Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

KombuchaMshroom

Is there something I'm missing with Westwood? 80/1 with PP seems very high!

I absolutely do not expect him to win, but with them paying 8 places, he's done that in 5 of the last 7 years at Augusta. Seems a great E/W bet

Hoof Hearted2

KombuchaMshroom wrote: »

Is there something I'm missing with Westwood? 80/1 with PP seems very high!

I absolutely do not expect him to win, but with them paying 8 places, he's done that in 5 of the last 7 years at Augusta. Seems a great E/W bet

He's actually not playing too bad this year, good e/w value, lamp it onto him.

4068ac1elhodqr

kiers47 wrote: »

Might take a couple of stabs at some bigger prices.

Few big prices still out there still for the E/W accums and via the trio of S/PP/WH doing 8pl:

Langer@501 (in press today, he said "where there's a will, there's a way").
Hurley@501 (may be better for early round 1/2 leader markets)
Kim@501
Els@401
McGirt@301
Vegas@251

Henley was @126-100 last night, but now 67-81 only.

brady23

Snedeker, Koepka, Fitzpatrick for me, hoping for 2 years in a row had 25ew on Willett last year paid for my clubs

leonards

Rory / Jordan S.
/ Koepa & J Thomas long shot...

4068ac1elhodqr

Boyles aren't paying as many places (6 1/5), but do have MoneyBack (as free bet) offer if you selection finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th (incl. ties), max 20, singles etc... and appears to be 'up to the end of R1', so handy if it does include some 'early in-play' as an indicator of likely performance.

FixdePitchmark

Was thinking of putting money on Garcia in a major this year - but in this event makes no sense, he is terrible here and 193th in putting at present.

So won't be putting anything on him for a while.

FixdePitchmark

In theory Bubba Watson is good odds - but jaysus , looking at his stats too , he has seriously fallen out of form , as in lucky to make a cut a present.

Bubba - is the sort of guy you would pick out to go against his poor form ?

But 199th in putting - I don't think you go to Augusta to find your putting form.

Westwood another outsider I fancied to go well again - but again, not very clever to be picking guys in poor putting form around Augusta.

redzerdrog

Londyn Sweet Week wrote: »

Boyles aren't paying as many places (6 1/5), but do have MoneyBack (as free bet) offer if you selection finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th (incl. ties), max 20, singles etc... and appears to be 'up to the end of R1', so handy if it does include some 'early in-play' as an indicator of likely performance.

Do you know if this is in the shops or online only?

redzerdrog

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

In theory Bubba Watson is good odds - but jaysus , looking at his stats too , he has seriously fallen out of form , as in lucky to make a cut a present.

Bubba - is the sort of guy you would pick out to go against his poor form ?

But 199th in putting - I don't think you go to Augusta to find your putting form.

Westwood another outsider I fancied to go well again - but again, not very clever to be picking guys in poor putting form around Augusta.

I think the putting stat is a little bit over stated when in comes to Augusta, look at Westwood for example he has never been a good putter yet has plenty of top 10s around here.

FixdePitchmark

redzerdrog wrote: »

I think the putting stat is a little bit over stated when in comes to Augusta, look at Westwood for example he has never been a good putter yet has plenty of top 10s around here.

I think to use Westwood is a poor example , because Westwood typically ha a better putting stat than what people actually think.

Westwood is a rare player that is such a good player in GIR that he gains tee to green.

Lee has 18 top tens in majors.

You will do well to pick a winner in last 10 years + that wasn't a great putter or putted well.

Spieth - Bubba when hot - willett

The one I can think of was Scott , but he has what is now considered an advantage the long putter.

redzerdrog

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I think to use Westwood is a poor example , because Westwood typically ha a better putting stat than what people actually think.

Westwood is a rare player that is such a good player in GIR that he gains tee to green.

Lee has 18 top tens in majors.

You will do well to pick a winner in last 10 years + that wasn't a great putter or putted well.

Spieth - Bubba when hot - willett

The one I can think of was Scott , but he has what is now considered an advantage the long putter.

You kinda make my point there as in strokes gained tee to green is far better stat when looking at what is needed around Augusta. However everyone always highlights the putting aspect.

threein99

I'm going for Tommy Fleetwood as my outside bet. Will add a few others once I have a proper look at the odds

Wombatman

Sweep I'm running at work.....


"The greatest natural laxative in the world."— Fuzzy Zoeller commenting on an approaching tee time for the first hole at the Masters.

Forget about green jackets, it's all about the green backs.

Deadline Wednesday @ 5pm. Only paid up entrants will be included. If you are not around get a buddy to pay you in.
€10 a head.
Winner takes all if <= 10 entrants. If > 10 1st 70% & 2nd 30%. If >= 20 1st 60%, 2nd 25% and 3rd 15%

Picks will only be published after deadline.

How to enter
Option 1 - Pick one from group 1 and three others not in group 2.
Group 1 (Max 1 Pick)
Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Rory McIlroy

Option 2 - Pick two from group 2 and two others not in group 1 or 2.
Group 2 (Max 2 Picks)
Hideki Matsuyama
Jason Day
Rickie Fowler
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose
Phil Mickelson
Henrik Stenson
Adam Scott
Justin Thomas
Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey
Bubba Watson
Tyrrell Hatton
Brandt Snedeker

· You can use lower ranked golfers in the place of higher ranker golfers i.e. If you want to pick only 1 from group 2, you can pick three from the remainder of the field. If you don’t want someone from the group 1 and 2 you can replace with any other golfer outside these groups. But you must pick four golfers.
. Be sure your golfer is in the field. See field below. Double check this yourself. Could be wrong\incomplete.

Scoring
· Your score will be the cumulative 72 hole score of each golfer. i.e. say you pick Mickleson, Hatton, Reed, Noren and they score 282, 280, 272, 280 then your score is 1114.
· The winner will be the person who’s 4 golfers have the lowest combined score.

Missing the cut
· If one of your players fails to make the cut you will get their 36 hole score x 2. i.e. if you pick Westwood and he fails to make the cut with a 36 hole score of 160 then he will get a score of 320 towards the combined score of your 4 golfers.

The Padraig Harrington Rule
· This rule is in place in case your player does a Paddy H. i.e. makes the cut but shoots 87 and 90 in the final two rounds.
· The contribution to the cumulative score of any golfer who makes the cut cannot be bigger than the 72 hole score assigned to any picked golfer who fails to make the cut.
· So if your players does a PH he will be assigned a score not greater than the score of the worst performing golfer (who has been selected by somebody in the competition) who failed to make the cut.

If your player is DQ'd, WD or taken by aliens & does not complete he will also receive equal of the worst picked score.

The Jim Furyk Rule
If you pick the same golfers as another entrant - tough sh1t.

The Field
CATEGORY 1: Masters Tournament Champions (Lifetime) Angel Cabrera (1) Fred Couples (1) Trevor Immelman, (1) Zach Johnson (1, 3, 18) Bernhard Langer (1) Sandy Lyle (1) Phil Mickelson (1, 3, 14, 17, 18) Larry Mize (1) Mark O’Meara (1) Jose Maria Olazabal (1) Charl Schwartzel (1, 17, 18) Adam Scott (1, 17, 18) Vijay Singh (1) Jordan Spieth (1, 2, 12, 16, 17, 18) Bubba Watson (1, 17, 18) Mike Weir (1) Danny Willett (1, 18) Ian Woosnam (1)

CATEGORY 2: U.S. Open Champions (Honorary, non-competing after five years) Dustin Johnson (2, 12, 16, 176, 18) Martin Kaymer (2, 5) Justin Rose (2, 6, 12, 18) Webb Simpson (2)

CATEGORY 3: British Open Champions (Honorary, non-competing after five years) Ernie Els (3) Rory McIlroy (3, 4, 12, 16, 17, 18) Henrik Stenson (3, 18)

CATEGORY 4: PGA Champions (Honorary, non-competing after five years) Jason Day (4, 5, 12, 15, 17, 18) Jason Dufner (4, 17) Jimmy Walker (4, 17, 18)

CATEGORY 5: Winners of The Players Championship (Three years) Rickie Fowler (5, 16, 18)

CATEGORY 6: Current Olympic Gold Medalist (One year) (Justin Rose qualified under multiple categories)

CATEGORY 7: Current US Amateur Champion (7-A) (Honorary, non-competing after one year); Runner-up (7-B) to the current US Amateur Champion Brad Dalke (7B) Curtis Luck (7A, 9)

CATEGORY 8: Current British Amateur Champion (Honorary, non-competing after one year) Scott Gregory (8)

CATEGORY 9: Current Asia-Pacific Amateur Champion (Curtis Luck qualified under multiple categories)

CATEGORY 10: Current Latin America Amateur Champion Toto Gana (10)

CATEGORY 11: Current U.S. Mid-Amateur Champion Stewart Hagestad (11)

CATEGORY 12: The first 12 players, including ties, in the previous year's Masters Tournament Daniel Berger (12, 16 17, 18) Paul Casey (12, 17, 18) Matthew Fitzpatrick (12, 18) J.B. Holmes (12, 14, 17, 18) Soren Kjeldsen (12, 18) Hideki Matsuyama (12, 15, 16, 17, 18) Brandt Snedeker (12, 17, 18) Lee Westwood (12, 18)

CATEGORY 13: The first four players, including ties, in the previous year's U.S. Open Jim Furyk (13, 18) Shane Lowry (13, 18) Scott Piercy (13, 18)

CATEGORY 14: The first four players, including ties, in the previous year's British Open Steve Stricker (14)

CATEGORY 15: The first four players, including ties, in the previous year's PGA Championship Branden Grace (15, 16, 18) Brooks Koepka (15, 18) Daniel Summerhays (15)

CATEGORY 16: Individual winners of PGA Tour events that award a full-point allocation for the season-ending Tour Championship, from previous Masters to current Masters Sergio Garcia (16, 18) Adam Hadwin (16) James Hahn (16) Russell Henley (16) Charley Hoffman (16) Mackenzie Hughes (16) Billy Hurley III (165) Si Woo Kim (16, 17) Russell Knox (16, 17, 18) Marc Leishman (16) William McGirt (16, 17, 18) Ryan Moore (16, 17, 18) Rod Pampling (16) Pat Perez (16) Jon Rahm (16) Patrick Reed (16, 17, 18) Brendan Steele (16) Brian Stuard (16) Hudson Swafford (16) Justin Thomas (16, 17, 18) Jhonattan Vegas (16, 17)

CATEGORY 17: Those qualifying for the previous year's season-ending Tour Championship Roberto Castro (17) Kevin Chappell (17, 18) Emiliano Grillo (17, 18) Kevin Kisner (17) Matt Kuchar (17, 18) Kevin Na (17, 18) Sean O'Hair (17) Gary Woodland (17, 18)

CATEGORY 18: The 50 leaders on the Final Official World Golf Ranking for the previous calendar year Byeong Hun An (18) Rafael Cabrera-Bello (18) Bill Haas (18) Tyrrell Hatton (18) Yuta Ikeda (18) Francesco Molinari (18) Alex Noren (18) Louis Oosthuizen (18) Thomas Pieters (18) Andy Sullivan (18) Bernd Wiesberger (18) Chris Wood (18)

CATEGORY 19: The 50 leaders on the Official World Golf Ranking published during the week prior to the current Masters Tournament Ross Fisher (19) Tommy Fleetwood (19) Hideto Tanihara (19) Jeunghun Wang (19)

AnneFrank

threein99 wrote: »

I'm going for Tommy Fleetwood as my outside bet. Will add a few others once I have a proper look at the odds

andy sullivan for my way outside bet

razorblunt

C'mon Brandon Grace, he's become THAT guy I back for the last year or so.

4068ac1elhodqr

redzerdrog wrote: »

Do you know if this is in the shops or online only?

Just seen it in an email, usually better doing online, with plenty of screengrabs as a sort of paper trail. Here's the terms & conditions.

AnneFrank

bubba claus is 40 to 1
andy sullivan 200 to 1
Thomas pieters 66 to 1
can't see westwood winning now, which is a pity, i've followed him around a few times,
great game and nice and fluent

AnneFrank

my brother had a tenner on harrington getting a hole in one and he got one on the last par three,
100 to one, talk about jammy, great memory though

vapor trails

Footoo wrote: »

While i agree thst his game is suited to Augusta, his record there isn't nearly as good as people think .

4 appearance - 3 missed cuts (including his last two appearances). His top 5 finish is over 4 years ago at this stage.

Saying that, I think a top 10 finish is a real possibility for him.

In fairness to Leishman his last two Masters had been a write because his Wife nearly died due to some rare illness. Particularly in 2015 when her Illness coincided with the week of the event I'm pretty sure. He seems in a much better place now and I agree at 60-70/1 he does appeal more than say a Sergio Garcia. Sergio has had some Top 10 finished in Augusta I cant ever remembering a Masters Sunday where he was knocking on the door of Contention.

Another guy who I think Might have top 10 finish is Charley Hoffman. Has made the cut each time he has qualified and has registered a T 10 in the process. Was actually 2nd for a large portion of 2015 behind Speith who was the run away winner that time.

PopePalpatine

vapor trails wrote: »

In fairness to Leishman his last two Masters had been a write because his Wife nearly died due to some rare illness. Particularly in 2015 when her Illness coincided with the week of the event I'm pretty sure. He seems in a much better place now and I agree at 60-70/1 he does appeal more than say a Sergio Garcia. Sergio has had some Top 10 finished in Augusta I cant ever remembering a Masters Sunday where he was knocking on the door of Contention.

Another guy who I think Might have top 10 finish is Charley Hoffman. Has made the cut each time he has qualified and has registered a T 10 in the process. Was actually 2nd for a large portion of 2015 behind Speith who was the run away winner that time.

How's Hoffman's performance when it's windy? i was thinking of putting a little bit on him each-way.

Armchair Andy

Gone with Koepka, Stenson, Cabrello Bello and Grace
All 25 e/w top 7.

martinkop

Soren Kjeldsen at 100/1. Good e/w prospect.

Will play well in the windy days and was T7 at his last masters so knows his way around here.

vapor trails

PopePalpatine wrote: »

How's Hoffman's performance when it's windy? i was thinking of putting a little bit on him each-way.

By American tour standards I'd say he's fairly average. The one thing about Augusta (Was there when Cabrera won) only the 1st, 2nd, 9th & 10th are high up. The rest of the holes are down in the base of the valley. Even at the the 10th tee shot is the widest fairway on the course. The green is well down hill must be at least a 40m elevation drop. I will agree the tee shot on 12 is tricky clubbing. Not so much because the hole is exposed but more so because of the extreme fine margins involved and the difficulty to gauge it at tee level.

Tom.D.BJJ

ForeRight wrote: »

If it's going to be very windy I'm going to go with Marc Leishman for a super tournament.
He hits a low stinging ball flight and has always been super in the wind.

Great shout. I might have a tickle on him EW, but I really think this is Rory's year

spacecoyote

Tom.D.BJJ wrote: »

Great shout. I might have a tickle on him EW, but I really think this is Rory's year

Re Leishman & low stingers, don't they generally say that Augusta plays into the hands of the high hitters though?

Dbu

Have a feeling in my water.....
Justin Thomas
Alex Noren
Thomas Pieters

Thank me next Monday:P

FixdePitchmark

lads - at the odds they are on

Spieth
or
Rory

who would you go for - or maybe both

Tilikum

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

lads - at the odds they are on

Spieth
or
Rory

who would you go for - or maybe both

I'd personally go for Spieth

2-1-2 last 3 outings there.

I won't be backing either though.

byronbay2

Not sure if this has been mentioned here already but be very careful when backing e/w with PP for The Masters. If you place a bet in a shop, your e/w terms are 1/5 odds for 7 places. If you bet online or on the App, the terms are 1/5 odds for 8 places. I can't understand why they are doing this but make sure you bet online/app if you are betting e/w with PP.

AnneFrank

Tilikum wrote: »

I'd personally go for Spieth

2-1-2 last 3 outings there.

I won't be backing either though.

i agree, Spieth is all over the place at the moment and Mcilroy needs to be on a hot streak to win, he's already been talking about how anxious he is aswell.
I wonder could Jason day do it, and dedicate it to his mother

bren2001

AnneFrank wrote: »

i agree, Spieth is all over the place at the moment and Mcilroy needs to be on a hot streak to win, he's already been talking about how anxious he is aswell.
I wonder could Jason day do it, and dedicate it to his mother

Jason Day has had a terrible start to the season (for obvious reasons), I'd have Speith and Rory well ahead of him to contend here. His mother being sick can only be a negative for him.

AnneFrank

bren2001 wrote: »

Jason Day has had a terrible start to the season (for obvious reasons), I'd have Speith and Rory well ahead of him to contend here. His mother being sick can only be a negative for him.

she's over the op though and said yesterday he feels refreshed and relieved,
time will tell i guess, but i fancy rory to miss the cut personally,
there is rain and a breeze after all

LuckyGent88

After plenty of debate and some analysis Iv gone for:

10e/w on Rory @ 8/1
5/e/w on Mickelson @ 30/1
5e/w on leishman @ 70/1
5e/w on schwartzel @ 80/1

All bases covered!!!!

Paul Casey frl @ 50/1

Mysterypunter

Dustin is doubtful with a back injury

tigerwood1

Put a tenner on lowry at 100/1 seemed to remember it being windy and rainy when he who irish open in style so you never known.
Put five each way on tyrell hatton at 60/1 was'nt a fan before matchplay but liked his honesty in post match interview, has a solid game and good putter should handle the wind.
Backed casey at 40/1 to be 1st round leader normally starts well but usually bottles at the weekend. Of the top three i think dustin johnson is the one to follow but would,nt be backing him at that price.

tigerwood1

Mysterypunter wrote: »

Dustin is doubtful with a back injury

http://www.skysports.com/golf/news/24512/10826759/dustin-johnson-suffers-back-injury-after-fall-on-the-eve-of-the-masters

I'am sure jimmy walker will be very upset to hear this.

tinpib

€5 e/w on Bubbs, Rickie Fowler and Leishman. Giddy up!

mickmackmcgoo

Backed branden grace 180/1 and Brooks koepka 85/1 on betfair

FixdePitchmark

I loaded onto Mcilroy fairly fast after injury.

But Spieth now Fav.

even paddy/power or punters don't back Rory as fav - a bit mad considering he is most talented golfer in world.

FixdePitchmark

This talk of Rahm as a chance is nuts - I'll never bet again on the Masters if Rahm wins - if he makes the cut fair play - top 20 outstanding.

FixdePitchmark

It is sort of obvious .

Spieth - the man here,

13/2 is still good odds and falling.

brady23

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

This talk of Rahm as a chance is nuts - I'll never bet again on the Masters if Rahm wins - if he makes the cut fair play - top 20 outstanding.

Why? Hes 12th in world, hits it over 300 on average ranks in the top 3 off the tee and 4th in strokes gained, hasn't displayed the putting chops of a Speith obviously but who has.
 I haven't backed him myself but I wouldn't think a Top 20 would be an outstanding achievement for him given he's so good off the tee and with the weather, anyone hitting far and straight won't be far off, obviously it's his first time around but he's quality. I couldn't take the price I'd agree with that though.

Mysterypunter

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

It is sort of obvious .

Spieth - the man here,

13/2 is still good odds and falling.

15-2 Ladbrokes, best price.

FixdePitchmark

brady23 wrote: »

Why? Hes 12th in world, hits it over 300 on average ranks in the top 3 off the tee and 4th in strokes gained, hasn't displayed the putting chops of a Speith obviously but who has.
 I haven't backed him myself but I wouldn't think a Top 20 would be an outstanding achievement for him given he's so good off the tee and with the weather, anyone hitting far and straight won't be far off, obviously it's his first time around but he's quality. I couldn't take the price I'd agree with that though.

First time round.

Can't see it - even best players ever have struggled for a top 50.

Spieth is a bizarre outlier.

See how he gets on .

brady23

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

Why? Hes 12th in world, hits it over 300 on average ranks in the top 3 off the tee and 4th in strokes gained, hasn't displayed the putting chops of a Speith obviously but who has.
 I haven't backed him myself but I wouldn't think a Top 20 would be an outstanding achievement for him given he's so good off the tee and with the weather, anyone hitting far and straight won't be far off, obviously it's his first time around but he's quality. I couldn't take the price I'd agree with that though.

First time round.

Can't see it - even best players ever have struggled for a top 50.

Spieth is a bizarre outlier.

See how he gets on .

I know where you're coming from Augusta is a completely different animal but realistically there is very little expectations on him.

He wouldn't be my pick but there is no one ranked nearly as high as him with with that sort of talent with so little pressure to perform.

FixdePitchmark

brady23 wrote: »

I know where you're coming from Augusta is a completely different animal but realistically there is very little expectations on him.

He wouldn't be my pick but there is no one ranked nearly as high as him with with that sort of talent with so little pressure to perform.

I know this is all finger in the air

But - I would look at it differently - this is the first time in his career he is playing at this level where he is now in with the big lads with eyes on him.

He has remarkable tee to green stats. (Incredible) - this has his scoring at a remarkable low level of 7th. But - I do not rate them courses in a scoring context versus Augusta. I think the speed of the course at Augusta is a game changer.

But around the green he is poor (93rd) and his putting stat is only ok (53rd or 128 - depending on what one you go by).

He is 190th from 6 feet - if you want to back that at Augusta - best of luck to you
He is 125th from inside 10 feet.

I'd be only delighted if we have another one on the cards with the big 4/5 players - but for guys to be putting him up there like Mcginley at this point is a bit mad (IMO) - I know Paul's opinion is more important.

He is a great example of a guy that GIR has him at the top of the game - I love that , but around this course, I think putting and short game is key - hence a guy like , Willet and spieth winning it, Phil, Tiger, etc.

brady23

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

brady23 wrote: »

I know where you're coming from Augusta is a completely different animal but realistically there is very little expectations on him.

He wouldn't be my pick but there is no one ranked nearly as high as him with with that sort of talent with so little pressure to perform.

i know this is all finger in the air

But - I would look at it differently - this is the first time in his career he is playing at this level where he is now in with the big lads with eyes on him.

He has remarkable tee to green stats. (Incredible)

But around the green he is poor (93rd) and his putting stat is only ok (53rd or 128 - depending on what one you go by).

He is 190th from 6 feet - if you want to back that at Augusta - best of luck to you

I'd be only delighted if we have another one on the cards with the big 4/5 players - but for guys to be putting him up there like Mcginley at this point is a bit mad (IMO) - I know Paul's opinion is more important.

He is a great example of a guy that GIR has him at the top of the game - I love that , but around this course, I think putting and short game is key - hence a guy like , Willet and spieth winning it, Phil, Tiger, etc.

Yeah all fair points and perhaps the sheer dominance by Speith at Augusta has opened the door to the idea that talented newcomers potentially have a decent shot at Augusta, like I said I couldn't have him at the price. Paul obv knows.
Course management is huge too and Speith is the best at it. He's probably who I would take at the top of the market but swinging for the fences.
I added Berger, Wang and Leishman last night to go along with Koepka, Snedeker and Fitzpatrick.
If 3 make the cut and 1 is in the final few groups I'll be happy, a sweat on Sunday would be fine. I had Willet last year so 2 years in a row would be nice.

qwabercd

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

First time round.

Can't see it - even best players ever have struggled for a top 50.

Spieth is a bizarre outlier.

See how he gets on .

Berger, grillo and Cabrera Bello all finished top 20 on their debuts last year (the former 2 were top 10). All inferior at the time to where rahm is now.

Day also finished 2nd on his debut in 2011 so to call spieth a bizarre outlier is wrong. Rahm is ranked higher now than both spieth and day were when they made their debuts.

I personally don't think he'll win but to say it would be outstanding for him to finish top 20 is a stretch to say the least. I'd have him about 50/50 to finish top 20. Could easily miss the cut all the same.

Footoo

Awful news for DJ. Was wondering what was going on when I saw his odds go to over 10/1 on betfair.

Hopefully for his sake it's only one of these short term back injuries and will be ok for this afternoon.

Great news for those of us who's backed Rory, Speith, Fowler etc.