Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Farmer Ed

Pacoa wrote: »

On the subject of china, heres an interesting article I've just been reading.

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/bought-out-chinas-attack-on-agriculture-46516/

Looks like we are all going to be rich so! Any truth in the rumor that they changed the name of the calf to Oramadán? Great name for a Co Op I would have thought.

http://www.dairygoldfoodingredients.com/files/12_02_Dairy_Industries_online_-_Chinese_vice_president_visits_Irish_Dairygold_farm.pdf

Water John

The directors of a coop have different responsibilities than those of a plc.
Kowtow, your example is very good. In the case of a coop this would operate differently and the net benefit overall to the shareholders/farmers would or should predominate, not the narrow interest of the plc.
Great Example.

The spinout of REOX which sold the very brands of Dairygold, including its own name is exactly as described by Kowtow.

The danger in DG Coop, is the dry shareholders cashing in their shares. This may not be in the interests of the shareholders/suppliers. But only something over 2,600 are suppliers out of a total of 9,000. Very high risk.
We are in no way reassured that the Board would act in the best interest of the active shareholders over the will of the dry. Would they 'entertain' the chinaman if he came calling?

Arrabawn did not entertain DG.
This is a very important reason to have good Directors. They don't 'entertain' what is not in the shareholders interest.

pedigree 6

Pacoa wrote: »

On the subject of china, heres an interesting article I've just been reading.

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/bought-out-chinas-attack-on-agriculture-46516/

That's the one rightturnclyde linked up before another website had that and global dairy put it on their website then.

It's just interesting that they are buying farmland, food companies, agrichem companies.
I don't think we've anything to be worried about in this country. There's no farm big enough to be interested in.:D

Anyway enough from me about the Chinese them dutch however....:pac:

Buford T. Justice XIX

pedigree 6 wrote: »

That's the one rightturnclyde linked up before another website had that and global dairy put it on their website then.

It's just interesting that they are buying farmland, food companies, agrichem companies.
I don't think we've anything to be worried about in this country. There's no farm big enough to be interested in.:D

Anyway enough from me about the Chinese them dutch however....:pac:

It mightn't be a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory at all.

The Chinese have an authority that has the stability to put a long term economic plan in place, especially as they have abandoned the one-child policy that limited population growth. It would make sense to secure diverse supplies of food for the growth that seems to be on the way.

pedigree 6

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

It mightn't be a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory at all.

The Chinese have an authority that has the stability to put a long term economic plan in place, especially as they have abandoned the one-child policy that limited population growth. It would make sense to secure diverse supplies of food for the growth that seems to be on the way.

Ah it's just a bit of banter on a Saturday afternoon.
True or not. There's nothing the likes of you or me can do about it.
We're dust in the wind to that sort of thing.

Farmer Ed

Two "successful" Irish companies teaming up and pinning their hopes on China.


In terms of expansion into China, Keenan explains that developments are going according to plan.

“In Asia, food production is a government issue, a huge priority. Countries have got to produce milk more efficiently to sustain rural development, improve farmer incomes without pushing up food prices, and meet environmental limitations.

“China is especially interesting for Keenan because we were getting the endorsement of leaders in nutrition even before we started doing business in 2013.”

He said the visit last June of Dr Zhang, China’s Vice Minister for Agriculture with responsibility for technologies, was crucial.

“His presence was a powerful statement of China’s interest in Keenan feed efficiency technology. Since the visit, we have reached agreement with a state owned enterprise, Caams, for a service infrastructure to support our food chain alliances, Yan Hua and others developing.”

Dairy
Another key alliance this year is with Dairygold, he added.

“This is hugely important because this directly relates to the ambitious targets to grow Ireland’s milk production by 50 per cent. Dairygold is a major milk processing co-operative and it’s a major feed supplier.

“Dairygold want to help their farmers increase milk production through feed efficiency. This is a breakthrough in Ireland’s ambitious plans to increase milk production by 2020.”

“Ireland has a huge natural asset in grass. The average milk production per cow is 5,000 litres. Last year the average milk production was 5,000 litres per cow and concentrates fed per cow was one tonne. We are confident a target of 7,000 litres per cow from one tonne is a very achievable goal.”

In terms of increasing milk production by 50 per cent, he said there were two conventional ways for Ireland to do this. “One is to increase cow numbers and the other is to increase the concentrate portion of the ration. The third way is feed efficiency using the best of Irish grazing technology and the best feed efficiency technology.”

He believes the feed efficiency option is far superior to the other two options. “It carries less risk, less investment and more returns to farmers. This too is vital to processors gearing up for expansion and markets opening up as quotas lift. The limiting factor could be farmers’ willingness to expand.”

What Dairygold and Keenan are doing is absolutely relevant to Ireland’s 2020 goals and to the industry across Ireland, he added.

“More milk from the same land, feed and water resources is good for farmers, processors, agri-business and the wider economy.”

Pictured: Dr Gordon Purvis, University College Dublin, Gerard Keenan, speaker and Dr Liam Downey former head of Teagasc



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Water John

That's very interesting Ed.
Keenan and Dairygold get special mention. The man who is now the top man in China is on friendly terms with James Lynch having had his hospitality!!!
Also all the Board visited a few years ago.

Keenan now bought out by Alltech.

One would be worried if Dairygold is in play.

atlantic mist

director have duties under company law and they also have duties under stock exchange rules, our need to know both

kowtow example of the dam paints the picture directors only job is to be profit motivation while he is correct that is their one of their main duties, we and the markets now expect more from our directors and especially listed companies, directors now have ethical and social responsibilities for not just the shareholder but also the stake holders which include communities and suppliers and can be seen by the increased financial reporting in addition to the financial company accounts, look back a few years and they didnt exist but this is the new market requirement we down want companies that just deplete the world solely focused on the margin they dont benefit society, they need to be good corporate citizens these can be seen in our plc annual report under Corporate social responsibility and sustainability. The suppliers do not get a mention in the plc report on sustainability or corporate responsibility and this needs to be addressed the next time the pull out the fiduciary responsibility line, we do get a mention in the risk report, social media will be added next year im sure

Water John

Atlantic,The concept of 'Fair Chain' should be incorporated into Corporate Social Responsibility.

Farmer Ed

Water John wrote: »

That's very interesting Ed.
Keenan and Dairygold get special mention. The man who is now the top man in China is on friendly terms with James Lynch having had his hospitality!!!
Also all the Board visited a few years ago.

Keenan now bought out by Alltech.

One would be worried if Dairygold is in play.

Amazing how Co Op accounts never show a loss and how milk price always gets "supported" by a nice round 20m in a bad year.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/profits-plunge-14m-at-dairygold-91161.html

kevthegaff

Water John wrote: »

The directors of a coop have different responsibilities than those of a plc.
Kowtow, your example is very good. In the case of a coop this would operate differently and the net benefit overall to the shareholders/farmers would or should predominate, not the narrow interest of the plc.
Great Example.

The spinout of REOX which sold the very brands of Dairygold, including its own name is exactly as described by Kowtow.

The danger in DG Coop, is the dry shareholders cashing in their shares. This may not be in the interests of the shareholders/suppliers. But only something over 2,600 are suppliers out of a total of 9,000. Very high risk.
We are in no way reassured that the Board would act in the best interest of the active shareholders over the will of the dry. Would they 'entertain' the chinaman if he came calling?

Arrabawn did not entertain DG.
This is a very important reason to have good Directors. They don't 'entertain' what is not in the shareholders interest.

John the offer on the table was 2 euro a share I think, Ryan got it in independently valued at 4 euros. A few farmers were giving out why they didn't take the offer (mainly guys that were leaving!!!) My reply was we should be getting 5-6 a share but I was glad at the time nothing came of it, even tho Arrabawn weren't that glamorous at the time

Water John

It wasn't Arrabawn they were after. It was the milk supply.
Not one litre of milk would have been processed in Nenagh in a few years, guaranteed.
Ye dodged a bullet there.

Farmer Ed

kevthegaff wrote: »

John the offer on the table was 2 euro a share I think, Ryan got it in independently valued at 4 euros. A few farmers were giving out why they didn't take the offer (mainly guys that were leaving!!!) My reply was we should be getting 5-6 a share but I was glad at the time nothing came of it, even tho Arrabawn weren't that glamorous at the time

Reminds me of a drunk going into a pup and making an insulting offer to buy the place. Then when the owner of the pub tells him the pub is not for sale. He comes back and tries to get all the other customers in the pub to leave and go to a different pub.
The reality is the man was drunk in the first place and couldn't afford to buy anything apart from more drink.

darragh_haven

keep going wrote: »

Lorry driver told this morning 2 guys giving up milking near here, both younger than me.if it was possible for carbery to take over/amalgamate with dairygold and gii , would ye be in favour

Out of interest KG, what kind of cow numbers would these 2 suppliers have.

kowtow

atlantic mist wrote:

kowtow example of the dam paints the picture directors only job is to be profit motivation while he is correct that is their one of their main duties, we and the markets now expect more from our directors and especially listed companies, directors now have ethical and social responsibilities for not just the shareholder but also the stake holders....

Quite right, and sustainability as I have said before is in the long term interests of the processors. There is good reason not to over-exploit the suppliers and to pay the fairest price possible..

My main reason in making the point I did was to clarify that it doesn't matter to a company director - can't matter in fact- that one, most, or all of his shareholders are farmers. In that sense farmer representation on a plc board is a little bit of a gesture, the board must put all the shareholders first. That's not to say that p**ssing off 40% of the share register is a good tactic.

*as others have rightly pointed out this is absolutely not the case in a coop something which I should have made clear in my post above, constitutionally speaking the members of co operatives are a different animal to the members of a limited company.

kowtow

Water John wrote:

Atlantic,The concept of 'Fair Chain' should be incorporated into Corporate Social Responsibility.

The trouble with CSR is that it is not- cannot - create a specific duty to suppliers. That would make a nonsense of contract relationships.

Companies ought to be ethical and can lose face and customers if they aren't but it's difficult to sue on that basis.

Water John

I just think that bringing 'fair chain' into the equation, in some way, could provide some comfort to the supplier/farmers. Especially those now at the whim of plc's namely Glanbia and Kerry.
The actual mechanism could be for debate.

The farmer/suppliers of Dairygold, it being a coop, may have to place their faith in St. Jude.

keep going

darragh_haven wrote: »

Out of interest KG, what kind of cow numbers would these 2 suppliers have.

Dont quote me but id say around 70 for one and 40 for the other, got word tonite that another is considering.

Bass Reeves

keep going wrote: »

Dont quote me but id say around 70 for one and 40 for the other, got word tonite that another is considering.

Age profile and successor profile might be more interesting. 40 cow farmer more than likely would be as well off with drystock and an off farm job unless you had a landbase to expand

whelan2

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Age profile and successor profile might be more interesting. 40 cow farmer more than likely would be as well off with drystock and an off farm job unless you had a ladbase to expand

wonder what way does it work out if you gave up milking before the msa period is up?

WheatenBriar

Oh the msa states thats allowed whelan2
Shur msa's are probably a law suit away from nullification as it is without the slavery

mf240

whelan2 wrote: »

wonder what way does it work out if you gave up milking before the msa period is up?

Jaysus they cant make you milk cows. If ya get out they don't mind. It's only to stop you going to somewhere else.

Id say if a couple of lads left they could be afraid to pursue it. As if they lost the case then everyone could walk.

If it drops below 20 I'll probably let them rear their calves next year. could do with a holiday anyway.

darragh_haven

keep going wrote: »

Dont quote me but id say around 70 for one and 40 for the other, got word tonite that another is considering.

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

kevthegaff

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

keep going

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

One fella was educated and had worked b2fore and has a job got.hard to blame him with the prospects at the minute and is a silent partner with his neighbour now.the other guy had small numbers but was big into high yeilds highcfeeding etc and id say it just caught up with him when prices fell.the thrid guy has another on farm business competing for his land.any way lads they can always get goi g again if things pick up,

whelan2

kevthegaff wrote: »

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

What size parlour have you?

kevthegaff

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

That's the question how long at current prices will it be feasible for alot of us to continue between family and credit possibly rising. Will it make sense not to mention the workload.

Farmer Ed

darragh_haven wrote: »

A good friend of mine is at about the 80 cow mark but is really stuck between a rock and a hard place now. He doesn't think he can continue if milk price dips much more.... or if the current price is prolonged (12more months).
Changes in his personal life have made him have to change his outlook on his own "free labour"

Good example of how people's outlook can change over time. One thing that strikes me at farmers meetings is the age profile. Ive heard of an 80 year old signing the msa and forecasting his future milk dileveries. I wonder how realistic that forecast was?

kevthegaff

whelan2 wrote: »

What size parlour have you?

12 unit ball of crap

whelan2

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Good example of how people's outlook can change over time. One thing that strikes me at farmers meetings is the age profile. Ive heard of an 80 year old signing the msa and forecasting his future milk dileveries. I wonder how realistic that forecast was?

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Farmer Ed

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

WheatenBriar

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

Aye an 18% rise in GiiL's milk intake must have been very disappointing for them
Their suppliers were capable of at least 30 if they wanted

Farmer Ed

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Aye an 18% rise in GiiL's milk intake must have been very disappointing for them
Their suppliers were capable of at least 30 if they wanted

There was always going to be an increase as soon as quotas ended. The question is can that rate of increase be sustained? Or at what point might we even see a decline in production as farmers get older and drop out. Milking extra cows on your own is all very well but it's definitely a Yong persons job.

whelan2

Low milk price. Extra long winter. 3 years left in Msa. Also feck all return for the long hours put in while the head honchos pocket more and more. Can't see too many putting up with it for much longer. Morale is on the floor

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

You mightn't have a choice.

Retirement age is heading upwards and will probably be 70 fairly soon.

I may just be doing mainly tractor work by then, and maybe a lot sooner, but I like being outdoors and doing something constructive rather than sitting inside doing Bingo and giving out about the 'young people these days....':)

Timmaay

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Certainly not planning on being still in the parlour full time when I'm 40 ha. Not for another 10years, I've no idea what I'll be at then but I know I'll refuse to become a slave to any wild government targets like the harvest 2020, company's like Glanbia etc, and all that needs to happen is for me to pickup afew acres and become 2/3grand per cow in debt and suddenly I'll have no option but to plough on pumping out milk regardless of the price. God knows what way the markets will be in 10years, not to mind climate change etc. Absolutely no point planning past 10years with capital investments etc. In 10years time I'd say I'll either be gone or at 250+cows and obviously I can't achieve that without neighbours failing which is the harsh reality.

keep going

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't plan to be milking cows when I am 80 or 60 for that matter

Alot worse if you couldnt milk at 60 or 70

freedominacup

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Your not alone there. But the point is some may have successors but a lot don't. So ultimately dairy farmer numbers will continue to fall. A prolonged low milk price may well exeellerate the process.

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

jaymla627

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

We are seeing a totally different dynamic though eu quotas gone, massive production increases worldwide cheap grain/oil for the foreseeable future and are facing into another 12-18 months of low prices...
Their has never been such a prolonged period with prices on the floor and it looks like staying like that for all of 2016 at least, any of us milking at the minute in the position that they can pull the plug this year and get out debt free would be wise to do so, but that's easier said then done and of course their is the attachment to the cows....
In my situation am still in my 20s, taking no wages whatsoever this year, and will probably end up subbing farm nearly 35k from bps and off-farm income, it's a ridiculous situation to be in working 70 hours a week on farm/30 off it and be losing money, it's not sustainable and even though I would loathe to have to get out of cows I will only stick what I'm at currently for another 2 years our will burn myself out for no reward and probably end up in a nice bit of debt

RightTurnClyde

kevthegaff wrote: »

2, 3 years of this malarkey will wean off a lot of lads, will be approaching 130 this year on my own. Going with flying herd once the rest of calves are moved on. Tough during the spring but hoping it will be worth it time/financially in the future.. if I had a bigger parlour I reckon could manage more but will see. As dawg says no tailpainting/Ai calves moved on quick, dehorning. Just didn't see it feasible getting another block for replacements, also 4 out of 37 not incalf last year and 3 losing spins so that just p""S's ed me off

As efficiency goes that model will be close to as good as it gets. One labour unit on owned land shoving 180 through, will be hard to beat financially. When it comes to buying replacements will you buy Springers or calved. There's another area you can help the labour situation and improve the ability to "duck and dive"
(Eg buying calved cows later in spring when you get a spring like thus ones)

The one chink in that setup is long term sustainability. Down the road, head into your 50s, it'll be hard going physically, but that's a while away.

You'll make money with that system

Miname

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

As efficiency goes that model will be close to as good as it gets. One labour unit on owned land shoving 180 through, will be hard to beat financially. When it comes to buying replacements will you buy Springers or calved. There's another area you can help the labour situation and improve the ability to "duck and dive"
(Eg buying calved cows later in spring when you get a spring like thus ones)

The one chink in that setup is long term sustainability. Down the road, head into your 50s, it'll be hard going physically, but that's a while away.

You'll make money with that system

I'm suckling so don't really know but realistically is there many farms set up or even have the ability to set up to carry 180 cows with one labour unit.

RightTurnClyde

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Free, I agree with a lot of what you say.. But my worry is a decision was made when milk prices were +35c a litre to produce a specific low value product, and large capital was spent on that decision. When prices, and they will, rise back into the mid thirties through out Europe, we will still be lagging 4 or 5 cent behind because of decisions that were made pre end of quotas.
To be honest the first and only glimmer of light I've seen recently for a price rise are the environmental issues appearing in the Netherlands and Germany. It's something like this that will lift all boats in the medium to long term.

RightTurnClyde

Miname wrote: »

I'm suckling so don't really know but realistically is there many farms set up or even have the ability to set up to carry 180 cows with one labour unit.

Close to that here, 170 on my tod. Still rearing the heifers for the first 12 months and then passing them to contract rearer. That will stop after this year. Cows only next year up to 180. I'll have room for more if I import silage, but ill see.
I did get carried away this year and reared all the calves, including bulls and am only starting to sell calves now. I was a very hard spring on mind and body. I wouldn't do it again, in fact I've been told I'm not doing it again, I'll have to get help for next spring. My good wife very rarely issues instructions and when she does I listen.

No matter how good the setup, high numbers on one man are short term solutions for a few years when you're young, it's not a sustainable model long term.

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Jeez Free surely you're doing it for yourself??
No successor here (well I have but would in no way allow it!) and well past my hayday, but love the buzz/challenge. There's a 94ha farm come up almost next door to base and as Clarkson would say 'I'm nursing a semi'...
There are days that I feel like chucking it in and buying a few gîtes and going native, but I just love the buzz...onwards and upwards.
As Whelan said morale is on the floor, but things will change in a few years and the pain will be forgotten...

kowtow

Well I'm going against the grain and cranking up the milkers.

When I reach two dozen I'll stop and take stock.

kowtow

freedominacup wrote:

There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Brilliant point.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Well I'm going against the grain and cranking up the milkers.

When I reach two dozen I'll stop and take stock.

Steady on there Kowtow!!

Dawggone

On reading the posts here and everyone talking about the one man operation, I would strongly recommend that you take out a 'key man' insurance policy.

Brown Podzol

Milking cows or selling litres. Upped cow no.s by 15% and litres by 50% in the last year. Long lactation and breeding a cow that will respond to extra feed and calve every 365 days. There are more ways of killing a cat than choking him with butter.

whelan2

freedominacup wrote: »

The day after I establish I haven't got a successor I'll be contacting an auctioneer. I'll be well into my fifties at that point and there'd be little point flogging myself if no-one is going to take up the mantle. By the same token if someone has said they want the job they will be taking most of the reins and I'll be moving into the back seat. Prices rise and fall people. There's as little point in making descions with long term consequences based on 20-22c as there is based on 40-42c.

Do you realistically think milk will ever be in the 40's again? Any way enough doom and gloom, am off out for our tea, 19 years married