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Towards a United Ireland

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    #782
    glic71rods46t0
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭glic71rods46t0


    I think there is a battle for the hearts and minds of the nationalist middle classes - working class nationalists have little to lose and wil sign up for UI.
    The middle classes however have a lot to risk in change to the constitutional status of NI. However, the intended normalisation of NI was intended to be achieved by way of a "shared future" but the PUL community are displaying an unwillingness to share anything - this may win over middle class nationalists to seeing a UI as the best way to achieve cultural equality


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    #783
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    Yes, when its an actual election rather than a random survey of individuals with no sources disclosed. Here in this mock election we have sources disclosed which is the local community in that area.



    Its supposed to be run by one of the universities. They are not a reputable polling agency like our Red C.

    They have consistently got the level of support for both SF and DUP wrong. Not just wrong but way wrong. For example they had SF on 11% when in fact they got about 28% support, similar for the DUP. Thats their credibility shattered.
    At least now we have an indicator of the true level of support for an UI within the Nationalist community, it may not keep high at 95% if the entire community was polled in the same way but you can be guaranteed its high.

    ''when its an actual election'' , are you joking ?

    No one is disputing support is high within the Nationalist community. The point is that in an effectively 50/50 situation every % point against UI in effect counts as double . So even at 95% support that missing 5% translates as 45% for 55% against. And I am sure across the region that 95% just won't hold up.


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    #784
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    marienbad wrote: »
    ''when its an actual election'' , are you joking ?

    No one is disputing support is high within the Nationalist community.

    They have disputed it on boards for years, its usually the posters who have a pro-UK viewpoint and use the Uni survey as "evidence". The recent mock election within the Nationalist community is concrete evidence that support for a UI is quite high.


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    #785
    junder
    Registered Users Posts: 2,706 ✭✭✭junder


    gurramok wrote: »
    They have disputed it on boards for years, its usually the posters who have a pro-UK viewpoint and use the Uni survey as "evidence". The recent mock election within the Nationalist community is concrete evidence that support for a UI is quite high.

    In crossmaglen and the creggan


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    #786
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    They have disputed it on boards for years, its usually the posters who have a pro-UK viewpoint and use the Uni survey as "evidence". The recent mock election within the Nationalist community is concrete evidence that support for a UI is quite high.

    Are you saying the support for a UI has not declined in the nationalist community in recent years ?


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    #787
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    marienbad wrote: »
    Are you saying the support for a UI has not declined in the nationalist community in recent years ?

    It has not declined much at all judging on this mock election poll, support looks solidly high, its certainly not down to 35%!!


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    #788
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    It has not declined much at all judging on this mock election poll, support looks solidly high, its certainly not down to 35%!!

    Whatever about 35% do you believe it is substantially down or are you placing all your faith in this ''mock election poll'' as you call it ?


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    #789
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    marienbad wrote: »
    Whatever about 35% do you believe it is substantially down or are you placing all your faith in this ''mock election poll'' as you call it ?

    I just told you the support looks solidly high.


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    #790
    feargale
    Registered Users Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    OK. If I had heard nothing about the methodology I would have thought that the truth lay somewhere between both polls. Gurramok has raised questions about the Life and Time poll which have not been addressed here. Re the Crossmaglen poll, if I were a supporter of e.g. Jackie Healy Rae and I wanted him to be president of Ireland, I'm sure I could get the desired result if I organised a poll of 1000 people or so confined to his native Kilgarvan, where his support would be strongest.
    I'm at a loss to know why Sinn Fein want a border poll at this time since it's doomed to fail - unless the idea is to keep the UI issue alive. Incidentally, subject to the same reservation, I think Alex Salmond has likewise miscalculated re Scotland, though he can, perhaps, entertain stronger hopes than those favouring UI.


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    #791
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    I just told you the support looks solidly high.

    I am afraid you are living in dream world if you are basing the belief on this ''mock election''


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    #792
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    marienbad wrote: »
    I am afraid you are living in dream world if you are basing the belief on this ''mock election''

    To you it maybe, to me its conclusive proof that the will is still high.


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    #793
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    junder wrote: »
    In crossmaglen and the creggan

    Crossmaglen and upper creggan. upper creggan is in louth (partly), the creggan is in derry


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    #794
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    feargale wrote: »
    OK. If I had heard nothing about the methodology I would have thought that the truth lay somewhere between both polls. Gurramok has raised questions about the Life and Time poll which have not been addressed here. Re the Crossmaglen poll, if I were a supporter of e.g. Jackie Healy Rae and I wanted him to be president of Ireland, I'm sure I could get the desired result if I organised a poll of 1000 people or so confined to his native Kilgarvan, where his support would be strongest.
    I'm at a loss to know why Sinn Fein want a border poll at this time since it's doomed to fail - unless the idea is to keep the UI issue alive. Incidentally, subject to the same reservation, I think Alex Salmond has likewise miscalculated re Scotland, though he can, perhaps, entertain stronger hopes than those favouring UI.

    youre missing the point of the cross/creggan border poll. it wasnt about saying theres a desire for reunification across the whole country. it was about showing theres a desire for reunification in cross/creggan. its now up to other areas to hold their own polls, wether they return yes or no votes. the point is this is something that should be decided by the irish people, not some brainless tory elected by the people of chipping barnet


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    #795
    junder
    Registered Users Posts: 2,706 ✭✭✭junder


    Crooked Jack wrote: »
    Crossmaglen and upper creggan. upper creggan is in louth (partly), the creggan is in derry

    Thanks for the geography lesson, doesn't change anything though


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    #796
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    To you it maybe, to me its conclusive proof that the will is still high.

    And that is how most elections are lost, when interested parties are seeing what they want to see and not on what they need to see.


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    #797
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    junder wrote: »
    Thanks for the geography lesson, doesn't change anything though

    You didnt even know where the poll took place. you obviously havent even looked into it at all. yet you feel qualified to pass judgement on something you clearly know nothing about


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    #798
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    marienbad wrote: »
    And that is how most elections are lost, when interested parties are seeing what they want to see and not on what they need to see.

    The Nationalist community have spoken in this particular poll, why have you a problem with the wishes of the Nationalist people?


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    #799
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    gurramok wrote: »
    The Nationalist community have spoken in this particular poll, why have you a problem with the wishes of the Nationalist people?

    exactly, nobody, at any stage, was pretending that this poll would reflect anything other than the wishes of the people of crossmaglen/creggan upper.


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    #800
    marienbad
    Registered Users Posts: 9,463 ✭✭✭marienbad


    gurramok wrote: »
    The Nationalist community have spoken in this particular poll, why have you a problem with the wishes of the Nationalist people?


    How do you deduce that I have a problem with the 'Nationalist people' ?


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    #801
    feargale
    Registered Users Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    Crooked Jack wrote: »
    youre missing the point of the cross/creggan border poll. it wasnt about saying theres a desire for reunification across the whole country. it was about showing theres a desire for reunification in cross/creggan.
    OK. I'll wait until all the results are in.
    Crooked Jack wrote: »
    its now up to other areas to hold their own polls, wether they return yes or no votes. the point is this is something that should be decided by the irish people,

    By the Irish people North AND South, right? A majority in both territories before any change, as per the GFA. Yes?


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    #802
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    feargale wrote: »
    OK. I'll wait until all the results are in.


    By the Irish people North AND South, right? A majority in both territories before any change, as per the GFA. Yes?
    Obviously. that was highlighted by the cross border nature of the cross/creggan poll


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    #803
    Dunrum Arbella.
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8 ✭Dunrum Arbella.


    Sinn Fein and the Republican movement getting rather desperate. Possibly the most ridiculous poll to have taken place in years. I wonder how many Protestants actually voted in this poll? Irrelevant anyway as the support for a United Ireland is low.


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    #804
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    Dunrum Arbella. wrote: »
    Sinn Fein and the Republican movement getting rather desperate. Possibly the most ridiculous poll to have taken place in years. I wonder how many Protestants actually voted in this poll? Irrelevant anyway as the support for a United Ireland is low.

    Sooo....ignore actual poll but then claim support is low based on...what...yourself?
    Somebody is getting rather desperate alright.


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    #805
    Dunrum Arbella.
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8 ✭Dunrum Arbella.


    Crooked Jack wrote: »
    Sooo....ignore actual poll but then claim support is low based on...what...yourself?
    Somebody is getting rather desperate alright.
    Most opinion polls. Catholic support for the Union at a record high.


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    #806
    LordSutch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Crooked Jack wrote: »
    Obviously. that was highlighted by the cross border nature of the cross/creggan poll

    Can you provide a link to this POLL please.


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    #807
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 10,950 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    That poll that ran in Crossmaglen was discussed on Pat Kenny prior to it being run. The way they described it was that people living in the area could 'register' to vote, and then vote on the day. In essence it's a self-selecting poll, which means that statistically and for polling purposes it's useless. If the results were 95% of people voted yes, it simply means that 95% of the people in an area (not a cross-section or anything) who decided they wanted to vote, voted yes. I would imagine that if you were a likely no voter in an actual vote, then you wouldn't vote - hence the artificially high result.


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    #808
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    Dunrum Arbella. wrote: »
    Most opinion polls. Catholic support for the Union at a record high.

    Oh you mean the daft ones latched upon by the BBC and Belfast Tele with the loaded questions? Riiight.
    So you think a poll where they ring someone up out of the blue and go "would you vote for a united Ireland tomorrow" with no discussion, no debate, no information, has more merit than one which was launched with a month of events that examined what was meant by a UI, what it would mean, how it would work etc...

    There's only one poll that matters and the brits and unionists seem terrified of having it.


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    #809
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Can you provide a link to this POLL please.

    Google it man, there's a world of stuff out there on it.


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    #810
    Crooked Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 5,678 ✭✭✭Crooked Jack


    dulpit wrote: »
    That poll that ran in Crossmaglen was discussed on Pat Kenny prior to it being run. The way they described it was that people living in the area could 'register' to vote, and then vote on the day. In essence it's a self-selecting poll, which means that statistically and for polling purposes it's useless. If the results were 95% of people voted yes, it simply means that 95% of the people in an area (not a cross-section or anything) who decided they wanted to vote, voted yes. I would imagine that if you were a likely no voter in an actual vote, then you wouldn't vote - hence the artificially high result.

    Pollsters visited every house in the district three times in the run up to the election. Anyone who wanted to vote, whichever way, had ample opportunity.
    Of the 3000 voters in the district, over 2500 were on the register. So a huge majority of people clearly intended on voting one way or the other.
    The poll has never been portrayed as reflecting anything other than the views of the people in Crossmaglen/Creggan Upper and given that the whole thing was presided over by a team of impartial and international adjudicators I cant see how its authenticity or accuracy can be questioned.
    7 per cent of people voted no, the no voters clearly werent ignoring the poll.
    This poll was run to a professional standard, debates, talks and information evenings were all held in the run up to the poll to allow people to make informed decisions. The success of this poll is as much in the fact that it has gotten everyone talking about it and the debate about a united Ireland as it is in the overwhelming Yes vote returned.


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    #811
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    This post has been deleted.


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