited amount of you milk is simply an exercise of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Probably thought up by a PR consultant.

It really grieves me to see people so easily taken in. This thing about customers wanting a guaranteed supply of milk!! In all fairness, the biggest problem at the moment is not enough storage to hold all the oversupply of product. Its not likely we are going to run short of milk anytime soon.!!!

How do these people think up this stuff ????????????????

RightTurnClyde

On a hundred cow herd doing 6000 litres. If you can fix 5% and if milk stays at 24c for 12 months it's worth €1,500 and that's ignoring that the robbed Peter isn't just your neighbour, the other 95% of your milk is being robbed aswell. So that €1500 is actually much smaller.
Farmers need to stop being distracted by the smoke and mirrors and wake up. Start questioning why GII are where they are on the milk league.

frazzledhome

I give up, The talking horse seems to be an expert on Reox, DG, IFA, Glanbia, ICOS and any other idea that varies from the horse ploughing.

Perhaps you should try to understand what your talking about before you post.

Dawggone

Got lively here last night..

I suppose if milk drops to 22cpl then 29cpl would look attractive, but the length of the contract would put me, personally, out of the frame. Cereal prices are shyte for the last three years...coupled with huge carryover stocks, it doesn't bode well short term for Ag commodities.
*However* things can turn fast, but maybe fast enough to clear out existing and rapidly mounting stocks...

I would be a big supporter of schemes like the one on offer, where guaranteed end users are willing to contract. There should be a push across all processors to set up these kind of schemes and not the synthetic hocus pocus 'instruments' that will be a magnet for the parasites.

What I find a bit unsettling is the low price and the length of contract...the message (subliminal) is that the industry is quite bearish into the medium term...I actually wouldn't be that bearish all the way into 2018.






NB. As I've said many times before do not take any heed of the "scutter" I write on here!

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Got lively here last night..

I suppose if milk drops to 22cpl then 29cpl would look attractive, but the length of the contract would put me, personally, out of the frame. Cereal prices are shyte for the last three years...coupled with huge carryover stocks, it doesn't bode well short term for Ag commodities.
*However* things can turn fast, but maybe fast enough to clear out existing and rapidly mounting stocks...

I would be a big supporter of schemes like the one on offer, where guaranteed end users are willing to contract. There should be a push across all processors to set up these kind of schemes and not the synthetic hocus pocus 'instruments' that will be a magnet for the parasites.

What I find a bit unsettling is the low price and the length of contract...the message (subliminal) is that the industry is quite bearish into the medium term...I actually wouldn't be that bearish all the way into 2018.






NB. As I've said many times before do not take any heed of the "scutter" I write on here!

This fixed scheme and all in the past were direct contracts with a buyer or a few buyers.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

This fixed scheme and all in the past were direct contracts with a buyer or a few buyers.

Are they transparent?
If so then it's admirable.

If I was a customer of Glanbia I would be happy enough to fix sub 30cpl until 2018.


I wrote about this here a few years back...talked a lot of scutter about managing risk etc and the benefit of fixing prices...sadly it took a severe drop in price before people took notice.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Are they transparent?
If so then it's admirable.

If I was a customer of Glanbia I would be happy enough to fix sub 30cpl until 2018.


I wrote about this here a few years back...talked a lot of scutter about managing risk etc and the benefit of fixing prices...sadly it took a severe drop in price before people took notice.

Funny thing is lots of GII suppliers are part of a fixed scheme and loving it. Most would've joined when price way high.

Why? Because they plan, they think and they know all about managing risk.

After all, business is nothing short of risk management.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

Funny thing is lots of GII suppliers are part of a fixed scheme and loving it. Most would've joined when price way high.

Why? Because they plan, they think and they know all about managing risk.

After all, business is nothing short of risk management.

Yep.
Interestingly when price was good people were commenting here about losing with fixed price schemes, now they are talking about gaining...

Shouldn't listen to me...I'm covered until the end of May for wheat (€173) and then completely naked...spot yesterday €112.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Yep.
Interestingly when price was good people were commenting here about losing with fixed price schemes, now they are talking about gaining...

Shouldn't listen to me...I'm covered until the end of May for wheat (€173) and then completely naked...spot yesterday €112.

QED, some scutter here

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

QED, some scutter here

Can't agree with that.

Some here do talk sense.
Pray tell, what % have you covered, and at what price?

I may talk scutter...but some don't.

kevthegaff

Dawggone wrote: »

Can't agree with that.

Some here do talk sense.
Pray tell, what % have you covered, and at what price?

I may talk scutter...but some don't.

Is it the local processor that guarantees on wheel Dawggone and what %?

Dawggone

kevthegaff wrote: »

Is it the local processor that guarantees on wheel Dawggone and what %?

Sorry Kev, I don't understand the question.

mf240

Right at the risk of being told I'm talking shutter. (I may well be) would it not be better business for Glanbia to pay as high as they can for milk instead of a myriad of schemes, rebates, terms and conditions accompanied by an ever increasing amount of administration.

It's been said here that all Co ops are subbing price. They seem to be doing a better job of it and with less of a song and dance about it.

As a hedge I don't think the latest offering is attractive. But then what would a simple farmer like me know. Sure I was only in school cos that's where the bus let me out.