PGA Tour Thread

Mushy

Winder will we see the -30 mark broken

Happy4all

Don't generally watch the women's golf, but that was a nice fairytale winner. She held the nerves together greatly.

Mantis Toboggan

Wonder will Brooks be watching tonight.

Potential Underachiever

Mushy wrote: »

Winder will we see the -30 mark broken

Has 30 under been done before? what's the record?

Mushy

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

Has 30 under been done before? what's the record?

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

Potential Underachiever

Mushy wrote: »

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

DJ just needs a 59 to beat that, no bother I think!

Mushy

Potential Underachiever wrote: »

DJ just needs a 59 to beat that, no bother I think!

I wont wait up this time if hes going well!

spacecoyote

Mushy wrote: »

Seemingly 33 under was done in 09 by Steve Stricker. Dont think thatll be hit, but itll be close enough I guess

Thought it was 31 by Els. Didnt realise Stricker had gone that low

Mushy

spacecoyote wrote: »

Thought it was 31 by Els. Didnt realise Stricker had gone that low

Bob Hope Classic, didnt look too much into it so maybe it wasnt a proper competition

gypsy79

Mushy wrote: »

Bob Hope Classic, didnt look too much into it so maybe it wasnt a proper competition

Or was a par 70 vs a par 71 and therefore Els was less shots??

paulos53

The Bob Hope classic was a 5 round tournament.



Just did a search and Stricker was -33 for the first 4 rounds but finished with a 77 to lose by 5

ligerdub

paulos53 wrote: »

The Bob Hope classic was a 5 round tournament.



Just did a search and Stricker was -33 for the first 4 rounds but finished with a 77 to lose by 5

Such a Stricker thing to do.

Mysterypunter

Finished - 30, some play from Dustin, won by 11.

Potential Underachiever

Phenomenal from Big Deej, it was poetry in motion.

abff

DJ back up to world number 1. This is the 4th change in the past 6 weeks.

Whiplash85

abff wrote: »

DJ back up to world number 1. This is the 4th change in the past 6 weeks.

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

bren2001

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

If Colin Morikawa makes cuts, he'll overtake him once he gets close to the minimum divisor number. Can be done by the end of the year.

GreeBo

bren2001 wrote: »

If Colin Morikawa makes cuts, he'll overtake him once he gets close to the minimum divisor number. Can be done by the end of the year.

Only if DJ stops winning I guess?

DJ looks unbeatable when he is in this form.

Bubbaclaus

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Based on the way he is playing there wont be a change for a very long time. He has gone to a new level recently.

If he can keep up this level of play then agreed he will be #1 for a while. His form can be hit and miss though - he has missed 2 cuts since the restart and also had another few tournaments where he wasnt in contention on the weekend. Hard to know what DJ you are going to get any given week.

Tbf one. Of DJs mc came week after one of his earlier wins, his head really didn't look in it.

Week after he put a few balls in the water on a par 5 couldn't make a putt all round and then he "hurt his back" and withdrew

Think he had 5 or 6 water balls in those 3 rounds which is a bit of an outlier for most pro golfers no mind someone as good as DJ.

He should be rightly lauded for the victory and manner of it, clinic in ball striking.

To win by so. Much and not even be number 1 in putting is pretty amazing

bren2001

GreeBo wrote: »

Only if DJ stops winning I guess?

DJ looks unbeatable when he is in this form.

Well, if anyone wins week in week out, they'll stay on top easily enough.

Morikawa is on 298.18 points over 29 events giving him an average points total of 10.28.

DJ is 412.28/45 = 9.16.

So Colin would have to fall off significantly over his next 11 events before he reaches the minimum divisor to be caught by DJ or DJ would have to up his game (maintain winning, top 5's).

Hard not to see Morikawa go number 1 even for a short period.

Bubbaclaus

bren2001 wrote: »

Well, if anyone wins week in week out, they'll stay on top easily enough.

Morikawa is on 298.18 points over 29 events giving him an average points total of 10.28.

DJ is 412.28/45 = 9.16.

So Colin would have to fall off significantly over his next 11 events before he reaches the minimum divisor to be caught by DJ or DJ would have to up his game (maintain winning, top 5's).

Hard not to see Morikawa go number 1 even for a short period.

Not really a like for like comparison. If Morikawa had been a pro a couple years and was after reaching the 40 event divisor, he would have events nearly 2 years old with very little points left that would be reducing his average.

It's why the minimum divisor exists.

bren2001

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Not really a like for like comparison. If Morikawa had been a pro a couple years and was after reaching the 40 event divisor, he would have events nearly 2 years old with very little points left that would be reducing his average.

It's why the minimum divisor exists.

But he doesn't and that is the point. Every tournament he plays adds to his total, the same isn't true for DJ. He is on track to become world number 1. He only needs around 70 more points from his next 11 starts, i.e. he can average around 6.4, which is easily doable.

It's no guarantee he will become world number 1 but he is on course to be.

Bubbaclaus

bren2001 wrote: »

But he doesn't and that is the point. Every tournament he plays adds to his total, the same isn't true for DJ. He is on track to become world number 1. He only needs around 70 more points from his next 11 starts, i.e. he can average around 6.4, which is easily doable.

It's no guarantee he will become world number 1 but he is on course to be.

I agree he can certainly achieve it, I just disagree with your summary that he only needs 70 points in his next 11 events to achieve it. He will have points starting to drop off as they get older and DJ will be picking up points of his own.

bren2001

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I agree he can certainly achieve it, I just disagree with your summary that he only needs 70 points in his next 11 events to achieve it. He will have points starting to drop off as they get older and DJ will be picking up points of his own.

What events does he have to drop off? He's only played 29 counting events. His current total is divided by 40 and will continue to be until he hits 41 events.

DJ may gain points but he may also lose points as tournaments will drop off for him. Each tournament Colin plays in definitely adds to his total which is a brilliant advantage to have.

abff

bren2001 wrote: »

What events does he have to drop off? He's only played 29 counting events. His current total is divided by 40 and will continue to be until he hits 41 events.

DJ may gain points but he may also lose points as tournaments will drop off for him. Each tournament Colin plays in definitely adds to his total which is a brilliant advantage to have.

I’m not sure you fully understand how the ranking system works.

The points won in a tournament have a weighting applied depending on how many weeks ago they were earned. If it’s within the previous 13 weeks, the weighting is 100%. This weighting then reduces on a uniform basis to zero over the following 92 weeks. The weeks when the ranking was frozen are excluded when calculating the weighting.

So, while Morikawa will continue to have points counting for those 29 events until he has played another 11 ranking events, the weighting applied to those tournaments that are more than 13 weeks old will reduce each week and the weighting applied to more recent tournaments will start to reduce when they reach the 13 week mark.

Also, those of DJ’s results that are close to 2 years old will start to fall out of the calculation. As these events currently have a very low weighting, the fact that they disappear from the calculation helps to mitigate the fall in weighting being applied to the other events he has played is.

When things are close at the top, a combination of the above factors can lead to a change in who is at the top in weeks in which neither golfer plays.

bren2001

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

tobsey

bren2001 wrote: »

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

The PGA has had a massive effect on Morikowa’s ranking though. His average was 7 until that. He was on a march up the rankings alright but he’ll need another win in the next few months to reach the top. Or be a lot more consistent with regular top 10s.

bren2001

tobsey wrote: »

The PGA has had a massive effect on Morikowa’s ranking though. His average was 7 until that. He was on a march up the rankings alright but he’ll need another win in the next few months to reach the top. Or be a lot more consistent with regular top 10s.

By equal measures, DJs win had a massive effect on his ranking brought him from 7.6113 to 9.1618.

If he can maintain that 7, he's there or thereabouts at #1 assuming everyone else plays similarly to their historical form. There's also big tournaments ahead with a high SOF coefficient so plenty of points on offer.

abff

bren2001 wrote: »

Cheers but I'm aware how the rankings work.

If Colin and DJ perform similarly over the next 11 events, Colin is world number 1. It's mathematically likely Colin will be #1, that's all I was saying in response to a poster saying DJ will be #1 for a long time.

I decided to project the rankings forward by 14 weeks to end November. For simplicity, I assumed both DJ and CM would play in 11 ranking events between now and then.

If they both earn the same number of points from those tournaments, then DJ will still be ahead of CM if the total points earned by each of them is 90 or less and CM will be ahead if it’s 90 or more. Of course, there’s also the possibility that someone else will overtake both of them.

If I project things out another 4 weeks to the year end rankings and still assume 11 tournaments each and the same number of points each, then the cut off for determining which of them is ahead remains at 90 points. This is due to the interaction between DJ losing more points but having one less counting tournament.

Given that on recent form, both players can be expected to pick up more than 90 points in total over their next 11 tournaments, your assertion that CM will move ahead of DJ if they achieve similar results is not unreasonable.

But the likelihood is that one of them will outperform the other and whoever that is will probably finish ahead, although DJ would need to do a bit better than CM overall if they both continue playing at or near their current level. For example, if CM were to pick up 150 points, DJ would need to earn 159 points to stay ahead of him.

Should be an interesting few months. And you can’t rule Rahm and JT out of the picture, or Rory if he can get his act together (which seems unlikely, based on his recent form).