Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Farmer Ed

Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions

rangler1

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions

Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price

yewtree

Seems likely that production will be down in NZ this year due to heavy culling of cows, even if price starts to pick up they won't have cows to increase production.
Also word from coops is production for July is back 2-3% on July 2015, seems finally farmers are taking notice of market signals. Big drop in uk supplies in the last 6weeks aswell
I think there is likely to be modest increases of farm gate prices by the end of the year. The question is how quickly the recovery happens and at what price it levels off at, it has a long way to go before its back to sustainable levels.

Farmer Ed

rangler1 wrote: »

Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price

At lest you will have something to look forward to. No point and getting depressed when you find out you neighbour is not losing money.

leg wax

give it a year for any real movement in our pockets, all stored stuff will have to be cleared.

Timmaay

leg wax wrote: »

give it a year for any real movement in our pockets, all stored stuff will have to be cleared.

What does that realistically mean for most farmers? I'm lucky to have fairly small borrowings here, but the grand total of capital investment this year here will be 2 lorry loads of concrete ha.

Bass Reeves

rangler1 wrote: »

Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price

If cows are slaughtered it could take three years for numbers to rise again unless farmers have culled on the strenght of having excess heifers. In reality what happens is lads that are losing serious money cull strongly where as lads that can survive at 22-25c/L keep on producing. You also see older farmers exiting the businessand these can take a few years to replace this is what is a cyclic business

yosemitesam1

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions

Very few would read it if it had negative views the whole time...

kowtow

Certainly signs that the market has found it's low for the time being, which is helpful even if the price itself is still depressing.

On a macro level I'd be a bit concerned that the oil price remains so soft - meanwhile given that the harvest outlook is not the bumper it might have been in Europe it will be interesting to see how grains etc. play out for the rest of the summer..

Time for a cautiously hopeful outlook, I would think, although I for one will be surprised if we see sustained highs anywhere near the level of a couple of years ago in the next cycle.

rangler1

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If cows are slaughtered it could take three years for numbers to rise again unless farmers have culled on the strenght of having excess heifers. In reality what happens is lads that are losing serious money cull strongly where as lads that can survive at 22-25c/L keep on producing. You also see older farmers exiting the businessand these can take a few years to replace this is what is a cyclic business

all I see around me is farmers driving on, certainly not cutting back

whelan2

Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

boggerman1

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

But hey they are great lads though giving out "free" money in their advanced payment scam...sorry scheme.

Bass Reeves

rangler1 wrote: »

all I see around me is farmers driving on, certainly not cutting back

Irish number relative to world wide production is immaterial we produce 2% of the world export product. It is good that Irish milk production has come through so strong as it shows that our cost base is comparable with any other world producer. Because Irish production base has not dropped to any great extent it means that we should reap the benefit of the upswing in prices

kevthegaff

I have a feeling it will be a slow upturn if any ATM. Hopefully improvement will come by spring 17 for all our sake bar rangler lol

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

Sure you're looking at it the wrong way round. Turn it around and they are on the top. #sorted

kowtow

Bass Reeves wrote:

Irish number relative to world wide production is immaterial we produce 2% of the world export product. It is good that Irish milk production has come through so strong as it shows that our cost base is comparable with any other world producer. Because Irish production base has not dropped to any great extent it means that we should reap the benefit of the upswing in prices

I'm not sure it shows anything about our cost base except perhaps that most of our farms are not yet sufficiently in debt, nor large enough, that they need to make a profit.

If we have in fact reached a low in the market for the time being what will be interesting is how much and how fast expansion resumes on the near term.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

I'm not sure it shows anything about our cost base except perhaps that most of our farms are not yet sufficiently in debt, nor large enough, that they need to make a profit.

+1.

Dawggone

If milk hits to 30cpl or more (25cpl Irish price), I for one will be turning on the taps. Should amount to another 2k litres per cow or more...I have to say I'm looking forward to making a few quid to cover losses from tillage.

Farmer Ed

Dairy processors urged to pass on market gains to farmers in tough financial year @agrilandIreland http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dairy-processors-urged-to-pass-on-market-gains-to-farmers-in-tough-financial-year/

rangler1

kevthegaff wrote: »

I have a feeling it will be a slow upturn if any ATM. Hopefully improvement will come by spring 17 for all our sake bar rangler lol

Long enough farming to have become a realist, have been heavily criticised in the past for predicting what happened in dairying in 2015.
Can't have your eyes in the sky all the time.......especially when your feet's in the ****e

Farmer Ed

Dawggone wrote: »

Short answer no.
I dislike dairying.

I've managed tillage farms in the past but could never whip up some enthusiasm for the job. I suppose I'm just too old now.

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Dawggone

Farmer Ed wrote: »

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Read the thread, ed.

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

If milk hits to 30cpl or more (25cpl Irish price), I for one will be turning on the taps. Should amount to another 2k litres per cow or more...I have to say I'm looking forward to making a few quid to cover losses from tillage.

Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

rangler1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

Be hard to hit 14c when intervention is paying 20c, you could be experiencing the ''dead cat bounce'' at the moment....wouldn't be changing the range rover just yet

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

1. I never predicted that milk would go to 14cpl. That would have been foolish when intervention put a floor on milk at 20cpl. I did wish for the end of intervention though...
2. Oil remains soft.
3. After last years world record harvest this years harvest is on track to be the second biggest.
4. As I've already posted, if there is a hardening of milk price it will be modest and if it pushes my price over 30cpl, I'll turn on the taps...and all of Eu with me.
I'm currently getting 28cpl...

kevthegaff

mahoney_j wrote:

Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

All wer seeing is a movement in where milk will come from, perhaps nz aus will drop back, but theres plenty of nations queuing to fill the gap. Agree tho on cash flow v tight, if price looks like strengthening might go cap in hand to Boi and up supply lol #onelastbark

whelan2

This is 1.50 for 500ml , what would it cost glanbia to make it. Lads at eldest lads football think its the biz

OverRide

whelan2 wrote: »

This is 1.50 for 500ml , what would it cost glanbia to make it. Lads at eldest lads football think its the biz

Yeah I had some the other day to try,it's very popular in sports already
It's basically vanilla flavoured milk with protein added which they can source from their own nutritionals division
I'd say the only extra cost is the labelling

Farmer Ed

An older farmer was telling me that tradionally he always felt milk per gallon was roughly the same price per gallon as tractor diesel. If his theory was to be applied today, we have a bit to go yet.

Farmer Ed

OverRide wrote: »

Yeah I had some the other day to try,it's very popular in sports already
It's basically vanilla flavoured milk with protein added which they can source from their own nutritionals division
I'd say the only extra cost is the labelling

Great initiative but hard to see the logic in adding protein to milk only to have to add sugar and vanilla to flavor it. Kind of defeats the whole health benefits augment I would have thought. But if people want to buy it. Brilliant!

Keepgrowing

Dawggone wrote: »

1. I never predicted that milk would go to 14cpl. That would have been foolish when intervention put a floor on milk at 20cpl. I did wish for the end of intervention though...
2. Oil remains soft.
3. After last years world record harvest this years harvest is on track to be the second biggest.
4. As I've already posted, if there is a hardening of milk price it will be modest and if it pushes my price over 30cpl, I'll turn on the taps...and all of Eu with me.
I'm currently getting 28cpl...

Are you getting 28c/litre ATM?
Is 28 the nett price
Is 28 what you'll get for the year?

Dawggone

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Are you getting 28c/litre ATM?
Is 28 the nett price
Is 28 what you'll get for the year?

I'm getting 27.75 + vat @ 3.2pr and 3.8bf. Also will be getting circa 2cpl bonus for July, Aug and Sept.

I'll average about 29 for 2016.

Keepgrowing

Dawggone wrote: »

I'm getting 27.75 + vat @ 3.2pr and 3.8bf. Also will be getting circa 2cpl bonus for July, Aug and Sept.

I'll average about 29 for 2016.

Estimate we'll return 28-29c inc vat and solids nett of levies

mahoney_j

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Estimate we'll return 28-29c inc vat and solids nett of levies

Without fixed and liquid/winter schemes how much further back ?

kowtow

Farmer Ed wrote: »

An older farmer was telling me that tradionally he always felt milk per gallon was roughly the same price per gallon as tractor diesel. If his theory was to be applied today, we have a bit to go yet.

Not sure about the price but at the moment mine seems to have about the same solids

Keepgrowing

mahoney_j wrote: »

Without fixed and liquid/winter schemes how much further back ?

No fixed here unfortunately, our company doesn't do it. Liquid adds c1.5c

mf240

Farmer Ed wrote: »

An older farmer was telling me that tradionally he always felt milk per gallon was roughly the same price per gallon as tractor diesel. If his theory was to be applied today, we have a bit to go yet.

Cant see diesel getting that cheap!!

Buford T. Justice XIX

mf240 wrote: »

Cant see diesel getting that cheap!!

It would be good for lads topping/recreational use of diesel though:)

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

If milk hits to 30cpl or more (25cpl Irish price), I for one will be turning on the taps. Should amount to another 2k litres per cow or more...I have to say I'm looking forward to making a few quid to cover losses from tillage.

It's never been cheaper to rent money, the question is what's the most profitable way (if any) to turn it into milk and sell it. Same question faces every country, and supply as always will be dictated by their reactions.

milkprofit

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

how can we find out what is wrong with GIi the biggest the most invested the best ??? management why the worst price

whelan2

milkprofit wrote: »

how can we find out what is wrong with GIi the biggest the most invested the best ??? management why the worst price

Because they can do what they like ...............

Water John

Very simple, the business exists for the benefit of management and shareholders, not suppliers of raw materials.

kevthegaff

In fairness the couldn't run it any better. Healthy share price/profits for plc. Tied down supply longterm, even branching into banking. All with a nice salary/shares and pension s. Hats off I couldn't run it any better

Water John

And as with the culture of a number of processors, no matter what ownership structure, management would still ride you sideways.

atlantic mist

the one thing that strike me about this dip in milk prices is that unfortunately the irish milk production system is not as cheap as originally thought by many of our expert quangos and coops who are steering our industry

the amount of loans being offered this year, facilitated by our coops, is crazy never mind the GAP payment schemes, got a call from agri flex loans looks like they have a pot of money left take up hasnt been as big as expected.

we are being paid commodity prices, however our product mix includes much than pure commodities, our powder is going to infant manufacturing as well as third worlds, from our cheese making our whey is going to medical and sports nutrition but were only seening a milk price reflection of the lessor markets

we can sustain low milk prices better than alot of countries (we are about 5c lower than the rest of eu), still being paid slightly better than nz farmers by 1/2c

great to see international prices move a little but we are still putting stock into intervention and this needs to close first before things start to correct.

Stock from belview has ended up in intervention which is annoying considering new plant command the top selling spot over older plants, this is down to management not able to cope with markets or volumes.

Nestle in talks of commission infant plant in belview, we have largest infant formula manufactures setting up here and its not cause we produce cheap product its cause we have a quality product which is very difficult to match...we should be commanding a premium it makes no difference what the world prices are they cant get our exact product anywhere else so we should be working with these manufacturer to provide a balanced contracts for both parties...need to keep coops out of it and ensure return is seen by primary producer

visatorro

Never happen unfortunately. Iv said before paddy is a gob****e and doesn't seem to care what price he/she is getting. The amount of litres produced is all that matters. Glanbia know this.
Was told before that if nestle ever get into this country, forget about farming as a way of making a living

Farmer Ed

visatorro wrote: »

Never happen unfortunately. Iv said before paddy is a gob****e and doesn't seem to care what price he/she is getting. The amount of litres produced is all that matters. Glanbia know this.
Was told before that if nestle ever get into this country, forget about farming as a way of making a living

Did I read somewhere that Danone announced record profit?

tabby aspreme

I read somewhere that if Nestle set up an infant formula plant in Belview they may not source all there milk powder here in Ireland, but no doubt they could still say on the containers,"produced in Ireland" ...

whelan2

How much would this new infant formula plant cost us?

Timmaay

Kowtow explained before what is wrong with the processor system in Ireland fairly well, the co-ops should be fully decoupled from the processing side of things, a co-op should just be a collection of active dairyfarmers who team together to try and sell their milk at the best price, the processors would essentially bid for each co-ops milk. That in some sense sounds like what you have in France dwag? Where the processors are looking for milk off the farmers? What we currently have in Ireland are corporate monsters like Glanbia/dg, who have tied us all into 5year contracts, try force us to buy from theirown merchants, try to be our banks also, basically a one stop shop, but ultimately it's primarily interest is to make a profit for its shareholders.

Having said all that, talking to a self employed friend of mine the other night, we both concluded that chasing payment was the most soul destroying part of being self employed, and that's where I had a huge one up on him!