Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Miname

Dawggone wrote: »

Just gone to get my head examined...back soon.

It'll take them a while to examine that.

blackdog1

whelan2 wrote:

I dont read essay's . Most stuff can normally be posted in short to the point posts

I agree. I just want to know what other guys are producing, their solids, and if they're exceptional how they're doing it so I can learn. Dawg's post on feed are always illuminating. I no longer use distillers on grass anymore.

orm0nd

blackdog1 wrote: »

I agree. I just want to know what other guys are producing, their solids, and if they're exceptional how they're doing it so I can learn. Dawg's post on feed are always illuminating. I no longer use distillers on grass anymore.

I was 1 of the few that used to post price, solids, yields etc in hope that we could have a comparsion between co ops & how different sytems were working, but I couldn't be bothered my arse anymore

whelan2

In fairness when this thread was opened milk price was very good. Alot has changed since then, including the intoduction of msa's. Alot of people-including me- use this thread to vent. Apologies

Dawggone

Miname wrote: »

It'll take them a while to examine that.

Yep...nanoscience!

Farmer Ed

In fairness if we are allowed moan about milk price then I think anybody who promoted harvest 2020 can't complain about getting a mention. Like it or not wasting farmers money on overpriced and under used processing capacity is ultimately having an effect on milk price.

Waffletraktor

Farmer Ed wrote: »

In fairness if we are allowed moan about milk price then I think anybody who promoted harvest 2020 can't complain about getting a mention. Like it or not wasting farmers money on overpriced and under used processing capacity is ultimately having an effect on milk price.

I guess the drop in demand coinciding with massive levels of over production had nothing to do with it? :rolleyes:

kevthegaff

Lot of guys got agitated here in last few months, not sure was it roaming posters or price pressure which I can't understand. Processors, gov, farm lobby groups and ourselves as sheep to a lessor extent imo are all culpable in what has happened. But it's interesting to question these subjects. Base price is affected by all these internal and external factors, hence "milk price thread". The more posters on here adds to the debate.

kowtow

whelan2 wrote: »

I dont read essay's . Most stuff can normally be posted in short to the point posts

+1000

I don't even read my own posts when they go past a paragraph.

mahoney_j

kowtow wrote: »

+1000

I don't even read my own posts when they go past a paragraph.

Jaysus ,u obviously don't read back through much of ur posts so !!!!!
A lot of your posts I'd have to read a couple of times to truly understand what's going .in fairness always interesting and make sense

kevthegaff

As the auld lad says you'd learn something from a fool, not many on here tho!

pedigree 6

Forgive me not exactly a paragraph but an eu report published in oct last year on future milk production in Europe. Kind of related to milk price or could go in dairy thread.
Anyway make your own mind up on the report.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/569012/EPRS_BRI%282015%29569012_EN.pdf

Farmer Ed

Waffletraktor wrote: »

I guess the drop in demand coinciding with massive levels of over production had nothing to do with it? :rolleyes:

I never said it didn't but it wouldn't take a genius to figure out that putting all your eggs in the Chinese market was not a very safe place. Have a look at this link Just a sample of some of the nonsensical roaring from the cheerleaders. Poor investment bout on and off the farm ultimately has to be paid for by the farmer. http://www.merrionstreet.ie/en/Tags/F/Food-Harvest-2020.html

einn32

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/fonterra-cuts-milk-price-in-australia/news-story/b518f93412b23d0d5dbc2b972d21c24b

flutered

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I never said it didn't but it wouldn't take a genius to figure out that putting all your eggs in the Chinese market was not a very safe place. Have a look at this link Just a sample of some of the nonsensical roaring from the cheerleaders. Poor investment bout on and off the farm ultimately has to be paid for by the farmer. http://www.merrionstreet.ie/en/Tags/F/Food-Harvest-2020.html

back in the day something similar happened, the farm advisors were pushing every kind of scheme getting the farmers to borrow, i declined as i reconed the advisors were too fond of pushing the borrowing, the whole thing went tits up, the local advisor had to change his fone number and get a private one, he ended up retiring selling up and moving to a different county, while the folks who were advised to borrow had to keep shelling out

Farmer Ed

I wonder are we completly taking our eye off the ball? Interesting how the discount retailers are starting to think. Maybe rather than deciding that all the consumer wants, is farmers doing more paper work, maybe we need to be looking at the trends as to what they really want? http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/lidl-to-list-gmo-free-dairy-products-in-its-german-stores/ Board bia quality assurance won't be much good to us if our milk is branded as Gm milk. Can you just imagine the hysteria that could be created if a competitor could brand kerrygold as produced from GM feed?

atlantic mist

always wondered why they haven't pushed for gmo on our supplies, know the maize and soya in my feed are gmo, surely the ingredient we put into the cow filters throu to the milk all nuts coming from Plc currently can get them gmo free from Irish suppliers but are more expensive. Then again it's easy to dump a standard product on a market than having to work to push higher premium sales from a differenciated product like what consumers expect in developed country

freedominacup

atlantic mist wrote: »

always wondered why they haven't pushed for gmo on our supplies, know the maize and soya in my feed are gmo, surely the ingredient we put into the cow filters throu to the milk all nuts coming from Plc currently can get them gmo free from Irish suppliers but are more expensive. Then again it's easy to dump a standard product on a market than having to work to push higher premium sales from a differenciated product like what consumers expect in developed country

How hard would it be to source enough maize and soya in France for our requirements? Even if they made up thirty percent of the rations it couldn't be more than 200k tonnes.

Farmer Ed

atlantic mist wrote: »

always wondered why they haven't pushed for gmo on our supplies, know the maize and soya in my feed are gmo, surely the ingredient we put into the cow filters throu to the milk all nuts coming from Plc currently can get them gmo free from Irish suppliers but are more expensive. Then again it's easy to dump a standard product on a market than having to work to push higher premium sales from a differenciated product like what consumers expect in developed country

I believe Drinagh co op do a GMO free ration so it's not impossible. You'd imagine as we would be feeding less on average than other countries, we would have a competitive advantage if the industry did go down the GMO free route. I honestly think it could be a ticking time bomb that we can't ignore..whether or not the scientific argument is sound or not. gmo is a dirty word right now.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I believe Drinagh co op do a GMO free ration so it's not impossible. You'd imagine as we would be feeding less on average than other countries, we would have a competitive advantage if the industry did go down the GMO free route. I honestly think it could be a ticking time bomb that we can't ignore..whether or not the scientific argument is sound or not. gmo is a dirty word right now.

Just like vaccinations being linked to autism a few years ago. And that was shown up as manipulation of data but people still believe it.

I wonder how many people have died from eating GMO foods? Has there even been one?

Or how many have had reactions to eating GMO foods compared to conventional foods?

I wonder how many of the protesters refuse medicines as a growing portion of medicines are made using GMOs?

Bass Reeves

The Co-op have no interest in pursuing issue like this or of branding products. For Co-op to supply GM free feed they would have to source it for all there millimg operations. This would include white meat farmers and for beef and sheep farmers aas well. They could not store GM and non GM grain in the same yard so it is way easier to not have to segerate products. The logistics would be huge.

Most co-op are on a win win, They buy your milk and sell you fertlizer, feed and hardware. They seem to have good margins on these products. There tends to be a lazy attatude in Ireland to brandi ng products by processors(both milk and meat) and theose that do generally are brand generic food products. Kerry and Glanbia have also segrated the profitable PLC from the co-op and only want milk at the cheapest price possible.

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The Co-op have no interest in pursuing issue like this or of branding products. For Co-op to supply GM free feed they would have to source it for all there millimg operations. This would include white meat farmers and for beef and sheep farmers aas well. They could not store GM and non GM grain in the same yard so it is way easier to not have to segerate products. The logistics would be huge.

Most co-op are on a win win, They buy your milk and sell you fertlizer, feed and hardware. They seem to have good margins on these products. There tends to be a lazy attatude in Ireland to brandi ng products by processors(both milk and meat) and theose that do generally are brand generic food products. Kerry and Glanbia have also segrated the profitable PLC from the co-op and only want milk at the cheapest price possible.

In
I. Agree with you but why all the quality assurance. The average consumer couldn't give a dam about how much records a farmer keeps. But I would say the average consumer doesn't want GMO and their are people willing to supply that. We are seriously exposing ourselves if we ignore that.

yosemitesam1

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The Co-op have no interest in pursuing issue like this or of branding products. For Co-op to supply GM free feed they would have to source it for all there millimg operations. This would include white meat farmers and for beef and sheep farmers aas well. They could not store GM and non GM grain in the same yard so it is way easier to not have to segerate products. The logistics would be huge.

It could easily be done so that within maybe 12-18 months all grain the coops sell would be non gm. Dont see how it would be any harder than specifying non gm when ordering in a boatload.

Bass Reeves

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

It could easily be done so that within maybe 12-18 months all grain the coops sell would be non gm. Dont see how it would be any harder than specifying non gm when ordering in a boatload.

The problem is contamination between loads. Non Gm feed is slightly more expensive. Most maize etc comes from the US nearly all is GM now. It is impossible to clean the boats completely between loads. Nobody wants the liability of supplying non GM grain and finding a some GM grains in it.

Remember also when it arrived miller/co-op would need to keep it completely apart from GM feed. Most Poultry/pig/Beef meat production is using GM fed to some extent so if you wanted to supply non GM you would need separate mills.

Farmer Ed

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The problem is contamination between loads. Non Gm feed is slightly more expensive. Most maize etc comes from the US nearly all is GM now. It is impossible to clean the boats completely between loads. Nobody wants the liability of supplying non GM grain and finding a some GM grains in it.

Remember also when it arrived miller/co-op would need to keep it completely apart from GM feed. Most Poultry/pig/Beef meat production is using GM fed to some extent so if you wanted to supply non GM you would need separate mills.

To be honest I don't know the logistics of it but it must be possible. If Drinagh can supply it must be. As to the cost I have no idea but am I correct in saying that one of the European co ops is offering a premium of 1 cent per litre for Gmo free milk? That to me would suggest the cost difference can not be that great as the cost is hardly likely to be greater than the 1 cent return.

Actually the higher the cost difference, you could make the point that it would give us a competitive advantage as on average we don't feed as much as the 100% indoor systems. My biggest concern is that inspite of us having the image of probably the greenest milk in Europe. Others are going the get one up on us. If we are really serious about having a premium product. Quality assurance schemes and records of feeding GMO feed are not going to do us any good. It may be hysteria but just today I read an article that claimed food allergys in the us had increased by 260% since the introduction of Gm in to the food chain. It may well be rubbish but if people start to have doubts and we could end up getting branded as producing GMO milk. Do we want to take that risk?

Water John

Whilst I agree that any USP should be looked at and availed of, if its possible. The farmer must get his fair share at all times.
Looks like Tesco feel, a fair farmer price is a USP in the UK market but not in Ireland!!
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/tesco-uk-milk-now-carries-fair-for-farmers-price-guarantee/

This is where both lobbying and good work with the public by farm organisations comes into play.

rangler1

Water John wrote: »

Whilst I agree that any USP should be looked at and availed of, if its possible. The farmer must get his fair share at all times.
Looks like Tesco feel, a fair farmer price is a USP in the UK market but not in Ireland!!
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/tesco-uk-milk-now-carries-fair-for-farmers-price-guarantee/

This is where both lobbying and good work with the public by farm organisations comes into play.

Tesco isn't paying the same for all their suppliers milk.....only what they can sell.
They're also using milk as a loss leader, 4 pints for a pound, my cousins in england tell me and driving down milk price in all the shops.
And all that with only 600 suppliers, be careful what you wish for.
Tesco must be pissed off with the MSAs they signed too

Water John

I am aware Rangler, that this Fair Price is a niche in their market.
Just looking out for options always.
Tesco wouldn't be my flavour of the month, I can assure you.

boggerman1

Latest gdt down 0.4%.over 35000 tons on offer

kowtow

boggerman1 wrote: »

Latest gdt down 0.4%.over 35000 tons on offer

Not too bad a result given the state of oil & dollar, softs since last GDT...

RightTurnClyde

kowtow wrote: »

Not too bad a result given the state of oil & dollar, softs since last GDT...

What's the reason for the dollar/oils woes

kowtow

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

What's the reason for the dollar/oils woes

Any number of reasons but - IMO - fundamentally we are in something of an oil downturn.. there was quite a (surprisingly) strong retracement back up off the lows earlier in the spring but the market didn't need much of an excuse to sell off again and Brexit, volatility, lower growth and stronger dollar were all good enough excuses - there were also some fairly strong inventory figures I think. We'll have to see whether it gets down below about 47/48 bucks a barrel in the next few days, might then get a bit of a picture of it's direction.

The dollar strength might be better expressed as sterling / euro weakness, it's all relative in the end - but there's a rather febrile air about things at the moment, unbelievably low yields in treasuries all over the world, The Swiss franc is at a negative yield 50 years out which is insane.

Milk wise of course the lower euro is probably locally helpful vis a ve the GDT price, although lower sterling is more helpful yet - both of those might keep producers pumping more & longer while the strong dollar & cheap oil doesn't help world demand.... we'll have to watch to make sure demand doesn't fall off quicker than supply is reduced during the next phase of these markets.

pedigree 6

The strong dollar (weak Euro and sterling ) maybe might have an impact on US dairy exports and finally might slow down expansion there?
However the US have been buying cheese like no tomorrow from the Eu for the last year because of the price difference.
So maybe their producers will feel some of the pain we have had for the last year now?

kowtow

pedigree 6 wrote: »

The strong dollar (weak Euro and sterling ) maybe might have an impact on US dairy exports and finally might slow down expansion there?
However the US have been buying cheese like no tomorrow from the Eu for the last year because of the price difference.
So maybe their producers will feel some of the pain we have had for the last year now?

Could well be right.. in the end apart from academic pleasure there is little to be gained by picking apart these massively interconnected webs. It's like trying to work out which water molecule is pushing which when what really counts is whether the tide is coming in or out.... makes life easy for journalists though when prices move and all you have to do is pick any one of a number of factors out of a hat.

Theres an FAO (I think) report mentioned in the press today forecasting 10 years of lower ag commodity prices, haven't looked at the detail of it yet so didn't post it but I think that has been - for the last few months - and remains the big question.. if we are at the start of a bear run for commodities what sort of range of export milk prices from low to high is that likely to imply, and how much capacity do future currency fluctuations have to dent or shift that range..

kevthegaff

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/era-high-agricultural-prices/

yosemitesam1

pedigree 6 wrote: »

The strong dollar (weak Euro and sterling ) maybe might have an impact on US dairy exports and finally might slow down expansion there?
However the US have been buying cheese like no tomorrow from the Eu for the last year because of the price difference.
So maybe their producers will feel some of the pain we have had for the last year now?

Would a strong dollar lower grain prices for them and balance out against milk prices?

rangler1

kevthegaff wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/era-high-agricultural-prices/

Didn't need agriland to tell you that,!!!!!!!!, hasn't been a decent price for anything since the good subsidies started

Timmaay

kevthegaff wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/era-high-agricultural-prices/

Ugh that totally flies in the face of this report from 2014 which is the only reason I returned to farming. I ain't losing the deposit I've put on the Lamborghini though ha .

http://www.fwi.co.uk/business/farmers-will-be-driving-lamborghinis-investor-tells-nfu-conference.htm

pedigree 6

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Would a strong dollar lower grain prices for them and balance out against milk prices?

I was just thinking that as i finished that post. I'm not sure. The US is a big exporter of grain around the world and maybe their corn price would stay the same and other corn where currency is falling rise to meet theirs.

kowtow

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I was just thinking that as i finished that post. I'm not sure. The US is a big exporter of grain around the world and maybe their corn price would stay the same and other corn where currency is falling rise to meet theirs.

From a traders perspective, the market has so little desire for paper money that you have to pay to store it safely (negative interest rates)... but unfortunately the only thing it wants less than dollars is grain, hence strong dollar, weaker commodities.

The paragraph above is intended by way of explanation, rather than any sort of prediction.

RightTurnClyde

On milk production Germany and Netherlands powering ahead. UK,France and Ireland pulling back
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/uk-milk-production

kowtow

For anybody interested I managed to find the fao datasets and i extracted the real and nominal price forecast for SMP through to 2025, which is the baseline forecast of the report referenced above.

I don't have time to try and figure out a blend of dairy commodities which reflects our milk prices, but if you are lazy like me you will observe that the SMP dollar price, divided by 1000, looks uncannily close to the highs and lows we have seen in Ireland in recent years, so while it could hardly be a true guide to farmer returns it might give some idea of what the FAO landscape looks like and how it relates to Ireland.

And given that Harvest 2020 was based on a fag packet analysis of the previous FAO report, this seems like the best set of figures to use for comparison.

The red line is real powder prices (adjusted for expected inflation) and the blue line is nominal prices (what powder is worth in dollars).

The actual price, of course, will cycle back and forth much more than the forecasted model suggests, the question is whether these forecasts have any meaning for those trying to make predictions about average / mid cycle prices... the forecast line would be about 20 (real) and 25 (nominal) in 2020, 24 (real) and 32 (nominal) in 2025...

pedigree 6

I was just thinking what we need is a high oil price that would lead to higher costs on highly mechanised farms.
It would also lead to increased ethanol production taking corn out of feed supply.
Which would increase corn prices and cause intensive farms to reduce milk supply. Thereby causing milk price to increase.

I wonder should we declare war on Saudi Arabia and Iran and also when we're at it shut down the shale gas fields in America.:D

I am watching the tv series "The men who built America" atm and john d Rockefeller had the right idea. Don't get involved with the boom and bust oil wells but concentrate on refining the crude oil. Let the grunters take all the risk.:p

Water John

I think Ped, you must become a milk processor, not a producer. is that lesson.

alps

pedigree 6 wrote: »

I am watching the tv series "The men who built America" atm and john d Rockefeller had the right idea. Don't get involved with the boom and bust oil wells but concentrate on refining the crude oil. Let the grunters take all the risk.:p

Too many of us signed up as grunters at this stage Ped.....

Gonna take some ingenuity at this stage to swing it around.....but who knows....

alps

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

On milk production Germany and Netherlands powering ahead. UK,France and Ireland pulling back
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/uk-milk-production

Netherlands have pushed on hard for environmental reasons. They have had a retrospective environmental stocking rate limit imposed on them which goes back to July 2 last year. There effective sticking rate is set from that date. They increased stock numbers as hard as possible over the last few yrs to get as high a reference as possible.

This had quiet a detrimental effect on their profitability figures, but they suffered it short term to get their base up.

Their plan now is to remove all young stock from their farms, and replace them or hold milking the increased cow numbers. As Holland has such a high stocking rate, the next move is to have the young stock contract reared in Germany and other nearby countries. ..

einn32

I was reading that the number of oil tankers docked off oil refineries/ports around the world is higher than normal. It's usually a method of storing oil for a while and selling it when oil price is high but the reason these days is that it can't be refined quick enough there is such a glut.

kowtow

alps wrote:

Their plan now is to remove all young stock from their farms, and replace them or hold milking the increased cow numbers. As Holland has such a high stocking rate, the next move is to have the young stock contract reared in Germany and other nearby countries. ..

As always, good intentions + more regulation = unintended consequences.

alps

kowtow wrote: »

As always, good intentions + more regulation = unintended consequences.

Yep...its incredible really the output from these Dutch farms. 80%grassland now, gone away to a large extent from cropping so that all these farms can get into derogation.

This really for dairy chit chat so ill move there

whelan2

How did Glanbia fare out in the kpmg milk price table in today's journal. Link won't open on phone