Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

bigtimecharlie

Spieth 4/1. Anyone?

Seve OB

Deleted User wrote: »

Sweats

Deleted User wrote: »

Abour 2800 but that would bring everyone green ill just level out the top 10 or so to varying degrees

I hope you took the cash out

Nice few bob though even if you didnt

kiers47

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Can we have a who lost the most money thread ?

Just Title it Kiers and close it again!!!

Senna

Senna wrote: »

Went for Kaufman @16/1 for top 10

Really thought that was going to come in, but he'll be one for the future.

Seve OB

Seve OB wrote: »

I hope you took the cash out

Nice few bob though even if you didnt

Cashed out kinda had 2k for willet win still had Kaufmann for 20 but tbh im more than happy great sweat great night of golf.

I was 1k most of the rest including jordan. Kaufmann missing top 10 cost me a bit on my more likely bets

mansize

He's 9/1 for SPOTY on betfair

FixdePitchmark

The year of the selfie when you win a major

a new low in life.

Seve OB

mansize wrote: »

He's 9/1 for SPOTY on betfair

Good odds for this early in the year but he will have to do a lot more.

Big year......... Olympics!

Don't think he will get it, unless he wins another major or at least a WGC and another big one, plus the Ryder cup

FixdePitchmark

I lost 60 euro

mansize

Seve OB wrote: »

Good odds for this early in the year but he will have to do a lot more.

Big year......... Olympics!

Don't think he will get it, unless he wins another major or at least a WGC and another big one, plus the Ryder cup

Oh yeah Olympics, but Team GB will be at a hiding to nothing

hefferboi

hefferboi wrote: »

Willet had a good round yesterday. I never heard of him before that, is he good? What are the chances of him making a proper challenge?? He's 18/1 to do it.

Sums up my weekend that I decided not to put 10 on him before he teed off today.

FixdePitchmark

hefferboi wrote: »

Sums up my weekend that I decided not to put 10 on him before he teed off today.

But sure why would you - Jordan, a 7 at 12 was in my mind 1000/1

hefferboi

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

But sure why would you - Jordan, a 7 at 12 was in my mind 1000/1

What?

lester76

€450 good night as I cry into my pillow

FixdePitchmark

lester76 wrote: »

€450 good night as I cry into my pillow

:D

I think i posted at one stage - put money on langer enjoy ride.

Day one was a perfect leaderboard - but , was it the worst ever masters for the punters.

Paddy has a green jacket tonight.

FixdePitchmark

hefferboi wrote: »

What?

Look what happened with Spieth was a freak - so thinking you lost money on a bet you didn't take, post a freak event - is just mathematically not something worth worrying about.

splashthecash

Absolutely raging here...put an e/w bet on Speith to win masters (e/w was top three) and went to bed feeling happy that I'd won the potential winnings which was displayed (~€55). Then woke up this morning to €19!! After I'd put €15 each way? That's a joke...and that deduction cos he tied for second, I'd understand d if he tied for third but why discount when he got second.

I lost lost after winning the bet....can someone who knows more about betting explain this to me..??

Tom.D.BJJ

I lost the price of a box of z-stars.

realdanbreen

Do the bookies pay out if your player(snedeker in my case) is joint 5th. I know PP was paying 7 places but when there are several players with same score do they pay out?

Ronney

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do the bookies pay out if your player(snedeker in my case) is joint 5th. I know PP was paying 7 places but when there are several players with same score do they pay out?

Dead heat rule applies, If payin 7 places in this case there are 3 players tied for 7th. You steak will be divided by the number of players (3) and then multiplied by the number of places (1).

So you will get a third of winnings essentially.

Ronney

splashthecash wrote: »

Absolutely raging here...put an e/w bet on Speith to win masters (e/w was top three) and went to bed feeling happy that I'd won the potential winnings which was displayed (~€55). Then woke up this morning to €19!! After I'd put €15 each way? That's a joke...and that deduction cos he tied for second, I'd understand d if he tied for third but why discount when he got second.

I lost lost after winning the bet....can someone who knows more about betting explain this to me..??

You have 2 bets essentially

Win Part
€15 at 11/8 on him to win which lost (would have paid you €35.63 if he won as well as the place part below)

and place part.
€15 on him to finish 1st or 2nd or 3rd at odds of 1/5 of 11/8 which is 0.275/1

So you got your steak €15 and 0.275 times your stake €4.13 = Total €19.13


Backing something which such short odds e/w would not be seen as the wisest thing to do. With the e/w at 1/5 the odds you should really only back something 5/1 or greater which will at least break even for you if it places

splashthecash

Ronney wrote: »

You have 2 bets essentially

Win Part
€15 at 11/8 on him to win which lost (would have paid you €35.63 if he won as well as the place part below)

and place part.
€15 on him to finish 1st or 2nd or 3rd at odds of 1/5 of 11/8 which is 0.275/1

So you got your steak €15 and 0.275 times your stake €4.13 = Total €19.13


Backing something which such short odds e/w would not be seen as the wisest thing to do. With the e/w at 1/5 the odds you should really only back something 5/1 or greater which will at least break even for you if it places

Balls anyway, I don't bet much - which is probably best going on the above... Thanks for the explanation

slimshady007

splashthecash wrote: »

Absolutely raging here...put an e/w bet on Speith to win masters (e/w was top three) and went to bed feeling happy that I'd won the potential winnings which was displayed (~€55). Then woke up this morning to €19!! After I'd put €15 each way? That's a joke...and that deduction cos he tied for second, I'd understand d if he tied for third but why discount when he got second.

I lost lost after winning the bet....can someone who knows more about betting explain this to me..??

An each way bet is 2 separate bets. €15 went on him winning and €15 went on him finishing placed in the top 3. The potential winnings reflect both bets winning, i.e. Jordan winning the Masters. As he didn't win the €15 win part of your bet is now lost.

The €15 bet on him finishing top 3 is a win. The odds offerered were 1/5 the odds for a top 3 finish. In this case the odds to start with were 11/8. A fifth of these odds is 11/40.

So 11/40 of €15 is €4.13. Add this to your €15 on him placing top 3 and you get €19.13 which is what you got paid out. There was no deduction in this case as there was 1 winner and 2 people tied 2nd so 3 places altogether. If there was a 50% deduction you'd have ended up with less than a tenner.

Generally betting each way at such short odds is not advised as you still end up down money if they don't win and only place.

kiers47

slimshady007 wrote: »

Generally betting each way at such short odds is not advised as you still end up down money if they don't win and only place.

While i would agree with this for the most part it is foolish to just say it is not advised.

Some times there are occurrences where an each way bet at say 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 are great bets.

The two bets should be treated as separate bets. Say you place a win bet at 3/1 and say well there is no point in going each way because if he loses i wont even cover my bet. Well if you just do win and he loses you also lose all the win bet.

There are times when a player may be say 3/1 to win the tournament. Which at 1/4 odds would be 3/4 for the place. It may be the case then that the actual odds of a place is say 1/2 then an each way play here is a great bet.

I dont want to ramble on this but i think its foolish to just blindly ignore each way bets at shorter odds. The bets should be treated as 2 seperate bets which are just related.

But yes in this case so late in the day at such limited odds an each way play was probably the wrong way to play it.

Ollieboy

Jordon, about 800,000k.

valoren

€50 down the swanny on DJ.

The most frustrating player to back in a major.

Hoof Hearted2

kiers47 wrote: »

While i would agree with this for the most part it is foolish to just say it is not advised.

Some times there are occurrences where an each way bet at say 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 are great bets.

The two bets should be treated as separate bets. Say you place a win bet at 3/1 and say well there is no point in going each way because if he loses i wont even cover my bet. Well if you just do win and he loses you also lose all the win bet.

There are times when a player may be say 3/1 to win the tournament. Which at 1/4 odds would be 3/4 for the place. It may be the case then that the actual odds of a place is say 1/2 then an each way play here is a great bet.

I dont want to ramble on this but i think its foolish to just blindly ignore each way bets at shorter odds. The bets should be treated as 2 seperate bets which are just related.

But yes in this case so late in the day at such limited odds an each way play was probably the wrong way to play it.

Slimshady is correct an each-way bet as described is a losing bet long term. Now if he had made a "place only" bet then you can argue there is value in that.

Mantis Toboggan

€160 on Jordan "meltdown" Spieth. Although I'm fairly happy he didn't win

Hoof Hearted2

Ollieboy wrote: »

Jordon, about 800,000k.

800 million, wow here you go!.

slimshady007

kiers47 wrote: »

While i would agree with this for the most part it is foolish to just say it is not advised.

Some times there are occurrences where an each way bet at say 2/1, 5/2, 3/1 are great bets.

The two bets should be treated as separate bets. Say you place a win bet at 3/1 and say well there is no point in going each way because if he loses i wont even cover my bet. Well if you just do win and he loses you also lose all the win bet.

There are times when a player may be say 3/1 to win the tournament. Which at 1/4 odds would be 3/4 for the place. It may be the case then that the actual odds of a place is say 1/2 then an each way play here is a great bet.

I dont want to ramble on this but i think its foolish to just blindly ignore each way bets at shorter odds. The bets should be treated as 2 seperate bets which are just related.

But yes in this case so late in the day at such limited odds an each way play was probably the wrong way to play it.

I guess everyone has their own viewpoint on each way bets. I'd never go e/w unless I was guaranteed my stake back for the place part at a minimum. If i'd seen 11/8 then e/w wouldn't have even entered my head.

To me I'd consider an each way bet at short odds like 5/2 as trying to minimise a loss. In that case you shouldn't be backing it as you should be confident enough of winning when taking those sort of prices. If you feel that the place is a better bet then put the full stake on the place.

But if you're putting 10 e/w on a 3/1 shot at 1/4 place odds then that doesn't make sense to me. If it wins you're making €37.50 profit (same as 7/4 if you'd done a straight win). If it places you lose €2.50.

Whereas put the full 20 on as a win and you end up with €60 profit. If you just fancy it to place (say odds are 1/2) then put the 20 on it and you'll have €10 profit.

I've seen numerous gamblers console themselves with "at least I only lost x amount on that one" for short price e/w bets. An e/w bet on a short price pick is a sign you're not confident of it winning and so probably shouldn't be backing it at all.

kiers47

slimshady007 wrote: »

I guess everyone has their own viewpoint on each way bets. I'd never go e/w unless I was guaranteed my stake back for the place part at a minimum. If i'd seen 11/8 then e/w wouldn't have even entered my head.

To me I'd consider an each way bet at short odds like 5/2 as trying to minimise a loss. In that case you shouldn't be backing it as you should be confident enough of winning when taking those sort of prices. If you feel that the place is a better bet then put the full stake on the place.

But if you're putting 10 e/w on a 3/1 shot at 1/4 place odds then that doesn't make sense to me. If it wins you're making €37.50 profit (same as 7/4 if you'd done a straight win). If it places you lose €2.50.

Whereas put the full 20 on as a win and you end up with €60 profit. If you just fancy it to place (say odds are 1/2) then put the 20 on it and you'll have €10 profit.

I've seen numerous gamblers console themselves with "at least I only lost x amount on that one" for short price e/w bets. An e/w bet on a short price pick is a sign you're not confident of it winning and so probably shouldn't be backing it at all.

A very common misconception with each way betting is that the win and place bet are the same bet. As i said already they should be considered as 2 different bets. There is a time and a place for all bets. Ive had this conversation with people before and it usually only goes one way no matter how much evidence is provided. So i think we will have to agree to disagree

FWIW i did have an each way bet this tournament at 5/2 on spieth(also 10/1 mind) but im pretty happy with the angle i took. I got 5/8 for a top 3 and he was 1.52 on the exchanges at the time for a top 3.

Bookies hate each way punters for this exact reason. They dont like giving a place bet at higher odds than they believe the chances are. Next time i see a good example i will ensure to highlight it.

Seve OB

I think the lad was mad putting an each way bet on at those odds.

it is a win or nothing bet at those prices really

but

the other option and safer one should have put a single bet to place on him.



As a rule of thumb, when placing an e/w bet, check the number of places on offer. check the odds offered and compare that with the odds reduction for place. eg 1/5, 1/4, 1/3,

If the odds are 4/1 and paying 1/4, that is break even territory and the minimum you should consider. if the payout is 1/5th, well then you need odds of at lease 5/1 etc.

Always worth considering a single place bet when odds are low rather than going e/w

kiers47

Seve OB wrote: »

I think the lad was mad putting an each way bet on at those odds.

it is a win or nothing bet at those prices really

but

the other option and safer one should have put a single bet to place on him.



As a rule of thumb, when placing an e/w bet, check the number of places on offer. check the odds offered and compare that with the odds reduction for place. eg 1/5, 1/4, 1/3,

If the odds are 4/1 and paying 1/4, that is break even territory and the minimum you should consider. if the payout is 1/5th, well then you need odds of at lease 5/1 etc.

Always worth considering a single place bet when odds are low rather than going e/w

I agree in this instance it was a ridiculous bet but in general it is foolish to ignore a potential angle just because you only break even or lose a slight amount with a place.
The win and place bets should be considered as 2 different bets this is why it costs double.

CMOTDibbler

Seve OB wrote: »

I think the lad was mad putting an each way bet on at those odds.

it is a win or nothing bet at those prices really

but

the other option and safer one should have put a single bet to place on him.



As a rule of thumb, when placing an e/w bet, check the number of places on offer. check the odds offered and compare that with the odds reduction for place. eg 1/5, 1/4, 1/3,

If the odds are 4/1 and paying 1/4, that is break even territory and the minimum you should consider. if the payout is 1/5th, well then you need odds of at lease 5/1 etc.

Always worth considering a single place bet when odds are low rather than going e/w

Yeah. Sometimes it's better to place a win bet and a top ten bet if you're doubtful (this is in golf obvs.). The other thing to look at in covering bets is to look at who you fancy on longer odds and back them e/w or top ten/top twenty for small enough money.

I had 1 euro e/w on Danny Willett at 60/1 as well as a bunch of other bets. I lost them all, but almost tripled my entire stakes on Danny .

Golf is so unpredictable (who'd have guessed Spieth would blow up yesterday?) that you're better off with e/w bets on long odds as a cover rather than e/w bets on short odds.

kiers47

I should also add to this that as it is 2 separate bets that when calculating if you believe it is value or not. Then both bets must make sense and be seen as value. No point in doing an each way bet on something that you believe has no hope of winning or where you dont think there is any value in the place part. Probably wisest to have no bet in this instance.

slimshady007

kiers47 wrote: »

A very common misconception with each way betting is that the win and place bet are the same bet. As i said already they should be considered as 2 different bets. There is a time and a place for all bets. Ive had this conversation with people before and it usually only goes one way no matter how much evidence is provided. So i think we will have to agree to disagree

FWIW i did have an each way bet this tournament at 5/2 on spieth(also 10/1 mind) but im pretty happy with the angle i took. I got 5/8 for a top 3 and he was 1.52 on the exchanges at the time for a top 3.

Bookies hate each way punters for this exact reason. They dont like giving a place bet at higher odds than they believe the chances are. Next time i see a good example i will ensure to highlight it.

I think we will have to disagree - u went e/w on spieth at 5/2 which has just eaten into the profit u made on him at 10/1? I'd say bookies would be happy enough with that cos they've made back some of what they paid out on your 10/1 bet. I don't understand your logic but if it works for u long term then nothing wrong with it.

kiers47

slimshady007 wrote: »

I think we will have to disagree - u went e/w on spieth at 5/2 which has just eaten into the profit u made on him at 10/1? I'd say bookies would be happy enough with that cos they've made back some of what they paid out on your 10/1 bet. I don't understand your logic but if it works for u long term then nothing wrong with it.

These were 4 seperate bets and i had reasons for them all. I never think about how they will relate to each other. At the time i placed the 5/2 bet the 10/1 bet was 2 days old and i had plenty of reasons to play again at 5/2 i didnt even consider the 10/1 bet as a reason to not place a bet which i thought was a good bet. This would be an error to do so IMO.
Tbh i probably only break even on golf bets although have had a good run on them in the last 12 months, but i enjoy the odd punt when the big guns are out.

Ill be alright though.
Do a couple of decent sized each way bets on dirty each way punts and you will see how quickly a bookie will limit or close your account. Have had a skybet and bet365 account closed in the last year for doing to many of these. Granted golf markets usually offer good each way value for the bookies as people tend to not think about their each way bets.
But in general bookies hate each way bets when offering terms like 1/4 on win stakes when there are potential ricks in the market. It can cause the place terms to be very beneficial to the punter in some instances.

I could go on but i have said my bit. Best of luck to you in your future betting and remember always consider the value for both parts of an each way bet.

Montgolfier

Lost money on Mcilroy 10ew was sure he'd win. But I had Willet and casey ew as well so gained overall.

dan_ep82

Lost €6 between Sullivan,Mcilroy and Aphibarnrat but made made €85 on willet with the other €2 so happy with my first bets. Think I'll stick to the majors though, just makes them a bit more interesting.

billy3sheets

i had Stenson to win and the following for top 10
Casey @8
Willett @5
Lowry @12
Kuchar @6


bet 25 got 65 back or thereabouts

a small win but a win still...

@20s

This week gone with

Sned @20s
Na @ 60s
O'Hair @ 105s
Kj @ 140s

Backed and Layed Donald for a free bet

Small interest

Kelly
Lovemark
Toms

FRL

O'Hair
Lovemark
Kelly
Howell

Spain

Dunne and Kieffer

Jesus that kinda got away from me a bit

diomed

Smylie Kaufman €527.00 at 497.1

ronnie3585

So, who are people putting their money on this week?

Of the favourites, I'm going to do e/w bets on Rory and Matsuyama. Thought about DJ and Rickie but they're just too streaky and don't seem to have the bottle to close out on a Major yet.

Given what we are seeing of the course, driving accuracy will be key. Rory's been very accurate off the tee all year and coupled with this distance he should be hitting shorter irons into the tricky greens than most. His putting has been sh*te, but I'm hoping it'll improve:)

For big odds bets, I think I'll do Webb Simpson, Lowry and maybe Danny Lee.

Seve OB

I really don't see the point in EW betting when odds are so low. Go big or go bust.

Incidentally I wouldn't say his putting has been that bad, it's never been great, but it has been decent enough this year I think. He'll never be a Tiger though on the greens, if he was in the same ball park as he was, nobody else would have a sniff.......... Ever!

brady23

Pretty decent year so far. Willet for the Masters and Sergio for the Bryon were my best.
Going with Aiken and Knox as my main bets, 500s and 100s then smaller bets on Glover and Ogilvy

mickmackmcgoo

Kuchar to be in top 10 at 100/30
Kaymer to win 75/1
Spieth top 10 evens
Spieth to win 10/1

slave1

ronnie3585 wrote: »

For big odds bets, I think I'll do Webb Simpson, Lowry and maybe Danny Lee.

Lowry on those greens!
Good luck

slave1

slave1 wrote: »

Lowry on those greens!
Good luck

Putting tends to normalise on very hard greens so bad putters will give up less shots to the field than on a normal event

dan_ep82

Went for Spieth, Luke Donald and D. Johnson to win. Henrik to lead first day.

Doesn't really make sense but I like luke and henrik

Tom.D.BJJ

dan_ep82 wrote: »

Went for Spieth, Luke Donald and D. Johnson to win. Henrik to lead first day.

Doesn't really make sense but I like luke and henrik

Henrik is a good shout with so many taking 3W off the tee.

Im going Rory for the win. Furyk, Henrik, and Harris English EW