Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

Loafing Oaf

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't.

On this basis I'm going with
Both Rory and DJ top 5
McDowell and Lowry top Irish

Dbu

Jason Day, with Williams on bag..done deal:D

eagle eye

Koepka was favourite to be overnight leader after 6 holes of his round yesterday. His tee shots were poor for a lot of the round. He was straight on the range after he finished last night. The desire to win is as intense as ever obviously. I'd expect to see him make a big move today.

Viktor Hovland really impressed me yesterday. Went toe to toe with Brooks early doors, fell all the way back to level par and finished -2. Big future for this guy and I wouldn't rule out a good run in this tournament. He just looked so composed for the most of the round.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

McDowell and Lowry top Irish

G-Mac now apparently 20/1 with PP in this market, even though he's only a shot behind R-Mac.

spacecoyote

eagle eye wrote: »

Koepka was favourite to be overnight leader after 6 holes of his round yesterday. His tee shots were poor for a lot of the round. He was straight on the range after he finished last night. The desire to win is as intense as ever obviously. I'd expect to see him make a big move today.

Viktor Hovland really impressed me yesterday. Went toe to toe with Brooks early doors, fell all the way back to level par and finished -2. Big future for this guy and I wouldn't rule out a good run in this tournament. He just looked so composed for the most of the round.

Backed Hovland at around 6/1 for a top 30 finish, so hopefully he can keep it up.

An interesting mix at the top of the leaderboard after day 1, I think a lot of people have really slept on the likes of Rose. Another name up there that could be in the mix is Stenson. Given the bulk of the field are not hitting a lot of drives, that really plays into Stenson's game

Hitch2222

spacecoyote wrote: »

Backed Hovland at around 6/1 for a top 30 finish, so hopefully he can keep it up.

An interesting mix at the top of the leaderboard after day 1, I think a lot of people have really slept on the likes of Rose. Another name up there that could be in the mix is Stenson. Given the bulk of the field are not hitting a lot of drives, that really plays into Stenson's game

I looked at Stenson pre-match but an incredible lack of form this year deterred me. The Canadian was his only Top 10 this year, that said his form has certainly improved as the year has gone on

IAMAMORON

Winds forecast to be extremely light. I would expect more good scores today. Decent weather etc.

https://tides4fishing.com/us/california/monterey#_weather

I had a look at the prices there. PP only 8/1 about Koepke. I respect that he is beginning to look like Robocop out there , but he is 4 shots back. 8/1 is appalling.

At the same time I see Martin Kaymer available at 70/1 6 places. He is on the same mark, is well capable of pulling a Robocop and had a shocking start yesterday. He went on to shoot 6 birdies. I have had a nibble.

tayto lover

Hitch2222 wrote: »

I looked at Stenson pre-match but an incredible lack of form this year deterred me. The Canadian was his only Top 10 this year, that said his form has certainly improved as the year has gone on

Stenson seems to like links courses.
His form is returning.
I put a few euro e/w on him @ 50/1 along with a few others for an interest.

IAMAMORON

The wind is forecast to touch 10 mph later in the day, this will affect later groups if it starts to get gusty. The tide is rising from half three local onwards. It could be interesting later in the day for the leaders.

https://tides4fishing.com/us/california/monterey#_weather

Anyone out early and posting a good score etc.

I am not talking winds of biblical proportions here, but an 8mph difference could make a difference, particularly if it is picking up.

Early forecasts are for low winds tomorrow.

eagle eye

A 10 mpg wind in this course will affect things.
The big names that have struggled to this point will feel that if they put a score together they will be right back in this.
Fleetwood, Cantlay, Leishman and Day might all be worth a pop for top ten.

callaway92

callaway92 wrote: »

Cross-Posting from Gambling forum:

Viktor Hovland best amateur.

Won US Amateur Open at Pebble Beach in 2018 and was best amateur at the Masters this year.

Snedeker FRL
Mickelson, Justin Thomas, Oosthuizen, Rose outright.

Louis letting me down when it matters today!

Rikand

GMAC the only pony I have left

IAMAMORON

I have a golden rule on final day punting that I never select a golfer who is worse than 6 shots offs. This allows for the leader to capitulate and a golfer to shoot a 65 and win the tournament. It rarely happens however.

There is actually only 6 people who realistically can now win. In fairness I would lean towards Woodland to bottle before Rose ( if he does bottle ). Rose is not a panicker and won't get the heebies if a chase develops.

However I have looked at some of the prices on players on -4, If you take the line that both Woodland and Rose as a group have a nightmare. ie slow play winds them up, or collectivity they have a bad day there are some juicy prices available, albeit only 3 places now.

Koepke looks dangerous at -7. He is slowly turning into one of the all time greats. A 3rd US open in a row would be something else. When you drive into the rough, hack out into deep rough 10 foot from the hole, hack out to 30 feet and then hold a downhill swerver for par you have to really check yourself. Other players would have cursed the ground, broke a club and double bogeyed.

tobsey

Slow play ahead won’t bother Rose and Woodland. The penultimate group had walked off the 18th green before they even teed off. Rose is slow, it didn’t seem to bother woodland yesterday though.

eagle eye

The danger for Woodland and Rose is that they get into matchplay mode. Somebody could creep up on them very quickly.
It's very easy in their position to fall into the trap of marking each and taking the safe option if the other guy is in trouble.

FixdePitchmark

tobsey wrote: »

Slow play ahead won’t bother Rose and Woodland. The penultimate group had walked off the 18th green before they even teed off. Rose is slow, it didn’t seem to bother woodland yesterday though.

Rose (I don't like anyway), but his putting routine is a joke.

Pissartist

I fancy Brooks if he can hole a few putts

Rikand

Couple of interest bets on Robert Rock, Lucas Bjerragard and Gmac(former south of ireland winner at lahinch)

callaway92

Ryan Fox
Soren Kjeldsen
Graeme McDowell

ionadnapokot

I’m on Rahm, Stenson & Xander S
Staying clear of Tiger, Brooks, DJ and Rose at the top of the market
Managed to get Hovland at 200s during the PGA.
Looking for another 150+...Paul Warwing 250/1. looked good at Lahinch T7 and T48 in Scotland.
Considered Harrington but his putting put me off!

PhuckHugh22

ionadnapokot wrote: »

I’m on Rahm, Stenson & Xander S
Staying clear of Tiger, Brooks, DJ and Rose at the top of the market
Managed to get Hovland at 200s during the PGA.
Looking for another 150+...Paul Warwing 250/1. looked good at Lahinch T7 and T48 in Scotland.
Considered Harrington but his putting put me off!

Viktor Hovland isn't qualified for the Open.

BOB81

scott, ryan fox, sergio and pepperell - all small e/w bets for a bit of interest

ionadnapokot

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Viktor Hovland isn't qualified for the Open.

Ah no!
Because he turned pro after us open. Bastard!

PhuckHugh22

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Ah no!
Because he turned pro after us open. Bastard!

You should get your money back. If you don't then make sure you contact your bookmaker support.

I think Bjerregaard might be a good outside bet at 150/1.

21st in the masters and 16th in the pga, won dunill links last year

And an each way on Clarke at 500 wouldn't hurt!

OffalyMedic

Went for Rahm and McIlroy as my main.
Then my usuals of poulter, Lowry and fowler.
All bets various amounts e/w

Chopper83

Scrambling will be key obviously, I like Rahm, Kuchar and Cantlay who is massively underrated golfer despite his recent success.

The real mccoy 91

Chopper83 wrote: »

Scrambling will be key obviously, I like Rahm, Kuchar and Cantlay who is massively underrated golfer despite his recent success.

Underrated possibly but certainly not underpriced imo 28s is a bit skinny for me for the open any way

IAMAMORON

Is this the actual draw for Thursday or just for today's practice?

https://www.theopen.com/teetimes

callaway92

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Is this the actual draw for Thursday or just for today's practice?

https://www.theopen.com/teetimes

That's the actual. Round 1 is the default there. You can change to round 2 to see the corresponding times for them groups.

IAMAMORON

See tide times and winds for Thursday and Friday.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Portrush-Northern-Ireland/forecasts/latest/six_day

That being the case I am going to avoid backing players teeing off from 11 to 3 o'clock. That forecast wind of 25mph looks fooking nasty tbh. Throw in a few sideway showers and a lot of those players will be spitting the dummy, particularly if it is sharp.

In saying all that the high tide is at 8.27, so if the wind is getting up then any early starters are in trouble.

I have gone for 2 early starters and 4/5 later starters. If the forecasts are correct anyone teeing off after 4 pm could have a nice calm round of golf.

Earlies - Andy Sullivan 80/1 and Zander Lombard. 100/1
Afternoons - Lucas Bjerragard , Andrew Wilson ( 300/1) , Matt Wallace . John Rahm, Robert Rock ( 125/1 )

These are all first round leader fancies. In fairness I will have a go at a top 20 player with a bit of value before the start of play. With those winds etc I can't be having any of the Yanks, maybe Tiger or Sneddekar. I will have one big bet before the start and then powder dry until Sunday morning.

I still think anyone within 4/5 shots on Sunday morning could win it if good enough. There might be some nice value around then.

Apart from that some off the value available is shocking.

Pissartist

Rickie Fowler/Tiger Woods/Pat Reed
Mcilroy to miss the cut

Chopper83

Wouldn't be betting on Tiger after seeing him yesterday, his press conference there also told a tale of lack of sharpness.

Chopper83

Chopper83 wrote: »

Wouldn't be betting on Tiger after seeing him yesterday, his press conference there also told a tale of lack of sharpness.

Can you elaborate? Do you think he's in pain?

The real mccoy 91

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Jumping on the cheeseburger train this morning 5 places @28s

Also doing an each way double with stenson for next week 6 places @33s

Copied from the other golf thread last week so stenson is my main dart this week.

Adding in Fowler @35s 10 places
Knox 150 10 places
Noren 125 10 places

Will pick out a couple of first round leaders tomorrow

castletownman

Gone for Xander and Dechambeau e/w at 20s and 40s respectively. Xander is perhaps a bit lowely priced given the size of the field, but I have backed him for a couple of years now and am not one for changing

Picked Louis Oosthuizen to be leader after the first round at a good price of 50/1. The fella knows how to blaze up a field.

4068ac1elhodqr

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you elaborate? Do you think he's in pain?

Maybe the other poster meant the lack of recent competitive play which (may) allude to (undisclosed) physical issue(s). Of course that's only speculation.

Unlikely to win, but might your 500/1 Clarke suggestion might have a better market option in the way of '1stRL' in familiar (very) early fairweather surrounds.

This is via the other main vendor doing 8pl in this, i.e. triple price @301, compared to the green lads who are only 100.
'Spoils also have (widely shortening) Putnam @151 with the best price-place combination for Thursday's round.

FixdePitchmark

Good value on Molinari at 25/1 , got on him today
Also Stenson
and for the laugh Westwood @100/1 E/W

Mantis Toboggan

Sticking with the 3 balls on the first day, have backed Rory at 11/10, Stenson at 6/4 Andy Sullivan 5/4 & Harrington 21/20 to win their group.

FixdePitchmark

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Sticking with the 3 balls on the first day, have backed Rory at 11/10, Stenson at 6/4 Andy Sullivan 5/4 & Harrington 21/20 to win their group.

Kind of a tough bet - when Woodland and Casey out with Rory.

Mantis Toboggan

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Kind of a tough bet - when Woodland and Casey out with Rory.

Yeah but I think 11/10 is decent price. I'd expect him to get off to a flyer.

billy3sheets

I've done Harrington, Westwood, Weisberger and Kuchar for Top 10.
Harrington at 28/1

callaway92

Stenson main
Wallace
Poulter
Sullivan
Rock (tiny bet)

Not much going on with the weather it looks like so far.

Adding Reed and Day, both have elite short games and former major winner.
Looks like both have been working on thier t2g game hard as both have improved in this area over the past few weeks at the expensive of the short game.

If they can hold the t2g and bring the short game back up (which shouldn't be too hard) I can see them contend this week

(90/1 and 40/1)

Sharp MZ700

Did James Sugrue in his 3 ball on Thursday at 3/1. All I need is the Hoff to get that neck twitch going on his downswing.

eagle eye

Really like Matthew Fitzpatrick for this. Accurate off the tee, solid iron player and a good putter. I like Kuchar and Stenson too. I've also backed Haotong Li, Pepperell and put a few schillings on Jazz and Brandon Stone. Backed Stone for top forty finish too. I've backed the first five without the Big 5(McIlroy, Koepka, Woods, Johnson and Rahm). I'm mulling over whether to go steaming in on Koepka. I already backed him at 50's to lead after the first round and win.

Funny you say that I was just struggling who to put in the last spot on my main draftkings team and it was between Pepperal and Fitz, I landed on pepperal results in bigger tournamnets have just been better and seems to be a better links player then Fitz.

Fitz is trending nicely though, a surprising world ranking when I looked at it of 27th but most of his results in slightly lesser tournaments.

Not to knock the bet by any means, I'm still playing Fitz in teams so I hope you run well this week as I've many of those golfers picked

Current form is terrible but a winner on tour this year, Sung Knag

Has played 6 majors made the cut in 6, 1 top 10 which happened this year.

I don't get into sub markets often but he could be worth a punt top 10s or 20s.

Very erratic golfer but looking through his top finishes seems to do well/ok in the bigger ones

Hitch2222

Fitzpatrick is my biggest bet followed by Lowry & Xander.

Smaller bets on Bjerregaard & Glover.

Stenson & Woodland FRL