Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

Can't see that find being touched till March, well I hope not as half used. Pity we didn't manage to get more into fund.

Does it not have to be used up by year end?
Its based on 2013 production so even lads dried off are entitled to it (back) .
What differ now or later .
Its a cynical accounting excrcise anyway . Leading the price drop as usual.

frazzledhome

stretch film wrote: »

Does it not have to be used up by year end?
Its based on 2013 production so even lads dried off are entitled to it (back) .
What differ now or later .
Its a cynical accounting excrcise anyway . Leading the price drop as usual.

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

stretch film

frazzledhome wrote: »

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

Ahh hear. Explain away.

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

Not yet but 2c drop muted

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

Finally a bit of positivity,what's he basing it on dwag

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

Finally a bit of positivity,what's he basing it on dwag

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year. I'm not saying that he's Warren Buffet but they have very close links with China after some heavy Chinese investment here.

My Coop seem to be quite bullish about price, but then again they would be when they are 17.4% under quota ....

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year. I'm not saying that he's Warren Buffet but they have very close links with China after some heavy Chinese investment here.

My Coop seem to be quite bullish about price, but then again they would be when they are 17.4% under quota ....

I was talking to 1 guy in particular recently and he is of the same opinion as your guy about China.he reckons by mid summer next year we should be seeing good signs of market recovery.

mf240

freedominacup wrote: »

What triggers money being put into this fund?

Suppliers leaving for the north seemed to trigger it. The magically found the price of bellview down the back of a couch at the same time.

Its five millinion, the 2 cent in aug will have made a fair hole in it.

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

With your fixed position there's no point explaining further.

Explain it to the rest of the class?

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

China, funny enough.
He reckons that the Chinese have a stockpile that needs to be washed out and that price should harden by Q2 next year.

Have heard a similar view from further afield, I don't think China will stand back much longer than the middle of next year.

Whether that is enough to put a floor in the price? Hopefully.

I gather there is a fair amount being diverted to powder outside Ireland.

Greengrass1

And russia. The people there will only go with basics forvso long before they get fed up.
I would have thought china would start buying soon again. Was last winter they boughy all the stock

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

And russia. The people there will only go with basics forvso long before they get fed up.
I would have thought china would start buying soon again. Was last winter they boughy all the stock

The thing about Russia or more importantly Putin is he is dosnt give 2 hoots about his own people,ruthless fooker.

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

The thing about Russia or more importantly Putin is he is dosnt give 2 hoots about his own people,ruthless fooker.

Id ask sister about what she makes of the milk situation and russia only I dont want another hour long debate on it

freedominacup

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Id ask sister about what she makes of the milk situation and russia only I dont want another hour long debate on it

I have one of them as well.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

What is base price from Glanbia ? Not inc vat.

Had a little (pre) meeting with Coop today and they are bullish enough for next spring.....

31.43 ex vat was Aug price at 3.6 and 3.3

Does your coop do individual deals with suppliers?

frazzledhome

My view is that we're in for a rough ride till May/June. Any one in Cat 1 > 70k litres and over quota are being deducted as of now. <70k are being allowed 25k extra before deduction. I'd say that SL is a bigger worry in these situations. A fine and low price in Spring will do a lot of harm. Be careful and do your budgets. That said I find the figures country wide hard to accept, showing country so far over, a bit of wolf crying, perhaps with an end goal in sight?

This has to be the perfect 18 mts of milk production world wife. There's usually some weather event in some corner that's holding back milk supply, not do at the moment. The only area where milk price is holding is the US and this coupled with low grain price will only drive production. All of Northern EU and NZ/Aus have had a perfect milk season.

There's a view that China over imported and may be in fact exporting stockpiled product. This view could have credence as Russia's alliances seem to be leaning that way.

The growth figure of 2% in demand still stands and Chinas shifting of product will bring balance, when nobody can say. The drop in price about to hit US will also have a huge effect. They came back into production a lot slower than expected as they probably over culled when grain was high.

I'd say never take any high or low price as your benchmark rather take a three year average as your price and budget based on that.

Then again I could be as wrong as phuck

mahoney_j

frazzledhome wrote: »

My view is that we're in for a rough ride till May/June. Any one in Cat 1 > 70k litres and over quota are being deducted as of now. <70k are being allowed 25k extra before deduction. I'd say that SL is a bigger worry in these situations. A fine and low price in Spring will do a lot of harm. Be careful and do your budgets. That said I find the figures country wide hard to accept, showing country so far over, a bit of wolf crying, perhaps with an end goal in sight?

This has to be the perfect 18 mts of milk production world wife. There's usually some weather event in some corner that's holding back milk supply, not do at the moment. The only area where milk price is holding is the US and this coupled with low grain price will only drive production. All of Northern EU and NZ/Aus have had a perfect milk season.

There's a view that China over imported and may be in fact exporting stockpiled product. This view could have credence as Russia's alliances seem to be leaning that way.

The growth figure of 2% in demand still stands and Chinas shifting of product will bring balance, when nobody can say. The drop in price about to hit US will also have a huge effect. They came back into production a lot slower than expected as they probably over culled when grain was high.

I'd say never take any high or low price as your benchmark rather take a three year average as your price and budget based on that.

Then again I could be as wrong as phuck

Excelent post ,As regards irelands levy position,Id say quoted figures arent far off the mark.As you said were after having a near perfect 18 months for grass based milk production which suits us as well as very high prices.From talking to lads locally and milk manager in coop a lot seem to be living in some hope that there will be some divine intervention from somewhere to reduce levy.It was well worth a punt last year but not in any way this year with decreasing prices and a massive surge in production month on month since april.a sub 30 milk price next spring on top of levy will make for a very depressing bunch of dairy farmers.I know weve known quotas were going on 31 march 2015 for a long time but how in the hell nothing was ever done to soften the blow this year is beyond me.we are expected to calve cows and keep one foot on the brake next spring untill 23.59 on 31 march and 2 minutes later just let it off,crazy ****e.I do have a sneaky feeling though that something will happen on the butterfat co efficent but nothing will be announced till april 15

frazzledhome

mahoney_j wrote: »

Excelent post ,As regards irelands levy position,Id say quoted figures arent far off the mark.As you said were after having a near perfect 18 months for grass based milk production which suits us as well as very high prices.From talking to lads locally and milk manager in coop a lot seem to be living in some hope that there will be some divine intervention from somewhere to reduce levy.It was well worth a punt last year but not in any way this year with decreasing prices and a massive surge in production month on month since april.a sub 30 milk price next spring on top of levy will make for a very depressing bunch of dairy farmers.I know weve known quotas were going on 31 march 2015 for a long time but how in the hell nothing was ever done to soften the blow this year is beyond me.we are expected to calve cows and keep one foot on the brake next spring untill 23.59 on 31 march and 2 minutes later just let it off,crazy ****e.I do have a sneaky feeling though that something will happen on the butterfat co efficent but nothing will be announced till april 15

If any things going to be done it'll be a processors level locally. No matter what's done the fine WILL be paid and the farmer will foot bill. I may be put out over a period but I'd be making no decisions based on that hope.

I'm not too sure if a soft landing could've been achieved at any stage but in any event the arrogance of our previous government put paid to any friendships we may have had in Europe. Blowing about being the most wealthy in Europe and ministers displaying arrogance befitting Russian Oligarchs all the borrowing like the Argentinian government from the French and Germans. They sat back laughed and flung the money knowing that it would end in tears

So I'd say soft landing out of the question

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

31.43 ex vat was Aug price at 3.6 and 3.3

Does your coop do individual deals with suppliers?

Got 42.4cpl in August here but was a rob Peter to pay Paul exercise. They give a bonus of 2cpl for August as the farmers like to take that month off.

Individual deals - good question.
I'm talking to a couple of Coop's ATM as I'm taking on another few acres 80 miles away and there is a dairy yard on it that has been unproductive for three years.
Things are being hinted...but it's early stages yet. Straight answer is I don't know.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Got 42.4cpl in August here but was a rob Peter to pay Paul exercise. They give a bonus of 2cpl for August as the farmers like to take that month off.

Individual deals - good question.
I'm talking to a couple of Coop's ATM as I'm taking on another few acres 80 miles away and there is a dairy yard on it that has been unproductive for three years.
Things are being hinted...but it's early stages yet. Straight answer is I don't know.

42.4 base price? A full 10c more than us

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

42.4 base price? A full 10c more than us

Not quite. 40.4cpl plus the 2cpl August bonus.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Not quite. 40.4cpl plus the 2cpl August bonus.

Did you add anything with solids

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

Did you add anything with solids

Not much :)
White water supplier I'm afraid.

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

Not quite. 40.4cpl plus the 2cpl August bonus.

Do you see Aug bonus as mechanism to keep price down or as bonus paid from co-op:)

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

Do you see Aug bonus as mechanism to keep price down or as bonus paid from co-op:)

.

mf240

frazzledhome wrote: »

Do you see Aug bonus as mechanism to keep price down or as bonus paid from co-op:)

Do you mean did they cut the base by 2 cent at the same time as giving a 2cent bonus.

Come on now frazzled you cant just dismiss everyone as a cynic for pointing out the blatantly obvious.

frazzledhome

mf240 wrote: »

Do you mean did they cut the base by 2 cent at the same time as giving a 2cent bonus.

Come on now frazzled you cant just dismiss everyone as a cynic for pointing out the blatantly obvious.

That statement is wrong, simple! The first part:)
When was find established? That's the question? I for 1 am glad it'd there and that there's 2.5 million left in it. It will be needed

keep going

just something to keep in mind,i heard yesterday that the average milk price over the last seven years is 31 cent a litre so while 39 cent was nice while it lasted the truth is the market value of milk is lower and i suggest that somewhere in the region of 31 going foward will still be the average.that said its not the price is important as much as the margin and unfortunatly i suspect there has been a steady contraction with the last ten years

Timmaay

keep going wrote: »

just something to keep in mind,i heard yesterday that the average milk price over the last seven years is 31 cent a litre so while 39 cent was nice while it lasted the truth is the market value of milk is lower and i suggest that somewhere in the region of 31 going foward will still be the average.that said its not the price is important as much as the margin and unfortunatly i suspect there has been a steady contraction with the last ten years

Hmmmmm but costs have rocketed in them 7yrs.

Greengrass1

30.5c/l for September

stanflt

Greengrass1 wrote: »

30.5c/l for September

I didn't get any text

whelan2

stanflt wrote: »

I didn't get any text

i got one saying 35cpl for september

stanflt

whelan2 wrote: »

i got one saying 35cpl for september

I do enjoy a good nights sleep

RobertKK

Got the text from Glanbia.

I suspect the top people at Glanbia are not taking a similar wage reduction to reflect the market, given they have not got a market for the milk to keep the price up.

mf240

4 cent cut. Thats nasty.

Down from 33 plus 2 to 30.05 plus .5


O well best keep plugging away.

whelan2

How low will it go?

RobertKK

whelan2 wrote: »

How low will it go?

Who knows, they better find markets for when quotas go.

Glanbia better pass the proposed 0.5cpl on all 2014 milk, to keep the people who do the hardest work a bit happier...

mf240

whelan2 wrote: »

How low will it go?

20 cent.

Deepsouthwest

mf240 wrote: »

4 cent cut. Thats nasty.

Down from 33 plus 2 to 30.05 plus .5


O well best keep plugging away.

That's a huge cut in one month. I bet u'll never see it rise 4 cent in one month

slippy wicket

GII reduced Sept manuf milk price by 2.5cpl. Co-op proposing to pay a 0.5cpl bonus on 2014 milk supplies (Man & Liq) to Co-op members to offset market decline.

wats the craic

glanbia showing their true colours alrite . best product mix in the country yet they are worst payers in the country . i am glad i got away when i did .. sorry for the good farmers who supply them

frazzledhome

RobertKK wrote: »

Who knows, they better find markets for when quotas go.

Glanbia better pass the proposed 0.5cpl on all 2014 milk, to keep the people who do the hardest work a bit happier...

The .05c payout on 2014 supply is up to co-op members to decide. There'll need to be a SGM to approve payment from co-op funds

frazzledhome

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

That's a huge cut in one month. I bet u'll never see it rise 4 cent in one month

2.5c drop

jaymla627

slippy wicket wrote: »

GII reduced Sept manuf milk price by 2.5cpl. Co-op proposing to pay a 0.5cpl bonus on 2014 milk supplies (Man & Liq) to Co-op members to offset market decline.

Wonder will it be for all suppliers our only those who have signed the contract:rolleyes:

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

How low will it go?

That's it. Unless there's a catastrophe in the market in the last quarter. As far as can be projected

frazzledhome

jaymla627 wrote: »

Wonder will it be for all suppliers our only those who have signed the contract:rolleyes:

Only contracted shareholders

wats the craic

all shareholders should get it end of .

frazzledhome

wats the craic wrote: »

all shareholders should get it end of .

Dry shareholders?

wats the craic

all milk suppilers be it signed a contract or not signed one

frazzledhome

wats the craic wrote: »

all milk suppilers be it signed a contract or not signed one

All suppliers regardless of share holder or not?