Tablets will be dead in 5 years...

Allyall

I was just reading the news, and i saw this article in The Telegraph quoting Thorsten Heins from Blackberry.
LINK

Large screens will replace tablets within five years
Mr Heins said that “In five years I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore. Maybe a big screen in your workspace, but not a tablet as such. Tablets themselves are not a good business model.”
Tablets have powered Apple and increasingly Samsung to huge profits, so Mr Heins’ suggestions will be met with incredulity in some quarters. But diminishing profit margins on iPads could also indicate that the market will become less attractive over time.

I totally agree. I have seen between 50 -100 People in the last year and a half buying Tablets, and out of them, the majority have been turned into Kids Toys, with a few becoming Breakfast Table Newspapers.

Anyway, It got me wondering, if this turns out to be true, where next for Apple?
I doubt they can continue making an iPhone 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 using the same model/Strategy they have been. They will rapidly get blown out of the market, even the most loyal 'fanboy' would have to agree.

I'm not having a dig here, but Apple have fought for patents for their shape.
They have sued Companies over patents, some of which have a very short shelf life (But massive profit). I doubt many Companies will give Apple much or any leeway in the future.

That aside, It'll be interesting to see where Apple go to next with Steve Jobs gone. I personally think they've already made a few mistakes, and they've already changed their mind on a few things that Steve Jobs stated he didn't want to see.
Rumours abound of internal conflicts, and iPhone sales slumping, and expected even more, as rumours of iPhone 6 now are reported to be hurting iPhone 5 sales.

Okay, this went on longer than i had intended, but curious to see anybody else's opinions on this.

listermint

Allyall wrote: »

I was just reading the news, and i saw this article in The Telegraph quoting Thorsten Heins from Blackberry.
LINK


I totally agree. I have seen between 50 -100 People in the last year and a half buying Tablets, and out of them, the majority have been turned into Kids Toys, with a few becoming Breakfast Table Newspapers.

Anyway, It got me wondering, if this turns out to be true, where next for Apple?
I doubt they can continue making an iPhone 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 using the same model/Strategy they have been. They will rapidly get blown out of the market, even the most loyal 'fanboy' would have to agree.

I'm not having a dig here, but Apple have fought for patents for their shape.
They have sued Companies over patents, some of which have a very short shelf life (But massive profit). I doubt many Companies will give Apple much or any leeway in the future.

That aside, It'll be interesting to see where Apple go to next with Steve Jobs gone. I personally think they've already made a few mistakes, and they've already changed their mind on a few things that Steve Jobs stated he didn't want to see.
Rumours abound of internal conflicts, and iPhone sales slumping, and expected even more, as rumours of iPhone 6 now are reported to be hurting iPhone 5 sales.

Okay, this went on longer than i had intended, but curious to see anybody else's opinions on this.

I dont know anyone with a Tablet that doesnt use it themselves.

None of them use it as a coaster.

Evidence is very anecdotal.

galwayjohn89

I used to think tablets were a fad but since I got one I love it. Wouldn't use it much around the house at all but when travelling it comes with me the whole time.

Slutmonkey57b

Hein doesn't seem very clear on what this "big screen" will be, or do. If he's suggesting that your phone will drive the screen, I'd be dubious.

As for tablets, they're replacing pc's and laptops in the home. What will be dead in 5 years is the traditional boxed pc.

Allyall

I'd say he's referring to "Phablets".

Really? I thought most people were bored with them.

Most people i know tell me they are. (I'd say it's about 50/50 iPads and Android)
Some say it's just a massive remote control now.
Others (as said) say their children use them for playing games, or watching Movies/Youtube.

"Phablets" (I hate that word) are a perfect size to carry around with you, and use as a phone/organiser/document reader.
Also as a product of leisure, i.e. Camera/Radio/Movie player.

And because they have 3G built in, you can use them anywhere.
Tablets (Most Tablets) are limited to where you can bring them for many reasons.

batistuta9

Slutmonkey57b wrote: »

Hein doesn't seem very clear on what this "big screen" will be, or do. If he's suggesting that your phone will drive the screen, I'd be dubious.

As for tablets, they're replacing pc's and laptops in the home. What will be dead in 5 years is the traditional boxed pc.

I think it'll be laptop's that'll suffer the most/die off, most people don't really need them

Tablets are better suited to more people's needs i think. browser, thus ability to stream media, apps for sites/anything, better portability & more people will start to access their media of NAS from home too

There'll still be a place for 1 PC/Mac in the home but days of everyone getting a laptop are gone i think

Laptops will still have a place but it'll be niche

listermint

batistuta9 wrote: »

I think it'll be laptop's that'll suffer the most/die off, most people don't really need them

Tablets are better suited to more people's needs i think. browser, thus ability to stream media, apps for sites/anything, better portability & more people will start to access their media of NAS from home too

There'll still be a place for 1 PC/Mac in the home but days of everyone getting a laptop are gone i think

Laptops will still have a place but it'll be niche

Doubt it,

Once again I know of no one that has purchased a desktop PC in the last 4 Years. Everyone has bought a Laptop. Again my evidence is anecdotal but so is yours.

Why would someone choose a desktop over a laptop for home ?

goz83

Allyall wrote: »

I'd say he's referring to "Phablets".

That's an assumption.

Allyall wrote: »

Really? I thought most people were bored with them.

Most people i know tell me they are. (I'd say it's about 50/50 iPads and Android)

Most? People say alot of things. Lots of it is just BS.

Allyall wrote: »

Some say it's just a massive remote control now.

Well if that were true, they could buy a big remote control for about €10 and sell their tablet for multiples of that. Plus, the remote would not need to be charged every other day.

Allyall wrote: »

Others (as said) say their children use them for playing games, or watching Movies/Youtube.

Maybe, while supervised, or in the hands of kids who are not likely to use it as a frisbee.

Allyall wrote: »

"Phablets" (I hate that word) are a perfect size to carry around with you, and use as a phone/organiser/document reader.
Also as a product of leisure, i.e. Camera/Radio/Movie player.

And because they have 3G built in, you can use them anywhere.

I don't know where this Phablet word has come from, or what it refers to. I can't be arsed looking tbh. At a guess, I would say it's a smaller tablet?

Allyall wrote: »

Tablets (Most Tablets) are limited to where you can bring them for many reasons.

Really? Why is that?

I have an iPad mini and I find it very, very handy. It is not used as a coaster, remote control, or any other such nonsense. The handy bit for me is a bigger screen so I can make better use of my iPhone. I kinda like that I can read my emails without squinting on a small screen.

It will be coming on holiday with me, so I can get a little bit of work done. That in itself makes it worth the money.

Arawn

listermint wrote: »

Doubt it,

Once again I know of no one that has purchased a desktop PC in the last 4 Years. Everyone has bought a Laptop. Again my evidence is anecdotal but so is yours.

Why would someone choose a desktop over a laptop for home ?

Gaming pcs will always trump gaming laptops.

Zimmerframe

What he really meant was after our (Blackberry's) doomed tablet which nobody bought except in the firesales, we might leave it to Android and Apple.

galwayjohn89

sugarman wrote: »

Its just a phase, like the whole 'netbook' fad a few years ago. Nobody uses them anymore, they dont even sell them!

I know of plenty of people who still use them.

http://www.pcworld.ie/category/Netbooks/2.5.0

Tenger

sugarman wrote: »

Its just a phase, like the whole 'netbook' fad a few years ago. Nobody uses them anymore, they dont even sell them!

Well I think the netbook was an attempt to fill a niche that was tablet shaped. They just didn't realise it at the time.

seamus

Phones will always be too small to do serious work on, tablets will always be too large to carry around as a pocket media device.

The market will divide somewhat to cater for people needs. Those who only need to browse and poke around have their phones. Those who may need to type up the odd document will have tablets, between 7 and 10 inch screens, with a fold-out keyboard. Not so much like the Surface, that's a bit of a behemoth, but imagine that the thin foldable cover on your iPad folded out into a keyboard, turning into a form of netbook.

For more powerful mobile working then you have laptops, and desktops will largely be confined to business and gaming use.

That's only in the medium-term in reality, 5 years at most. Who knows after that?

It's possible that Google Glass will usher in an age of "micro" devices. These devices can make use of a form of distributed computing, so that your "tablet" is effectively a zombie device, but when paired with your mobile device/google glass, adds some extra processing power and a touch-screen display. This would mean basically an end to having separate devices with separate installs and separate software.

Either that or someone figures out how to make a "foldable" device that has a 4-inch screen when you're on the move, but which you can "fold" out into a usable 10 inch screen.

Allyall

goz83 wrote: »

That's an assumption.

Most? People say alot of things. Lots of it is just BS.

Well, yes..

goz83 wrote: »

Well if that were true, they could buy a big remote control for about €10 and sell their tablet for multiples of that. Plus, the remote would not need to be charged every other day.

Yes, i agree, it still doesn't dismiss that a lot of people aren't using their tablets correctly, and are bored with them. Found them as a fun gadget, and quickly faded, as you can do everything on a phone now.

goz83 wrote: »

Maybe, while supervised, or in the hands of kids who are not likely to use it as a frisbee.

I doubt anyone is going to give it to a toddler and walk off, or a kid who is going throw it around.

goz83 wrote: »

I don't know where this Phablet word has come from, or what it refers to. I can't be arsed looking tbh. At a guess, I would say it's a smaller tablet?

Think Samsung Galaxy Note.
Large Phone/Small Tablet.

goz83 wrote: »

Really? Why is that?
I have an iPad mini and I find it very, very handy. It is not used as a coaster, remote control, or any other such nonsense. The handy bit for me is a bigger screen so I can make better use of my iPhone. I kinda like that I can read my emails without squinting on a small screen.
It will be coming on holiday with me, so I can get a little bit of work done. That in itself makes it worth the money.

Because of the 3GS. Most tablets don't have it built in, some tablets allow a USB dongle, and some charge extra for the 3G version.
You have to have WiFi on most Tablets, or Tether it to your phone if you can, which isn't a great alternative either.

seamus wrote: »

Either that or someone figures out how to make a "foldable" device that has a 4-inch screen when you're on the move, but which you can "fold" out into a usable 10 inch screen.

Remember this? http://www.myrolltop.com/
I wonder if it's still going..

With technology moving so fast since that was being conceived, i'd say it could be done a lot easier, flexiglass instead of sections.

Also does anyone remember the mozilla concept phone?
With Pico Projectors being built in to phones now, that may not be such a distant thought. Add an infrared laser projector and active pixel sensor etc.. I'd say That would kill tablets. It'd be like having a virtual tablet/TV in your pocket.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG3tLxEQEdg

robinph

I daily use a desktop, a large laptop, an ultrabook, a tablet and a smartphone.

They are all useful for different things, but you can't do proper work on a tablet or phone and some things I can't do easily on the ultrabook either. But I can't carry the desktop or large laptop around with me all day or when travelling so then the ultrabook gets used, unless travelling very light when I resort to the tablet and phone.

syklops

To be honest i think he is talking rubbish.

We have evolved from having a big screen in the home or office, to having a screen and many other devices, I can't see us going back to the one thing does everything. I think we will continue to have more and more devices.

Stavro Mueller

robinph wrote: »

I daily use a desktop, a large laptop, an ultrabook, a tablet and a smartphone.

They are all useful for different things, but you can't do proper work on a tablet or phone and some things I can't do easily on the ultrabook either. But I can't carry the desktop or large laptop around with me all day or when travelling so then the ultrabook gets used, unless travelling very light when I resort to the tablet and phone.

I've roughly the same set-up. If you have to work at a computer for hours on end like I do, a laptop would have your posture borked in no time at all. Unless you go get a docking station, a screen, a mouse, a keyboard... which is effectively turning your laptop back into a desktop again.

I'm a bit baffled by the poster who claimed that most people don't use their tablets after a while. I use mine every single day of my life and anyone I know who bought one is a regular user too. While they're no substitute for a proper computer, they're really useful in their own way.

And seeing as the guy who said this is from Blackberry, I'd be takig what he says with bagfuls of salt :pac:

batistuta9

listermint wrote: »

Doubt it,

Once again I know of no one that has purchased a desktop PC in the last 4 Years. Everyone has bought a Laptop. Again my evidence is anecdotal but so is yours.

Why would someone choose a desktop over a laptop for home ?

You're using evidence from people you know, I'm only making a prediction based on what i think

most people buy laptops as they see them as handier than a desktop, but they don't really need a laptop. A tablet would suffice for what they need & use them for

laptops like i said will still have a place but with people who really need them. They'll not be the default device for everyone like they're now

why would you choose a desktop for home? because desktop > laptop
if it's going to be used as the home device why get a laptop?

+ a rise of all in one desktops make them easier to fit in, than a tower, monitor.

A desktop, NAS & tablets will become what the majority use and laptops will be used by those who actually need one

Ardennes1944

My Ipad 1 is one of the best things Ive ever bought. Never went wrong on me and I use it heavily. If it broke in the morning Id buy another straight away.
Great for those who like to travel, but of course they'll never be able to beat a laptop for booking stuff or serious browsing

LFC Murphy

I found the exact opposite.... took mea year to "give up my laptop" at home when i first bought the tablet... however I since i embraced the tablet i wouldn't go back..

Use laptop at work though, tablet wouldn't cut it.

Tenger

Tenger wrote: »

Well I think the netbook was an attempt to fill a niche that was tablet shaped. They just didn't realise it at the time.

I love my netbook. I'm a freelance translator and it's perfect for carrying around in my handbag. Obviously I do the majority of my work at home on my laptop, but it's great to have a light, portable netbook with me at all times in case a short job comes through. You can't really do actual work on a tablet unless you get loads of attachments. I find them very fiddly. If I had the money, I'd make good use of all the different types of computers.

Desktop for majority of work at home
Laptop for work at home (moving from room to room, working in the garden etc)
Netbook for work on the go
Tablet for looking up information quickly (especially on public transport/planes/short trips away)

As for why anyone would need a desktop, they're just much more comfortable to use than a laptop - bigger screen, possibility of 2 screens, etc.

syklops

cymbaline wrote: »

I'm a bit baffled by the poster who claimed that most people don't use their tablets after a while. I use mine every single day of my life and anyone I know who bought one is a regular user too. While they're no substitute for a proper computer, they're really useful in their own way.

I reckon the people he is referring to are the types who bought an iPad because they were fashionable, but never had a need for them and never got into the habit of using them everyday.

Gambas

listermint wrote: »

Why would someone choose a desktop over a laptop for home ?

Because you can upgrade components

Allyall

syklops wrote: »

I reckon the people he is referring to are the types who bought an iPad because they were fashionable, but never had a need for them and never got into the habit of using them everyday.

Yep. I was.

Most of them don't even know what their tablet is capable of other than playing angry birds and watching youtube.

CelticRambler

Agree with the comment that it's laptops that'll lose out. Anyone who really uses a computer - hi-end design, gaming, data entry, etc, will always need a "proper" box, even if they use cloud-based software. For those who are primarily consumers rather than generators of content (quality content - not Terabytes of status updates and out-of-focus videos) the more portable the better, so there'll be a tussle between smart-phones and tablets and I think it'll end in a one-all draw.

But the laptop/netbook will struggle because it'll never be consistently high-end enough for heavy professional use (e.g. hooked up to two or three screens, scanners, printers, etc) and will never be as portable as smartphones/tablets. The geek-factor will keep desktops in existence too - there's so much you can do with a tower case and a bag full of miscellaneous components that's impractical with a laptop.

seamus

CelticRambler wrote: »

But the laptop/netbook will struggle because it'll never be consistently high-end enough for heavy professional use (e.g. hooked up to two or three screens, scanners, printers, etc)

Strictly speaking, I don't think this is true.

It is more than possible to get a high-spec laptop for heavy professional use, hooked up to a million screens and so forth.

However, I think the key is that the kind of people who need/want that kind of spec, generally have no interest in being able to carry that machine around with them. Programming, gaming, writing, typically require a large workspace, free of distractions. You can't get comfortable sitting in an airport lounge or a starbucks on a laptop screen, therefore you can't get any real work/gaming done.

Same with home users. I have a desktop machine at home which I have no interest in bringing anywhere with me, so why would I pay the premium to have that spec in laptop form? I have a smartphone for browsing while out and about.

Laptops will continue to maintain quite a bit of appeal in business scenarios where staff need to be mobile (i.e. on client sites) and need a mid-spec machine to work.

In short, I do agree with you - I think we'll see the end of the consumer laptop. A colleague has a nexus 7 with a small keyboard and a cover that props up the screen when necessary. This is exactly the kind of thing that's perfect for students; much lighter and more robust than any laptop or netbook and perfectly capable of writing documents and taking notes.

syklops

I think the laptop has life in the old dog yet, input on touch-screen is a pain, though it has gotten better. I would not like to have to write anything of length on a touch screen. Until speech recognition is drastically improved, the keyboard will remain king, and even then I don't think it can replace the keyboard. What if you want to type something covert? What if you want to type something in a noisy environment like an airport? "Can you hear me now?".

On more than one occasion I have seen people take a photo with their tablet of the whiteboard, rather than take notes on their device

While it is now common to see tablets in meetings, suggest to any executive or indeed regular worker that they should swap their laptop for a tablet and they will laugh at you.

Allyall

syklops wrote: »

the keyboard will remain king, and even then I don't think it can replace the keyboard.

On more than one occasion I have seen people take a photo with their tablet of the whiteboard, rather than take notes on their device

While it is now common to see tablets in meetings, suggest to any executive or indeed regular worker that they should swap their laptop for a tablet and they will laugh at you.

I'd agree with all of that. Typing on a Tablet can be a pain in the ass, slow, and to a small extent, irritating on the wrist, and one finger at a time. (Although i do like swipe)

I never even thought about photgraphing the whiteboard.. That's gas.

Ultrabooks are pretty handy. I helped a lady, (Friend of my Mothers) pick one, as she has Parkinson's, and needed something light, and user friendly. She had an iPad and hated it.
Although Logitech have their range of folio keyboards, which make it laptop-esque.

CelticRambler

seamus wrote: »

It is more than possible to get a high-spec laptop for heavy professional use, hooked up to a million screens and so forth.

However, I think the key is that the kind of people who need/want that kind of spec, generally have no interest in being able to carry that machine around with them. Programming, gaming, writing, typically require a large workspace, free of distractions. You can't get comfortable sitting in an airport lounge or a starbucks on a laptop screen, therefore you can't get any real work/gaming done.

Same with home users. I have a desktop machine at home which I have no interest in bringing anywhere with me, so why would I pay the premium to have that spec in laptop form? I have a smartphone for browsing while out and about.

That's more or less what I meant - it's not that the laptop isn't capable, but there's a significant section of the computer-using public (personal and business users) for whom the laptop's portability is irrelevant because of what you describe.

I disagree with you regarding the itinerant office worker, though. This is where I see functionality and storage being transferred to the cloud, and a tablet being used as the access point. On many of the sites I've visited, you've only got one hand available anyway so ten-finger typing is not going to happen no matter what.

syklops wrote: »

I think the laptop has life in the old dog yet, input on touch-screen is a pain, though it has gotten better. I would not like to have to write anything of length on a touch screen. Until speech recognition is drastically improved, the keyboard will remain king, and even then I don't think it can replace the keyboard. What if you want to type something covert? What if you want to type something in a noisy environment like an airport? "Can you hear me now?".

On more than one occasion I have seen people take a photo with their tablet of the whiteboard, rather than take notes on their device

While it is now common to see tablets in meetings, suggest to any executive or indeed regular worker that they should swap their laptop for a tablet and they will laugh at you.

You've just described all the reasons why a laptop is almost obsolete! Its keyboard is not as good as a desktop; if you can take a photo, you don't need to type; alternative technologies will make data entry on the move finger-free (direct thought-to-text gets over the two problems you cited - will probably happen almost as quickly as reliable voice-to-text).

meoklmrk91

When the iPad was first released I dismissed it as a glorified big iPod Touch. I couldn't understand why anyone would buy one. Then last summer I needed something small and portable to take notes in college and since I despise netbooks I bought an iPad 2.

I can honestly say that it is one of the most useful devices I have ever bought. Perfect for email, the best device for couch surfing, I can read magazines now where as before I couldn't on my kindle, furthering my mission to remove all paper from my life, I watch movies and TV shows, browse youtube, read books, use it for social networking and yes I used it in college to take notes and it was perfect, I know that some people don't think that a touch screen is any good for typing but I can type just as fast on the iPad as I can on my laptop and I can do it without even looking.

So I can't see myself ever being without a tablet of some description, I have a laptop and an iPhone so I don't really need one, but to me it is just another must have device and thats it

looking_around

personally I prefer netbooks to tablets, but I often find myself typing ALOT. And a tablet is just too much hassle for that. I find netbooks better than just 'attaching a keyboard' to the tablet.

Like others, I think it'll be Laptops that will 'die off'. As Desktops are still very used./Needed. Nothing quite compares to their power/quality output.

As the tablet technology improves there will be less difference between laptops and them. With keyboard attachments, they'll eventually become one and the same I believe.