Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

jaymla627

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Is this a milk price thread or a firebrigade tread? Or even a serves those bloody greedy dairy farmers right thread.
As for milk price and dairy farm income, IMO the biggest immediate decision facing this country at the moment is, do we avail of the package offered to us by Brussels or not? The money is allocated. It's not going to make any difference to the non dairy guys at this stage if we avail of it or not. IMO I think it would be an act of treason for the minister not to allow farmers the option to avail of the package if they so wish. It might not make anyone rich, but right now the prospect of getting 14c /l for every litre less produced for the last 3 months of 2016 compared to 2015 is a pretty attractive offer?

Can't see 150 million covering thus scheme costs, if it gets a massive uptake and say costs 300-400 million their will be a t and c's not eat the bottom I reckon that will cut the rate to suit

Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Is this a milk price thread or a firebrigade tread? Or even a serves those bloody greedy dairy farmers right thread.

Apologies for taking the thread off topic but your post kinda demonstrates the point. This guy loses the value of a couple of hundred Irish cows in a few minutes without any insurance or recompense, and the free money from the EU takes precedence...I've seen threads go off topic about a heifer getting mastitis!
Navel gazing.
Mods remove if you want.

Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Wow you should really have reported that to the French met office as 44* is a new record for France http://www.thelocal.fr/20160720/storms-on-the-way-after-frances-record-heatwave

???

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

???

44c is a new record for France. Pretty impressive.

Kovu

Farmer Ed wrote: »

44c is a new record for France. Pretty impressive.

Records are measured in the shade. I highly doubt you'd be working in the fields in the shade.

Farmer Ed

Kovu wrote: »

Records are measured in the shade. I highly doubt you'd be working in the fields in the shade.

OK still pretty impressive. I guess prof of global warming. Can only imagine how uncomfortable all that hot air must be.

Kovu

Farmer Ed wrote: »

OK still pretty impressive. I guess prof of global warming. Can only imagine how uncomfortable all that hot air must be.

Indeed.

Back on topic please, as you were so keen to keep it on topic earlier.

boggerman1

I for one if will not take up the option of that money for stopping milking.I don't believe that dairy farmers should be singled out for special treatment either.it seems that the guys that have sunk themselves with fancy new parlours,doubling of numbers on the back of cheerleading from the journal and teagasc and have big superlevy bills self inflicted are crying the most.we are in a global market and just have to get on with it.if u can't stand the heat get the hell out of the kitchen.I know if I go tits up it will be myself to blame but I would be determined to start again if and make a better go of it

kevthegaff

Not a hope money's will cover take up

Coolfresian

23.8c/litre with 3.54 protein 3.8 butterfat scc 80 No milk in fixed price schemes. Big drop on last years cheque.

Farmer Ed

boggerman1 wrote: »

I for one if will not take up the option of that money for stopping milking.I don't believe that dairy farmers should be singled out for special treatment either.it seems that the guys that have sunk themselves with fancy new parlours,doubling of numbers on the back of cheerleading from the journal and teagasc and have big superlevy bills self inflicted are crying the most.we are in a global market and just have to get on with it.if u can't stand the heat get the hell out of the kitchen.I know if I go tits up it will be myself to blame but I would be determined to start again if and make a better go of it

You may well be correct but the beauty of this scheme is that you may well qualify for it without even planning to.It is only for the months of October November and December. Last year's back was a great year for milk. There is absolutely no guarantee this year will be as good. It's totally voluntary and at worst if we get a poor back end it's almost like having an insurance policy. And with prices as they are I could see a lot of people going once a day from October on. At the end of the day the money is available. Why on earth should we decide not to allow Irish farmers to avail of the scheme? It may also give the processors a bit of an opertunity to get stuff out of storage and could have the desired effect. Of all the countries in the Eu it is Taylor made for us with our mainly spring calving system.

It might also put pressure on processors to pay for Wimter milk so even if you are planning to drive on regardless you could still benefit indirectly.

kevthegaff

Coolfresian wrote:

23.8c/litre with 3.54 protein 3.8 butterfat scc 80 No milk in fixed price schemes. Big drop on last years cheque.

Who are ye with? Hard to believe government after setting targets only last year of 50% increase are now subsidising under production. Me thinks maybe expansion could be the way forward, reverse of everything they tell us

Farmer Ed

kevthegaff wrote: »

Not a hope money's will cover take up

Possibly not but if we are not allowed to even apply the money that is available will go elsewhere.

whelan2

Coolfresian wrote: »

23.8c/litre with 3.54 protein 3.8 butterfat scc 80 No milk in fixed price schemes. Big drop on last years cheque.

23.24cpl with milk in fixed price schemes :cool:

Coolfresian

kevthegaff wrote: »

Who are ye with? Hard to believe government after setting targets only last year of 50% increase are now subsidising under production. Me thinks maybe expansion could be the way forward, reverse of everything they tell us

Glanbia, very dissappointed with their performance this year. Should be at least matching the smaller co-ops. And farmers in the area sending tankers of milk north and still able to get a better base price. Glanbia and the board need a serious rethink.

Yea but i dont think il be expanding to give away cheap milk. Milking 140 here at the moment and its enough at this price. If things dont improve numbers will be cut. Its lucky we didnt hit a poor year weather wise with the current price as well.

Farmer Ed

kevthegaff wrote: »

Who are ye with? Hard to believe government after setting targets only last year of 50% increase are now subsidising under production. Me thinks maybe expansion could be the way forward, reverse of everything they tell us

No the Irish government are taking about a net 70% increase now up to 2025. It's the Eu have come up with this scheme and I recon it's not exactly compatible with some of the predictions coming from the Irish. To be fair it's only a temporary measure anyway and why would we go looking a gift horse in the mouth. If lads want to drive on more luck to them. But why turn you nose up at money for nothing?

Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

To be fair it's only a temporary measure anyway and why would we go looking a gift horse in the mouth. But why turn you nose up at money for nothing?

Nail on the head there, Farmer Ed.

This was a very interesting thread when posters like Kev and Browned etc were proactive about dealing with the new reality...

Now the thread could be called " Cos I'm worth it/ used to it/downright deserve it"...


Boring.

kevthegaff

Dawggone wrote:

Now the thread could be called " Cos I'm worth it/ used to it/downright deserve it"...

Dawggone wrote:

Boring.

Lol, where would u go if you were still on the emerald Isle dawg increase numbers, oad, cs(think u said u would copy browned if not mistaken) Personally at a crossroads here weighing up options.Honestly like the slavery but considering part time dairying if possible, no animal under 2 yrs just milking, simple system. Won't make any drastic decisions just yet, but I reckon the nxt 3 yrs world market will tell alot in the future of dairy in this country.

kevthegaff

Interesting to here people's plan b?

Timmaay

kevthegaff wrote: »

Interesting to here people's plan b?

Plan b is to stay milking long term lol. Plan A is to move along when I get bored and do other stuff with life!

But I'm happy with the measures I've taken as is, very little capital expenditure, simple all spring system. Once milk averages the likes of 27c I should survive medium term, longer term if it doesn't push on towards 30 the farm will be running into a state of disrepair from a lack of investment, sheds, reseeding, machinary etc, and it will be time to pack in dairying for definite. However I'd say I'll be sick of earning fookall before I get that far if milk didn't bounce. Either way I'm luck the exit door is always nearby due to low borrowings.

visatorro

kevthegaff wrote: »

Interesting to here people's plan b?

Am working Kev. Get a wage which is obviously vital and I think it's made me a safer farmer. In ways I'm a lazy farmer though because I haven't time to do things properly here. Even this week I should have silage in but I haven't time to strip the silage pit. Who knows what next week will bring. I can't AI stock so breeding my own quality replacements is next to impossible. I can't manage grass aswell as I could.

OAD is somewhat appealing but I'd really want to at least double size of parlour. Which I don't want to do.

Robot is an option I'm looking at. There's loads of pro's and cons. But I'd still have to get up an hour early before work and stick the head in.
Also flying herd appeals to me but what do I do with the bits of land iv scattered around the place?
BTW iv always worked off farm. I was never full-time farming.

Dawggone

kevthegaff wrote: »

Lol, where would u go if you were still on the emerald Isle dawg increase numbers, oad, cs(think u said u would copy browned if not mistaken) Personally at a crossroads here weighing up options.Honestly like the slavery but considering part time dairying if possible, no animal under 2 yrs just milking, simple system. Won't make any drastic decisions just yet, but I reckon the nxt 3 yrs world market will tell alot in the future of dairy in this country.

+1.

I honestly don't know Kev. I'm in this market now and will make the most of it or get out. Math/accounting will/would make my decision for me.
Same as you flying herd now and ready to duck and dive...
I'd take what info I want/need from Browned, yourself et al, and make up my own mind.
See, open discussion about what to do next is why I'm here, not why l deserve a superior living because I work more than Joe blah.
Every man to his own. If I've a wet/mountainy corner I'll take some info from the Irish Grassland day yesterday etc.

Saying that, Waffle is bang on about there being no future in producing bog standard commodities. No future. In that I'm certain...


To answer your question...yes expand, but not into bottom end commodities.

As always, open to discussion.

Dawggone

kevthegaff wrote: »

Interesting to here people's plan b?

+1.
Now you're sucking the gazole!

visatorro

Just say you didn't want to milk cows yourself Dawggone, would you manage someone else's farm for a guaranteed wage, with add ons and such? Just asking.


On a side note about diversification a friend of mine is buying sweets by the tonne from Europe. Putting them in little plastic bags. Selling them in shops and doubling his money. Just saying there's more to life than milking cows!!!

Keepgrowing

This plan B chat is quiet interesting.

People will certainly consider options such as OAD, early dry off etc.

Many have no option but to push as much milk as possible off their farms in order to maintain cash flow to meet commitments to financial institutions. There's no doubt that's what's required at this time but it can't last indefinatly. Paying bills is fine but there must be a wedge left for the farmer.
With people thinking of cutting back I'd be of a mind to actually charge on. There's perhaps something not right with me but doing the opposite to what most farmers are doing seems to be what I'm most comfortable with.

I did most of my business expansion during quota thriugh a series of equity arrangements and leasing. I'd be keen to use others resources as much as I could. I'm actually breaking ground tomorrow on a greenfield site. We are installing cubicles and slurry storage in order to carry more cows.

In the shoe term I'll get this operation up and running with a young guy taking a 50% stake in 2 yrs time. He's about to go to NZ for a years experience followed by 6 mths with a top Welch operator. He's then starting off here.

He currently has heifer calves with a contract rearer with an option to bring here.

After 5 yrs of consolidation in my business I feel it's time to move again as there's massive value to be had.

Mad to be thinking this way I know however after a lifetime of being told I'm mad..............it'd be rude to disappoint

alps

Great news tonight....if this 14c/l for reduced supply comes in as proposed it will be like manna from heaven.

Apply to claim over a 3 month period with no penalty on applying and supplying anyway....

Milked through last winter and to be honest didn't make enough profit to justify...but this year to get 14c/l to dry off early and claim on 25k litres of december milk(don't know if January will work) . Less work...less feed demand...more money....I'm on a high....This has just been promoted to my A plan.

Keepgrowing

alps wrote: »

Great news tonight....if this 14c/l for reduced supply comes in as proposed it will be like manna from heaven.

Apply to claim over a 3 month period with no penalty on applying and supplying anyway....

Milked through last winter and to be honest didn't make enough profit to justify...but this year to get 14c/l to dry off early and claim on 25k litres of december milk(don't know if January will work) . Less work...less feed demand...more money....I'm on a high....This has just been promoted to my A plan.

Just read the link, its a nobrainer. Reduce supply by 100k litres and get 14k to sit on your ass.......take hand and all

It'll mean that my winter milk won't be competing with guys snigging stake cows. I wonder how Areabawn and Arrivo view this? They may have some bother filling Tesco contract now as they didn't have enough contracted farmers to do so and if there's an up take of this reduced production payoff they'll deffo struggle. I'd say there may be a price for winter milk now.

Unintended consequence

Farmer Ed

A lot of people under a lot of financial pressure at the moment and the last thing they need is to be listening to is virtual willy waving from people who probably never Milked a cow or at least never owned a cow in real life Absolutely good to hear people having a plan b. There has to be a better way it's not a race it's just about making a living at the end of the day. One things for sure if all this goes belly up more than dairy farmers will be in trouble.. A lot of money owed out there. .

Farmer Ed

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Just read the link, its a nobrainer. Reduce supply by 100k litres and get 14k to sit on your ass.......take hand and all

It'll mean that my winter milk won't be competing with guys snigging stake cows. I wonder how Areabawn and Arrivo view this? They may have some bother filling Tesco contract now as they didn't have enough contracted farmers to do so and if there's an up take of this reduced production payoff they'll deffo struggle. I'd say there may be a price for winter milk now.

Unintended consequence

Simple answer if processors want winter milk they will have to pay for it and that can only be good for farmers. A lot of Ifa guys throwing rattles out of the pram because of the Tesco contact. Some of them I'm not sure why as their co op no longer does liquid milk.

Dawggone

visatorro wrote: »

Just say you didn't want to milk cows yourself Dawggone, would you manage someone else's farm for a guaranteed wage, with add ons and such? Just asking.

Short answer no.
I dislike dairying.

I've managed tillage farms in the past but could never whip up some enthusiasm for the job. I suppose I'm just too old now.

oxjkqg

ButterFat 3.82
Protein 3.46
SCC 163
24.31 cent per litre nett
no milk in fixed scheme
Kerry supplier

kowtow

boggerman1 wrote:

I for one if will not take up the option of that money for stopping milking.I don't believe that dairy farmers should be singled out for special treatment either.it seems that the guys that have sunk themselves with fancy new parlours,doubling of numbers on the back of cheerleading from the journal and teagasc and have big superlevy bills self inflicted are crying the most.we are in a global market and just have to get on with it.if u can't stand the heat get the hell out of the kitchen.I know if I go tits up it will be myself to blame but I would be determined to start again if and make a better go of it

Hell I haven't been given any money by anyone for starting milking yet. It would be a pity to take some for stopping.

kowtow

My plan B is coming from Holland later in the year..

kevthegaff

kowtow wrote:

My plan B is coming from Holland later in the year..

Are you allowed to bring them in??

kowtow

kevthegaff wrote:

Are you allowed to bring them in??

Ah yes.. everything is legal till about plan 'E'

whelan2

My 2 big loans are finishing up in the next 12 months, plan was to do a bit of building . Will see how milk price is when loans are finished whether we will build or slow down, no point slaving away for feck all return

freedominacup

whelan2 wrote: »

My 2 big loans are finishing up in the next 12 months, plan was to do a bit of building . Will see how milk price is when loans are finished whether we will build or slow down, no point slaving away for feck all return

You're young enough, your eldest seems to be heading home, you're going to have to keep her lit for a while yet.

Water John

ICOS throwing a wobbler on this 14 cent, Ha.
IFA response not much better.

Keepgrowing

Water John wrote: »

ICOS throwing a wobbler on this 14 cent, Ha.
IFA response not much better.

To be expected, I'd say processors are squealing at the prospect of reduced through put. The bleat about the bad markets while their margins are unaffected

whelan2

freedominacup wrote: »

You're young enough, your eldest seems to be heading home, you're going to have to keep her lit for a while yet.

Don't want to pressure him into staying at home. Don't think farming will be a great way of life in the future.

kowtow

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't want to pressure him into staying at home. Don't think farming will be a great way of life in the future.

It'll always be a great way of life, the question is whether it will be a good living.

But I wouldn't give up hope just yet. Things change.

I'm not sure farming for the next generation will be the way our grandfathers thought it would be.. but I'm equally certain it won't turn out quite the way the agri-business monsters think it will either.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Keepgrowing wrote: »

To be expected, I'd say processors are squealing at the prospect of reduced through put. The bleat about the bad markets while their margins are unaffected

This X 1000.

I can't see any change though, unless it gets so bad that 10-15% of suppliers get out. That would take up to 10% of milk production but it's always the small supplier that's under pressure first. It may start to dawn on processors at that stage that they are more dependent on us than we are on them.

boggerman1

Letter in the post from my co-op today offering to put up to 25% of supply from july1st to 31st Dec at a fixed price of €0.249 vat inc.I haven't any milk in any of the schemes so far.my co-op is centenary

kowtow

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

This X 1000.

I can't see any change though, unless it gets so bad that 10-15% of suppliers get out. That would take up to 10% of milk production but it's always the small supplier that's under pressure first. It may start to dawn on processors at that stage that they are more dependent on us than we are on them.

The only thing at the moment in Ireland is that - all else being equal - the small supplier may well be the one carrying no / less debt & rented land. If that does turn out to be true then on a cash cost basis anyway his pips will take a bit longer to squeak than those of the farm that has expanded fast, especially if there is a superlevy issue as well.

kevthegaff

Not too many plan B's, co ops don't need too many msa s as farmers are reluctant with other options. Can see some older guys leaving if crisis prolongs, some of the bigger guys could be working for the banks for the future

whelan2

kevthegaff wrote: »

Not too many plan B's, co ops don't need too many msa s as farmers are reluctant with other options. Can see some older guys leaving if crisis prolongs, some of the bigger guys could be working for the banks for the future

Thats it though, if you owe alot of money over a long time what is the plan b?

alps

boggerman1 wrote: »

Letter in the post from my co-op today offering to put up to 25% of supply from july1st to 31st Dec at a fixed price of €0.249 vat inc.I haven't any milk in any of the schemes so far.my co-op is centenary

What's your current price boggerman? Bit to weigh up here. Are you contracted to supply milk in December if you sign up? Does it remove your choice of drying off early if weather/feed availability or even the price of the rest of your milk dictates?
Would it mean you could not sign up to taking 14c/l for reducing supply?
Or could the offer of this fixed option be to offset other offerings now available?

It is short term and you should be set to benefit over the higher supply months of July to October...

Farmer Ed

whelan2 wrote: »

Thats it though, if you owe alot of money over a long time what is the plan b?

Would say either find an alternative income fast or just hope and pray things will get better. Otherwise the only other plan b would be to sell out and chalk it down to a bad experience. Not something most red blooded farmers would chose to do without a heavy heart. Very stressful to be in that situation. No point in blaming or pointing the finger or feeling smug. Horrible situation to be in.

Buford T. Justice XIX

kowtow wrote: »

The only thing at the moment in Ireland is that - all else being equal - the small supplier may well be the one carrying no / less debt & rented land. If that does turn out to be true then on a cash cost basis anyway his pips will take a bit longer to squeak than those of the farm that has expanded fast, especially if there is a superlevy issue as well.

Good point, kt, debt is the real killer in low price years. You will still have to pay regardless of input or output prices unless you can get some sort of debt deal with the banks.

I was talking to a bank rep last Tuesday and he was saying that banks prefer if people realise there is a problem on the way and discuss options to deal with it before it becomes a problem, 'just like we always do,' sez he.

I didn't like to point out my experiences of that discussion with him in case i would be walking back to my car:rolleyes: but that's just my experience:(

kevthegaff

I'll do my best to make my repayments, nothing worst than seeing them increase through interest. Talking to accountant recently, many guys gone interest only, I'd get another source of income if possible rather than this scenario. Honestly believe that there is many hard cases we don't know of YET. Heard a story that this new glanbia loan means they can clear some merchant credit through some of the funds.