May 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

If we could use Belfast and St Angelo instead of Dublin and Casement, the day might compete, but we can't so it won't.

Some might say Titanic fail, and believe it or not there's an even better pun than you think buried in that. One day I shall explain.

M.T. Cranium

The rainfall data have now been updated with the exception of Dublin on 18th and 19th (would not expect much if any to be added from those). As the 18th narrowly missed third place, the estimated points have been adjusted, it now seems uncertain that any day from now to 31st will qualify so the table shows points that are provisionally scored under the rules by contestants closest to the five wettest days so far.

1.....16.0 ... 3 points ... no guesses
2.....10.5 ... 5 points ... no guesses
3...112.4 (3) ... 7 points for Jerry S, Joe P, JohnMac, Mickger844posts
4.......7.5 ... 5 points ... no guesses
5.....23.4 ... 4 points ... no guesses
6.....18.9 ... 6 points ... Pauldry
7.....91.2 ... 8 points ... no guesses
8...156.2 ... (1) ... 10 points ... Bsal
9...145.5 ... (2) .... 8 points ... no guesses
10... 49.5 ... 5 points? ... no guesses
11... 56.0 ... 3 points? ... no guesses
12... 54.4 ... 1 point? ... DOCARCH, rameire
13... 57.3 ... no guesses
14... 60.9 ... jd
15... 22.7 ... 2 points for omicron, dasa29
16... 89.6 ... (5) ... 5 points for H2UMrsRobinson
17... 29.3 ... 3 points for jpmarn, lostinashford, Con Sensus, Seafields
18.. 103.1 (4)
19... 22.0 ... 3 points for nilhg, harps, delw
20... 20.3 ... kindredspirit
21... homolumo, dacogawa, 200motels, okla
22. ... Gonzo
23. ... Hammer Archer
24. ... MTC, snowstreams
25.
26. ... talkabout, Rickylovesuall
27. ... Tae laidir
28. ... waterways
29. ... bejubby, traecy1
30.
31. ... Rocky Bay
_____________________________________

At this rate, points may be increased slightly to meet the minimum progression laid out in the rules, but perhaps that won't be necessary if a future date provides some points.

M.T. Cranium

IMT is dead on 10.0 C and rainfall about 90% of normal, sunshine has picked up the pace somewhat and is closing in on 100% now.

The above table can no longer be edited but the last few days have all seen minimal amounts near 20 mm total.

Rikand

any weather stations for the rain in the north of the country ? There is some absolutely sick looking colours crossing Donegal this evening

M.T. Cranium

I will update the rainfall table after Monday's data are finalized. The 24th was the driest day so far with a meagre 0.4 mm, then Saturday 25th had 29.2 mm. Where I said above that recent days were quite dry near 20 mm, that should read 2.0 mm, my table does not actually have any decimals in it but anyway, the main deal is now waiting to see if Monday or Tuesday can edge out even 5th place. The problem for Monday is that some of the rain will be wasted on Sunday's total before midnight and I think it's midnight standard time as 00z to 00z is actually the climatological calendar day. So that's an extra hour wasted, there's no way Sunday will make the top five. Monday could and so could Tuesday.

Joe Public

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

any weather stations for the rain in the north of the country ? There is some absolutely sick looking colours crossing Donegal this evening

Use the older Met e rainfall radar http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar-old.asp as the colours are not as sick

Tae laidir

Praying for rain today.
This competition is having a weird effect on me!

Joe Public

Tae laidir wrote: »

Praying for rain today.
This competition is having a weird effect on me!

Did you miss the bit all last night and this morning?

Tae laidir

A mere 13.1 in Ballyhaise!
Not enough for 5th.

M.T. Cranium

27th was missing Oak Park when I checked, without that it is sitting 3rd place with 133.4 mm, could move up. Also today is getting up there.

Monday would have beaten out the 8th and 9th if it could have combined with the rain that fell Sunday evening (Sunday was 35.4 mm).

M.T. Cranium

We have some missing data available now and this is the complete report on the bonus question.


1.....16.0 ...
2.....10.5 ... 3 points ... no guesses
3...112.4 (4) ... 6 points for Jerry S, Joe P, JohnMac, Mickger844posts
4.......7.5 ... 3 points ... no guesses
5.....23.4 ... 4 points ... no guesses
6.....18.9 ... 6 points ... Pauldry
7.....91.2 (6) 8 points ... no guesses
8...156.2 (1) 10 points ... Bsal
9...145.5 (2) 9 points ... no guesses
10... 49.5 ... 7 points ... no guesses
11... 56.0 ... 5 points ... no guesses
12... 54.4 ... 3 points ... DOCARCH, rameire
13... 57.3 ... no guesses
14... 60.9 ... jd
15... 22.7 ... (1 points) for omicron, dasa29
16... 89.6 (7) (2 points) for H2UMrsRobinson
17... 29.3 ... 3 points for jpmarn, lostinashford, Con Sensus, Seafields
18.. 103.7 (5)
19.... 2.3 ... 3 points for nilhg, harps, delw
20.... 2.0 ... kindredspirit
21.... 2.1 ... homolumo, dacogawa, 200motels, okla
22.... 2.6 ... Gonzo
23.... 9.4 ... Hammer Archer
24.... 0.4 ... 2 pts for ... MTC, snowstreams
25... 29.2
26... 35.4 ... 6 pts for ... talkabout, Rickylovesuall
27.. 143.8 (3) ... 8 pts for Tae laidir
28... 41.7 ... 6 pts for waterways
29... 18.2 ... 4 pts for ... bejubby, traecy1
30.... 0.7
31.... 6.5 ... Rocky Bay
_____________________________________

So the 27th just missed 3rd place by 1.7 mm, only makes one point difference to those close to the dates involved. I think the points will be adjusted upward in the bottom half of the table, one extra point for 5th within one day, and anyone who guessed a non-qualifying day that had 40 mm or more will get two points and anyone who guessed a non-qualifying day that had 20-40 mm will get one point. The table has these new points in brackets.

In other news the IMT stands on 10.2 C may finish on 10.3, rainfall has slowed down and is probably a touch below 100% and sunshine has benefitted greatly in recent days, will speculate a 105% finish. The scoring will be delayed by the bank holiday to 4th of June, I think.

rameire

for those like me who forget

June forecast contest

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056958542

M.T. Cranium

IMT appears to have finished on 10.2 ... my estimate for the rainfall to be checked against Monthly Summary is about 105% with the west and north being quite wet and the southeast rather dry, the southwest near normal.

We'll have to wait until Tuesday 4th to do any further validations as that's when the Monthly Summary is likely to appear.

M.T. Cranium

So, the jury has returned after a long deliberation, and these are the verdicts:

IMT 10.2 C

MAX 20.4 C (Mountdillon 29th and Dublin 30th)

MIN --0.5 C (Dublin 17th)

PRC 112% of normal

SUN 93% of normal

the bonus question was resolved earlier, see post 72 above.

Well then, time to do some scoring and that will include a roundup for the spring portion of the contest.

M.T. Cranium

Forecaster ___________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN _ wet day

Actual values ________ 10.2 __ 20.4 __ -0.5 __ 112 __ 093 _ 8,9,27 ___ TOTALS
___________________________________________________________________

delw _______________ 23 ___ 14 ___ 15 ___ 10 ___ 10 ___ 03 _____ 75
Bsal________________ 08 ___ 17 ___ 17 ___ 12 ___ 09 ___ 10 _____ 73
dasa29 _____________ 23 ___ 16 ___ 15 ___ 09 ___ 05 ___ 01 _____ 69
omicron_____________ 16 ___ 14 ___ 15 ___ 11 ___ 09 ___ 01 _____ 66
John mac____________ 22 ___ 00 ___ 14 ___ 12 ___ 10 ___ 06 _____ 64
lostinashford_________ 15 ___ 13 ___ 17 ___ 03 ___ 07 ___ 03 _____ 58
snowstreams_________ 23 ___ 00 ___ 19 ___ 06 ___ 07 ___ 02 _____ 57
rameire _____________ 23 ___ 04 ___ 15 ___ 06 ___ 05 ___ 03 _____ 56
jpmarn _____________ 12 ___ 01*___17 ___ 14 ___ 07 ___ 03 _____ 54
Tae laidir____________ 17 ___ 00 ___ 14 ___ 08 ___ 07 ___ 08 _____ 54

Con Sensus__________ 16 ___ 01*___ 19 ___ 08 ___ 07 ___ 03 _____ 54

Harps ______________ 18 ___ 00 ___ 19 ___ 04 ___ 09 ___ 03 _____ 53
Jerry Seinfeld ________ 19 ___ 00 ___ 15 ___ 06 ___ 06 ___ 06 _____ 52
Gonzo ______________ 13 ___ 02* __ 12 ___ 15 ___ 10 ___ 00 _____ 52
Pauldry _____________ 17 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 12 ___ 09 ___ 06 _____ 51
seafields ____________ 22 ___ 16 ___ 00 ___ 04 ___ 05 ___ 03 _____ 50
200motels ___________ 19 ___ 00 ___ 17 ___ 06 ___ 07 ___ 00 _____ 49
M.T. Cranium_________ 20 ___ 02 ___ 00 ___ 14 ___ 09 ___ 02 _____ 47
Hammer Archer_______ 10 ___ 19 ___ 04 ___ 06 ___ 07 ___ 00 _____ 46
Rickylovesuall ________ 17 ___ 04 ___ 05 ___ 08 ___ 05 ___ 06 _____ 45
okla________________ 24 ___ 01*___ 07 ___ 07 ___ 06 ___ 00 _____ 45
nilhg _______________ 14 ___ 00 ___ 04 ___ 13 ___ 10 ___ 03 _____ 44
Talkabout ___________ 17 ___ 00 ___ 08 ___ 08 ___ 05 ___ 06 _____ 44
kindredspirit _________ 17 ___ 02*__ 10 ___ 07 ___ 06 ___ 00 _____ 42
waterways___________ 13 ___ 00 ___ 05 ___ 14 ___ 03 ___ 06 _____ 41
Rocky Bay ___________ 15 ___ 06 ___ 15 ___ 00 ___ 04 ___ 00 _____ 40
H2UMrsRobinson______ 00 ___ 10 ___ 14 ___ 04 ___ 09 ___ 02 _____ 39
dacogawa ___________ 13 ___ 00 ___ 11 ___ 08 ___ 06 ___ 00 _____ 38
Mickger844posts______ 09 ___ 00 ___ 11 ___ 05 ___ 06 ___ 06 _____ 37
jd__________________ 14 ___ 00 ___ 07 ___ 07 ___ 08 ___ 00 _____ 36
homolumo___________ 08 ___ 00 ___ 05 ___ 11 ___ 07 ___ 00 _____ 31
DOCARCH ___________ 09 ___ 01*__ 00 ___ 09 ___ 08 ___ 03 _____ 30
traecy.1_____________ 12 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 06 ___ 07 ___ 04 _____ 29
Bejubby (-10)________ 00 ___ 14 ___ 00 ___ 09 ___ 08 ___ 04 _____ 35-10=25
Joe Public ___________ 08 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 04 ___ 03 ___ 06 _____ 21
_______________________________________________________________________
* lower end of MAX scoring needed a boost from minimum progression rule

Congrats to delw, Bsal and dasa29 for leading the table in May.

Annual then seasonal scores up soon.

M.T. Cranium

2013 Annual Scoring race

(with spring seasonal results)
___________________________

Forecaster __________ J __ F __ M __ A __ M ___ Total ___ Spring (MAM)


dasa29____________ 35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 _ 69 ___ 310 ___ 199 (1)
Tae laidir __________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 _ 54 ___ 292 ___ 151 (6)
harps _____________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 _ 53 ___ 282 ___ 148 (7t)

Con Sensus ________ 75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 _ 54 ___ 282 ___ 138

Jerry Seinfeld_______ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 _ 52 ___ 280 ___ 157 (4)
delw______________ 46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 _ 75 ___ 277 ___ 175 (2)
homolumo _________ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 _ 31 ___ 262 ___ 121
Pauldry ___________ 59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 _ 51 ___ 257 ___ 138
Bsal ______________ 54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 _ 73 ___ 253 ___ 164 (3)
200motels_________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 _ 49 ___ 252 ___ 137
kindredspirit _______ 66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 _ 42 ___ 248 ___ 148 (7t)
okla ______________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 _ 45 ___ 247 ___ 152 (5)
waterways _________ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 _ 41 ___ 234 ___ 107
omicron ___________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 _ 66 ___ 234 ___ 138
mickger844posts ____ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 _ 37 ___ 233 ___ 131
rameire____________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 _ 56 ___ 231 ___ 142 (9)
DOCARCH__________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 _ 30 ___ 231 ___ 139 (10)
talkabout __________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 _ 44 ___ 229 ___ 119
nilhg _____________ 44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 _ 44 ___ 226 ___ 135
dacogawa__________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 _ 38 ___ 223 ___ 116
traecy.1 ___________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 _ 29 ___ 219 ___ 104
Hammer Archer _____ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 _ 46 ___ 215 ____ 92
jd ________________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 _ 36 ___ 212 ____ 96
Rickylovesuall_______ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 _ 45 ___ 208 ___ 119
M.T. Cranium _______ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 _ 47 ___ 203 ___ 130
Joe Public __________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 _ 21 ___ 198 ___ 115
lostinashford _______ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 _ 58 ___ 196 ___ 126
jpmarn ____________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 _ 54 ___ 195 ___ 112
Strasser ___________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 _ -- ___ 189 ____ 82
Seafields __________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 _ 50 ___ 183 ___ 115
H2UMrsRobinson ____ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 _ 39 ___ 182 ___ 105
snowstreams________ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 _ 57 ___ 176 ___ 122
John mac___________ 50 _ 23 _ 21 _ -- _ 64 ___ 158 ____ 85
Bejubby ___________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 _ 25 ___ 155 ___ 109
Rebelbrowser _______ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 _ -- ___ 154 ____ 88
cherryghost ________ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- _ -- ___ 150 ____ 21

____________________________________________

Two entries, ineligible for annual contest

jambofc 71 (Jan), 54 (Feb) 125
nabber 69 (Feb) 38 (Mar) 107
dexter647 32 (Feb) 63 (Apr) 95
Gonzo 30 (Mar), 52 (May) 82 __ 82 spr
MiNdGaM3 30 (Jan) 32 (Feb) 62

(one entry)

E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
baraca 50 (Feb)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
Rocky Bay 43 (Jan)
NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)

M.T. Cranium

Seasonal points winter plus spring

The points scored so far in winter and spring portions of the contest (see Feb contest for the winter summary) in total:

homolumo (10,0)____ 10
dasa29 (0,10) ______ 10
harps (7,2) _________ 9
Jerry Seinfeld (4,5)___ 9
delw (0,7) __________ 7
waterways (6,0)_____ 6
Bsal (0,6) __________ 6
jambofc (5,0) _______ 5
Tae laidir (2,3) ______ 5
okla (0,4) __________ 4
Pauldry (3,0)________ 3
kindredspirit (1,2)____ 3
DOCARCH (1,1)______ 2
Hammer Archer(1,0)__ 1
rameire (0,1) _______ 1

Congrats to dasa29 for leading both the annual and (tied with homolumo) seasonal contests so far. Tae laidir, harps and Jerry Seinfeld are doing well in both also.


Con Sensus would have 7 from winter and 7 in total (not counted in ranking).