Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Buford T. Justice XIX

Dawggone wrote: »

Of course there'll be a sweetener.

If it does happen...temporary seems to be the main word use.

Having said that Big Phil would never be able to return to the shores of the Emerald Isle again. Not without a Kevlar suit anyhow.

Sure didn't he have that on when was going out from the water charge protests:D

Dawggone

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Sure didn't he have that on when was going out from the water charge protests:D

He's been gorging on canapés at all those EU functions so may need to be measured and fitted again.

Water John

We had hoped we had given Phil a oneway ticket.
Simple message, 'don't come back'.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Dawggone wrote: »

Yes. Capricious/fickle. But then was it Keynes that said 'When the facts change, I change my mind'...

Let's face it, would the appetite be there to fight the reintroduction of quotas? As in the countries that count?

I think freedom sums up what I was going to say:)

freedominacup wrote: »

Would they ever take their subsidies and their endless interference in markets and on farms and shove it up in their holes. And then fcuk off back under whatever socialist, interventionist dreamland stone they crawled out from under. We're on the way to a reasonably free market where you stand or fall on your abilities. Let the chips fall where they may.

On quotas themselves, I was against them going because it would have suited me better if it was next year or after when they were going.

But let the best/luckiest survive, there will be plenty opportunities to progress when the dust settles.

And there is no guarantee that I will be one of the survivors but we've been through worst than this blip and survived:)

Water John

I think, on balance for everybody, it would have been best if quotas had been lifted gradually.
With much of the excess going to powder now here, one can see how it has dragged the price down further than it might have fallen, amongst other things.

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

In France. But the French are the civil servants of Europe and the Germans are the 'Ministers', and when it's decided in France to pay SFP at a certain date it happens EUwide. It's never a measure that is won/achieved by an Irish Ag Min...even though they like to make the announcement at the ploughing fest in Sept...as if they're great men for looking after farmers.

I thought Ifa was responsible for all the payments we get? Are you suggesting we should be thanking the French instead?

Water John

Did you not know that senior IFA people can speak in many tongues.

mf240

If quota was reintroduced. America and new Zealand and every other non Eu country would continue to produce. Then when the price recovers we in Europe will be stuck with quota stopping us from benefiting from it.

Why don't they intrduce a bull****e quota instead.

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

+1000.


Edit.
Was talking to a merchant the other day and said as much. In fact I went as far as saying that the sooner milk hits 14cpl the better.

Also, I'd like to see intervention finished.
Put dairy on the same playing pitch as grains...

Would grain be profitable without bfp?

mf240

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I thought Ifa was responsible for all the payments we get? Are you suggesting we should be thanking the French instead?

The IFA are responsible for the nice weather. they were unable to do anything about the hailstones last week because they hadn't time to print enough posters or get buses to Dublin.

Dawggone

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I think freedom sums up what I was going to say:)



On quotas themselves, I was against them going because it would have suited me better if it was next year or after when they were going.

But let the best/luckiest survive, there will be plenty opportunities to progress when the dust settles.

And there is no guarantee that I will be one of the survivors but we've been through worst than this blip and survived:)

Exactly.

I was against the removal of quotas because of the small family farm especially those on marginal or shyte land. But the quota abolitionists and their quota parties/pis*ups got me thinking quite the opposite.
As I've said, the sooner milk hits 12/14cpl for a prolonged period, the better. That'll sort the men from the boys.

Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Would grain be profitable without bfp?

Or milk or beef?

SFP is not just for tillage the last time I looked.

Tillage going through a lot more hardship than dairy Atm. It's just that after 30yrs of jam dairy are reeling...not a word from tillage, they're well used to it.

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

Exactly.

I was against the removal of quotas because of the small family farm especially those on marginal or shyte land. But the quota abolitionists and their quota parties/pis*ups got me thinking quite the opposite.
As I've said, the sooner milk hits 12/14cpl for a prolonged period, the better. That'll sort the men from the boys.

At 12/14 no farmer milking cows currently will remain solvent or farming

Water John

Won't be going that low. Higher cost production is probably already cutting back. The core is that it is an inelastic market. Small surplus creates a glut.
Hopefully a little cut back will correct the market.
Could fall to 20 cent during the year I'd say.

Farmer Ed

mf240 wrote: »

The IFA are responsible for the nice weather. they were unable to do anything about the hailstones last week because they hadn't time to print enough posters or get buses to Dublin.

Fair play to them for the weather anyway. Well worth the Levy.

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

Or milk or beef?

SFP is not just for tillage the last time I looked.

Tillage going through a lot more hardship than dairy Atm. It's just that after 30yrs of jam dairy are reeling...not a word from tillage, they're well used to it.

Just one small problem there.. The average Joe dairy farmer would have a much smalla bfp than the average Joe tillage farmer.

kevthegaff

Why is there not quotas in us and nz if wer getting stuck with them..

freedominacup

kevthegaff wrote: »

Why is there not quotas in us and nz if wer getting stuck with them..

Because you need socialists to be in charge to implement them.

Waffletraktor

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Just one small problem there.. The average Joe dairy farmer would have a much smalla bfp than the average Joe tillage farmer.

Give merchants a reason to want your grain more and it's comfortably profitable as you get better the higher value contracts. Anyone doing feed grains unless they're putting it through an animal are already gone/going broke. Selling well is infinitely better than well grown.

patsy_mccabe

Water John wrote: »

Won't be going that low. Higher cost production is probably already cutting back. The core is that it is an inelastic market. Small surplus creates a glut.
Hopefully a little cut back will correct the market.
Could fall to 20 cent during the year I'd say.

That's it in a nutshell. Food markets are completely inelastic. The problem is high cost producing countries won't be allow die either. Food security is too important.

Buford T. Justice XIX

mf240 wrote: »

If quota was reintroduced. America and new Zealand and every other non Eu country would continue to produce. Then when the price recovers we in Europe will be stuck with quota stopping us from benefiting from it.

Why don't they intrduce a bull****e quota instead.

Isn't that covered by the nitrates regulations:pac:

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

At 12/14 no farmer milking cows currently will remain solvent or farming

Good. That's what the farmers wanted...be careful what you wish for.

Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Just one small problem there.. The average Joe dairy farmer would have a much smalla bfp than the average Joe tillage farmer.

Who's fault is that exactly?
Dairy had quotas and a protected guaranteed income...tillage got some reprieve from McSharry. Nothing stopped dairy from going into the entitlements market and buying, as I did. Or should they be gifted to dairy also? The buying of SFP was a no brainer...

Pacoa

If there is one thing dairy farmers could do across the eu is that they could protest and demand that the russian embargo be lifted. What exactly has the embargo achieved? It wouldn't solve all our problems but it might help.

Waffletraktor

Pacoa wrote: »

If there is one thing dairy farmers could do across the eu is that they could protest and demand that the russian embargo be lifted. What exactly has the embargo achieved? It wouldn't solve all our problems but it might help.

The embargo was lifted a bit already you just sold to the belarusians for nothing who sold to the Russians for a little making lots.

Dawggone

freedominacup wrote: »

Because you need socialists to be in charge to implement them.

Indeed. When circumstances are outside your control duck and dive, and make the best of the situation. I will.

No point in sitting back and pointing the finger at your 'ruination', make the best of it.

caseman

Water John wrote: »

Won't be going that low. Higher cost production is probably already cutting back. The core is that it is an inelastic market. Small surplus creates a glut.
Hopefully a little cut back will correct the market.
Could fall to 20 cent during the year I'd say.

O yes it could and it could be worth nothing if their's nó market's for it.

Dawggone

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Give merchants a reason to want your grain more and it's comfortably profitable as you get better the higher value contracts. Anyone doing feed grains unless they're putting it through an animal are already gone/going broke. Selling well is infinitely better than well grown.

+1.
Selling well is infinitely better than well grown.


Irish dairy industry decided that selling muck at the bottom rung was the way ahead. Farmers were to concentrate on squeezing the last cent from a blade of grass and let the savants do their marketing for them. Lovely.

mf240

If milk did fall to 12 cent it would get scarce very quickly.

The lower a commodity falls the higher it will rebound and the more sustained the peak.

Dawg give it a rest with the "ducking and diving" surely you have another cliché you could use, just to mix it up a bit?!?

mf240

Water John wrote: »

I think, on balance for everybody, it would have been best if quotas had been lifted gradually.
With much of the excess going to powder now here, one can see how it has dragged the price down further than it might have fallen, amongst other things.

Dawggone wrote: »

+1.
Selling well is infinitely better than well grown.


Irish dairy industry decided that selling muck at the bottom rung was the way ahead. Farmers were to concentrate on squeezing the last cent from a blade of grass and let the savants do their marketing for them. Lovely.

As long as you measure grass and don't roof the cubicles you can produce milk for free apparently.

kevthegaff

What would u do if u were milking in ireland dawg in terms of breed, fodder, approach?

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

SFP to be paid out before end of summer.

That's the learjet wash taken care of then.

kowtow

mf240 wrote:

As long as you measure grass and don't roof the cubicles you can produce milk for free apparently.

That's old hat.

Grass roofed cubicles, Kevin Mc cloud eat your heart out.

kevthegaff

We could be relatively lucky, price hasn't fallen off a cliff at peak just yet, that with a not so strong euro is keeping us above water atm time will tell. Hopefully pressure on boards co ops will result from this crisis. Untouchable the last 10 years

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

If milk did fall to 12 cent it would get scarce very quickly.

The lower a commodity falls the higher it will rebound and the more sustained the peak.

Dawg give it a rest with the "ducking and diving" surely you have another cliché you could use, just to mix it up a bit?!?

Sorry MF. I suppose after 3 or more years it must get annoying...:)

I'm confident that milk would rebound quickly if it drops to 12/14cpl...I certainly wouldn't bet on milk returning to anything like the good old days though. Methinks that dairy/grains/meat are now in the same ballpark. Waaay too easy for the biggest milk producer in the world to turn on the taps.


Dairy reset.

Water John

Some of our milk processing guys fell into the same trap as Trade Union Reps.
Both fell fat and lazy under guaranteed systems.
When the supports were removed, they didn't have the skills to do the job.

kevthegaff

kowtow wrote: »

That's old hat.

Grass roofed cubicles, Kevin Mc cloud eat your heart out.

But you must get an architect..

kowtow

mahoney_j wrote:

At 12/14 no farmer milking cows currently will remain solvent or farming

How much per litre would you need to survive if land was 3k an acre and half your 400 acres was tillage?

mahoney_j

If milks drops to 20 and sub 20 for say a year how in the name of jaysus wil an Irish ,French fook it any dairy farmer survive .thevso called elite dairy farmers have prod costs of 23/24 cents not including own labour ,interest or debt repayment

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

That's the learjet wash taken care of then.

Sign of the times...I'd be ashamed to admit to being flown around the world in a Bombardier piece of muck...Boeing all the way!

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

As long as you measure grass and don't roof the cubicles you can produce milk for free apparently.

:) #grasstomilk.

kowtow

mf240 wrote:

The lower a commodity falls the higher it will rebound and the more sustained the peak.

I know what you are getting at but that's only true over a limited time frame, and given a static producer and consumer base, each of whom alter production and consumption according to price.

If I could guarantee that milk will exceed 40c at some point in the next five years or so the cme liquid milk futures curve would look very different.

Milked out

Dawggone wrote: »

mf240 wrote: »

If milk did fall to 12 cent it would get scarce very quickly.

The lower a commodity falls the higher it will rebound and the more sustained the peak.

Dawg give it a rest with the "ducking and diving" surely you have another clich you could use, just to mix it up a bit?!?

Sorry MF. I suppose after 3 or more years it must get annoying...:)

I'm confident that milk would rebound quickly if it drops to 12/14cpl...I certainly wouldn't bet on milk returning to anything like the good old days though. Methinks that dairy/grains/meat are now in the same ballpark. Waaay too easy for the biggest milk producer in the world to turn on the taps.


Dairy reset.

India? the sustained high prices for the last number of years are ironically to blame for this sustained trough. Production eventually caught up with demand and overshot massively just as demand slowed. This combined with China economy waning a bit, Russia doing what Russia do and the EUs response combined with the yanks being able to keep going for longer with cheap grain and oil and having learned and done something after 09. The yanks if I recall dropped off very fast in 09. Quota going here was only a small addition to the mess compared to the above.

Water John

Kev, the top table didn't look too discommoded at the DG AGM.
Just one day in the year to have to listen to the plebs.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

Sign of the times...I'd be ashamed to admit to being flown around the world in a Bombardier piece of muck...Boeing all the way!

The better Alpine airports are a little constrained for a G5...

Pacoa

India has a drought at the moment.

http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/private-dairies-in-pune-report-dip-in-production-cooperatives-manage-to-cut-the-losses-2771860/

Dawggone

kevthegaff wrote: »

What would u do if u were milking in ireland dawg in terms of breed, fodder, approach?

That's a serious question that I've no answer to Kev. The industry is in the biggest shake up in the last 30 odd years. Easy to say the usual Teagasc/Coop/Ornua shyte...in respect to Mf240...dive and duck?

Apologies for being flippant. Can you give me some time to think on that and I'll post some scutter in a couple of days?

Dawggone

Pacoa wrote: »

India has a drought at the moment.

http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/private-dairies-in-pune-report-dip-in-production-cooperatives-manage-to-cut-the-losses-2771860/

True. I've been watching it closely.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

The better Alpine airports are a little constrained for a G5...

I hate skiing!!

kowtow

Dawggone wrote:

I hate skiing!!

Come for the skiing, stay for the banking.