Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

kowtow

Brown Podzol wrote: »

20 year euribor swap rate is 1.72 so fixing long term is not prohibitively expensive.

If you can sell a 20 year euribor swap against an Irish farm asset in the high street you are a better man than me!

Is any Irish commercial bank fixing that far out?

But to answer your question - the fact that long term interest rates are flat on the ground strongly suggests that there is deflation to come. In vastly oversimplified terms, the market doesn't want to pay up today for ready money when assets will be cheaper next year.

frazzledhome

http://joedelves.blogspot.ie/2014/10/milk-price-drops-focus-on-whats.html?spref=tw&m=1

mahoney_j

39.654 cent per litre for September ,3.82 p 4.23 fat .base price 33.87.arrabawns top 10% got 41.229 with solids of 4.72 fat and 3.93 p.thought I was a great lad till I saw that bit!!!.still happy enough cows averaged over 23 ltrs for the month and I reckon top 10% were well off that

Deepsouthwest

mahoney_j wrote: »

39.654 cent per litre for September ,3.82 p 4.23 fat .base price 33.87.arrabawns top 10% got 41.229 with solids of 4.72 fat and 3.93 p.thought I was a great lad till I saw that bit!!!.still happy enough cows averaged over 23 ltrs for the month and I reckon top 10% were well off that

Top 10% are probably milking crossbreds OAD getting half those litres, like me!

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

39.654 cent per litre for September ,3.82 p 4.23 fat .base price 33.87.arrabawns top 10% got 41.229 with solids of 4.72 fat and 3.93 p.thought I was a great lad till I saw that bit!!!.still happy enough cows averaged over 23 ltrs for the month and I reckon top 10% were well off that

Feck ye. Here you don't need that 3c :P
Fair play to ye.
Solids pay !

RightTurnClyde

36.89 c/l with base of 30.41 and 4.25b, 3.90p.
This was OAD from the middle of September, average yield for the month was 21 litres on 0.5kg meal

I could easily get used to this OAD thing.

pS, they're now doing OAD 17litres @ 4.83b and 4.40p, still just getting 0.5kgs

mahoney_j

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Top 10% are probably milking crossbreds OAD getting half those litres, like me!

Yep your right with half the running costs of parlour ,evening free and proab minimum meal Whereas I'm slaving morning and evening and feeding 3 kg😄

orm0nd

mahoney_j wrote: »

39.654 cent per litre for September ,3.82 p 4.23 fat .base price 33.87.arrabawns top 10% got 41.229 with solids of 4.72 fat and 3.93 p.thought I was a great lad till I saw that bit!!!.still happy enough cows averaged over 23 ltrs for the month and I reckon top 10% were well off that

39.469 c/ltr
3.77 % P
4.35% bf
yield 21.14 ltr/day no meals cos of quota


is the base price stated on the new statements?, can't find it, otherwise new statement lay out is a good improvemnt

RightTurnClyde

mahoney_j wrote: »

Yep your right with half the running costs of parlour ,evening free and proab minimum meal Whereas I'm slaving morning and evening and feeding 3 kg😄

You'd have to wonder alright. Have to say its a completely different days work when you're milking OAD. Lots of jobs getting done here once the milking is done in the morning. Great not having to face them in the evening. The two biggest problems I would see with it is, SCC obviously, and the other is the wrong cow type getting fat. A few of the ladies here have some BFr in them and they are the first to start drying them selves off and putting the pounds on their backs. The very milky Ho, seems to be taking to it like a duck to water.
You'd have to wonder if expanding meant having to get help in, would going OAD be a better option instead.

mahoney_j

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

You'd have to wonder alright. Have to say its a completely different days work when you're milking OAD. Lots of jobs getting done here once the milking is done in the morning. Great not having to face them in the evening. The two biggest problems I would see with it is, SCC obviously, and the other is the wrong cow type getting fat. A few of the ladies here have some BFr in them and they are the first to start drying them selves off and putting the pounds on their backs. The very milky Ho, seems to be taking to it like a duck to water.
You'd have to wonder if expanding meant having to get help in, would going OAD be a better option instead.

Bil and his dad switched to oad a few years ago and have finally got the correct cow for it.they go for very milky Holstein with 35 kg solids and good fertility figures.they had mostly br fr at start but they would be practically dry come mid September.the Holstein will peak at around 22/23 ltrs and is fed no more than 3.5 kg meal and grass.bil has off farm business and dad wanted to take things easy so it worked out very well.there was initial cc issues but now well under control.think they averaged 110 last year and fertility and cow condition is excellent

RightTurnClyde

mahoney_j wrote: »

Bil and his dad switched to oad a few years ago and have finally got the correct cow for it.they go for very milky Holstein with 35 kg solids and good fertility figures.they had mostly br fr at start but they would be practically dry come mid September.the Holstein will peak at around 22/23 ltrs and is fed no more than 3.5 kg meal and grass.bil has off farm business and dad wanted to take things easy so it worked out very well.there was initial cc issues but now well under control.think they averaged 110 last year and fertility and cow condition is excellent

Mj, they must be doing 4500-5000litres, do you know what kind of solids are they getting. I assume if the litres/cow is down, their grass intake is down aswell.
If going OAD meant carrying an extra 10 or so % to make up the kgms/ha it wouldn't be the end of the world. I've been thinking for the last few weeks, if you were only milking every morning, you could face into ALOT of cows.
I'll bet they're saving on replacement rates too.

Deepsouthwest

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Mj, they must be doing 4500-5000litres, do you know what kind of solids are they getting. I assume if the litres/cow is down, their grass intake is down aswell.
If going OAD meant carrying an extra 10 or so % to make up the kgms/ha it wouldn't be the end of the world. I've been thinking for the last few weeks, if you were only milking every morning, you could face into ALOT of cows.
I'll bet they're saving on replacement rates too.

Milking OAD here as well for the last few wks and it's the business. Inside putting the kids to bed every evening reminds me there's more to life than milking cows. Wonder has anyone got any results on maybe milking twice a day until mid August or 1st sept, then switching to OAD. Have 40 acres of silage ground over a mile from the parlour, but could prob get cows there after peak yield and peak growth have tailed off. Would help to keep a higher stocking rate through the earlier part of the yr

mahoney_j

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Mj, they must be doing 4500-5000litres, do you know what kind of solids are they getting. I assume if the litres/cow is down, their grass intake is down aswell.
If going OAD meant carrying an extra 10 or so % to make up the kgms/ha it wouldn't be the end of the world. I've been thinking for the last few weeks, if you were only milking every morning, you could face into ALOT of cows.
I'll bet they're saving on replacement rates too.

Off hand think there doing about 5300 ltrs ,calving starts in mid January and usually wrapped up by early April.solids last year was 4.54 fat and 3.57 p.calving is compact and cow condition is excellent.its working extremely well.busy mornings but evenings are pretty leasuirly

Timmaay

We're down to 13.5L on twice a day milking, last test F 4.90 P 3.94. I'd defo be only milking OAD if I could get away with it, but SCC still an issue, hard to get it much under 250. 9 autumn calvers in the mix also, 8 of them heifers, I'd have no issues throwing them all OAD as well. Actually one big annoyance this time of the year is how lazy cows are, took me an extra 5/10mins in the morning to bring them up, they kept on stopping on the laneway, then after the milking I had to drive them out of the yard, and they just stayed on the laneway for ages, going OAD would mean 1/2 the messing around with the likes of that.

RightTurnClyde

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Milking OAD here as well for the last few wks and it's the business. Inside putting the kids to bed every evening reminds me there's more to life than milking cows. Wonder has anyone got any results on maybe milking twice a day until mid August or 1st sept, then switching to OAD. Have 40 acres of silage ground over a mile from the parlour, but could prob get cows there after peak yield and peak growth have tailed off. Would help to keep a higher stocking rate through the earlier part of the yr

From the small bit of research I've done, a big financial bonus of all year round OAD is increased fertility. So I wonder would you loose that bonus by only starting it in September.
I agree with what you are saying about the family, it's all well and good talking big numbers and expansion but you have to have a life aswell. And the kids are only kids for a few years

RightTurnClyde

mahoney_j wrote: »

Off hand think there doing about 5300 ltrs ,calving starts in mid January and usually wrapped up by early April.solids last year was 4.54 fat and 3.57 p.calving is compact and cow condition is excellent.its working extremely well.busy mornings but evenings are pretty leasuirly

So they're doing ~440kgms. At an SR of say 3 that's 1300kgms/ha, nothing at all wrong with that.

whelan2

http://www.agriland.ie/news/glanbias-poor-milk-price-opening-gate-strathroy/

freedominacup

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.agriland.ie/news/glanbias-poor-milk-price-opening-gate-strathroy/

Looks like frazzledhome will be getting a call soon according to that article.

frazzledhome

freedominacup wrote: »

Looks like frazzledhome will be getting a call soon according to that article.

Without opening a can of worms, I'd need to know price per kgms.

Around here its the liquid guys with low solid milk that have moved.

freedominacup

frazzledhome wrote: »

Without opening a can of worms, I'd need to know price per kgms.

Around here its the liquid guys with low solid milk that have moved.

The cover for that can went off in the recycling ages ago.

frazzledhome

freedominacup wrote: »

The cover for that can went off in the recycling ages ago.

Lol:))

mf240

Ok so where im at now is im getting 3 cent less than i could get if i moved.

Glanbia will give me a half a cent of a top up, If i sign up for five years.

Do you think they will remain this far behind into the future??

atlantic mist

hope not!!
need a bit of faith it will all pull together when belview comes on stream but ud be worried after signing a 5yr contract the way the first year has went, if they cant manage a leading price then many more might jump ship

Cow Porter

Dairy market worsening ‘dramatically’ across Europe – European Milk Board http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-market-worsening-dramatically-across-europe-european-milk-board/

Where will it stop at and for how long? Anyone want to guess?

frazzledhome

Cow Porter wrote: »

Dairy market worsening ‘dramatically’ across Europe – European Milk Board http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-market-worsening-dramatically-across-europe-european-milk-board/

Where will it stop at and for how long? Anyone want to guess?

Actually reports of a hardening in NZ. Wouldn't know who to believe at this stage. I suppose it depends on whether you're talking to A glass half ful or empty sort

jaymla627

Cow Porter wrote: »

Dairy market worsening ‘dramatically’ across Europe – European Milk Board http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-market-worsening-dramatically-across-europe-european-milk-board/

Where will it stop at and for how long? Anyone want to guess?

Could be a blessing in disguise, if things get worse for say the first six months of 2015 their is going to be a massive amount of cows culled worldwide simply just to keep cash-flow coming in on dairy farms, along with a lot of the bigger dairies plans putting their expansion plans on the back-burner.
Not one dairy producer in the world can survive and run a sustainable long term business with milk at sub 28 cents a litre except the cases of china etc where the government is heavily subsidizing the sector, i reckon if lads can ride out 2015, that 2016 could see things turn around price wise

Milked out

frazzledhome wrote: »

Actually reports of a hardening in NZ. Wouldn't know who to believe at this stage. I suppose it depends on whether you're talking to A glass half ful or empty sort

I guess now is the time to see if the coops were serious or talking thru their holes with regard to our products hitting new markets to lessen the dependance on the EU market. I know other markets are also slow as well. The major issue is the us will be slower to pull back as grain prices are lower allowing their milk to be produced more cheaply than normal

whelan2

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/irish-companies-used-luxembourg-deals-to-slash-tax-bills-649956.html

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/irish-companies-used-luxembourg-deals-to-slash-tax-bills-649956.html

Hardly a surprise, good management. Nothing illegal

stanflt

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/irish-companies-used-luxembourg-deals-to-slash-tax-bills-649956.html

why do the likes of google ebay etc set up in dublin

loveta

stanflt wrote: »

why do the likes of google ebay etc set up in dublin

Because we are such lovely friendly people of course.. :D:D

frazzledhome

loveta wrote: »

Because we are such lovely friendly people of course.. :D:D

........and highly qualified graduates:)

atlantic mist

why is most of the butter in storage in the eu irish butter does anyone know?

Dawggone

atlantic mist wrote: »

why is most of the butter in storage in the eu irish butter does anyone know?

Really?? What % is Irish butter and how many tons ?

atlantic mist

8000-tonnes-irish-butter-eu-storage-aid-scheme
http://www.agriland.ie/news/8000-tonnes-irish-butter-eu-storage-aid-scheme/

rangler1

Cow Porter wrote: »

Dairy market worsening ‘dramatically’ across Europe – European Milk Board http://www.agriland.ie/news/dairy-market-worsening-dramatically-across-europe-european-milk-board/

Where will it stop at and for how long? Anyone want to guess?

Milk price dropped 11% in a month in England, and some farmers selling under contract can't renew their contract. spot price is as low as 18p/ltr

frazzledhome

rangler1 wrote: »

Milk price dropped 11% in a month in England, and some farmers selling under contract can't renew their contract. spot price is as low as 18p/ltr

The English system is something we need to be careful of. No quota lots of sheds TMR 9k cows and grass for recreation.

Massive costs and mainly fixed, milk price falls shyte hits fan. They go out of business as they can only sustain 2-3 mths, cute grass lads with the runt cows move in and make a killing.

Be very careful post quota

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

The English system is something we need to be careful of. No quota lots of sheds TMR 9k cows and grass for recreation.

Massive costs and mainly fixed, milk price falls shyte hits fan. They go out of business as they can only sustain 2-3 mths, cute grass lads with the runt cows move in and make a killing.

Be very careful post quota

The English "system" is a result of no quotas.
Start off with an average sized farm and xbreds, keep expanding, and you end up with sheds, hols,zgrazing etc.
It's the natural end to expansion UNLESS land is freely available.

mf240

Dawggone wrote: »

The English "system" is a result of no quotas.
Start off with an average sized farm and xbreds, keep expanding, and you end up with sheds, hols,zgrazing etc.
It's the natural end to expansion UNLESS land is freely available.

Its confusing turnover with profit. The hamster wheel effect.

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

The English "system" is a result of no quotas.
Start off with an average sized farm and xbreds, keep expanding, and you end up with sheds, hols,zgrazing etc.
It's the natural end to expansion UNLESS land is freely available.

Agree with that and it's happening as it is on many kiwi farms.land is and will be the new quota.costs can still be controlled as long as one dosnt loose focus.grow and utilise as much grass as possible and don't be afraid to feed meal to get over humps when they occur

Cow Porter

wouldn't know who to believe is right. truth is nobody knows

http://www.agriland.ie/news/fonterra-dairy-trade-auction-results-coherent-markets-stabilising/

frazzledhome

Dawggone wrote: »

The English "system" is a result of no quotas.
Start off with an average sized farm and xbreds, keep expanding, and you end up with sheds, hols,zgrazing etc.
It's the natural end to expansion UNLESS land is freely available.

The cute boys know when to stop.
The Kiwis now realise what they've let themselves in for, may be too late for some though

Dawggone

frazzledhome wrote: »

The cute boys know when to stop.
The Kiwis now realise what they've let themselves in for, may be too late for some though

Very hard to stop when the whole establishment,including the banks, are bleating the expansion mantra.

To me it's a lack of risk assessment.

loveta

Cow Porter wrote: »

wouldn't know who to believe is right. truth is nobody knows

http://www.agriland.ie/news/fonterra-dairy-trade-auction-results-coherent-markets-stabilising/

Was on here last night and reading the links that were posted then seen that one from agriland this morning and was thinking the same as youself "who knows"

whelan2

any word on October price yet?

trixi2011

rangler1 wrote: »

Milk price dropped 11% in a month in England, and some farmers selling under contract can't renew their contract. spot price is as low as 18p/ltr

A lot of different milk contracts in the uk, some of the solids based contracts are still at 28p a litre base for oct milk.

freedominacup

trixi2011 wrote: »

A lot of different milk contracts in the uk, some of the solids based contracts are still at 28p a litre base for oct milk.

There hasn't been any logic to the UK milk price for more than 20 years. They are net importers of dairy products and have been almost since quotas were introduced but yet manage to lag the price paid in many of the countries that export to them. It's hard to think of any other market where this is the case in any product. It's the most glaring example of supermarkets abusing their dominance combined with a very narrow product range being supplied by UK milk processors.

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

any word on October price yet?

Same as will Nov and Dec

Greengrass1

30.5 c for oct milk

red bull

Arrabawn price ?