PGA Tour Thread

Rikand

Rikand wrote: »

no more posts about DJ - I presume he has since filled his togs

Just parring out currently, hardly filling the togs made some decent puts to hold so far

10 foot for another birdie

missed by an inch

O DJ..........

Takes driver and runs out of fairway

SuprSi

I really want him to do this, but him spitting makes me not care. Why does he do that?!

looks like a difficult 23 footer for birdie

SuprSi

Shame, you could see the nerves were at him. And then he spits again!!

Mushy

Never thought I'd be disappointed seeing a player get a 60

Mysterypunter

Mushy wrote: »

Never thought I'd be disappointed seeing a player get a 60

Like a 147 in snooker, you could shoot 59 and not win the match or tournament. So I think in the context of the tournament its more important that he is only 2 in front, could have been 4 or 5.

Dr. Bre

Nice lead for Dustin going into last round

Mushy

Winder will we see the -30 mark broken

Happy4all

Don't generally watch the women's golf, but that was a nice fairytale winner. She held the nerves together greatly.

Mantis Toboggan

Wonder will Brooks be watching tonight.

Potential Underachiever

Mushy wrote: »

Winder will we see the -30 mark broken

Has 30 under been done before? what's the record?

Mushy

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

Has 30 under been done before? what's the record?

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

Potential Underachiever

Mushy wrote: »

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

DJ just needs a 59 to beat that, no bother I think!

Mushy

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

DJ just needs a 59 to beat that, no bother I think!

I wont wait up this time if hes going well!

spacecoyote

Mushy wrote: »

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

Thought it was 31 by Els. Didnt realise Stricker had gone that low

Mushy

spacecoyote wrote: »

Thought it was 31 by Els. Didnt realise Stricker had gone that low

Bob Hope Classic, didnt look too much into it so maybe it wasnt a proper competition

gypsy79

Mushy wrote: »

Bob Hope Classic, didnt look too much into it so maybe it wasnt a proper competition

Or was a par 70 vs a par 71 and therefore Els was less shots??

paulos53

The Bob Hope classic was a 5 round tournament.



Just did a search and Stricker was -33 for the first 4 rounds but finished with a 77 to lose by 5

ligerdub

paulos53 wrote: »

The Bob Hope classic was a 5 round tournament.



Just did a search and Stricker was -33 for the first 4 rounds but finished with a 77 to lose by 5

Such a Stricker thing to do.

Mysterypunter

Finished - 30, some play from Dustin, won by 11.

Potential Underachiever

Phenomenal from Big Deej, it was poetry in motion.

abff

DJ back up to world number 1. This is the 4th change in the past 6 weeks.

Whiplash85

abff wrote: »

DJ back up to world number 1. This is the 4th change in the past 6 weeks.

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

bren2001

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

If Colin Morikawa makes cuts, he'll overtake him once he gets close to the minimum divisor number. Can be done by the end of the year.

GreeBo

bren2001 wrote: »

If Colin Morikawa makes cuts, he'll overtake him once he gets close to the minimum divisor number. Can be done by the end of the year.

Only if DJ stops winning I guess?

DJ looks unbeatable when he is in this form.

Bubbaclaus

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

If he can keep up this level of play then agreed he will be #1 for a while. His form can be hit and miss though - he has missed 2 cuts since the restart and also had another few tournaments where he wasnt in contention on the weekend. Hard to know what DJ you are going to get any given week.

Tbf one. Of DJs mc came week after one of his earlier wins, his head really didn't look in it.

Week after he put a few balls in the water on a par 5 couldn't make a putt all round and then he "hurt his back" and withdrew

Think he had 5 or 6 water balls in those 3 rounds which is a bit of an outlier for most pro golfers no mind someone as good as DJ.

He should be rightly lauded for the victory and manner of it, clinic in ball striking.

To win by so. Much and not even be number 1 in putting is pretty amazing

bren2001

GreeBo wrote: »

Only if DJ stops winning I guess?

DJ looks unbeatable when he is in this form.

Well, if anyone wins week in week out, they'll stay on top easily enough.

Morikawa is on 298.18 points over 29 events giving him an average points total of 10.28.

DJ is 412.28/45 = 9.16.

So Colin would have to fall off significantly over his next 11 events before he reaches the minimum divisor to be caught by DJ or DJ would have to up his game (maintain winning, top 5's).

Hard not to see Morikawa go number 1 even for a short period.

Bubbaclaus

bren2001 wrote: »

Well, if anyone wins week in week out, they'll stay on top easily enough.

Morikawa is on 298.18 points over 29 events giving him an average points total of 10.28.

DJ is 412.28/45 = 9.16.

So Colin would have to fall off significantly over his next 11 events before he reaches the minimum divisor to be caught by DJ or DJ would have to up his game (maintain winning, top 5's).

Hard not to see Morikawa go number 1 even for a short period.

Not really a like for like comparison. If Morikawa had been a pro a couple years and was after reaching the 40 event divisor, he would have events nearly 2 years old with very little points left that would be reducing his average.

It's why the minimum divisor exists.

bren2001

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Not really a like for like comparison. If Morikawa had been a pro a couple years and was after reaching the 40 event divisor, he would have events nearly 2 years old with very little points left that would be reducing his average.

It's why the minimum divisor exists.

But he doesn't and that is the point. Every tournament he plays adds to his total, the same isn't true for DJ. He is on track to become world number 1. He only needs around 70 more points from his next 11 starts, i.e. he can average around 6.4, which is easily doable.

It's no guarantee he will become world number 1 but he is on course to be.

Bubbaclaus

bren2001 wrote: »

But he doesn't and that is the point. Every tournament he plays adds to his total, the same isn't true for DJ. He is on track to become world number 1. He only needs around 70 more points from his next 11 starts, i.e. he can average around 6.4, which is easily doable.

It's no guarantee he will become world number 1 but he is on course to be.

I agree he can certainly achieve it, I just disagree with your summary that he only needs 70 points in his next 11 events to achieve it. He will have points starting to drop off as they get older and DJ will be picking up points of his own.

bren2001

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I agree he can certainly achieve it, I just disagree with your summary that he only needs 70 points in his next 11 events to achieve it. He will have points starting to drop off as they get older and DJ will be picking up points of his own.

What events does he have to drop off? He's only played 29 counting events. His current total is divided by 40 and will continue to be until he hits 41 events.

DJ may gain points but he may also lose points as tournaments will drop off for him. Each tournament Colin plays in definitely adds to his total which is a brilliant advantage to have.

abff

bren2001 wrote: »

What events does he have to drop off? He's only played 29 counting events. His current total is divided by 40 and will continue to be until he hits 41 events.

DJ may gain points but he may also lose points as tournaments will drop off for him. Each tournament Colin plays in definitely adds to his total which is a brilliant advantage to have.

I’m not sure you fully understand how the ranking system works.

The points won in a tournament have a weighting applied depending on how many weeks ago they were earned. If it’s within the previous 13 weeks, the weighting is 100%. This weighting then reduces on a uniform basis to zero over the following 92 weeks. The weeks when the ranking was frozen are excluded when calculating the weighting.

So, while Morikawa will continue to have points counting for those 29 events until he has played another 11 ranking events, the weighting applied to those tournaments that are more than 13 weeks old will reduce each week and the weighting applied to more recent tournaments will start to reduce when they reach the 13 week mark.

Also, those of DJ’s results that are close to 2 years old will start to fall out of the calculation. As these events currently have a very low weighting, the fact that they disappear from the calculation helps to mitigate the fall in weighting being applied to the other events he has played is.

When things are close at the top, a combination of the above factors can lead to a change in who is at the top in weeks in which neither golfer plays.

bren2001

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

tobsey

bren2001 wrote: »

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

The PGA has had a massive effect on Morikowa’s ranking though. His average was 7 until that. He was on a march up the rankings alright but he’ll need another win in the next few months to reach the top. Or be a lot more consistent with regular top 10s.

bren2001

tobsey wrote: »

The PGA has had a massive effect on Morikowa’s ranking though. His average was 7 until that. He was on a march up the rankings alright but he’ll need another win in the next few months to reach the top. Or be a lot more consistent with regular top 10s.

By equal measures, DJs win had a massive effect on his ranking brought him from 7.6113 to 9.1618.

If he can maintain that 7, he's there or thereabouts at #1 assuming everyone else plays similarly to their historical form. There's also big tournaments ahead with a high SOF coefficient so plenty of points on offer.

abff

bren2001 wrote: »

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

I decided to project the rankings forward by 14 weeks to end November. For simplicity, I assumed both DJ and CM would play in 11 ranking events between now and then.

If they both earn the same number of points from those tournaments, then DJ will still be ahead of CM if the total points earned by each of them is 90 or less and CM will be ahead if it’s 90 or more. Of course, there’s also the possibility that someone else will overtake both of them.

If I project things out another 4 weeks to the year end rankings and still assume 11 tournaments each and the same number of points each, then the cut off for determining which of them is ahead remains at 90 points. This is due to the interaction between DJ losing more points but having one less counting tournament.

Given that on recent form, both players can be expected to pick up more than 90 points in total over their next 11 tournaments, your assertion that CM will move ahead of DJ if they achieve similar results is not unreasonable.

But the likelihood is that one of them will outperform the other and whoever that is will probably finish ahead, although DJ would need to do a bit better than CM overall if they both continue playing at or near their current level. For example, if CM were to pick up 150 points, DJ would need to earn 159 points to stay ahead of him.

Should be an interesting few months. And you can’t rule Rahm and JT out of the picture, or Rory if he can get his act together (which seems unlikely, based on his recent form).

abff

After doing the above calculations, I had a look at the schedule for the remainder of the year and I can’t see DJ playing any more than 6 or 7 times between now and year end. Two playoff events, two majors, a WGC and possibly one or two others. I think that somewhat reduces the likelihood of CM passing him in the rankings by year end.

gypsy79

abff wrote: »

After doing the above calculations, I had a look at the schedule for the remainder of the year and I can’t see DJ playing any more than 6 or 7 times between now and year end. Two playoff events, two majors, a WGC and possibly one or two others. I think that somewhat reduces the likelihood of CM passing him in the rankings by year end.

Sorry but that shows complete lack of understanding of the reason why Morikawa may become world number 1

DJ has points coming on and off and will remain between 40 and 52 events

Morikawa has only played 29 events but must use 40 as a divisor

If he was allowed to use 29 then his average points would be 10.28 (298.18/29)

This would have him well ahead of DJ who has 9.16

abff

gypsy79 wrote: »

Sorry but that shows complete lack of understanding of the reason why Morikawa may become world number 1

DJ has points coming on and off and will remain between 40 and 52 events

Morikawa has only played 29 events but must use 40 as a divisor

If he was allowed to use 29 then his average points would be 10.28 (298.18/29)

This would have him well ahead of DJ who has 9.16

My projections were based on downloading the data from the OWGR and rolling forward the weightings to future dates. They are based on hard data, not conjecture.

To say that I show a complete lack of understanding is not only extremely insulting, it’s also completely inaccurate.

You are the one who seems to be having difficulty understanding how the rankings work.

bren2001

abff wrote: »

After doing the above calculations, I had a look at the schedule for the remainder of the year and I can’t see DJ playing any more than 6 or 7 times between now and year end. Two playoff events, two majors, a WGC and possibly one or two others. I think that somewhat reduces the likelihood of CM passing him in the rankings by year end.

That's all very interesting. I assume an additional 90 points gets Colin to around 370 with the weightings and all that?

I thought the gap between the two in terms of performance was slightly larger than it is. I did think DJ would have to have a big upturn or Colin a big downturn for him not to be number 1 but I didn't look at the maths in detail. Of course, you would expect one of them to outperform the other but it does go to show how close Colin is to #1.

The only thing I'm not following is why DJ not playing more than 6/7 impacts Morikawa. Surely the biggest variable is him closing in on 40 tournaments?

DuckSlice

DJ is number 1 that's all that matters.

abff

bren2001 wrote: »

That's all very interesting. I assume an additional 90 points gets Colin to around 370 with the weightings and all that?

I thought the gap between the two in terms of performance was slightly larger than it is. I did think DJ would have to have a big upturn or Colin a big downturn for him not to be number 1 but I didn't look at the maths in detail. Of course, you would expect one of them to outperform the other but it does go to show how close Colin is to #1.

The only thing I'm not following is why DJ not playing more than 6/7 impacts Morikawa. Surely the biggest variable is him closing in on 40 tournaments?

Colin currently has 298.18 points. The application of the weighting factor to tournaments more than 13 weeks ago will cause these points to be eroded to 266.93 points by end November and 252.65 points by end December. Adding 90 points would bring him to 356.93 and 342.65 points respectively. As his divisor will still be 40 (unless he’s played more than 11 tournaments by then, which seems highly unlikely), this would give him a points average of 8.923 at end November or 8.566 at end December. If some of those 90 points are earned in December, then the end November figure would be lower than the 8.923 shown above.

DJ currently has 412.28 points. This will reduce to 329.41 by end November and 304.08 by end December. He currently has 45 ranking events in the past two years (as adjusted for the COVID-19 break). 9 of these will fall out of the calculation by end November and a further one by end December. If he plays 11 tournaments between now and end November (and we know that’s Not going to happen), his divisor would be 47 at end November and 46 at end December, giving points averages of 8.924 and 8.567 respectively.

But say he only plays 6 tournaments between now and end November and 1 further tournament in December. In that case, his divisor would 42 at both dates, giving him an average of 9.754 at end November (assuming all 90 points are earned by then) and 9.165 at end December, both of which would be comfortably ahead of CM.

gypsy79

abff wrote: »

My projections were based on downloading the data from the OWGR and rolling forward the weightings to future dates. They are based on hard data, not conjecture.

To say that I show a complete lack of understanding is not only extremely insulting, it’s also completely inaccurate.

You are the one who seems to be having difficulty understanding how the rankings work.

Then explain how the 7 competitions reduce the chances of CM been number 1. I have shown that CM would be a full point ahead of DJ if the 40 multiplier didnt exist

DJ has 76, 56 and 68 that havent even moved off the multiplier of 1 so he will be losing point quicker than CM

He also has more points to loose. If their results were equal going forward CM will eventually overtake DJ. If that is not correct show me why it isnt true

abff

gypsy79 wrote: »

Morikawa has only played 29 events but must use 40 as a divisor

If he was allowed to use 29 then his average points would be 10.28 (298.18/29)

This would have him well ahead of DJ who has 9.16

Just to follow up on my previous response to your post, you’re ignoring one very important point in looking at the average figures.

The total points earned by Morikawa over those 29 tournaments was 328.96. Allowing for the weighting applied to points earned more than 13 weeks ago gives the adjusted total of 298.18 that is used to calculate his ranking. He therefore earned an average of 11.33 points per tournament, but the erosion of points values over time reduces this to 10.28.

In the 45 tournaments played by DJ, he has earned 771.56 points, a whopping average of 17.15 per tournament and over 50% higher than Morikawa’s average. Because these tournaments are spread over the full two year period, the erosion in point values is much higher, bringing his weighted average down to 9.16. But this weighting will remain relatively stable as new tournaments come into the calculation and older ones fall out of the reckoning.

But the same can not be said of Morikawa’s average weighting. This will gradually reduce over time until it becomes something closer to DJ’s.

Hopefully, this will help to explain the apparent dichotomy between Morikawa’s current average and his potential future ranking.

Of course, the biggest factor influencing where everyone will finish in future rankings will be how they perform in future tournaments and there’s no doubt that Morikawa looks to have the potential to be a future number 1.

abff

gypsy79 wrote: »

Then explain how the 7 competitions reduce the chances of CM been number 1. I have shown that CM would be a full point ahead of DJ if the 40 multiplier didnt exist

Sorry, just seen this now. Hopefully my last two posts explain things to your satisfaction, but I’m happy to discuss further if you’ve any additional questions.

gypsy79

abff wrote: »

Sorry, just seen this now. Hopefully my last two posts explain things to your satisfaction, but I’m happy to discuss further if you’ve any additional questions.

You are doing quite a bit of if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle. Statistics can be misused to prove nearly any reasonable point (see your point is reasonable but just wrong imo)

Just taking away the last two results from Dj (going soon) and his average drops to 16.17, take away 5 and it is 15.59

It will be a full year till Morikawa will have played two years and be in similar situation. He is nearly at Im levels of turning up for tournies

I have a degree in statistics and people (ab)using numbers to prove their point is a pet hate!!