Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

Keano

realdanbreen wrote: »

As an aside, I had Webb Simpson backed E/W . He finished -11 do I collect.
Docket said top 5 finish(dead heat rules apply)

We don't condone aftertiming around these parts! In future, can you please post a pic of the bet if you want to ask a question after the event has finished. Thanking you.

PARlance

realdanbreen wrote: »

As an aside, I had Webb Simpson backed E/W . He finished -11 do I collect.
Docket said top 5 finish(dead heat rules apply)

He finished T5, so you'll collect.

Dead heat rules will apply as there was 4 people tied 5th (positions 5,6,7,8) so you'll only get a fraction of what you would have if he had finished 5th on his own.

mighty magpie

NDWC wrote: »

That's absolute BS. They were T9 hence you should've got the full amount

read up on dead heat rules in golf. It's not BS

stylie

Happy4all wrote: »

anyone know what price Cantley was at the start?

66/1 in Ladbrookes on Thursday morning.

Deeper Blue

I had considered doing B Langer @ 11/10 for top German but glad I didn't in the end - he shot 80 on Sunday to finish 4 behind Kaymer.

Harding as top debutant was one that I'm sure a few had a punt on, presume the odds on that were decent.

mighty magpie wrote: »

read up on dead heat rules in golf. It's not BS

Thank you for your stellar insight

slave1

As usual, whoever I bet on just missed out on placing, Kuchar and then I went onto Poults too for old times sake

RoadRunner

RoadRunner wrote: »

I spread that $40 across:
rory 13/2
tiger 14/1
shane e/w 150/1

€10 went on Rory, €20 on tiger and €5/ew on shane :pac:

Rikand

One of my 15 ponies came in for an e/w. Can't say the name cause aftertiming

Tilikum17

PARlance wrote: »

He finished T5, so you'll collect.

Dead heat rules will apply as there was 4 people tied 5th (positions 5,6,7,8) so you'll only get a fraction of what you would have if he had finished 5th on his own.

That’s ridiculous. He was backed to finish e/w top 10 which he did. It would be different if he tied 5th with 10 people.

Edit - sorry just noticed he back him top 5

The real mccoy 91

Call it a gut feeling but I fancy a juicy figure price winning this week so thrown a few darts at

Casey 40s
Snedeker 125
Grillo 150
Stanley 200
Moore 125


Frl
Vegas 66
Grillo 90
Dahmen 90
Perez 100

IAMAMORON

Bethpage Black is really long. It favours big hitters, the greens are handy enough but well protected by bunkers and you need to have a good medium to long iron game.

Outright

Jason Day
Gary Woodland
Bubba Watson

Leader after round 1

Tony Finau - he always starts well and then bottles it.
Cameron Champ @ 200 /1 8 places. He is huuuuuuuuuge off the tee.
Lucas Bjerregaard

Rahm (just cant look past his driving this year)

Bubba (bubba goes well on bubba tracks no stats will ever back it up)

Thompson, berger, fisher to round it out.

I do really like Rory but I aint backing a golfer sub 13/1 unless its my only bet

LuckyGent88

Brooks win
Sergio place
Rickie place
Wallace place

Miley Byrne

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Bethpage Black is really long. It favours big hitters, the greens are handy enough but well protected by bunkers and you need to have a good medium to long iron game.

Outright

Jason Day
Gary Woodland
Bubba Watson

Leader after round 1

Tony Finau - he always starts well and then bottles it.
Cameron Champ @ 200 /1 8 places. He is huuuuuuuuuge off the tee.
Lucas Bjerregaard

Powers and Boyles paying 10 places

Hoki

Miley Byrne wrote: »

Powers and Boyles paying 10 places

Their prices are absolutely awful. Nearly every golfer is a worse price than Bet 365. Patrick Reed for example, 55/1 in Boyles and 60/1 in Paddy power with 10 places.
75/1 with 8 places on Bet365. I know where I won't be doing my betting......

Pissartist

Brooks win for me 10/1
Pieters each way 150/1
Good luck all

IAMAMORON

Miley Byrne wrote: »

Powers and Boyles paying 10 places

Only 8 places for first round leader. You need to concentrate harder, it's not good enough.

Raving_Magic

Quite fancy DJ, Sergio or Finau to be first round leader. Sergio has done well on the course and Finau seems to always start quick in majors. DJ record speaks for itself and a big hitter will surely be the winner this week and DJ is one of the best.

BillyBoy

Here's mine for the week, all each way. Like most, I've gone for longer hitters:

Jason Day @ 22/1
Tony Finau @ 33/1
Xander Schauffele @ 28/1
JB Holmes @ 200/1
Gary Woodland @ 66/1

martinkop

Have a feeling for Lowry his week 100/1

eagle eye

My team is Day, Cantlay, Howell III, Glover, Wise, Poulter and Louis.
Backed Casey, Cabrera Bello and Kokrak for 1st round leader.

Obviously Rory, DJ and Tiger are the big guns but I'll add some of them if their price goes out a bit.
I was all about Koepka but his driving and scramblng hasn't been up to scratch this season and you need to be top notch in those areas at this course.
Loved hearing Bruce explain about hanging around and not looking to win. He said you just gotta hang around and good things happen.

paulie21

Went with Fowler and Molinari

eagle eye

paulie21 wrote:

Went with Fowler and Molinari

Not a good start for your guys.

Rikand

Meant to get into the bookies this morning. ****e

Myself and the wife will be doing

Shuffles, Garcia, Reed, Stenson, Fleetwood, Wallace, bjerregard and 50 cent each way on the beemer!

CptMackey

I'm after having a punt on rory missing the cut at 6 to 1. Apart from that I think it hard to call the winner

Rikand

Absolutely sick that I didn't get into the bookies in time to do beemer to make the cut.

Mantis Toboggan

Rikand wrote: »

Absolutely sick that I didn't get into the bookies in time to do beemer to make the cut.

Should have just logged in on your phone!

Deeper Blue

Rikand wrote: »

Absolutely sick that I didn't get into the bookies in time to do beemer to make the cut.

What were the odds on that I wonder? I know he was about 2500/1 to win

Rikand

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Should have just logged in on your phone!

They want my passport and/or some other form of ID to make an account and that's a level of association I don't want to have with a bookies

Rikand

NDWC wrote: »

What were the odds on that I wonder? I know he was about 2500/1 to win

13/1 I think

Deeper Blue

Rikand wrote: »

13/1 I think

Wow if I'd known that beforehand I'd definitely have put a few euro on it

82 for beemer today though. Yikes

Rikand

NDWC wrote: »

Wow if I'd known that beforehand I'd definitely have put a few euro on it

82 for beemer today though. Yikes

He wasn't even the highest price. Think some of the club pros that made the cut were 18/1 or higher

Donald Trumped

I feel that Jim Furyk has a huge chance of winning the US Open in Pebble Beach this week. He is an accurate ball-striker as you can get. He will make very few mistakes. He is in the top 10 for greens in regulation stats on the PGA Tour and 1st in driving accuracy. He played brilliantly tee to green last week but could not hole a putt, on route to a solid top 30 finish in the Canadian Open. He is also a former US Open champion too.

At 125/1 with a small number of bookmakers and with most bookies paying out between 8 to 10 places, I feel this could be a productive week for the man nicknamed "Gentleman Jim".

tinpib

On Speith at 23, Molinari 48, Webb Simpson 55, DeChaembeau 80, Kaymer 150 on Betfair to win.


Also waiting to get bets matched on top 10 on Betfair as well.

IAMAMORON

High Low Tide times for Monterrey peninsula.

https://tides4fishing.com/us/california/monterey#_tides

IAMAMORON

Tee Times for Thursday.

https://www.usopen.com/tee-times.html

LuckyGent88

I’ll go with Brooks for the win again. 9/1 is a very fair price. How can you go against him anymore!!!

Not much said about Molinari so will go with him e/w

A few outsider bets in Jim Furyk and Martin Kaymer!! Both in good form.

IAMAMORON

I have backed McElroy to lead after round 1, 20/1 8 places with PP. Hopefully he is still in the zone.

I have had a mug bet on Phil Mickelson at 40's as well. Love to see him win a US open and he has won a few times around Pebble Beach before.

I have had a small ew on Snedeker for the same reason.

The wind is not forecast to be anything over 10 mph, however this morning's early tee times will benefit from a low tide and won't be as susceptible to gusts. Very late starters could also benefit from the tide going back out. Given that I have had a few ew flutters on the following early/late starters for round 1 leader, Justin Harding ( late ) and Scott Piercy (early), at 100/1 I won't miss the tenner tomorrow if they turn out to be a pile of shight.

Being a big hitter won't do you any harm around Pebble Beach but the big requirement is accuracy. US Open rough will be unplayable so the likes of Woodland, Koepke, Watson etc will all struggle if they are not peppering the fairway.

Looking forward to it.

callaway92

Cross-Posting from Gambling forum:

Viktor Hovland best amateur.

Won US Amateur Open at Pebble Beach in 2018 and was best amateur at the Masters this year.

Snedeker FRL
Mickelson, Justin Thomas, Oosthuizen, Rose outright.

spacecoyote

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I have backed McElroy to lead after round 1, 20/1 8 places with PP. Hopefully he is still in the zone.

I have had a mug bet on Phil Mickelson at 40's as well. Love to see him win a US open and he has won a few times around Pebble Beach before.

I have had a small ew on Snedeker for the same reason.

The wind is not forecast to be anything over 10 mph, however this morning's early tee times will benefit from a low tide and won't be as susceptible to gusts. Very late starters could also benefit from the tide going back out. Given that I have had a few ew flutters on the following early/late starters for round 1 leader, Justin Harding ( late ) and Scott Piercy (early), at 100/1 I won't miss the tenner tomorrow if they turn out to be a pile of shight.

Being a big hitter won't do you any harm around Pebble Beach but the big requirement is accuracy. US Open rough will be unplayable so the likes of Woodland, Koepke, Watson etc will all struggle if they are not peppering the fairway.

Looking forward to it.

If you look at the accuracy numbers though, they're not really enormously different, over 4 days doing a comparison of, for simplicities sake:

Furyk, Molinari, Tiger, Koepka, Rory & DJ

Over 56 holes, you'd be looking at (based on the average stats from PGA Tour):

Furyk - 41 Hit (average drive 275)
Molin - 38 Hit (average drive 291)
Tiger - 38 Hit (average drive 297)
Rory - 35 Hit (average drive 315)
Koep - 34 Hit (average drive 308)
DJ - 31 Hit (average drive 310)

The FIR above is with all clubs, the distance is with Driver (the FIR with Driver numbers are negligibly different)

So, Furyk will hit roughly 2 more Fairways per round than Brooks, but Brooks hits the ball, on average, roughly 30yrds longer than Furyk.

Versus Rory, its 1.5 more hit per round, but giving up 40yrds on Average

Absolutely, with that rough, accuracy is a big factor, but I'm pretty sure that I read that the winners at Pebble (at both the majors & the AT&T) have generally been at the top end of the field in Distance off the tee rather than accuracy.

Aren't the greens quite small in Pebble, which would favour the guys coming in with less club surely? Also, my understanding is they're expecting the course to play relatively soft, so would make it play a bit longer off the tee

IAMAMORON

spacecoyote wrote: »

Furyk - 41 Hit (average drive 275)
Molin - 38 Hit (average drive 291)
Tiger - 38 Hit (average drive 297)
Rory - 35 Hit (average drive 315)
Koep - 34 Hit (average drive 308)
DJ - 31 Hit (average drive 310)

So, Furyk will hit roughly 2 more Fairways per round than Brooks, but Brooks hits the ball, on average, roughly 30yrds longer than Furyk.

He is available at 80/1 10 places. That is a no brainer, you won't miss a fiver ew at that price on Monday morning.

I would be entirely confident of Molinari finishing top ten also. He was unlucky at Augusta in fairness.

Blud

spacecoyote wrote: »

If you look at the accuracy numbers though, they're not really enormously different, over 4 days doing a comparison of, for simplicities sake:

Furyk, Molinari, Tiger, Koepka, Rory & DJ

Over 56 holes, you'd be looking at (based on the average stats from PGA Tour):

Furyk - 41 Hit (average drive 275)
Molin - 38 Hit (average drive 291)
Tiger - 38 Hit (average drive 297)
Rory - 35 Hit (average drive 315)
Koep - 34 Hit (average drive 308)
DJ - 31 Hit (average drive 310)

The FIR above is with all clubs, the distance is with Driver (the FIR with Driver numbers are negligibly different)

So, Furyk will hit roughly 2 more Fairways per round than Brooks, but Brooks hits the ball, on average, roughly 30yrds longer than Furyk.

Versus Rory, its 1.5 more hit per round, but giving up 40yrds on Average

Absolutely, with that rough, accuracy is a big factor, but I'm pretty sure that I read that the winners at Pebble (at both the majors & the AT&T) have generally been at the top end of the field in Distance off the tee rather than accuracy.

Aren't the greens quite small in Pebble, which would favour the guys coming in with less club surely? Also, my understanding is they're expecting the course to play relatively soft, so would make it play a bit longer off the tee

The fact that the stats for accuracy are with all clubs is telling though. Furyk is accurate with driver so can hit driver in Pebble and get that distance. The others less accurate will not hit driver so wont get that distance.

That said, McIlroy can probably hit a 3 iron 265 yards or so, so wont exactly be miles behind others hitting driver.

It's all about iron play this week I reckon. Someone like Stenson should go well.

spacecoyote

Blud wrote: »

The fact that the stats for accuracy are with all clubs is telling though. Furyk is accurate with driver so can hit driver in Pebble and get that distance. The others less accurate will not hit driver so wont get that distance.

That said, McIlroy can probably hit a 3 iron 265 yards or so, so wont exactly be miles behind others hitting driver.

It's all about iron play this week I reckon. Someone like Stenson should go well.

OK, I put in the Accuracy off the tee number because people were saying players wouldn't generally need to hit driver as much.

But the Driver accuracy numbers would be:

Furyk - 42 Hit
Molinari - 37 Hit
Tiger - 36 Hit
Koepka - 34 Hit
Rory - 33 Hit
DJ - 31 Hit

So it really isn't significant. Rory hitting 2 less over 4 rounds, Brooks no change, Tiger 2 less, DJ no change, Molinari 1 less

Blud

spacecoyote wrote: »

OK, I put in the Accuracy off the tee number because people were saying players wouldn't generally need to hit driver as much.

But the Driver accuracy numbers would be:

Furyk - 42 Hit
Molinari - 37 Hit
Tiger - 36 Hit
Koepka - 34 Hit
Rory - 33 Hit
DJ - 31 Hit

So it really isn't significant. Rory hitting 2 less over 4 rounds, Brooks no change, Tiger 2 less, DJ no change, Molinari 1 less

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I'm not sure what point you are making here. What I see from that is that Rory cannot afford to hit driver, whereas Furyk possibly could.

The real mccoy 91

Backing more than I usually do this week came down on

Phil 55 ew
Tiger 12s ew
DJ 17/2 win
Spieth 22 ew
Sneds 50 ew

First round leader

Wiesberger 125 (6 places)
Van rooyen 100 (6 places)
Grillo 90 (5 places)
Kaymer 66 (8 places)

LuckyGent88

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

I’ll go with Brooks for the win again. 9/1 is a very fair price. How can you go against him anymore!!!

Not much said about Molinari so will go with him e/w

A few outsider bets in Jim Furyk and Martin Kaymer!! Both in good form.

Thrown money on Tiger and Fleetwood too!! Should have all bases covered

BOB81

Just went with all of the below each way - hoping it is a week where the slightly shorter course length puts a few more guys in contention than just the bombers.

Webb Simpson 40/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Erik van Rooyen 125/1
Rafa Cabrera bello 150/1

IAMAMORON

Blud wrote: »

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't. When he is playing well he won't miss a fairway ( ie Congressional, Kiawah, Wentworth ). You have to take a stance that he is either in form or not. After last weekend you would be forgiven for thinking that all is well.

In saying that his price his poor enough. But the bookies are really covering the place angle. They have 155 chances to get him beat.

spacecoyote

Blud wrote: »

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I'm not sure what point you are making here. What I see from that is that Rory cannot afford to hit driver, whereas Furyk possibly could.

I guess the point I was making was that maybe a focus on accuracy isn't the be all & end all given the stats seem to bear out that distance is a bigger predictor, historically, at Pebble.

But, admittedly, a top 10 for Furyk is probably a pretty solid bet, it's likely his best shout at that kind of result of all the majors

The real mccoy 91

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't. When he is playing well he won't miss a fairway ( ie Congressional, Kiawah, Wentworth ). You have to take a stance that he is either in form or not. After last weekend you would be forgiven for thinking that all is well.

In saying that his price his poor enough. But the bookies are really covering the place angle. They have 155 chances to get him beat.

For once in my life I found myself agreeing with McGinley this week I think it's 28 tournaments Rory has won the lowest winning score is -12 so when the course is set up to be got at he can have a field day he struggles in tough scoring conditions and that's the stamp of the us open. More value in the 9/2 for him to miss the cut this week than the 8/1 for him to win it imo