Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

Johnny_Fontane

Spieth!

Leading the tour in GIR after being outside the top 100 last year. Also has won this year which in the last 10 years, majority of winners have done. Finished 2-1-2 last three years, best putter in the world (in what in all essence could be construed as a putting competition). Experience he has at Augusta puts him considerably ahead of the pack for me.

Also backed Philomena at 33/1 about 6 weeks ago.

acalmenvoy

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

Spieth!

Totally agree with this, safe bet E/W, with a chance to win a few bob.

4068ac1elhodqr

Whilst waiting for the more generous 7/8places to appear,
may be worth waiting and seeing how things go at the Shell Houston.
e.g. Phil@23, Henley@34 and Dufner@67^ are all BP with PP 7pl.
^ 110-130% overpriced on average.

Spieth is also @8 6pl 1/4 (SJ/BFD) in this, but will instead also be one of the selections for the Masters
- once the EP become available (likely also priced <@8c), but in a field which is 156% smaller.

billy3sheets

Bernhard Langer - Winner - 700/1

Justin Thomas - Top 5 Finish - 10/1
Tyrrell Hatton - Top 5 Finish - 11/1
Alex Noren - Top 5 Finish - 15/1

All on Betfair Exchange

Johnny_Fontane

I wanted to back Spieth to win at houston and augusta, but the bookies wont do it....:mad:

Miley Byrne

Spieth, Jordan 13/2 2PTS WIN

Leishman, Marc 50/1 1PT E/W
Schwartzel, Charl 55/1 .5PT E/W
Fleetwood, Tommy 80/1 .5 PT E/W

Think Fleetwood could go very close

PARlance

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

I wanted to back Spieth to win at houston and augusta, but the bookies wont do it....:mad:

Did they give a reason? Seems very strange that they wouldn't do a bet like that.

You've very little to gain from such a double anyway.

PARlance

Bill Haas jumps out as having a bit of value, you can get him between 100-150/1 (Horses for courses even though he's not a grade 1). He's generally a banker for the weekend and may just sneak an e/w this year. Coming in with decent form from last weekend anyway.

4068ac1elhodqr

8 places 1/4 are now available in the Masters.

The Premier Man

Londyn Sweet Week wrote:

8 places 1/4 are now available in the Masters.

With who?

4068ac1elhodqr

Same as last year (the Sky people^), expect the regulars to shortly increase to 7places from 6...

Seve OB

not only that, but free £10 bet for new customers and no deposit necessary

SEORG

I've done an e/w double for Houston & Augusta

Billy Horschel @ 40/1 & Jordan Speith 8/1

HighLine

See Danny Willet is 100/1 . Perhaps the largest odds for a defending champ of the Masters? Not a tip by the way... I wouldn't back him at 200/1.

4068ac1elhodqr

I like PP's 7pl in the Shell, but their W/O 5pl market is just the two favs.
Whereas Sky's W/O has Spieth, Rahm +Stenson

So... Henley@26 and PM@16 it is, without the top trio.
Double e/w arrays with few random 8pl in the masters e.g. RF@126, CH@151.

Degag

PARlance wrote: »

Did they give a reason? Seems very strange that they wouldn't do a bet like that.

You've very little to gain from such a double anyway.

Stand to be corrected but I think the reason is that the two events are related in that if Speith won this week, his price for the Masters would be reduced. Have seen it come up in certain soccer bets before.

4068ac1elhodqr

Powers like Sky have also now gone to 8places (but at 1/5),
hard to see why the majority of the other books would get any golf business whilst paying just 5pl on average.

PopePalpatine

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

Powers like Sky have also now gone to 8places (but at 1/5),
hard to see why the majority of the other books would get any golf business whilst paying just 5pl on average.

Yep, Bet365 offered the best odds for my picks this week (Scott, List, Hoffman & Henley) but I went with PP for the extra 2 places.

Armchair Andy

Only did Rose for the Houston. 18s e/w. I think it's top 6 in PP?

PopePalpatine

Armchair Andy wrote: »

Only did Rose for the Houston. 18s e/w. I think it's top 6 in PP?

It was top 7 before the tournament got underway, but they're offering top 6 for in-play picks right now.

4068ac1elhodqr

So in Huston the Shell leader R2 (-16) King Kang is currently available @201 for the Masters.
Is this an error, and will the 202nd in the world tee off next Thursday at Augusta National at this price?

Mysterypunter

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

So in Huston the Shell leader R2 (-16) King Kang is currently available @201 for the Masters.
Is this an error, and will the 202nd in the world tee off next Thursday at Augusta National at this price?

Don't think that chap is in the masters, even if he wins this week

4068ac1elhodqr

Mysterypunter wrote: »

Don't think that chap is in the masters, even if he wins this week

Might explain it, read somewhere it was dependent on the Shell performance, only Powers seem to have the slightly generous price/market available for him, and according to OC. Maybe they'll void it next week...

Mysterypunter

8 places is excellent ew value, must be Speith on the form book, course form. Dustin very short, was on him a couple of years back at 25-1, led on the Friday but dropped 7 shots in 5 holes. Say you will get refunded if Kang doesn't play

4068ac1elhodqr

One article says there's 1 spot available for the Shell winner. If he does another -9, certainly a chance, else voided selection.

FixdePitchmark

Mysterypunter wrote: »

8 places is excellent ew value, must be Speith on the form book, course form. Dustin very short, was on him a couple of years back at 25-1, led on the Friday but dropped 7 shots in 5 holes. Say you will get refunded if Kang doesn't play

Lads I know 8 places is decent.

But with dead heat rules are you not typically shafted ? How would below work

typically moving down to say 4/5/6/7/8 you will be in a dead heat.

there will typically be say 3 tied on 6th.



For each way bets dead heat rules apply. For example, if each-way terms quoted for a tournament are for the first 4 places, the 3 players tying for third place will be deemed to have dead-heated for third, fourth and fifth place with 1/3 stake lost and 2/3 stake settled at full place odds for each way bets on those players.

Mysterypunter

You may be shafted for t6,7 or 8, but it gives a huge edge for pre tournament bets. If your player is in the top 12-15 places on Sunday, they could still reach the places. If you are backing a fancied player they should be in the top 5 or 6 anyway.

4068ac1elhodqr

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Lads I know 8 places is decent.

But with dead heat rules are you not typically shafted ? .

Slightly more shafted with just 5places that another 10books are offering, regardless.

FixdePitchmark

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

Slightly more shafted with just 5places that another 10books are offering, regardless.

so just to be clear - and this is not unusual.

6 players tied 8th - what odds will you get on your E/W bet ? 2014

Mysterypunter

You would get 1/30th, I think, not great but if you had a fiver ew on a 33-1 chance, you would get your money back. Place part would be 33/30, (11/10). 10.50 back for 10. You would get SFA with other bookies.

4068ac1elhodqr

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

so just to be clear - and this is not unusual.

6 players tied 8th - what odds will you get on your E/W bet ? 2014

Yes (if) you get 6players tied 8th or even 7th, the odds aren't superb if you're backing favs, but they're still e/w multipliers on an multi-line accumulator.

Last year there was such a severe pile up at the top, that there was no actual payout for any J-8th, due to this factor with Sky, who were doing the 8pl.

FixdePitchmark

Mysterypunter wrote: »

You would get 1/30th, I think, not great but if you had a fiver ew on a 33-1 chance, you would get your money back. Place part would be 33/30, (11/10). 10.50 back for 10. You would get SFA with other bookies.

I think that is what I am getting at mathematically.

Statistically you will find that when they offer 7/8 they are insured by the tie break rule. Because if you look into it , you are into big tie breaks from 3rd down.

They will win on win part - and divide on the place part. As in you are going to be in tie break with at least 3.

So - yes golfers are optimistic on this place thing - but typically it is a nonsense. You lost your win stake , they are taking on the E/W stake and you get **** all out of it

4068ac1elhodqr

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I think that is what I am getting at mathematically.

Mathematically speaking, you're getting 8places in a field of 96. A pile up isn't a mathematical certainty, it may actually be more likely in the Shell/other markers with 7pl and a much larger initial field.

4068ac1elhodqr

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

I like PP's 7pl in the Shell, but their W/O 5pl market is just the two favs.
Whereas Sky's W/O has Spieth, Rahm +Stenson

So... Henley@26 and PM@16 it is, without the top trio.
Double e/w arrays with few random 8pl in the masters e.g. RF@126, CH@151.

A popular choice across boards and across the markets, nice to have W/O(3), but seems not even necessary. Guess Kang didn't get the Masters spot, Rahm now shortish @26. But Berger@91, Dufner@151 and Swafford@200-250 reasonably priced for the Masters, whom all performed well this weekend.

1 Henley -20
2 Kang -17

T3 List -16
T3 Folwer -16

5 Berger -13
6 Swafford -12

FixdePitchmark

Another scam by Paddy Power

That add in Indo today was that they are paying 9 places - but it is 1/5th odds ?

4068ac1elhodqr

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Another scam by Paddy Power

That add in Indo today was that they are paying 9 places - but it is 1/5th odds ?

Don't you mean 8places?

mojoeback

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

Don't you mean 8places?

think it's 8 alright. Skybet doing 1/4 odds top 8 seems the best. Boylepsorts offer rubbish as usual.

4068ac1elhodqr

mojoeback wrote: »

think it's 8 alright. Skybet doing 1/4 odds top 8 seems the best. Boylepsorts offer rubbish as usual.

Indeed, WillHill have also just today joined the 8places party threesome. Also 1/5th, but if your selection with PP/WH is 20-25% better priced than Sky's (1/4) then it becomes more of an advantage.

E.g. You can get today's Shell winner: Henley, Russell @101 now PP, but he's only @81 with Sky, so who'd you choose?

Someone might push the boat out and go 9 or 10pl, slim chance but possible...

bren2001

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Another scam by Paddy Power

That add in Indo today was that they are paying 9 places - but it is 1/5th odds ?

How's it a scam? All the information is there for the customer to see.

kiers47

Mysterypunter wrote: »

You would get 1/30th, I think, not great but if you had a fiver ew on a 33-1 chance, you would get your money back. Place part would be 33/30, (11/10). 10.50 back for 10. You would get SFA with other bookies.

This is incorrect. It is your stake that is split not the odds. The odds remain the same. You would lose 5/6 of your stake and only 1/6 would be placed on at 33/5. It has fairly big implications as you would only get back 1/6 of your stake when calculating the returns. So in your example above for €5e/w. You would have 83c at 33/5 and your 83c back. Coming to a return of about €6.30

brady23

kiers47 wrote: »

Mysterypunter wrote: »

You would get 1/30th, I think, not great but if you had a fiver ew on a 33-1 chance, you would get your money back. Place part would be 33/30, (11/10). 10.50 back for 10. You would get SFA with other bookies.

This is incorrect. It is your stake that is split not the odds. The odds remain the same. You would lose 5/6 of your stake and only 1/6 would be placed on at 33/5. It has fairly big implications as you would only get back 1/6 of your stake when calculating the returns. So in your example above for €5e/w. You would have 83c at 33/5 and your 83c back. Coming to a return of about €6.30

No its not. The odds are divided not the stake. I don't where you got that from.

2 easily understood scenarios.

1.

Rory finishes 8th by himself at 10/1 with 10ew placed on him at 1/4 odds.
You lose the win portion and get 2.5/1 on your 10e from your each way so you get 35e back.

2.

Rory finishes 7th with 3 other golfers with 8 places paid at the same odds and ew terms as above, easiest thing to do is the same as above up until you add back on your stake so take 25e and divide by 4 (number of golfers) and multiply by 2 (amount of places) you gets 12.50 plus your ew stake so you get 22.50e

FixdePitchmark

bren2001 wrote: »

How's it a scam? All the information is there for the customer to see.

Because a 1/5 is not as an each way bet always was 1/4 .

So in big writing all about 8 places . But in last few years they have simply reduced return . in very small writing

The advert doesn't say now paying 8 places at reduced odds .

Seve OB

Charl Schwartzel few quid e/w @ 80/1

kiers47

brady23 wrote: »

No its not. The odds are divided not the stake. I don't where you got that from.

2 easily understood scenarios.

1.

Rory finishes 8th by himself at 10/1 with 10ew placed on him at 1/4 odds.
You lose the win portion and get 2.5/1 on your 10e from your each way so you get 35e back.

2.

Rory finishes 7th with 3 other golfers with 8 places paid at the same odds and ew terms as above, easiest thing to do is the same as above up until you add back on your stake so take 25e and divide by 4 (number of golfers) and multiply by 2 (amount of places) you gets 12.50 plus your ew stake so you get 22.50e

Sorry Brady but i am right here. Google Dead Heat rules and click any of the relevant bookmaker links.
Seemingly it is not very "easily understood"

Your stake is divided not the odds. As i described above would be the correct way to settle a bet.

redzerdrog

It 1/4 the odds not 1/4 the stakes.

That's why they say 5 places and 1/4 the odds they don't say 5 places and 1/4 the stake

kiers47

redzerdrog wrote: »

It 1/4 the odds not 1/4 the stakes.

That's why they say 5 places and 1/4 the odds they don't say 5 places and 1/4 the stake

Correct but that is not what we are discussing.
We are discussing dead heat rules and what happens your returns if a bunch of players finish tied 8th or tied on the amount of places the bookmaker is paying. In which case you would lose a certain part of the stake.

Seve OB

kiers is right
he knows his stuff

https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/16/c/483/

brady23

kiers47 wrote: »

redzerdrog wrote: »

It 1/4 the odds not 1/4 the stakes.

That's why they say 5 places and 1/4 the odds they don't say 5 places and 1/4 the stake

Correct but that is not what we are discussing.
We are discussing dead heat rules and what happens your returns if a bunch of players finish tied 8th or tied on the amount of places the bookmaker is paying. In which case you would lose a certain part of the stake.

I was speaking about odds rules and elaborated with an easy way to work out dead heat in example 2. My bad didn't realise you were specifically talking about Deadheat

kiers47

brady23 wrote: »

I was speaking about odds rules and elaborated with an easy way to work out dead heat in example 2. My bad didn't realise you were specifically talking about Deadheat

No problem. Its a common mistake.
However in your example the result would be €17.50 returned.
Half of the €10 staked(€5) on at 2.5/1. €12.50 + €5(stake back).

kiers47

Anyways who are people fancying for the week. Its hard to get over the credentials of DJ/Spieth/Rory. Might take a couple of stabs at some bigger prices.