Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow

browned wrote:

Bang on the money bass. The current circumstances is 22c/l and falling. Those that adopt to this new reality will survive and those that cling to the past will not.

This one will.

case885

kowtow wrote:

This one will.

I thought you did adapt to a niche system kow?

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

This one will.

Survive?

Or..cling to the past?

As ambiguous as an ancient Oracle/Sibyl...:)

Farmer Ed

browned wrote: »

Sorry man I wouldn't have a strong enough pharyngeal reflex to last the interview let alone a days work

No offence taken. But you can always put it on your CV that you were offered the job. It's getting increasingly hard to find people to defend the pay and conditions of serial board members.

Buford T. Justice XIX

GDT today, should be interesting again.

whelan2

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

GDT today, should be interesting again.

Glanbia don't pass any remarks to gdt auctions. They have their price set months ago.

browned

Farmer Ed wrote: »

No offence taken. But you can always put it on your CV that you were offered the job. It's getting increasingly hard to find people to defend the pay and conditions of serial board members.

and none meant. if you can work it into any future board contract, try and organise it so that every time you can drop the words ifa, dairygold, REOX, pat smith or jim wolfe into a conversation you'll automatically qualify for a bonus.

WheatenBriar

browned wrote: »

How is me taking control of my own business the wrong mindset.
If people aren't happy with the milk price why not go out and sell their own milk cut the coop out of the equation. Plenty of farmers havent excepted poor prices in the past and added value to their milk be it in the form of cheeses, yogurts etc. this way you have full control of production marketing and sales of your produce and you're the one getting the bonuses

I did not mean taking your business to maximum efficiency is the wrong mindset
Ignoring being shafted on base price ,in favour of increasingly hard to find or indeed hardship making cutbacks is

There is no room in the market for every farmer to make and sell his/her end product or for a whole population of new groups of small farmers to do that,they'd go broke setting up and competing with one another
We have a model,it's just we aren't very good at controling it

keep going

kowtow wrote: »

Ah God no, not the west cork boards. They've barely got chocolate on the digestives and there is a whiff of farmer about them.

Go for the big boys, get a cheap suit, and get on with taking the 'culture' out of agriculture.

Ah now first I m after getting a complex about my grey hair and now im being told I stink, add that to the low pay and my confidence is in bits. I ll have to go for a make over, operation transfarmation

Sacrolyte

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

GDT today, should be interesting again.

Bugger.

Farmer Ed

keep going wrote: »

Ah now first I m after getting a complex about my grey hair and now im being told I stink, add that to the low pay and my confidence is in bits. I ll have to go for a make over, operation transfarmation

It's your own fault for paying the farmers too much for milk. Get the make over and let the farmers pay for it.

Farmer Ed

browned wrote: »

and none meant. if you can work it into any future board contract, try and organise it so that every time you can drop the words ifa, dairygold, REOX, pat smith or jim wolfe into a conversation you'll automatically qualify for a bonus.

As soon as I'm on the board I will have to tow the line and sing the praises of all of the above.

browned

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I did not mean taking your business to maximum efficiency is the wrong mindset
Ignoring being shafted on base price ,in favour of increasingly hard to find or indeed hardship making cutbacks is

There is no room in the market for every farmer to make and sell his/her end product or for a whole population of new groups of small farmers to do that,they'd go broke setting up and competing with one another
We have a model,it's just we aren't very good at controling it

I wouldn't try and set up my own brand either if im being honest, too much work with no actual guarantee of final product sale. I'm content with the present arrangement whereby I only have to focus on producing the raw material and in exchanged for an ever fluctuating price, I am guaranteed to be paid each month and without ever having to worry about where it goes once it leaves my farm.

your were saying that there is no room in the market for say farmer brand produce but isn't the coop in the same situation only on a much larger scale.

WheatenBriar

browned wrote: »

your were saying that there is no room in the market for say farmer brand produce but isn't the coop in the same situation only on a much larger scale.

No,the very large Co Op/plc will have recognised brands ,established logistics,and millions of euros in retained earnings to play with
Quite different to the farmer on his own

boggerman1

Gdt down again by 1.4%.20,000 ton on offer.18 cents a litre not too far away from being a possibility.hope I'm wrong.

Buford T. Justice XIX

boggerman1 wrote: »

Gdt down again by 1.4%.20,000 ton on offer.18 cents a litre not too far away from being a possibility.hope I'm wrong.

That'll cheer up a few Boardsies:rolleyes:

Butter products down 5.5%

Cheese and Casein up

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/

Milked out

boggerman1 wrote: »

Gdt down again by 1.4%.20,000 ton on offer.18 cents a litre not too far away from being a possibility.hope I'm wrong.

Add your reply here.

Where's the ornua ppi? I know the gdt auction is there for all to see but we sell f-all on it, yet it's quoted as the be all and end all. We should be seeing reports on where our product is sold. Hell fontera are even selling less and less on it or so they claim unless they are holding it all, no doubt there will be a jump in volumes come next month to try and knock us back a bit

whelan2

What about all those measures announced by big Phil last month?

Farmer Ed

WheatenBriar wrote: »

No,the very large Co Op/plc will have recognised brands ,established logistics,and millions of euros in retained earnings to play with
Quite different to the farmer on his own

Some Coops have no brands as they had to sell them the last time they were stuck for money

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

As ambiguous as an ancient Oracle/Sibyl...

Dawggone wrote:

Or..cling to the past?

Dawggone wrote:

Survive?

All three.

We're going to survive (thrive actually) by clinging to the past.

What the overpaid boards would call exploiting the synergy of vertical integrations while capturing the higher margin elements of the customer relationship.

We call it making cheese.

Farmer Ed

kowtow wrote: »

All three.

We're going to survive (thrive actually) by clinging to the past.

What the overpaid boards would call exploiting the synergy of vertical integrations while capturing the higher margin elements of the customer relationship.

We call it making cheese.

You must be hanging around a more educated type of board member to me. In my experience the average board member wouldn't have a clue what any of that ment, but would just nod their heads in agreement at what ever big important sounding words managment were coming out with.

kowtow

Farmer Ed wrote:

You must be hanging around a more educated type of board member to me. In my experience the average board member wouldn't have a clue what any of that ment, but would just nod their heads in agreement at what ever big important sounding words managment were coming out with.

Used to love having board members like that. The older ones were sometimes deaf as well which is a bonus from a compliance point of view.

Dawggone

I've been watching this thread unfold lately and this evening I had a browse back 2/3 yrs ago...
Biddy was brill at informing when cheque hit the account..Jersey101 was gung ho...DeLaval was confident...etc,etc
Biddy got an average of 27.7cpl for '09...
The new bottom price was 30-32cpl...
Blah Blah.

There was a cranky old briar 'sheebadog' that talked of 'ducking and diving' and volatility and 'one trick pony' and risk management and QUOTA and expansion and a whole load of scutter...


'Twasn't like ye weren't warned...

darragh_haven

Dawggone wrote: »

I've been watching this thread unfold lately and this evening I had a browse back 2/3 yrs ago...
Biddy was brill at informing when cheque hit the account..Jersey101 was gung ho...DeLaval was confident...etc,etc
Biddy got an average of 27.7cpl for '09...
The new bottom price was 30-32cpl...
Blah Blah.

There was a cranky old briar 'sheebadog' that talked of 'ducking and diving' and volatility and 'one trick pony' and risk management and QUOTA and expansion and a whole load of scutter...


'Twasn't like ye were warned...

Good time to get into dairying so Ted?

Dawggone

darragh_haven wrote: »

Good time to get into dairying so Ted?

Absolutely!

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

Absolutely!

I was thinking in the parlour this evening that if this thread gets any more bearish I had better start buying a serious amount of cows.

Or a co-op.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

I was thinking in the parlour this evening that if this thread gets any more bearish I had better start buying a serious amount of cows.

Or a co-op.

Coming close on time to make your move...:)

Edit.
Put a couple of Coops to bed when stainless steel starts to peak??

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

Coming close on time to make your move...

Ah but at the rate I go, 240 cows would take me forever to do. I'd be going one better than browned - they'd be on 'once a week'

I must put away these low commercial thoughts and concentrate on artisanal retirement.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Ah but at the rate I go, 240 cows would take me forever to do. I'd be going one better than browned - they'd be on 'once a week'

I must put away these low commercial thoughts and concentrate on artisanal retirement.

Artisanal retirement would suit me right now only I'm totally lacking in any *art*.

mf240

Dawggone wrote: »

I've been watching this thread unfold lately and this evening I had a browse back 2/3 yrs ago...
Biddy was brill at informing when cheque hit the account..Jersey101 was gung ho...DeLaval was confident...etc,etc
Biddy got an average of 27.7cpl for '09...
The new bottom price was 30-32cpl...
Blah Blah.

There was a cranky old briar 'sheebadog' that talked of 'ducking and diving' and volatility and 'one trick pony' and risk management and QUOTA and expansion and a whole load of scutter...


'Twasn't like ye weren't warned...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=89706698

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=89706698

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

mf240

Dawggone wrote: »

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

Haven't a clue tbh. the lad in Nigeria might stir up a bit of demand.

patsy_mccabe

This from over a year back;

" Got a letter from Dairygold asking me to forecast my milk supply for the next three years and the same people can only call the price of milk two weeks in arrears. Jaysus if they could only indicate the price for this year I could have a fair crack at it."

kevthegaff

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

kowtow

kevthegaff wrote:

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

When that happy moment comes I'll cheerfully buy you a pint.

Which will probably cost 12.50.

tanko

Dawggone wrote: »

And there I was chalking you down as a dairy jihadist. Apologies.

Now predict the next five years milk price?:)

What do you think it'll be?

kowtow

tanko wrote:

What do you think it'll be?

There's a fairly big retracement in oil over recent weeks.

A lot will depend on whether that rally fizzles out and turns back downwards, on phone at the moment so haven't any prices handy to see what the key levels are.

As far as milk is concerned in the near term surely the problem is that Irish prices haven't yet got to the gdt levels?

keep going

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'm going against the grain, well see prices in the mid thirties again by 2022!

It ll happen long before that, id say summer 2019

Water John

I really hope you are right, keep going.
Not so sure my bank manager would take your or my word for it.

Bass Reeves

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Timmaay

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Mid/long term the Base price anything over 30c, and less of these weather extremes would keep me very comfortable, once I remain lowly borrowed. However short term I cannot see any flicker of hope 2bh, if NZ does dump a load of milk on the gdt next 2months at the end of their season it won't be good at all, alongside that no sign of the end of low grain prices in the US, especially not if lads have locked into 2/3year feed contracts while the grain price on the floor. I've well battened down the hatches and preparing to have to flog on 20 of the worst performing cows later in the year, also praying to God we don't get any serious drought this summer that's could quickly see 1000e/week meal bills if we had to feed the likes of 10kg/head.

Bass Reeves

Timmaay wrote: »

Mid/long term the Base price anything over 30c, and less of these weather extremes would keep me very comfortable, once I remain lowly borrowed. However short term I cannot see any flicker of hope 2bh, if NZ does dump a load of milk on the gdt next 2months at the end of their season it won't be good at all, alongside that no sign of the end of low grain prices in the US, especially not if lads have locked into 2/3year feed contracts while the grain price on the floor. I've well battened down the hatches and preparing to have to flog on 20 of the worst performing cows later in the year, also praying to God we don't get any serious drought this summer that's could quickly see 1000e/week meal bills if we had to feed the likes of 10kg/head.

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

There's a fairly big retracement in oil over recent weeks.

A lot will depend on whether that rally fizzles out and turns back downwards, on phone at the moment so haven't any prices handy to see what the key levels are.

As far as milk is concerned in the near term surely the problem is that Irish prices haven't yet got to the gdt levels?

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Its misplaced logic.

Production needs to be severely reduced to save prices.....And x-breds severely reduce your production.

Allegedly.

* I'm no expert but I think it's because some of those Jerseys are so small you can only actually find three quarters of them when it's time for milking?

Farmer Ed

In fairness Irish prices shouldn't have to fall to gdt prices. Not all our milk ends up on the world market. The processors with the highest % of their products going in to more higher value added products should still be able to pay a better price. That's is probably part of the reason why already we are starting to see a price gap opening up. If your only market is powder then you are going to be hit the hardest.

Bass Reeves

Dawggone wrote: »

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Use he have Red hair and write for the journal I wonder.

Willfarman

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Best thing to cure low prices is low prices.

After the Us election oil prices will creep up again. Milk will follow 30c/L late 2017 will continue to head north until late 2018/early 2019 then starts to drop. 3-4 year cycle hitting 40c/L and down to 20c/L.

Rangler loves to quote that when defending the ifa's dismal record in curtailing Larry and co. I think Rangler was using sheep as a reference point.
And perhaps there's truth in it but it took 30 years of dismal suffering in the sheep in industry and even now it's not cured but there's a faint pulse in it.

There will be an upturn in milk albeit from a rise in oil, a rise in grain from war in the Ukraine or hurricane or drought in the grain belts of the world.
But for the guys with no money in the bank and farms maybe in early or mid development solid advise is of critical importance NOW.

How to negotiate and structure debt. Massive issue
Is there machinery in the yard leased bought or on hp that is under-utilised that should be got rid and a contractor used.
Is there recent land purchase that should be returned to market. Legal fees and tax implications to same.
Work life balance. Massive issue. Listening and reading some mad stuff lately on this.

Timmaay

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If grain prices remain as is fellas will start to leave land fallow. I saw posted on another thread that loads of maize set on tillage land because of late spring. Talk about being stupid plenty of cheap forage at the end of the year for Larry to fill the sheds with all those 2015 born cattle.

As well look at DD at the moment loads of adds for HE and AA suck calves. It a case of suck em and see for next 6-8 months.

I was talking to the chap who grows maize for me last week, his orders from dairyfarmers this year are well down, ordinarily that wouldnt bother him he'd just plant another crop, however very few crops make any economic sense this year! We were talking about the poor spring, late silage etc, and he wanted to know should he take a punt on more maize incase farmers were short next winter, I told him that was very risky, we simply won't have the money to pay for it and would rather cull instead which he accepted, however he's that much between a rock and a hard place that he was willing to take a punt on the extra based on our conversation about the late spring!!

jaymla627

Dawggone wrote: »

Nutshell.

Coop support, intervention etc are putting a false floor on price.

The sooner that it hits 12/14cpl the better!



I was reading on another forum (French) where an Irish dairy farmer was saying that xbreds are the cure for low dairy prices...sure that's fine so...but, but, what breed of dairy cows do they have in NZ??

Was bemused this morning when I asked milk tanker driver whats the deal was with all the lakeland lorries around the place, never seen one in all my time driving through our area but could meet 2-3 everyday now....
They're ferrying milk into ballyragget that's going into smp/wmp so obviously glanbia are buying this stuff at a hefty discount and lakeland are subbing the difference of 7 plus cent, they won't be long eating into their cash reserves at that racket

rangler1

Willfarman wrote: »

Rangler loves to quote that when defending the ifa's dismal record in curtailing Larry and co. I think Rangler was using sheep as a reference point.
And perhaps there's truth in it but it took 30 years of dismal suffering in the sheep in industry and even now it's not cured but there's a faint pulse in it.

There will be an upturn in milk albeit from a rise in oil, a rise in grain from war in the Ukraine or hurricane or drought in the grain belts of the world.
But for the guys with no money in the bank and farms maybe in early or mid development solid advise is of critical importance NOW.

How to negotiate and structure debt. Massive issue
Is there machinery in the yard leased bought or on hp that is under-utilised that should be got rid and a contractor used.
Is there recent land purchase that should be returned to market. Legal fees and tax implications to same.
Work life balance. Massive issue. Listening and reading some mad stuff lately on this.

That faint pulse will be under pressure if euro comes up more against sterling..... English were selling their lambs for £65 midseason i think last year.£65 a lamb is only about €80 if euro is 80p