Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

frazzledhome

red bull wrote: »

Most of my Quota is in Aurivo, not for long I think. Confused

Aren't they good operators?
The first 6 mts will be down to how well funded co ops are, cause market has tanked

orm0nd

red bull wrote: »

Fair play to Arrabawn, top of Journal league for first time in ages. Arrabawn suppliers took a hit on price it seems to put infracsture in place to to take increased supply. I have information that suggests they take milk from Glanbia and Dairygold to process at added value

they had no choice , they lost a lot of top suppliers to kerry some years ago & if they get didn't get their act to gether were going to lose more next spring

it's not for the good of the supplier they upped the price & don't believe it for one moment

arctic8dave

October milk price 40.89 c/l @4.95% fat 4.16% protein Last 12days of month on OAD

Brown Podzol

DG base 32. 4.06p. 4.93f Price 43.158 before levies. 42.8 after levies.

15 lts per cow per day average for the month,€6.50 output on 36c meal per cow per day + 5kg silage. Stocked at 3.6.

kowtow

frazzledhome wrote: »

What I'm referring to in that post has nothing to do with forward trading

Sorry, didn't mean to imply that it did.

It just reminded me of some comments made by one of the processors last week.

And of the policy of using part of one suppliers milk cheque to incentivise another supplier to enter a contract.

whelan2

30.5cpl for November

mahoney_j

whelan2 wrote: »

30.5cpl for November

And December ,areabawn holding just over 32.and seemingly no change till March milk cheque is cashed.

friesian13

nov cheque just in.39.5c 4.06p 4.81bf 288scc

kowtow

"Fixation on this months milk price may have to go"

http://www.agriland.ie/news/must-ensure-ready-next-price-trough/

- Well that's told us!

slippy wicket

Nice little cheque in the post today for November milk. 40.3cpl 5.03 fat &4.05 protein.
We've been breeding in high ebi genomic sires for last few years and it's nice to se incremental improvements in solids.
Seems to be an important way to counteract price volatility.

whelan2

41.86 cpl net milk price here:)

milkprofit

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

Dawggone

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

+1. Agree.
Very important to know when to batten down the hatches and keep liquid as good opportunities WILL occur.

I always reckoned that one income stream (from agri) is dangerous.

joejobrien

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.
Well said.
Unfortunately

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

Well said.
Unfortunately many believed it would remain at high prices forever and a day and couldnt see the woods from the trees and some ithink may be even on here:D
All jokes aside, it is the processor that will win out irrespective of the producer making money. Make no mistake ,They will have a margin

Greengrass1

milkprofit wrote: »

Perhaps nobody in the industry down south industry is brave enough to prioritise the interests of the producer over the policy-makers lust for a 50% increase in milk production by 2020? A 50% increase remains a valid and worthwhile target, but in that regard, our destination has to be more important than our speed.

Should rapid expansion plans be put on hold on some farms until markets recover? I fear for the negative consequences for some, of trying to adjust to the demands of larger herds and increased loan repayments without the cushion of a decent milk price.

It’s easy to measure the financial fall-out. The effect on the mental and physical health of farm families under stress can be more difficult to quantify. Years such as 2015 are all about saving the business and leaving any stresses that arise outside the house where they belong.

I hear many younger farmers in particular, outlining that they will milk a lot more cows in 2015 to ‘dilute their costs’.

However, I am also aware of many farmers who are planning to milk 10-15% less cows next year, while also rearing 10-15% less youngstock, with a view to not incurring the costs in the first place. They have already sold a lot of stock to raise cash to bolster next year’s budget.

With poorer cows removed and less heifers coming into the herd, most expect to deliver close to the same milk output as 2014 but with reduced expenditure on feed, fertiliser and silage related costs in particular. These farmers are focussed on their own goals and profits, not those of their processors, advisors or Government policy makers.

do u agree

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

5live

Greengrass1 wrote: »

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

We knew it wouldn't stay but nobody was thinking a fall to mid 20s.

A neighbour, lots of cows and farms leased both local and in other counties.
He doesn't do much wrong, superb operator.

In 2009, he dried the cows off and sent half to the factory, all the empty, problem, high scc etc. He got a decent price for them, cash in hand and silage enough for the remaining cows and large numbers of replacements so no need to buy anything.

He kept all his heifers in the herd instead of selling a good few as normal and went to sales to buy calved replacements. He ended up with a young herd and only a few thousand euro down with no hassle of looking for feed. He has been doing this for years now.

He reckons you should never waste a crisis because in a crisis you find yourself having to make decisions that would be a million miles away from what would be 'normal'.

Next year is another one of those years.

kowtow

5live wrote: »

We knew it wouldn't stay but nobody was thinking a fall to mid 20s......



He reckons you should never waste a crisis because in a crisis you find yourself having to make decisions that would be a million miles away from what would be 'normal'.

Next year is another one of those years.

What a few people seem to be slow to grasp is that the market price will *always* drop enough in each cycle to force decisions by suppliers - farmers, which will always mean drastic business changing losses for some.

Without regulation (quotas) and with an investment cycle like dairy there is no other way for the market to cut off supply. Prices do not turn around until either the supply side or the buy side is losing money and has exhausted it's capital buffer - full stop, end of story.

Dawggone

joejobrien wrote: »

Well said.
Unfortunately many believed it would remain at high prices forever and a day and couldnt see the woods from the trees and some ithink may be even on here:D
All jokes aside, it is the processor that will win out irrespective of the producer making money. Make no mistake ,They will have a margin

Bang on there.
Should be read and reread.
Processors will always have a margin.


BTW. Where have you seen processors posting figures for the maximum they can pay for milk?? NEVER.

Guys come on here and elsewhere quoting the minimum they can produce milk for....AND they don't even include a wage for themselves!!

Wages always get paid in the real world.

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

Bang on there.
Should be read and reread.
Processors will always have a margin.


BTW. Where have you seen processors posting figures for the maximum they can pay for milk?? NEVER.

Guys come on here and elsewhere quoting the minimum they can produce milk for....AND they don't even include a wage for themselves!!

Wages always get paid in the real world.

Your last piece very relevant ,Tegasc and others blowing steam through their holes claimin they can produce milk at 23/24 is foolish and misleading.average cost of production including labour is 30 plus cent in this country

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

If farmers did they budgets right they shouldn't have sell stock.
I'm not selling anything. We'll knew it wouldn't stay at 39c forever

A budget is just that gg,things go wrong and **** happens that ain't planned.yourvestablished and expanding with stock on hand same as me why should u sell.if milk is sub 25 for most of next year u me and most of us will have milked for nothing next year and barely break even and drastic measures may be called for that a budget will not predict .its ok to budget but only 3 months out

mf240

Was at a glanbia public meeting in kilkenny a while ago
And they had slides to show all about the new baby formula plant there building and talked about how they were selling a lot of high protien powder ect to recovering cancer patients and other high end products.

But when it came to the slide in relation to what they were paying farmers they only wanted to talk butter and skim.

mf240

Been finishing all the cattle from the dairy herd for beef every year and have been told by teagasc and others that they are not making any money. Yet next year it will be grand to have 40 or 50 factory cattle to sell when milk is on the floor.

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

A budget is just that gg,things go wrong and **** happens that ain't planned.yourvestablished and expanding with stock on hand same as me why should u sell.if milk is sub 25 for most of next year u me and most of us will have milked for nothing next year and barely break even and drastic measures may be called for that a budget will not predict .its ok to budget but only 3 months out

Your dead right. But if we all went out and sold the extra stock we have on hand to increase on this yrs number we would loose money on them with a glut. We'll loose money either road. Its a last resort for me any way.
Expansion plans should be done over 2-3yrs at a low price.
We use what ouf av 09 price was.

kowtow

mf240 wrote: »

But when it came to the slide in relation to what they were paying farmers they only wanted to talk butter and skim.

I'm sure most of those involved have the best intentions; but the conflict of interest between monopoly first purchaser & upstream processor seems insoluble to me.

mahoney_j

mf240 wrote: »

Been finishing all the cattle from the dairy herd for beef every year and have been told by teagasc and others that they are not making any money. Yet next year it will be grand to have 40 or 50 factory cattle to sell when milk is on the floor.

Me too ,they'll rspecially fr bullocks barely break even but leave a ball of cash to pay some bills.

kowtow

mahoney_j wrote: »

Me too ,they'll rspecially fr bullocks barely break even but leave a ball of cash to pay some bills.

"Naturally milk raised Irish dairy bullocks", please.

Or "super levies" for short.

Dawggone

mf240 wrote: »

Been finishing all the cattle from the dairy herd for beef every year and have been told by teagasc and others that they are not making any money. Yet next year it will be grand to have 40 or 50 factory cattle to sell when milk is on the floor.

Two income streams...madness!!!
All land under cows, contract rear heifers, blah..blah..

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Your dead right. But if we all went out and sold the extra stock we have on hand to increase on this yrs number we would loose money on them with a glut. We'll loose money either road. Its a last resort for me any way.
Expansion plans should be done over 2-3yrs at a low price.
We use what ouf av 09 price was.

Selling is a lasts resort for me too next year but if someone is willing to offer funny money for a few of my cows I'll listen,sold 3 lowish ebi second calvers today for 1700 to a guy I sold stock to 2 years ago .calving early March to Ai fr Bulls .sheds as full as they've ever been this year and selling these 3 has lightened things slightly as well as lining my pocket

Greengrass1

mahoney_j wrote: »

Selling is a lasts resort for me too next year but if someone is willing to offer funny money for a few of my cows I'll listen,sold 3 lowish ebi second calvers today for 1700 to a guy I sold stock to 2 years ago .calving early March to Ai fr Bulls .sheds as full as they've ever been this year and selling these 3 has lightened things slightly as well as lining my pocket

If I got 1700e I'd take it too. Lads know stock esp heifers will be cheap in spring so there waiting

mahoney_j

kowtow wrote: »

"Naturally milk raised Irish dairy bullocks", please.

Or "super levies" for short.

No major levy issues here thankfully,stock I'm talking about are this years fr bull calves .most of them will be hitting theroad this spring as milking herd expands .will keep a handful of fr Bulls for breeding as well as my Hereford and Bb calves to year and a half as I've a few bits of land away frommoarlour

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

Selling is a lasts resort for me too next year but if someone is willing to offer funny money for a few of my cows I'll listen,sold 3 lowish ebi second calvers today for 1700 to a guy I sold stock to 2 years ago .calving early March to Ai fr Bulls .sheds as full as they've ever been this year and selling these 3 has lightened things slightly as well as lining my pocket

Cow price is tanking.
I've been offered first pick on 110cow herd with 10800kg average. Guess how much for pick of fresh calvers?

mahoney_j

Dawggone wrote: »

Cow price is tanking.
I've been offered first pick on 110cow herd with 10800kg average. Guess how much for pick of fresh calvers?

1500????

mahoney_j

Greengrass1 wrote: »

If I got 1700e I'd take it too. Lads know stock esp heifers will be cheap in spring so there waiting

Good well breed heifers and cows will not be cheap,there's always a demand for good stock with good records and health status

Dawggone

mahoney_j wrote: »

1500????

€1250. Can only buy a few as don't have space in milk tank.

Two agents telling me that fresh calved cows (hols) will be sub €1000 in feb mar.

Dawggone

Mid month milk:
Bf. 4.35
P 3.4
Scc. 173
Tbc. 5
Urea 32(0)


42.4 cpl plus vat.

slippy wicket

Totally agree with milk profit, slow and steady, managing costs and maximising milk solids has to be a better plan than going all out borrowing and having more cows and producing more milk but being financially worse off at the end
Doesnt make sense to me.

solwhit12

Dairygold have dropped it 2c to 30cpl

red bull

No change in Arrabawn I hear

mahoney_j

Arrabawn base 32.036
My price 41.086
4.86 fat
4.13 p
Average top 10% 44.46 5.54 fat 4.43 p

Seemingly holding base price till February's cheque is cashed and bullish for next year even in a bad price year.natural gas currently been piped in as well as new boilers and extea processing capacity and also a better ability to produce a more diverse product mix than lumping everything into smp.hopefully after years of looking up at all the other coops we can finally start climbing the ladder and look down at everyone else's price for a change

milkprofit

bf .21
pr 3.38
price 44.28 liquid and baileys

frazzledhome

Bf 5.18
P 3.96
WM bonus 8.56
Net 49.85

Greengrass1

Eating humble pie looking at everyone's MP.
Pr 3.56
Fat 4.69
45.56cpl
Lost a /c with a high tbc

whelan2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Eating humble pie looking at everyone's MP.
Pr 3.56
Fat 4.69
45.56cpl
Lost a /c with a high tbc

TUT TUT:) what caused that?

Greengrass1

whelan2 wrote: »

TUT TUT:) what caused that?

Tank I reckon. Only one spike milk manager said he sorted it but obv didnt

whelan2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Tank I reckon. Only one spike milk manager said he sorted it but obv didnt

IF tbc stays down this month you might get the 1 cent back

Dawggone

whelan2 wrote: »

IF tbc stays down this month you might get the 1 cent back

That's one thing you won't get here - leniency.
Everything is straight down the line.

jaymla627

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Tank I reckon. Only one spike milk manager said he sorted it but obv didnt

Got docked here aswell with milk that was on a 4 day, collection at 84000, the next test was 12,000 and never done a thing different because both tests results came through together....thought 50,000 was the limit bit of a piss take with tbc testing 4 day old milk too even eu regulations have 3 days as the máx milk is ment to stay in a farmers tank

frazzledhome

What's Tbc limit and fine

Greengrass1

frazzledhome wrote: »

What's Tbc limit and fine

50000
That I don't know

whelan2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

50000
That I don't know

is it not 30,000?