Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

rangler1

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

Hard to see a margin for the silage supplier, wonder what does he reckon as to how much fertiliser is going out the gate in 21 acres grass,
Will he look back in five years and say WTF happened my field

Dawggone

6270red wrote: »

Maybe take the friendly advice.....

I'm way too old and grumpy to take life advice from an anonymous poster on a public forum.


Press the button....you know you want to.

whelan2

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

kowtow

Farmer Ed wrote:

At what point does it become impossible for us to pay the guy fixing the baler? The trend is undeniable. The economics of it are simple.

The economics of it are that if there were less balers doing more bales whoever owned the baler would be able to afford to fix it.

Timmaay

rangler1 wrote: »

Hard to see a margin for the silage supplier, wonder what does he reckon as to how much fertiliser is going out the gate in 21 acres grass,
Will he look back in five years and say WTF happened my field

Agreed, which is why I'm always open to other potential silage suppliers ha. Looking at the tillage sector at the minute I'm fully open to more maize or whole crop also however, in general it comes down to a c/kgDM for me.

One reason why I'm changing my tune to expansion moving forward is a large part of the jigsaw is just slotting into place, that being the extra winter accommodation, going on the typical grand spec department costings I had assumed extra cubicles would be coming in at the likes of 1200+/cow (or say 800 after grand), however I'm just after pricing up a job, I should be able to get it for alot closer to 500/cow if I go non grant, or as low as 250/cow if I can get over the line with the 60% grant. It's only a 5year payback at that that sort of cost, which let's me remain nicely on the fence ha.

6270red

Dawggone wrote: »

I'm way too old and grumpy to take life advice from an anonymous poster on a public forum.


Press the button....you know you want to.

You've proved the point I was making in the first post. Thanks for that.

Brown Podzol

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

Ruxin

whelan2 wrote: »

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

Same as June way to soo to be thinking about price rise yet.

RightTurnClyde

Brown Podzol wrote: »

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

That's the ticket.

Timmaay

Brown Podzol wrote: »

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

10c/kgDM is the magic mark, as you said why would ya grow it yourself at that! The maize I buy is pricey at closer to 16c, however for how well it feeds I'd put it at 14c in comparion to grass silage. I've alot more grass to grow here per Ha to get to 3.9cows/ha and take off 600kgdm/cow in bales also!

Mooooo

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Timmaay wrote: »

I suppose I'm eternally on the fence and an optimist about my future prospects outside of farming ha. In terms of going back to "the job", I know for one I'll never take another 9 to 5 office job working for whatever souless company, but there are several other areas that I'll happily get my teeth stuck into. Then again I'm not tidy down with family etc which obviously makes a huge difference. On buying in fodder, I'd disagree, you build up loyalty over time with afew different fodder suppliers, I had a deal done for 21 acres 1st cut next year already, I always have the pit of silage carried forward also as insurance, if I'm going to get burnt it will be a small fraction of my winter supply. This obviously isn't for everyone, but it's certainly a very viable expansion option once you are some way off the 3.5cows/ha on the grazing block, and alot better than having to snap up land at 10k/acre.

3.9 cows/ha, projected 7,500 lts @ 7.8% solids delivered this year, 1.2 ton meal. Have 600 kg/dm per cow taken off as bales. 50% of grass silage bought in at 9/11 cent per kg dm, much cheaper than growing myself and at this stage have a choice of suppliers. Output up 50% and cow no's up 15% since quotas abolished. Thinking of going to 4.2 cows/ha next year as the grass grown figures over the last few years would support it. Extra land is just extra work. All crops are being sold at less than the cost of production. If supply dries up or gets too expensive I'll just have to take on an extra block of land which will increase cost and create extra work.

Nitrates could be the next thing the EU could come out with to hit that system, obviously one can only play by the rules in front of you but if N limits are cut back what way do u think you'll go?

Buford T. Justice XIX

whelan2 wrote: »

right............ any ideas for July milk price?

I'd say it will hold across everyone, noone will want to be the first to break ranks and rise price.

Plus the processors will have to get their margin back up again, those cushions will need filling again before the lad being strangled at the end of the chain gets a bit of oxygen again.

If we get a rise in GDT (2 GDTs before next cheque) again, they will have to rise prices though, I reckon

freedominacup

Mooooo wrote: »

Nitrates could be the next thing the EU could come out with to hit that system, obviously one can only play by the rules in front of you but if N limits are cut back what way do u think you'll go?

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

Waffletraktor

freedominacup wrote: »

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

You pay for baling and getting home, other guy pays for return haul and spreading, cutting string and crap out of spreader charged back to you.

kowtow

I'm making the most expensive bales in munster this year, on outside ground, should third cut this week but when all costs are included it would make your eyes water if you did it at scale.

Set me thinking about maximising quality from expensive silage rather than minimising costs....

From our perspective alternatives like whole crop wouldn't work (alfalfa might..) but I wonder where the limits lie in terms of price per kg dm... how much more per bale is the perfect bale worth over the average?

jaymla627

kowtow wrote: »

I'm making the most expensive bales in munster this year, on outside ground, should third cut this week but when all costs are included it would make your eyes water if you did it at scale.

Set me thinking about maximising quality from expensive silage rather than minimising costs....

From our perspective alternatives like whole crop wouldn't work (alfalfa might..) but I wonder where the limits lie in terms of price per kg dm... how much more per bale is the perfect bale worth over the average?

Top quality baled silage with figures of plus 80dmd over 16%pr and over 30%dm are capable of supporting 20 litres of milk and a good fusion bale would feed in our around 20 fresh calvers plus 7kgs of meal averaging 30 litres and will hold cow condition....
A average bale of dry cow feed say valued at 20 euro, I'd reckon the above like silage is worth 35-40 euro easily even with milk at 20 cent a litre, having a stack of bales like above for milkers in a bad spring really are priceless

mf240

freedominacup wrote: »

Muck out feed in. Simples if there is tillage in your area.

Or sell the single payment and work away.

jaymla627

mf240 wrote: »

Or sell the single payment and work away.

Simplest option, have been over 300kgs/ha the past 4 years here and heading past 450kgs/ha this year and have never had so much as visit from the department, when they have no financial penaltys to hit you with they really don't bother going after you once you have storage and aren't been flagged for pollution

Farmer Ed

kowtow wrote: »

The economics of it are that if there were less balers doing more bales whoever owned the baler would be able to afford to fix it.

I get your point but no matter who owns the baler the cow still has to pay to fix it. If the cow is making less in real terms at what point do you reach a point where is just no longer viable?

Keepgrowing

Timmaay wrote: »

Agreed, which is why I'm always open to other potential silage suppliers ha. Looking at the tillage sector at the minute I'm fully open to more maize or whole crop also however, in general it comes down to a c/kgDM for me.

One reason why I'm changing my tune to expansion moving forward is a large part of the jigsaw is just slotting into place, that being the extra winter accommodation, going on the typical grand spec department costings I had assumed extra cubicles would be coming in at the likes of 1200+/cow (or say 800 after grand), however I'm just after pricing up a job, I should be able to get it for alot closer to 500/cow if I go non grant, or as low as 250/cow if I can get over the line with the 60% grant. It's only a 5year payback at that that sort of cost, which let's me remain nicely on the fence ha.

How are you managing 500 per space? Is this with slurry storage?
Doing a job here expected in at 585 per cubicle with slurry storage. The storage will be 30% larger than cubicle numbers.

kowtow

Farmer Ed wrote: »

I get your point but no matter who owns the baler the cow still has to pay to fix it. If the cow is making less in real terms at what point do you reach a point where is just no longer viable?

probably a year or two back

As someone alluded to above, we are in a fix because we pay expensive labour in an expensive country for services, but we sell at the global (low) commodity price. We are un-competitive (in the pure sense) in terms of scale and in terms of labour cost, the baler repair above being an example of both. We have small farms, very high costs for everything from land to groceries, and an awful lot more machinery per acre (as a result of small farms) than is economically efficient.

Or, more crudely, as the editor of an African daily newspaper once said to me "our problem is, we are a country which wants to buy Mercedes, but we can only export T shirts to pay for it"

visatorro

kowtow wrote: »

probably a year or two back

As someone alluded to above, we are in a fix because we pay expensive labour in an expensive country for services, but we sell at the global (low) commodity price. We are un-competitive (in the pure sense) in terms of scale and in terms of labour cost, the baler repair above being an example of both. We have small farms, very high costs for everything from land to groceries, and an awful lot more machinery per acre (as a result of small farms) than is economically efficient.

Or, more crudely, as the editor of an African daily newspaper once said to me "our problem is, we are a country which wants to buy Mercedes, but we can only export T shirts to pay for it"

Africans export gold, diamonds, oil and loads of mined resources. The money just doesn't go to Africans.

Farmer Ed

visatorro wrote: »

Africans export gold, diamonds, oil and loads of mined resources. The money just doesn't go to Africans.

Judging by some of the profit figures released by some of the dairy based business the Irish dairy farmer has a lot in common with the Africans

Buford T. Justice XIX

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Judging by some of the profit figures released by some of the dairy based business the Irish dairy farmer has a lot in common with the Africans

Yeah, too far away from the 'value added' and unable to claw back even some of that section.

freedominacup

mf240 wrote: »

Or sell the single payment and work away.

The oulboy only brought it up again last week. We'll be thinking seriously about it soon. If we do go I'd be thinking of keeping a couple of K worth just to annoy the dept.

kowtow

visatorro wrote: »

Africans export gold, diamonds, oil and loads of mined resources. The money just doesn't go to Africans.

Not these particular Africans, they only export T Shirts and Sugar, although they have been broadening out a bit in recent years.

Timmaay

Keepgrowing wrote: »

How are you managing 500 per space? Is this with slurry storage?
Doing a job here expected in at 585 per cubicle with slurry storage. The storage will be 30% larger than cubicle numbers.

Sorry 500ish ha. I'm lucky that there is zero rock here, the dig will be easy, got homes for the soil removed also. The likes of a 15ft6 wide tank, 9ft deep and 100ish ft long definitely looking the most economical per m3 of slurry. Croom concrete coming in by far the cheapest on slatts. Huge variation in shed prices also, 6e per square ft is the standard grant spec shed price, however I can get the likes of an 80x40ft portal kit shed for 2.90/ft2, I've been talking to the crowd who supply that shed, they are hoping to become grant approved in the next few months. No automatic scrapers (will be for drycows). I'll admit straight out I'll be keeping it all as basic as possible, however it will be only really for dry cows for 2months of the year, my original plan was to put the tank up outside of an existing shed/closed silage pit, however I needed to allow the best part of 3ft to freeboard and rainfall (Wicklow for some silly reason is on paper much higher than wexford, Dublin, louth etc??), so it well makes sense to leave the existing sheds straw bedded and start afresh with a roof over the tank.

Brown Podzol

Mooooo wrote: »

Nitrates could be the next thing the EU could come out with to hit that system, obviously one can only play by the rules in front of you but if N limits are cut back what way do u think you'll go?

Contract rearing and or export slurry.

kevthegaff

Brown Podzol wrote:

Contract rearing and or export slurry.

Maybe if subsidies come in, anaerobic digesters for the large units

Brown Podzol

kevthegaff wrote: »

Maybe if subsidies come in, anaerobic digesters for the large units

A 10,000 lt cow would get me down to 187 from 250 whilst maintaining output.

Farmer Ed

Futures markets points to another major rise in Global Dairy Trade @agrilandIreland http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/futures-markets-pointing-to-another-major-rise-in-global-dairy-trade/

kevthegaff

Farmer Ed wrote:

Futures markets points to another major rise in Global Dairy Trade @agrilandIreland

Have a feeling this could be a double dip, hope I'm wrong..

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

Have a feeling this could be a double dip, hope I'm wrong..

How's that Kev ??,markets and futures have shown sustained strength over last 2 months and it's gathering pace .lots of stock culled down under ,production crashing in the uk and dropping across Europe .we won't see a price rise for a few months but I'd be confident of a decent rebound starting before year end and continuing next spring .

Mooooo

It's internal consumption keeping the US at bay, they are still up in production afaik? With grain down and oil I'd still be wary, maybe not a double dip but a slow rise esp with intervention as well to clear

Keepgrowing

kevthegaff wrote: »

Have a feeling this could be a double dip, hope I'm wrong..

Why?

Timmaay

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Why?

Stockpiles of grain in the USA also, the Chinese not really buying much either. 2bh I've given up worrying about the world market by now, it's all still going to be race to the bottom no matter what, but I'm happy enough I've my house in order, once I can remain relatively lowly borrowed I should have a resilient enough system.

Mooooo

Timmaay wrote: »

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Why?

Stockpiles of grain in the USA also, the Chinese not really buying much either. 2bh I've given up worrying about the world market by now, it's all still going to be race to the bottom no matter what, but I'm happy enough I've my house in order, once I can remain relatively lowly borrowed I should have a resilient enough system.

But how resilient is a system longterm if it can't support borrowings??

OverRide

Timmaay wrote: »

but I'm happy enough I've my house in order, once I can remain relatively lowly borrowed I should have a resilient enough system.

This
With over drafts from AIB sub 7% and stocking loans less than 5%(way less in some products),A bank will give you 12 months of variable extra cash flow (basically giving you forward payment on cattle or milk sold) for 40 to 70 euros per 1000 or thereabouts which is cheap
So now for arrangements for the next year,plan,budget and talk to your bank
Because do you know,this *is* the bottom,look forward to the slow rise

Timmaay

Mooooo wrote: »

But how resilient is a system longterm if it can't support borrowings??

Depends on the borrowings, I would argue no system based on paying back land at 10k/acre is resilient ha. I guess I'm being selfish also, in my scenario where I got handed 110acres I can remain relatively debt free, however it's my choice moving forward do I want to become indebt to expand, I certainly don't to anything above the likes of 1k/cow. It's a simple enough sum after that for me, if cashflow can support expansion then I will expand, if it doesn't then I won't, and if sh1t hits the fan and milk drops to like 17c/l then I'll sell stock. At least I'll never be at the point that I'll be so heavily borrowed that I've no choice but to carry on forward.

Farmer Ed

There has been a lot of talk on here about big vs small or high input vs low input. IMO the most vulnerable are the ones with to much borrowings. huge pressure if payments are difficult to meet. Very hard to go broke if you don't owe anyone money. It's certainly one lesson I'm firmly taking from this year anyway. Maybe it's just me getting old?

Buford T. Justice XIX

kevthegaff wrote: »

Have a feeling this could be a double dip, hope I'm wrong..

Some figures from a meeting last night.

Production slowing, we are up 4.5% ytd but slowing. UK down 7.8% in May. France up 3.2 Germany 2.2 Dutch up 8.3 and Poland up also.

Cull cows up everywhere! NZ production down 3%. USA up 2% but all being sold internally so far.

321k tonnes in intervention, 63k tonnes of that is French(YOU GO, DAWG!!!):D. 6500t and 6200t offered to intervention in the last 2 rounds.

Irish price was 25.4c in May before processing costs, it's now 29c before processing (c.5c). There's big rises in spot prices since April.

Oil price low is bad for us. The oil producers are buying but in small quantities and more often. Price rising will force others to start forward buying to ensure supplies at a reasonable price.

The fundamentals look very, very good atm.

boggerman1

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Futures markets points to another major rise in Global Dairy Trade @agrilandIreland http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/futures-markets-pointing-to-another-major-rise-in-global-dairy-trade/

Ya there was an auction in early feb this yr that was up over 10% and it was looking back now completely rogue.its going to take time for the surplus stocks in intervention are flushed tru the system.

Buford T. Justice XIX

From last night again. There is a large merchant credit bill outstanding, some 30k/farmer and that's outside of other money owed. The bill will come down but won't be cleared by all.

Secure your money needed for next spring now as it will get scarce very quickly!

Some stuff on the milk reduction scheme. Closing date 19th Sept and the quantity reduced has to be decided for that and has to be processed and in Europe on the 26th!! Now that's going to take manpower from everywhere else to meet that deadline so any BPS problems will be parked for that week at least.

There are discussions about a topup to the 11m euro and the sum will be 14c/l, presumably with a reduction in that for any excess liters. The sting in the tail is it will be paid in March if the 3 month reduction is Oct to Dec and April if the 3 month reduction is Nov to Feb. There will be a big hit to cash flow for any farmer qualifying for this.

jaymla627

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

From last night again. There is a large merchant credit bill outstanding, some 30k/farmer and that's outside of other money owed. The bill will come down but won't be cleared by all.

Secure your money needed for next spring now as it will get scarce very quickly!

Some stuff on the milk reduction scheme. Closing date 19th Sept and the quantity reduced has to be decided for that and has to be processed and in Europe on the 26th!! Now that's going to take manpower from everywhere else to meet that deadline so any BPS problems will be parked for that week at least.

There are discussions about a topup to the 11m euro and the sum will be 14c/l, presumably with a reduction in that for any excess liters. The sting in the tail is it will be paid in March if the 3 month reduction is Oct to Dec and April if the 3 month reduction is Nov to Feb. There will be a big hit to cash flow for any farmer qualifying for this.

Is the 30k been averaged across the entire supply base scary figure if true some guys must have collasel bills built - up

Farmer Ed

Is the figure for merchant credit just for Kerry or a national figure? I'd hate to be a agri sales man at the moment.

Buford T. Justice XIX

jaymla627 wrote: »

Is the 30k been averaged across the entire supply base scary figure if true some guys must have collasel bills built - up

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Is the figure for merchant credit just for Kerry or a national figure? I'd hate to be a agri sales man at the moment.

That's a national figure, iirc.

There is going to be a lot of pressure on in the next 12 months both on suppliers and merchants.

Like I said, secure your finance now. I reckon there will be good deals for payment on the spot.

Never waste a good crisis:o

whelan2

Farmer Ed wrote: »

There has been a lot of talk on here about big vs small or high input vs low input. IMO the most vulnerable are the ones with to much borrowings. huge pressure if payments are difficult to meet. Very hard to go broke if you don't owe anyone money. It's certainly one lesson I'm firmly taking from this year anyway. Maybe it's just me getting old?

Stan said last year your repayments will be the same if its a good year or bad year . So payments will be met but other things would suffer?

Timmaay

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

There are discussions about a topup to the 11m euro and the sum will be 14c/l, presumably with a reduction in that for any excess liters. The sting in the tail is it will be paid in March if the 3 month reduction is Oct to Dec and April if the 3 month reduction is Nov to Feb. There will be a big hit to cash flow for any farmer qualifying for this.

Will the individual farmer have the choice as to Oct to Dec, or Nov to Feb? If it's Nov to Feb it will hugely suit me as I've ditched all the autumn calvers, and pushed out calving afew days in Feb.

Keepgrowing

Farmer Ed wrote: »

There has been a lot of talk on here about big vs small or high input vs low input. IMO the most vulnerable are the ones with to much borrowings. huge pressure if payments are difficult to meet. Very hard to go broke if you don't owe anyone money. It's certainly one lesson I'm firmly taking from this year anyway. Maybe it's just me getting old?

The level of debt isn't the issue, it's the term that's generally where guys fall down. Another weakness is not enough debt ie. capex out of cashflow

yewtree

Keepgrowing wrote: »

The level of debt isn't the issue, it's the term that's generally where guys fall down. Another weakness is not enough debt ie. capex out of cashflow

This is were some lads under real pressure. Some lads were too confident when taking on debt and agreed to terms that were over too short a time frame. The issue is the banks will now impose more severe terms if loans have to be refinance.