NBA Playoffs 2012/13

padraig_f

leggo wrote: »

If you think about it, though, as great as SA have been...Heat still have home court advantage.

Oh yeah, I know they will be underdogs in both games, but I just thought the cumulative probability of both games would make them favourites.

It's a bit like a 2-for-1 situation at the end of a quarter. I once heard a commentator say (think it was Reggie Miller) 'You're better off getting one good shot than two bad ones', wrong! You're better off getting two bad shots than one good one. e.g. you get two 30% shots, and it's equivalent to one 60% shot. But if you take a good shot, it's probably only about 50%, so the two bad shots are nearly always better.

The good teams understand this (everyone understands 2-for-1, but seems like only some teams understand the '2 bad shots is better than one good one' part). Tony Parker is well aware of it, he did it at the end of the first half of game 5. About 30 seconds left on the clock, he took a low-percentage pull-up jumper off the dribble, and missed. After getting the ball back, they had about 4 seconds left, and brilliantly went the length of the court for Parker to get a layup with just a few tenths left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3whFGgmvZU

No coincidence they got that possession, Parker engineered it on the play before.

Getting back to the series, the Spurs are kind of in a 2-for-1 situation now. At 2.6/1, the bookies give them about a 28% chance to win tonight's game. The point at which they'd become favourite for the series with two chances is about 30%, so the line wouldn't need to be too far off for them to be considered favourites.

ButtersSuki

Echo above for those reasons....and more.

I see SA as slight favourites. The pressure is ALL on Miami tonight and they've not overcome a must-win series-ender in a series like this before (I'm assuming everyone will agree the Finals are a step up from Conference play?).

Plus neither team has managed to win 2 straight in this series so it's a lot to ask for Miami to do it now. Even if Miami win tonight, the pressure on Game 7 will be huge.

San Antonio have been there, done that. And Pop has shown he has the coaching advantage over Spoelstra in this series.

If Parker is 100%, I could see this being all over tonight.

Paully D

Joey Crawford it is. Lump on a Miami win now tonight. :pac:

PizzamanIRL

Joey Crawford can't stop 3's going down. Sorry lads it's all over tonight.

ButtersSuki

PizzamanIRL wrote: »

Joey Crawford can't stop 3's going down. Sorry lads it's all over tonight.

What? Joey Crawford can eject players for laughing. :rolleyes:

Anything can happen with Joey in charge.

Wonder will Paddy Power give me odds on a T or an ejection?

For Forks Sake

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Check back to my post on the 9th May on the proposed LAC-BOS trade and see how much it's moved since then:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=84528771

It was Blake Griffin, Jordan and Bledsoe for Doc, KG and Pierce!

For me as a Celtics fan, it seems obvious Doc and KG now want to leave. If that's the case, let them go. But I'd want more than Jordan and a couple of pics for this.

Not happening for now anyway. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1677030-celtics-clippers-end-blockbuster-trade-talks-around-doc-rivers-kevin-garnett

Dublin Red Devil

You gotta love Coach Pop

manafana

just seen crawford ejecting duncan for laughing on bench hes going be terrible tonight.

PizzamanIRL

Dublin Red Devil wrote: »

You gotta love Coach Pop

Love his interviews. He gives nothing to the media. Straight up simple answers.

Paully D

Heat blowout coming up I fear.

Paully D

Pete Damilatis ‏@PFF_Pete 21s

So Joey Crawford is working tonight. I picture David Stern in a conference room yelling "I am the one who knocks!"

:pac::pac::pac:

Nuri Sahin

Still under 2 mins left, but hot damn, what an opening quarter!

darced

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Nuri Sahin

Amazing. Spurs lead by 6 at the half after ending it with a nice run, Duncan is on fire at the offensive end.

GoldFour4

Duncan with 25 in the first half, Green has been played out of it. Lebron is trying to hard to get Bosh into the game, uber frustrating to watch him miss 3 shots in a row at the end of the half.

darced

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PizzamanIRL

I love Kawhai Leonard. Silent Assassin. Emotionless face. Hope to see a smile when they win tonight.

D.Q

LeBron really coming alive now.

Paully D

Spurs are going to blow this. A big lead going into the fourth quarter too. For **** sake.

seva42413

whos leading now?

That James guy looks a lot like a character on the Xbox.

seva42413

seva42413 wrote: »

whos leading now?

SA up by 4 with 28 seconds left and free throws to come.

seva42413

cant watch coz i got tied up with work.:mad:

seva42413

Deleted User wrote: »

SA up by 4 with 28 seconds left and free throws to come.

good..:) what quarter is it now?hope i can catch up with last quarter.:(

SA up by 5 with 28 to go, Heat have ball and no timeouts.

Heat with a 3 to make it 95-95 with 5.2 left.

darced

This post has been deleted.

Into O/T. Gotta fancy the Heat now.

Paully D

How the Spurs didn't win that in normal time I will never know. They need to win it in OT now because there's no way Miami lose a game seven on their home court IMO. What a chance the Spurs had there.

seva42413

geez close fight...