Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

frazzledhome

Milked out wrote: »

Were u planning on feeding extra meal to carry those extra cows or take extra land if u don't mind me asking? Just wondering as if you have the land to increase cows without increasing meal / supplementation surely it would make sense to increase numbers unless caught for winter feed?

No hitting 16 tonne grass this year so could carry but would have to import too much meal.

Cows will be silly money this spring and price will no low so am thinking cash in cows keep all our heifers and cut her to the bone for the year. Look my heart is telling me your right but the books say otherwise. I'll make a call in Jan when I see prices of stock and milk. If I can see average milk price over 35 for next year I'll milk if not and cows are dear I'll cut back.

We will still have enough heifers to grow in 2016. Thinking out loud, a lot going one way maybe I should go the other way:) talk of 2015 I can't see what's wrong with 16,17 or 18

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

No hitting 16 tonne grass this year so could carry but would have to import too much meal.

Cows will be silly money this spring and price will no low so am thinking cash in cows keep all our heifers and cut her to the bone for the year. Look my heart is telling me your right but the books say otherwise. I'll make a call in Jan when I see prices of stock and milk. If I can see average milk price over 35 for next year I'll milk if not and cows are dear I'll cut back.

We will still have enough heifers to grow in 2016. Thinking out loud, a lot going one way maybe I should go the other way:) talk of 2015 I can't see what's wrong with 16,17 or 18

Father talking to dg member today he thinks its going to end badly for alot of lads. Alot just see the money but every one of us here knows the troubles we have had with our herds and how hard It was to grow imagine what it will be like for a novice.
I hope it works out for all but undoubtedly wont

whelan2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Father talking to dg member today he thinks its going to end badly for alot of lads. Alot just see the money but every one of us here knows the troubles we have had with our herds and how hard It was to grow imagine what it will be like for a novice.
I hope it works out for all but undoubtedly wont

I just worry about whats inside my own gate, feck the rest of them

rangler1

whelan2 wrote: »

I just worry about whats inside my own gate, feck the rest of them

The longer I'm on here, the more I see you're right, looking forward here to getting away from the complaining and more time for my own sheep enterprise

stop thelights

whelan2 wrote: »

I just worry about whats inside my own gate, feck the rest of them

Never a truer word spoken. I don't think stock will make crazy money next jan,feb, march. Quota restrictions will see that there'll be no demand till April at least. Calves will be big money though. Reckon farmers will hold them to drink milk!

One big thing though about feeding ration is that prices are falling big time and so is diesel

whelan2

jaymla627 wrote: »

Have a meeting next week with another supplier, all going well notice to leave will be going in before the month is out

did you sign the Glanbia contract?

jaymla627

whelan2 wrote: »

did you sign the Glanbia contract?

Nope thankfully, think I only have to give 6 months notice then I'm free to leave

Greengrass1

Milk man telling md this mor two winter milk lads he collects dried off last week doesn't know what they did with cows.
Any way 39.25c
4.06 P
4.71 f
Fat alot lower here thus yr compared to others. Other yrs it would be touching 5.2 now.
No carry overs possibly doing it?

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Milk man telling md this mor two winter milk lads he collects dried off last week doesn't know what they did with cows.
Any way 39.25c
4.06 P
4.71 f
Fat alot lower here thus yr compared to others. Other yrs it would be touching 5.2 now.
No carry overs possibly doing it?

Nearly 9 cent over glanbis base and your dissapointed with those solids considering youve some fresh calvers in that bunch.Thats serious performance in my book.You must be a hard man to please!!

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Nearly 9 cent over glanbis base and your dissapointed with those solids considering youve some fresh calvers in that bunch.Thats serious performance in my book.You must be a hard man to please!!

Noy displeased one bit bit if fat was a bit higher ........:D

Deepsouthwest

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Noy displeased one bit bit if fat was a bit higher ........:D

I think those solids are perfect, higher fat will only cost u more litres with the bf reference

Greengrass1

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

I think those solids are perfect, higher fat will only cost u more litres with the bf reference

True. Only reason we had the high fat other yrs was because of carry overs. We were only codding ourselves

Deepsouthwest

frazzledhome wrote: »

No hitting 16 tonne grass this year so could carry but would have to import too much meal.

Cows will be silly money this spring and price will no low so am thinking cash in cows keep all our heifers and cut her to the bone for the year. Look my heart is telling me your right but the books say otherwise. I'll make a call in Jan when I see prices of stock and milk. If I can see average milk price over 35 for next year I'll milk if not and cows are dear I'll cut back.

We will still have enough heifers to grow in 2016. Thinking out loud, a lot going one way maybe I should go the other way:) talk of 2015 I can't see what's wrong with 16,17 or 18

I was in a similar situation with expanding nxt yr, but sold 25(40%) of my incalf heifers a mnth back. Not sure if nxt yr is the yr the be pushing the stocking rate with expected milk price. Will still increase cows by just over 10%, and plenty heifers on the ground for 2016. As regards feeding more concentrates on grass nxt yr, that can only be done at the shoulders. Plan to get SR right, probably make less surplus bales in the summer, and then fill the gap early and late with more meal. Finding the right balance will be key

jaymla627

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

I was in a similar situation with expanding nxt yr, but sold 25(40%) of my incalf heifers a mnth back. Not sure if nxt yr is the yr the be pushing the stocking rate with expected milk price. Will still increase cows by just over 10%, and plenty heifers on the ground for 2016. As regards feeding more concentrates on grass nxt yr, that can only be done at the shoulders. Plan to get SR right, probably make less surplus bales in the summer, and then fill the gap early and late with more meal. Finding the right balance will be key

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

Deepsouthwest

jaymla627 wrote: »

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

And that's what most people will do. But then ur going to have to carry a higher stocking rate to eat the grass that this meal replaces when grass takes off. Then in the event of meal price rising, and still poor milk price, u will have to continue feeding the meal as ur now too overstocked to cut it out. Now ur in the dangerous game of chasing production, and keeping v little of the money ur handling for urself. Like I said earlier its about getting the balance right.

mahoney_j

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

And that's what most people will do. But then ur going to have to carry a higher stocking rate to eat the grass that this meal replaces when grass takes off. Then in the event of meal price rising, and still poor milk price, u will have to continue feeding the meal as ur now too overstocked to cut it out. Now ur in the dangerous game of chasing production, and keeping v little of the money ur handling for urself. Like I said earlier its about getting the balance right.

I get where ur coming from but what I'd do there is off load cows be it milkers or culls or both if milk price stays low and concentrate prices rise.your last part about getting balance right is very relevant.

Deepsouthwest

mahoney_j wrote: »

I get where ur coming from but what I'd do there is off load cows be it milkers or culls or both if milk price stays low and concentrate prices rise.your last part about getting balance right is very relevant.

Yeah, that's the obvious solution, but if ur selling cows for that reason then there will probably be plenty more guys doing the v same, therefore deflating the price of cows. It's just something we'll have to be wary of. Unfortunately with the quota shackles thrown off most of us won't be able to help chasing production, myself included! And to add to that, only Teagasc will advise us against this scenario, because everyone and I mean everyone else(millers, vets, coops, ai, contractors, builders, machinery sales etc) will be making money out of this increased production, except possibly the farmer.

awaywithyou

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Yeah, that's the obvious solution, but if ur selling cows for that reason then there will probably be plenty more guys doing the v same, therefore deflating the price of cows. It's just something we'll to be wary of. Unfortunately with the quota shackles thrown off most of us won't be able to help chasing production, myself included! And to add to that, only Teagasc will advise us against this scenario, because everyone and I mean everyone else(millers, vets, coops, ai, contractors, builders, machinery sales etc) will be making money out this increased production, except possibly the farmer.

last four words of your quote are spot on.... i think michael noonan,s agri-taxation plans are to get every farmer to break his backside working land. not to benefit the farmer but the economy of the country... like you said money in everyone else's pocket except the lad making it happen..... hopefully that wont happen.....

Brown Podzol

Posted this last Dec.


No one cares if you are profitable or not, upstream or downstream of your business as long as you are able to pay the bills and keep producing. By profitable I mean paying down debt, securing a pension,banking cash, building wealth. A return on risk and hard work. We shouldn't put ourselves in a place where the business is vulnerable to a year or two of low milk price and in good times be able to put a bit of fat into the business. High debt coupled with high costs will kill you. As Warren Buffet said " when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming in the nude".

mf240

Youd want to be very unlucky for meal to be very dear the same year as milk is very low.

In 09 rolled barley was 130 per ton.

Agree about the balance though. Its very easy to get carried away when everything is going well.

5live

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Posted this last Dec.


No one cares if you are profitable or not, upstream or downstream of your business as long as you are able to pay the bills and keep producing. By profitable I mean paying down debt, securing a pension,banking cash, building wealth. A return on risk and hard work. We shouldn't put ourselves in a place where the business is vulnerable to a year or two of low milk price and in good times be able to put a bit of fat into the business. High debt coupled with high costs will kill you. As Warren Buffet said " when the tide goes out we will see who is swimming in the nude".

Good post.

As Warren Buffet would say, i could do with a bigger mankini but 2-3 years will sort that problem out.

Timmaay

awaywithyou wrote: »

last four words of your quote are spot on.... i think michael noonan,s agri-taxation plans are to get every farmer to break his backside working land. not to benefit the farmer but the economy of the country... like you said money in everyone else's pocket except the lad making it happen..... hopefully that wont happen.....

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

whelan2

Timmaay wrote: »

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

what would your dad think of that?

mf240

whelan2 wrote: »

what would your dad think of that?

" your after making a show of me and a show of mammy!! What will the neighbours say ya little fecker!!!"

Timmaay

whelan2 wrote: »

what would your dad think of that?

He might be glade to see the back of me

darragh_haven

Timmaay wrote: »

I'll admit straight out leasing out the farm here long term and getting up to 40k/yr tax free (ie let some other farmer break his backside!), and go back to my previous career would be a very viable option for me moving forward!

With the 40 year old farmer rule removed, it is by far and away the best financial option here, even 25 grand and tax free is a profit of 50 grand. And id be able to do what I want every weekend... even if it is other work.

trixi2011

jaymla627 wrote: »

Can understand not feeding meal in a scenario where milk is low and meal price is high, but next year with barley and soya hulls looking like their going to be sub 170 a ton why wouldn't you feed cows when the 1st of April comes around, even if milk say hits 25 cent a litre, a feed conversion rate of 1 to 1 your still 8 cent a litre better of on your extra litres and have happier cows:D

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

jaymla627

trixi2011 wrote: »

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

Tried to get away with less meal this year during early summer and was just going with a kilo day, when the mini-drought hit and looked like grass was getting tight upped meal to 3 kg a day and yield went from 19 to 22.5 and stayed up so yes I think you do.....another point lost on lads is the fact that heading into autumn grass quality is dropping/along with dm going in with meal on the shoulders is going to stop you getting a big drop in yield and keep production a lot more consistent

mahoney_j

trixi2011 wrote: »

Do you really get a 1 to 1 conversion rate with meal in grass based cows? In my opinion the only cow you will get this sort of a conversion rate is a big ho which is unable to eat enough grass to live up to her genetic potential.

Nope pile of crap,lots of us doing it with them.breed them correctly,high ebi 30 plus kg solids 150 250 kg milk .7500 to 8 k Ltrs is very achievable in the right hands with good grass management and 1 to 1.2 tonne meal.conversion rate of 1.2 to 1.5 or more is achievable.problem is the main cog behind the wheel and not the cow:D

trixi2011

jaymla627 wrote: »

Tried to get away with less meal this year during early summer and was just going with a kilo day, when the mini-drought hit and looked like grass was getting tight upped meal to 3 kg a day and yield went from 19 to 22.5 and stayed up so yes I think you do.....another point lost on lads is the fact that heading into autumn grass quality is dropping/along with dm going in with meal on the shoulders is going to stop you getting a big drop in yield and keep production a lot more consistent

Fully agree that you will good conversion rates when dry matters are low , but when conditions and covers and dry matters allow there is no point in feeding high levels of meal to cows who could preform just as we'll of grass and minim meal

trixi2011

mahoney_j wrote: »

Nope pile of crap,lots of us doing it with them.breed them correctly,high ebi 30 plus kg solids 150 250 kg milk .7500 to 8 k Ltrs is very achievable in the right hands with good grass management and 1 to 1.2 tonne meal.conversion rate of 1.2 to 1.5 or more is achievable.problem is the main cog behind the wheel and not the cow:D

Agree with some of what you say but to be fair you have the breeding and management of cows sorted. Plenty of lads feeding over a tone of meal to cows and not getting 7500/8000 l of milk out of them and you can be sure there cows are not converting 1 for 1

mahoney_j

trixi2011 wrote: »

Agree with some of what you say but to be fair you have the breeding and management of cows sorted. Plenty of lads feeding over a tone of meal to cows and not getting 7500/8000 l of milk out of them and you can be sure there cows are not converting 1 for 1

AS I said if the cow isn't bred correctly and grass ain't managed correctly blame lies at the man behind the wheel:cool:

trixi2011

mahoney_j wrote: »

AS I said if the cow isn't bred correctly and grass ain't managed correctly blame lies at the man behind the wheel:cool:

agree totally but if you have a cow how isn't capable of eating 20+ kg of dm and your grassland management is super is she really going to give a conversion of 1to1 or are you just replacing 1kg of grass with a kg of expensive meal.

solwhit2

Dairygold have dropped it 3 cent to 32 c/l

kowtow

darragh_haven wrote: »

With the 40 year old farmer rule removed, it is by far and away the best financial option here, even 25 grand and tax free is a profit of 50 grand. And id be able to do what I want every weekend... even if it is other work.

I think the leasing incentives are a really positive move forward, actually about the only practical way of tackling the land layout with quota going.

I know that the introduction of the FBT (Farm Business Tenancy) in the UK which replaced centuries old agricultural tenancies was a big help; and the UK didn't suffer as Ireland did from the antiquated system of conacre - a relic of absentee landlords designed to destroy productivity and benefit capital as opposed to production.

What I do wonder - given the big bias in favour of owning land I see around me - is whether tenants will be quite as keen to lease land as new landlords might be to let it? Won't they still want to buy ("we've never lost money owning land...")?

Milked out

kowtow wrote: »

I think the leasing incentives are a really positive move forward, actually about the only practical way of tackling the land layout with quota going.

I know that the introduction of the FBT (Farm Business Tenancy) in the UK which replaced centuries old agricultural tenancies was a big help; and the UK didn't suffer as Ireland did from the antiquated system of conacre - a relic of absentee landlords designed to destroy productivity and benefit capital as opposed to production.

What I do wonder - given the big bias in favour of owning land I see around me - is whether tenants will be quite as keen to lease land as new landlords might be to let it? Won't they still want to buy ("we've never lost money owning land...")?

That's a good point, however having the opportunity to lease land could allow lads to pay for the purchase of land. It's hard enough possibly impossible to pay for land on the back of the same plots own earning potential

frazzledhome

Milked out wrote: »

That's a good point, however having the opportunity to lease land could allow lads to pay for the purchase of land. It's hard enough possibly impossible to pay for land on the back of the same plots own earning potential

As far as I can see its the most efficient way of paying for land purchase. Use someone else's capital

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

As far as I can see its the most efficient way of paying for land purchase. Use someone else's capital

Ive heard you say this before but I dont understand what you mean? Maybe im stupid:)

atlantic mist

rent out ur land tax free, buy new land and use tax free rent money to pay for loan on new land purchases

frazzledhome

atlantic mist wrote: »

rent out ur land tax free, buy new land and use tax free rent money to pay for loan on new land purchases

Well that's not what I meant.
One question what do you use to pay the tax on the capital repayments on the new loan?

What I mean is rent land set up parlour, load with cows pay landlord and use profit along with home farm profit to buy new land

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

Well that's not what I meant.
One question what do you use to pay the tax on the capital repayments on the new loan?

What I mean is rent land set up parlour, load with cows pay landlord and use profit along with home farm profit to buy new land

Now I get you. That makes sense your home farm would need to be running on all 4 cylinders before you think about this

kowtow

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Ive heard you say this before but I dont understand what you mean? Maybe im stupid:)

From a purely financial perspective leased land is a way better deal than purchased land as long as land prices are anywhere near ours.

Take a rent of €350 per €12,000 acre, is a yield of less than 3% - if I put my hedge fund hat on that is far too rich a price (too small a yield) for a long term illiquid asset with high transaction costs. Take that off me for five years and you are getting the better end of the bargain.

If you buy land expecting it to appreciate in value - of course - the picture is different. Our parents and grandparents experience of land purchase (not to mention other property) was that the value growth far outweighed the interest costs primarily because for the last century or so we have lived in inflationary times.

Look back further however and you will see that fifty or a hundred years of land price growth have often been followed by deflation and depression - the US in the 30's is the best example in living memory. You could hardly give land away.

And look at Japan.

We live in interesting times, unfortunately.

Brown Podzol

kowtow wrote: »

From a purely financial perspective leased land is a way better deal than purchased land as long as land prices are anywhere near ours.

Take a rent of €350 per €12,000 acre, is a yield of less than 3% - if I put my hedge fund hat on that is far too rich a price (too small a yield) for a long term illiquid asset with high transaction costs. Take that off me for five years and you are getting the better end of the bargain.

If you buy land expecting it to appreciate in value - of course - the picture is different. Our parents and grandparents experience of land purchase (not to mention other property) was that the value growth far outweighed the interest costs primarily because for the last century or so we have lived in inflationary times.

Look back further however and you will see that fifty or a hundred years of land price growth have often been followed by deflation and depression - the US in the 30's is the best example in living memory. You could hardly give land away.

And look at Japan.

We live in interesting times, unfortunately.

Different dynamic in Ireland as regards land though.

The object of the excersise is to make a profit. What do you do with it. Deposit interest rates are too low and other asset classes haven't been performing and need a lot of hands on management. Fund managers just screw you, allocation amounts and fund percentage fees.

Greengrass1

kowtow wrote: »

From a purely financial perspective leased land is a way better deal than purchased land as long as land prices are anywhere near ours.

Take a rent of €350 per €12,000 acre, is a yield of less than 3% - if I put my hedge fund hat on that is far too rich a price (too small a yield) for a long term illiquid asset without high transaction costs. Take that off me for five years and you are getting the better end of the bargain.

If you buy land expecting it to appreciate in value - of course - the picture is different. Our parents and grandparents experience of land purchase (not to mention other property) was that the value growth far outweighed the interest costs primarily because for the last century or so we have lived in inflationary times.

Look back further however and you will see that fifty or a hundred years of land price growth have often been followed by deflation and depression - the US in the 30's is the best example in living memory. You could hardly give land away.

And look at Japan.

We live in interesting times, unfortunately.

Its ideal situation for a young farmer but young farmer needs the money and experience and a good head on his shoulders to do it. Most of the young lads doing it nearly always clued in as it is any way
Land wouldn't want to have cost you more than 350e in first yr if you have to reseed it

darragh_haven

And the "its my field" mentality. I have it. And lots of others have it. If I have the money, or have the capability to pay a loan off on the purchase of land......I will buy it. Even if the option of leasing was still available

keep going

the only advantage i see to buying land is securing my business phyiscally but it is only replacing one risk with another ie interest rates

kowtow

Brown Podzol wrote: »

Different dynamic in Ireland as regards land though.

Deposit interest rates are too low and other asset classes haven't been performing and need a lot of hands on management.

Deposit rates are negative, as a matter of fact, in real terms.

But that sort of deflation is extreme; and always short term. If low interest rates continue, it is because we are in a deflationary spiral - and a deflationary spiral must sooner or later begin to hit both incomes (which are way over the top in Ireland), high street prices (also way over the top) and - through a combination of de-leveraging and/or radical government action - the usual stores of wealth, which in Ireland is land & property.

If you think of land as a 20 year purchase, it is a fairly safe bet that while you are paying for it interest rates will either revert to the mean and beyond (i.e. 5-10%) or we will enter a period of acute deflation with all the social & financial upheaval that entails. Either one of these situations adds significant downside risk to land purchases made at high prices when interest rates are compressed, as they are now.

Land bought at €15,000 an acre is not "expensive" at all, if everything else is yielding zero or worse. But when interest rates rise or real deflation sets in, it may begin to look very expensive and damned hard to get rid of.

Brown Podzol

kowtow wrote: »

Deposit rates are negative, as a matter of fact, in real terms.

But that sort of deflation is extreme; and always short term. If low interest rates continue, it is because we are in a deflationary spiral - and a deflationary spiral must sooner or later begin to hit both incomes (which are way over the top in Ireland), high street prices (also way over the top) and - through a combination of de-leveraging and/or radical government action - the usual stores of wealth, which in Ireland is land & property.

If you think of land as a 20 year purchase, it is a fairly safe bet that while you are paying for it interest rates will either revert to the mean and beyond (i.e. 5-10%) or we will enter a period of acute deflation with all the social & financial upheaval that entails. Either one of these situations adds significant downside risk to land purchases made at high prices when interest rates are compressed, as they are now.

Land bought at €15,000 an acre is not "expensive" at all, if everything else is yielding zero or worse. But when interest rates rise or real deflation sets in, it may begin to look very expensive and damned hard to get rid of.

I've read your post a few times and I must go and think and study it. Fixing interest rates is one hedge and if the land is used for dairying it is a good bet that the yield would be around 7/8% at 12k an acre and swing with the inflation/deflation. It's what we know and while it won't blow the lights out its a steady, if low yielding,investment. Would land prices be linked to food price?, every one is telling us that demand is going to increase and so should increase the demand for land.

kowtow

Brown Podzol wrote: »

I've read your post a few times and I must go and think and study it. Fixing interest rates is one hedge and if the land is used for dairying it is a good bet that the yield would be around 7/8% at 12k an acre and swing with the inflation/deflation. It's what we know and while it won't blow the lights out its a steady, if low yielding,investment. Would land prices be linked to food price?, every one is telling us that demand is going to increase and so should increase the demand for land.

Fixing interest rates is definitely a hedge if you can do it that far out ... easy for a few years as the yield curve is flat in the short term.

And land prices certainly have some link to food price .. question is, what sort of link, and what sort of food price? will we continue to see food inflation? If we get a true deflationary spiral then food prices can drop like everything else. There is an awful lot of fiat money circulating in the world, and eventually it must be absorbed by either inflation, or deflation - and whatever they say Governments always prefer inflation because the odd food riot is preferable to mass unemployment, starvation, and looting. Either bad inflation or deflation tend to bring strong social measures to re-distribute wealth, from which agricultural wealth is unlikely to escape indefinitely.

Inflation, of course, will bring back interest rates with all the associated issues for asset prices.

In this context a long term lease has it's attractions - someone elses capital is at risk - but owned or rented, always always always, positive cash flow & profitability. One of the dangers of the grass only mantra is the lack of flexibility (i.e. the grazing platform required)... at least the nuts can be driven past your greedy neighbour in a lorry.

Brown Podzol

kowtow wrote: »

Fixing interest rates is definitely a hedge if you can do it that far out ... easy for a few years as the yield curve is flat in the short term.

And land prices certainly have some link to food price .. question is, what sort of link, and what sort of food price? will we continue to see food inflation? If we get a true deflationary spiral then food prices can drop like everything else. There is an awful lot of fiat money circulating in the world, and eventually it must be absorbed by either inflation, or deflation - and whatever they say Governments always prefer inflation because the odd food riot is preferable to mass unemployment, starvation, and looting. Either bad inflation or deflation tend to bring strong social measures to re-distribute wealth, from which agricultural wealth is unlikely to escape indefinitely.

Inflation, of course, will bring back interest rates with all the associated issues for asset prices.

In this context a long term lease has it's attractions - someone elses capital is at risk - but owned or rented, always always always, positive cash flow & profitability. One of the dangers of the grass only mantra is the lack of flexibility (i.e. the grazing platform required)... at least the nuts can be driven past your greedy neighbour in a lorry.

Had to Google fiat money, thought 'twas a misprint. What are the the chances of a deflationary spiral, I assume on a global scale, seeing as we are on world market prices and export so much of our agricultural produce. 20 year euribor swap rate is 1.72 so fixing long term is not prohibitively expensive.