Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

"What's it all for?"

It's for the time being, that's all!

As long as we learn from it dairy farmers will come out better and stronger and we'll gradually build up the products and the culture to go with it. It takes a lot of hard work and a very long time, but farmers (unlike processors) are generally not frightened of either.

The trick is to learn from it, and not sit there waiting for the powder price to bounce back like a ball so everything is rosy again.

keep going

Milked out wrote: »

That average include fixed price schemes?

Posted wrong price , I 4hink not including

mf240

I put four cows on oad. That should help the oversupply!!

kowtow

mf240 wrote: »

I put four cows on oad. That should help the oversupply!!

They should each get some kind of personal recognition from the EU - a special tag would do it:--

"Volunteer - helping the supply management effort"

Under the circumstances I think the celebratory tag should be free of charge.

kowtow

visatorro wrote: »

I dunno about different products. If you ever watch dragons den then they talk about crowded market space and people making niche products finding it very hard to get Into supermarkets.
The greens tried to bring in farmers markets for local niche products. Alright in theory but was never going to take off for various reasons. As farmers we can't all start making cheese yogurts etc, and expect to make a living from it. The processors made a decision to give there product a long shelf life. Maybe this is the only thing they could do for it to make sense financially.
Older generation would be watching the news and see the like of the camps of syrian refugees starving and would say why can't they fire a heap of chesse and butter at them to eat, Sounds stupid but there's probably abit of twisted logic in an older persons simple way of looking at things.

I agree with everything in your post.

Of course it's not realistic that every farm makes cheese, or every farm sells liquid milk at the local market. We don't live in that kind of economy any more (although it's surprising how much local food is returning in the US - as usual they are about 10 years ahead of the UK and another 10 in front of us)..

I think more than anything else there is a mindset here which has to change. In the last page or two the customer relationship comes into focus for the first time (I think) where milk price is concerned. The customer relationship properly belongs to the farmer - something we have lost sight of to our cost in the last half century or so.

That doesn't mean that we all need to stand at a market stall yelling for Mrs Miggins to buy our cream, instead we entrust that relationship to others in the chain - but when we do make that decision (choosing a co-op, allowing a merger, considering product mix, handing over control) I wonder how many of us actually think of the customer we are distancing ourselves from and how difficult it is to regain that control?

Many businesses entrust their customers to a distribution network, but all of the successful ones - in my experience - are damned careful about who they choose and on what terms.

As I said, it's a mindset.

whelan2

Spoke with lad in farm services, all 6 levies I posted yesterday are compulsory. Also there is no premier grade milk anymore, grade 1 is the new premier grade

alps

kowtow wrote: »

It's for the time being, that's all!

As long as we learn from it dairy farmers will come out better and stronger and we'll gradually build up the products and the culture to go with it. It takes a lot of hard work and a very long time, but farmers (unlike processors) are generally not frightened of either.

The trick is to learn from it, and not sit there waiting for the powder price to bounce back like a ball so everything is rosy again.

Unfortunately, in the main we are led, by the herd mentality and by the shirt and tie brigade that finance themselves out of the milk levies and deduction columns of your milk statement.
The majority of these deductions are on a per litre basis, salaries of those working in the layers of professionals it takes to sell our powder, change up and down in percentage terms but never in line with the outcome of the price paid to the farmer...(The person that they were all put there to work for..And who finances them)

Ornua levy
Dept Inspection levy
Teagasc research levy
NDC levy
Bovine disease levy
ICBF tag levy
Dairy Council levy
FMP levy
Gov Services levy
Ifa/Macra/ICMSA levy

And all those needed to sell our bagged up commodities

Milk Quality Coop
ICOS
NDC
Ornua
Bord Bia and Origin Green
National Milk Agency
Irish Dairy Industries Association

All sucking off you on a per litre basis and none of it performance based....

Who's fault is it.....its yours....Rangler is right..

I remember a conference in Denmark a number of years back and the harshest comment I heard form that ..and it's absolutely correct..
"If your farm is not making enough money...its your own fault"

Now scream at that all you want, but until farmers stand up and say enough is enough, all we'll get is more of the same.

The elephant in the room is huge. ..Our product in its present form is not wanted, not at any price it seems, and we continue to produce more of it. We listen to the opinion formers about it being tough but the fundamentals are good, green shoots, longer term prospects....All the commentary we have heard before...
Grey crows picking your eyes out, but the fundamentals are fine.

Read Kowtow's passages again and again...its all there..

Passages from the modern day "Animal Farm"

kowtow

From the journal

I'm beginning to gather from his repeated optimistic predictions that Nathan Penny operates on the old market adage that "even a stopped clock will be right once a day"

Nathan Penny, rural economist with ASB bank, is more optimistic saying he expects Fonterra to set an opening milk price of $4.80/kg (22c/l). He goes on to say he expects payout will increase to $6/kg (27.5c/l) towards the end of the season, following a reduction in milk supply across the world.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

From the journal

I'm beginning to gather from his repeated optimistic predictions that Nathan Penny operates on the old market adage that "even a stopped clock will be right once a day"

. Twice a day! (unless 24hr).

You're implying that price is NOT going to rise??


Local union rep called to me this morning to tell me to back off a local farm that's for sale...yea right!!

Anyhow I engaged him on the price of grains and milk.
(It's important to know that French farmers, when they meet, discuss prices. Nothing else. Irish farmers discuss weather etc)

He said that intervention price has to be halved or abolished because it's just 'extend and pretend', and prolonging the adjustment. Now, he's not a dairy farmer as he only produces grains, but his comment about technology rang true...technology is about 20yrs ahead of consumption.

So...looks like intervention is the new 'China'.

Farmer Ed

alps wrote: »

Unfortunately, in the main we are led, by the herd mentality and by the shirt and tie brigade that finance themselves out of the milk levies and deduction columns of your milk statement.
The majority of these deductions are on a per litre basis, salaries of those working in the layers of professionals it takes to sell our powder, change up and down in percentage terms but never in line with the outcome of the price paid to the farmer...(The person that they were all put there to work for..And who finances them)

Ornua levy
Dept Inspection levy
Teagasc research levy
NDC levy
Bovine disease levy
ICBF tag levy
Dairy Council levy
FMP levy
Gov Services levy
Ifa/Macra/ICMSA levy

And all those needed to sell our bagged up commodities

Milk Quality Coop
ICOS
NDC
Ornua
Bord Bia and Origin Green
National Milk Agency
Irish Dairy Industries Association

All sucking off you on a per litre basis and none of it performance based....

Who's fault is it.....its yours....Rangler is right..

I remember a conference in Denmark a number of years back and the harshest comment I heard form that ..and it's absolutely correct..
"If your farm is not making enough money...its your own fault"

Now scream at that all you want, but until farmers stand up and say enough is enough, all we'll get is more of the same.

The elephant in the room is huge. ..Our product in its present form is not wanted, not at any price it seems, and we continue to produce more of it. We listen to the opinion formers about it being tough but the fundamentals are good, green shoots, longer term prospects....All the commentary we have heard before...
Grey crows picking your eyes out, but the fundamentals are fine.

Read Kowtow's passages again and again...its all there..

Passages from the modern day "Animal Farm"

You are totally correct in 99% of what you are saying. The problem is we are constantly told not to concern ourselves about what happens outside the farm gate. You even have people on hear suggesting the only reason we are not getting a good price for milk is because our solids are not good enough. The levies you have correctly identified are only the tip of the iceberg. How much more from the greater agricultural budget that is not itemised in your milk statement is all this costing farmers. The sting in the tail is that a lot of the boards of these quangos are made up of our fellow farmers. In effect we are being sold down the river by our own. Amazing what a position on a board can do to change someone's prospective. But you are dead right. It's about time we collectively woke up and shouted stop.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Kerry 'forgot' to pay today, a gentle reminder of who pays for the milk:rolleyes:

Milked out

http://theglobaldairy.com/noticias/dairy-super-downcycle-now-on-says-rabobank-46892/

coolshannagh28

I am no expert but how has the price held up for high butterfat and protein milk from Jersey s for example?

Farmer Ed

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I am no expert but how has the price held up for high butterfat and protein milk from Jersey s for example?

No but as you are paid for kgs of protein and fat and price of milk from cows producing high solids should always make more per litre. But that milk will be hit by falling milk prices also.

alps

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I am no expert but how has the price held up for high butterfat and protein milk from Jersey s for example?

Milk price is not actually paid in cent/litre. You are actually paid for the kgs of fat and protein that you deliver. This payment for fat and protein is then reflected in a cent per litre price at a standard of 3.6 fat and 3 3 protein.
The farmer supplying high fat/high protein milk will earn in excess of this standard 3.6/3.3, so if this milk is 3c/l over the milk price at 25c/l it can be 4c/l over the milk price at 28c/l and so on.
Of course the reverse is the case when milk price is falling. The quoted standard 3.6/3.3 milk price may be down by 6c/l but the high solids operator will be down by 8c/l....culminating last November when some high solids operators were down 15c/l from the previous year.

It's an interesting point...do high solids operators loose more at low milk prices? Are low solids operators protected more? Ahemm

keep going

Just thinking there be a nice little thesis for a phycology student here on the different stages of peoples reaction to a crisis using the postings of dairy farmers on here."its not going to happen", "ouch this going to hurt", "its the end of the world",", there no way out","dont care anymore","do you know im still here","im managing","things arent so bad","things are flying it"

Buford T. Justice XIX

I remember when we got back milking in 1987, people were so depressed at milk making 80p a gallon and down from £1 a gallon the year before.

We were thrilled to be getting 80p and the cash flow that came with it during the summer. Happy days indeed.

It's all a matter of perception whether times are good or bad.

No point going crazy when milk is 24c or 44c, just carry on doing what you need to be doing.

kowtow

keep going wrote: »

Just thinking there be a nice little thesis for a phycology student here on the different stages of peoples reaction to a crisis using the postings of dairy farmers on here."its not going to happen", "ouch this going to hurt", "its the end of the world",", there no way out","dont care anymore","do you know im still here","im managing","things arent so bad","things are flying it"

As you say, it's all out there if you look for it. Greed, justification, fear, denial, hope, despair... it would be a great subject for a thesis: "white gold and the madness of crowds revisited"

alps

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

I remember when we got back milking in 1987, people were so depressed at milk making 80p a gallon and down from £1 a gallon the year before.

We were thrilled to be getting 80p and the cash flow that came with it during the summer. Happy days indeed.

It's all a matter of perception whether times are good or bad.

No point going crazy when milk is 24c or 44c, just carry on doing what you need to be doing.

And we're back to 80p a gallon again now....and we can produce all we want...flying it....

kowtow

Interesting article in the journal about US milk / butter demand including the thesis that the world market floor price is set by the high cost producers, with the implication that the US is among them (although no cost of production data). The issue being that the margin protection insurance in the US (not really, as suggested in the article, a direct government support but anyway) will put downward pressure on the floor price.

I calculate US cost of production to be between EUR 28c/kg milk sold and EUR 38/c kg depending on farm size and excluding the margin protection program. Those costs include all land, and labour (paid & unpaid) - some of the data set is from 2015 so it's possible that the low end is even a bit lower now due to grain / oil which I suspect would weigh heavily on the super dairy sized operation.

Hmmm.

Farmer Ed

alps wrote: »

And we're back to 80p a gallon again now....and we can produce all we want...flying it....

Just a small bit of a health a warning and I'm no economist. But when inflation is taken in to account. 80 pence per gallon in 1987 is the equivalent of roughly 53 c per litre in today's money. These figures really should bring home to us the steady decline in dairy prices over the last 30 years. If I'm right milk hit £1 a gallon in 1989. That's something like 63c/L in today's money.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic here. There is always a better way. But those are the hard facts..

browned

kowtow wrote: »

Interesting article in the journal about US milk / butter demand including the thesis that the world market floor price is set by the high cost producers, with the implication that the US is among them (although no cost of production data). The issue being that the margin protection insurance in the US (not really, as suggested in the article, a direct government support but anyway) will put downward pressure on the floor price.

I calculate US cost of production to be between EUR 28c/kg milk sold and EUR 38/c kg depending on farm size and excluding the margin protection program. Those costs include all land, and labour (paid & unpaid) - some of the data set is from 2015 so it's possible that the low end is even a bit lower now due to grain / oil which I suspect would weigh heavily on the super dairy sized operation.

Hmmm.

was talking to a guy who went on a few farm tours in the States last year. They visited a grazing farm which was producing milk for either 12 or 15c/litre all included and an indoor super dairy producing for either 22c/l or 18c/l. It was last year so that's why I'm not fully certain of the costs but they were scarily low when I heard them.

Buford T. Justice XIX

alps wrote: »

And we're back to 80p a gallon again now....and we can produce all we want...flying it....

Like I said, it's a matter of perception.

You can concentrate on the negatives or focus on the positives.

Me getting depressed about milk price isn't going to help me one iota so I'm going to concentrate on what's within my control.

Each to his own, I suppose.

Anyways, Kerry drop milk price 1.5c to 23.5c but pay 0.6c 13th payment on last years supply. If I was a cynic, I'd say they were paying last years topup with this years milk price....:pac:

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Interesting article in the journal about US milk / butter demand including the thesis that the world market floor price is set by the high cost producers, with the implication that the US is among them (although no cost of production data). The issue being that the margin protection insurance in the US (not really, as suggested in the article, a direct government support but anyway) will put downward pressure on the floor price.

I calculate US cost of production to be between EUR 28c/kg milk sold and EUR 38/c kg depending on farm size and excluding the margin protection program. Those costs include all land, and labour (paid & unpaid) - some of the data set is from 2015 so it's possible that the low end is even a bit lower now due to grain / oil which I suspect would weigh heavily on the super dairy sized operation.

Hmmm.

Would you be able to post those CoP figures Kowtow? I wouldn't mind a butchers.

browned

Farmer Ed wrote: »

You are totally correct in 99% of what you are saying. The problem is we are constantly told not to concern ourselves about what happens outside the farm gate. You even have people on hear suggesting the only reason we are not getting a good price for milk is because our solids are not good enough. The levies you have correctly identified are only the tip of the iceberg. How much more from the greater agricultural budget that is not itemised in your milk statement is all this costing farmers. The sting in the tail is that a lot of the boards of these quangos are made up of our fellow farmers. In effect we are being sold down the river by our own. Amazing what a position on a board can do to change someone's prospective. But you are dead right. It's about time we collectively woke up and shouted stop.

I seem to recall that I was the one who posted that improving solids would help farmers out financially. I added up all the levies I paid last month and they amounted to 0.371 Cent/litre for me while my solids gave me a 7.91 cents bonus above the average coop supplier. Are you saying i would have been better off focussing on a levy savings of 0.371cent/litre instead of the added value of 7.91cent/litre I got?

you've highlight plenty of ways in which coops are inefficient over the last couple of months. can you put them all together and show the total savings that can be got from implementing them. 7.91 cent/litre is roughly 435 million so if we subtract 21million for levies we'll get 414 million. realistically it should be easy to make up 414 million in savings in one year but how do you make the savings in the following years?

just to clarify im not opposed to increased efficiency across our coops but it would be nice to see someone put a value on it

Waffletraktor

Dawggone wrote: »

.


Local union rep called to me this morning to tell me to back off a local farm that's for sale...yea right!!

Who told him to do that then.. Bloody foreigners buying up the whole place!
I imagine something going down like, " if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen!!" With pyrotechnics and stuff. It's not straight forward to simply buy once you hit x ha's with SAFER, young farmers get 1st choice and so forth..

Dawggone

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Who told him to do that then.. Bloody foreigners buying up the whole place!
I imagine something going down like, " if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen!!" With pyrotechnics and stuff. It's not straight forward to simply buy once you hit x ha's with SAFER, young farmers get 1st choice and so forth..

Exactly.
Young farmers are the Christ incarnate...

fepper

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Like I said, it's a matter of perception.<br />
<br />
You can concentrate on the negatives or focus on the positives.<br />
<br />
Me getting depressed about milk price isn't going to help me one iota so I'm going to concentrate on what's within my control.<br />
<br />
Each to his own, I suppose.<br />
<br />
Anyways, Kerry drop milk price 1.5c to 23.5c but pay 0.6c 13th payment on last years supply. If I was a cynic, I'd say they were paying last years topup with this years milk price....<a href="{smilies}/pacman.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Pacman" smilieid="12" class="inlineimg" />

<br />
<br />
Kerry plc are saying its honoured its leading price,the 0.6l is a hardship payment due to continuing low milk prices

jaymla627

browned wrote: »

I seem to recall that I was the one who posted that improving solids would help farmers out financially. I added up all the levies I paid last month and they amounted to 0.371 Cent/litre for me while my solids gave me a 7.91 cents bonus above the average coop supplier. Are you saying i would have been better off focussing on a levy savings of 0.371cent/litre instead of the added value of 7.91cent/litre I got?

you've highlight plenty of ways in which coops are inefficient over the last couple of months. can you put them all together and show the total savings that can be got from implementing them. 7.91 cent/litre is roughly 435 million so if we subtract 21million for levies we'll get 414 million. realistically it should be easy to make up 414 million in savings in one year but how do you make the savings in the following years?

just to clarify im not opposed to increased efficiency across our coops but it would be nice to see someone put a value on it

What was your bf/pr for April to get that 7.91 cent on top of base price

browned

jaymla627 wrote: »

What was your bf/pr for April to get that 7.91 cent on top of base price

Sorry that was for March milk. April isn't out yet but won't be as high as fat dropped by .4%
4.67 and 3.71 for March.

mf240

browned wrote: »

Sorry that was for March milk. April isn't out yet but won't be as high as fat dropped by .4%
4.67 and 3.71 for March.

What kind of litres per cow if you dont mind the question.

browned

mf240 wrote: »

What kind of litres per cow if you dont mind the question.

Back to 16 now

Dawggone

browned wrote: »

Back to 16 now

Every little helps...:)

browned

Dawggone wrote: »

Every little helps...:)

1st calvers really killing the averages.

kevthegaff

browned wrote: »

1st calvers really killing the averages.

Scc? How many had u to cull first 2 years? Interesting prospect

Dawggone

browned wrote: »

1st calvers really killing the averages.

Will they continue to produce?
Early days.

kevthegaff

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to milk!

browned

kevthegaff wrote: »

Scc? How many had u to cull first 2 years? Interesting prospect

1st year doing it. Scc bouncing between 150-200. Prob cull 15% this year.

Dawggone

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to survive!

FYP.

browned

Dawggone wrote: »

Will they continue to produce?
Early days.

Maybe 1or 2 will dry up but Id say the rest will hold.

kevthegaff

browned wrote: »

1st year doing it. Scc bouncing between 150-200. Prob cull 15% this year.

You prob have higher conceptions?

Dawggone

browned wrote: »

Maybe 1or 2 will dry up but Id say the rest will hold.

Fair dues for posting.
Keep it up.

At least someone is being proactive rather than bit*hing and moaning about Cooperatives.

Thanks.

browned

kevthegaff wrote: »

You prob have higher conceptions?

Hopefully. Only 9 days breeding and 50% served, that'd be similar to tad levels so too early to say

atlantic mist

lorry driver was saying first week he had to put an extra tanker on the road, only one extra load and he cover a large area, any word on country supply to date?

lakelands offers fixed price scheme at 31c per liter, able to select 5-10% of supply not a lottery, our is a lottery any mechanism to audit how they select suppliers and quantities?

jaymla627

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think if the preverbial s""t hits the fan OAD and job may be a possibility that's if one still wants to milk!

I reckon it will go the other direction, a good solid herd doing 7500-8000 litres at around 7.5% solids of grass and say around 1.3 ton of nuts would be hard beat I reckon, simply put if I was only sending in 16 litres a cow at the minute even with exceptional solids I simply would have to pack it in as cash coming in simply wouldn't be enough to cover loan payments and all the rest

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

I reckon it will go the other direction, a good solid herd doing 7500-8000 litres at around 7.5% solids of grass and say around 1.3 ton of nuts would be hard beat I reckon, simply put if I was only sending in 16 litres a cow at the minute even with exceptional solids I simply would have to pack it in as cash coming in simply wouldn't be enough to cover loan payments and all the rest

Fully agree ,that's where I'd see it going too .fair play to browned though for giving it a go and posting it up here

kevthegaff

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

Personally when I hit say 50 and no successor showing interest ,no mortgage no/little debt I'd def go oad .great lifestyle

Timmaay

kevthegaff wrote: »

I see labour as the only one we can control, larger numbers per labour unit. Very interested in browneds set up too, as I say if things hit the fan or in later life OAD sounds feasible

Now that I've finally ditched the autumn calvers, I'll serious consider OAD during the winter, especially if I'm anything like the last few years and over suppling my liquid quota. I'd rather piss the litres away than give it to Glanbia for well less than it costs me, while giving them a stick to beat down people who are properly in liquid milk ha . But in all seriousness it definitely makes sense over Xmas any during January etc when I'd be often on holidays etc, saves on milk relief etc, could well make sense during November also when I'll probably have to start splitting the milking herd if housed as not enough cubicles in the yard with the parlour.

blackdog1

mahoney_j wrote:

Fully agree ,that's where I'd see it going too .fair play to browned though for giving it a go and posting it up here

Farm with my father and I think if I had to get a job I would put the herd on Oad so he could cope. Scc is 74-120 so it might work but I think it would be better if they were on Oad from calving rather than switching them mid season.