Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

PARlance

eagle eye wrote: »

Tiger wasn't the gold standard in iron play. Tigers all around game was what made him, huge drives, great irons, great scrambling, great putting. He was ultra consistent which made him the greatest but I'm not sure he was the best in any category just top five/ten in them all. Garcia was better off the tee, Furyk was a better iron player, Mickelson a better scrambler, Zach Johnson a better putter.

I think it's a bit of an understatement to say that Tiger wasn't the best in any aspect of the game during his career.

Golfhead65

With all the talk of Bryson, is there odds on him missing the cut??

redarmy

Golfhead65 wrote: »

With all the talk of Bryson, is there odds on him missing the cut??

6/1

The Mig

Golfhead65 wrote: »

With all the talk of Bryson, is there odds on him missing the cut??

13/2 on 365 when I checked earlier.

Gone with JT myself. With a couple of swings at bigger priced players

monkeybutter

eagle eye wrote: »

Tiger wasn't the gold standard in iron play. Tigers all around game was what made him, huge drives, great irons, great scrambling, great putting. He was ultra consistent which made him the greatest but I'm not sure he was the best in any category just top five/ten in them all. Garcia was better off the tee, Furyk was a better iron player, Mickelson a better scrambler, Zach Johnson a better putter.

Any stats to back any of this up

LuckyGent88

eagle eye wrote: »

Tiger wasn't the gold standard in iron play. Tigers all around game was what made him, huge drives, great irons, great scrambling, great putting. He was ultra consistent which made him the greatest but I'm not sure he was the best in any category just top five/ten in them all. Garcia was better off the tee, Furyk was a better iron player, Mickelson a better scrambler, Zach Johnson a better putter.

Of topic here but WHAT??

His iron game is what set him apart. His distance control was and still is ridiculous. The way he controlled his trajectory, shape the ball both ways, high and low was just so much better than anybody else in the game. Then add in his initial power advantage with his putting he was unstoppable

eagle eye

monkeybutter wrote:

Any stats to back any of this up

They're all over the PGA tour website I'm sure. I haven't looked but I'd be confident Sergio would be consistently higher in driving categories, Furyk in iron play, Mickelson in scrambling and Zach in putting.
My opinions are based on watching them play their whole professional careers.

eagle eye

LuckyGent88 wrote:

Of topic here but WHAT??

His iron game is what set him apart. His distance control was and still is ridiculous. The way he controlled his trajectory, shape the ball both ways, high and low was just so much better than anybody else in the game. Then add in his initial power advantage with his putting he was unstoppable

His consistent high level is what set him apart. His ability on the clutch too.
His high level in all facets of the games was unreal.
No one area was remarkable compared to his level in the other areas.

You put him in the middle of the fairway hitting 100 shots from the same distance as Furyk and Stenson he isn't walking away with the closest to the pin very often. He'll walk away with the lowest average score though.

LuckyGent88

eagle eye wrote: »

His consistent high level is what set him apart. His ability on the clutch too.
His high level in all facets of the games was unreal.
No one area was remarkable compared to his level in the other areas.

You put him in the middle of the fairway hitting 100 shots from the same distance as Furyk and Stenson he isn't walking away with the closest to the pin very often. He'll walk away with the lowest average score though.

I’m pretty sure it’s been well said by his fellow pros that it’s his Iron play that has always set him fully apart from the rest. We will just have to disagree. No point to keep arguing.

Anyway moving onto the gambling again.

Can’t see winner coming from outside Top25 in the world rankings really. So outside the top 20 in the betting really. Just so many to choose from and you can make a case for all.

Bryson- it’s just sets up for him. He will have a massive advantage over 95% of the field and if his short game stays great he will be very hard to beat. Odds are just too short now.

DJ- in ridiculous form and has been trending very in the right direction around the course. It’s said that the pique statistical year for a players win is in their 8-10th year at the course.

Brooks comes right back into form and he kind of let Tiger win last year!!!! He did the right thing.

JT hasn’t had the greatest record around the course but it has to suit him.

Rory could easily produce the magic now the spotlight is less on him.

Rahm is just Mr. Consistent.

With no crowds the chances of a rookie winner will also increase and we have also seen two first time major winners this year already.

That brings Morikawa and Wolff into the reckoning. Both of which have excellent games to suit Augusta.

I’ll go for a few slightly higher odds outsiders in:

Cantlay @ 25/1 in form and has course form.
Hatton @ 28/1 had a brilliant year and not afraid of the big events.
Bubba @ 33/1 has been trending nicely and obviously has a ridiculous love for Augusta.

Speith in top 10 after round 1. I’d love to see him do well. Doesn’t need to be too accurate around here and obviously just loves the place.

Also keep an eye on a 62 to be shot during the tournament. Could have soft conditions.

Enjoy everyone.

Raving_Magic

Anyone have any interesting first round leaders to go with? Thinking DeChambeau might start strong tomorrow but is he worth it at 14/1

costacorta

Raving_Magic wrote: »

Anyone have any interesting first round leaders to go with? Thinking DeChambeau might start strong tomorrow but is he worth it at 14/1

I just picked a few earlier only for a €1 as pure lottery and keep me interested. First rd leader is like grand national stick a pin in and hope for the best ..

Dr. Bre

Fred couples normally starts well

iluvfatfrogs

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

Due to lockdown and different time of the year, I plan on watching every min of action for the first time ever:
5 points Win on Ram 12/1 (PP Boost)
1 point e/w on Reed 33/1 (PP Boost)
1 point e/w on Fleetwood 40/1

Gut feeling added a 10 point win on DJ

Susiequattro

1st round leader McIlroy 22/1
Outright winner
matsyuama 25/1
Finau 25/1
E/W
Molinari 100/1
Van Rooyen 140/1

Loafing Oaf

Raving_Magic wrote: »

Anyone have any interesting first round leaders to go with? Thinking DeChambeau might start strong tomorrow but is he worth it at 14/1

Someone said upthread he's starting very early when it's going to be freezing

eagle eye

I suppose I better put up my bets with all the chatting I've done on the thread over the last day.

So statisically from both a course form and current form point of view the outstanding favourite has to be Dustin Johnson. Statisicially over the last four years at the Masters DJ's average finish is 3.0 and over the past ten weeks on tour he's played three times with an average finish again of 3.0 so nobody is coming here hotter and he owns the best average finish.
Problem for me is I question his ability in the clutch in majors. For all his talent and how often he has dominated over the last 7 or so years he still has only one major to show for it and some pretty poor finishes.

Xander Schauffele has the game for sure for this but I have him in a category with Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau who just struggle to win. I'm giving Finau a chance here by the way but I'll explain that later.

Justin Thomas just keeps disappointing at Augusta. Rory seems to be in a situation that although he's improving of late he still puts in one bad round to ruin everything. He has to show me he's not going to do that before I can back him.

Bryson could run away with this or he could be at the other end of the field. The rain is there today and it'll be wet tomorrow on the fairways but there'll be two dry days on Friday and Saturday. I'll tell you that in my opinion Bryson should be shorter for the first round lead than he is to win the tournament. I think those prices being switched around would be about right. I'd recommend him for the first round lead but not for the win. He's shown too often that he struggles on bendy, pacy greens and he isn't great with the chip and run either which is something you need to be great with at Augusta.

Jon Rahm too has the game for it but I've yet to see him perform to the level required to win a major. He's gotten close but has fallen away at the death and I don't like that.

My big bet is on Brooks Koepka. This is his first major since the British Open without an injury. He finished strongly on Saturday and Sunday in the Houston Open and I want him on my team with his majors record.

I'm going Tony Finau as well. The reason for this is because he finished tied 10th in his Masters debut two years ago and then tied 5th last year but the bigger reason is an interview I watched on tv where he discussed his difficulties with Covid and his aims. He seemed a lot more focused than I've ever seen him. He had a real tough time with covid symptoms and he was away from his family for the whole of that. He came across like the world owes him after that, something I've never seen in him before so I'm willing to give him a shot this week.

Next up is Matthew Wolff, a big hitter and very straight of late and in great form too. This guy is a future world no.1 I think and I want him on my team.

Now to the outsiders. I've a lot backed this week.

First up is Jason Kokrak attempting to do what no man has done since Fuzzy Zoeller and win on his debut. The reason I'm on him is recent form which is very good and how high he hits the ball which is a huge advantage at Augusta.

Ian Poulter tries hard here, tied 12th last year, tied 6th in 2015 and two top 50 finsihes in between in his four starts. He is on very good form heading to Augusta so worth a small wager at a nice price.

Justin Rose seems to be just finding his feet and has a very good record here with two runner-up finishes to go with a 10th and 12th and a missed cut last year.

Si Woo Kim finsihed 24th on his debut in '18 followed by 21st last year. He is playing much better golf this year so I am adding him to my team.

I watched Francesco Molinari in Houston last week and he put in a good performance. I remember what happened last year and how his game went to pot after it. Houston was the first time he looked like his old self and I'd imagine he is going in to Augusta with a bit of confidence after that. He's just too big of a price to ignore at 90/1.

Finally at 300/1 I just couldn't leave out Justin Harding who finished tied 12th on his debut last year. He is an excellent putter on tricky greens and a great scrambler. He needs to score on the par fives though to make it happen. That's the key for him.

My bets:

Brooks Koepka 25 ew @ 18/1
Tony Finau 10 ew @ 25/1
Matthew Wolff 10 ew @ 30/1
Juston Rose 5 ew @ 55/1
Jason Kokrak 5 ew @ 55/1
Francesco Molinari 2.50 ew @ 90/1
Ian Poulter 2.50 ew @ 100/1
Si Woo Kim 2.50 ew @ 100/1
Justin Harding 2.50 ew @ 300/1

Best of luck everybody and I hope like me that you'll enjoy this early Christmas present.

Loafing Oaf

I'm on Hatton and Rose outright, Weisberger top European and Westwood top GB & I. Good luck to us all:D

monkeybutter

eagle eye wrote: »

They're all over the PGA tour website I'm sure. I haven't looked but I'd be confident Sergio would be consistently higher in driving categories, Furyk in iron play, Mickelson in scrambling and Zach in putting.
My opinions are based on watching them play their whole professional careers.

So find it.

As if being top 5 in iron play for what 15 years isn't gold standard anyway

But plenty of years he was top 1

eagle eye

Proximity to hole on PGA tour from when it started in 2001 to 2008.

2001: Furyk 3'11" Tiger 22'11"
2002: Furyk 30'8" Tiger 34'1"
2003: Furyk 31'7" Tiger. 34'4"
2004: Furyk no stats Tiger 35'2"
2005: Furyk 32'6" Tiger 35'8"
2006: Furyk 31'8" Tiger 31'7"
2007: Furyk 32'4" Tiger 32' 2"
2008: Furyk 34'4" Tiger no stats

PARlance

eagle eye wrote: »

Proximity to hole on PGA tour from when it started in 2001 to 2008.

2001: Furyk 3'11" Tiger 22'11"
2002: Furyk 30'8" Tiger 34'1"
2003: Furyk 31'7" Tiger. 34'4"
2004: Furyk no stats Tiger 35'2"
2005: Furyk 32'6" Tiger 35'8"
2006: Furyk 31'8" Tiger 31'7"
2007: Furyk 32'4" Tiger 32' 2"
2008: Furyk 34'4" Tiger no stats

It's easy enough find stats to suit, this was the first one that came up for me.

carq

My picks - Win only

Bryson DeChambeau 15 @ 8/1
Xander Schauffele 10 @ 16/1
Zach Johnson 5 @ 370/1
Tony Finau 10 @ 38/1
Patrick Cantlay 20 @ 29/1
Jason Kokrak 10 @ 99/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 10 @ 95/1
Cameron Smith 10 @ 140/1
Chez Reavie 10 @ 901/1



May add Byeong Hun An at 520/1 and Matsuyama at 33/1.

Likely first round leader bets - Westwood 55/1 ; Langer 360/1 ; Rose 45/1

tinpib

Didn't spend too much time studying the form from previous years and unusually for me went for lads towards the top of the market.

Rahm, Matsuyama, Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed all e/w

Plasandrunt

Have Schauffle ew @ 14s

Then DeChambeau top 10 @ evens and Finau top 20 @ 10/11 used as roll up bets for next years Cheltenham.

ThewhiteJesus

carq wrote: »

My picks - Win only

Bryson DeChambeau 15 @ 8/1
Xander Schauffele 10 @ 16/1
Zach Johnson 5 @ 370/1
Tony Finau 10 @ 38/1
Patrick Cantlay 20 @ 29/1
Jason Kokrak 10 @ 99/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 10 @ 95/1
Cameron Smith 10 @ 140/1
Chez Reavie 10 @ 901/1



May add Byeong Hun An at 520/1 and Matsuyama at 33/1.

Likely first round leader bets - Westwood 55/1 ; Langer 360/1 ; Rose 45/1

You nearly bet the whole field !!
I went with fritelli and fitzpatrick and Wolff e/w but I have a feeling Bryson will demolish the course and mcilroy will miss the cut

gaelar29

McIlroy ew, as main bet and smaller bet on Todd ew..

De Chambeau ew for first round leader and wee first rounder leader bets on Fritelli, Todd and Griffen

The Tetrarch

Brooks Koepka 100 at 19s
Corey Connors 50 at 250

eagle eye

Looking at the 1st round 3balls.

Like Poulter playing with Spieth and Woodland who are completely out of form.
Si Woo Kim playing with McDowell and Lashley.
Very short price but Jason Day playing with Schwartzel and Gallegos looks good.
Lanto Griffin playing with Tyler Duncan and Vijay Singh.

Last one, don't fancy it as much but still looks good is Matt Wallace playing with Cabrero-Bello and Mike Weir.

eoghan104

eagle eye wrote: »

Looking at the 1st round 3balls.

Like Poulter playing with Spieth and Woodland who are completely out of form.
Si Woo Kim playing with McDowell and Lashley.
Very short price but Jason Day playing with Schwartzel and Gallegos looks good.
Lanto Griffin playing with Tyler Duncan and Vijay Singh.

Last one, don't fancy it as much but still looks good is Matt Wallace playing with Cabrero-Bello and Mike Weir.

Did three of these (left out Day) in a treble and wrote it off when I saw Poulter struggling. Just noticed my balance increased and saw this came in! Good man EE

eagle eye

eoghan104 wrote:

Did three of these (left out Day) in a treble and wrote it off when I saw Poulter struggling. Just noticed my balance increased and saw this came in! Good man EE

Delighted for anybody that followed me.

I thought I was done too with Lanto and Poulter struggling.
Did doubles on Day/Griffin and Poulter/Si Woo.
Then did a multiple four folds and five fold with Wallace added to them. Nice day. .

costacorta

eagle eye wrote: »

Delighted for anybody that followed me.

I thought I was done too with Lanto and Poulter struggling.
Did doubles on Day/Griffin and Poulter/Si Woo.
Then did a multiple four folds and five fold with Wallace added to them. Nice day. .

Well done I like doing a few 3 balls too , I did Tiger , Day , Woolf and Weisberger 2 up waiting on other 2 but they have a chance ..

eagle eye

So I got up this morning, hadn't looked at the betting since it began and made up my own book in my head.
Head of the market for me was Thomas and Tiger at 5/1, DJ at 7/1, Schauffele and Simpson at 12/1. Rahm, Wolff and DeChambeau at 16/1, then Casey, Scott and Matsuyama at 20/1.
Tiger at 18/1 is a gift that needs to be jumped on.
I've added him to my team.

iluvfatfrogs

gaelar29 wrote: »

McIlroy ew, as main bet and smaller bet on Todd ew..

De Chambeau ew for first round leader and wee first rounder leader bets on Fritelli, Todd and Griffen

What odds was Fritelli?

Dr. Bre

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

What odds was Fritelli?

I got fritelli at 200s on PP. for overall not first round leader sorry

gaelar29

iluvfatfrogs wrote: »

What odds was Fritelli?

100/1, 8 places.....Hopefully can keep it up

iluvfatfrogs

gaelar29 wrote: »

100/1, 8 places.....Hopefully can keep it up

Well he is definitely placing... and in with a very good chance of an o/r W....

eagle eye

gaelar29 wrote:

100/1, 8 places.....Hopefully can keep it up

Looking really good, Im the danger man to you. Hope it comes up, good luck.

iluvfatfrogs

I'm on Casey... hence the keen interest

eagle eye

I'm doing the same 3ball bets as yesterday and then adding a few more for the earlier starts.

Going to do fourfolds and an accumulator on Thomas, Scott, Wolff, Rose and Scheffler.
Doing a straight double on Rose and Thomas as well.

Degag

I have an interesting one with Finau. Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1. The difference being that i would only get 6 places as opposed to the 10 places pre-tournament. Any opinions on how to go? If he binked it it would be worth about 200 quid more by cashing out and re-investing.

gaelar29

Degag wrote: »

I have an interesting one with Finau. Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1. The difference being that i would only get 6 places as opposed to the 10 places pre-tournament. Any opinions on how to go? If he binked it it would be worth about 200 quid more by cashing out and re-investing.

As said before, McIlroy was my main bet for the weekend but late last night, put 10ew on Finau at 40s (7 places)...

eoghan104

Degag wrote: »

I have an interesting one with Finau. Put €10 e/w on him @28/1. I can now cast out for €23 and change.

I could put 11.50 e/w on him now at 40/1. The difference being that i would only get 6 places as opposed to the 10 places pre-tournament. Any opinions on how to go? If he binked it it would be worth about 200 quid more by cashing out and re-investing.

Defo cash out and go again, the place will not be worth the difference between the win amounts.

Degag

eoghan104 wrote: »

Defo cash out and go again, the place will not be worth the difference between the win amounts.

Cheers, yeah it jumped to 25 quid just after my post so pushed the button then.

ThewhiteJesus

Dr. Bre wrote: »

I got fritelli at 200s on PP. for overall not first round leader sorry

250 for me ! Only have 2.50 each way though

Username exists

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

250 for me ! Only have 2.50 each way though

There'll be no only if he wins. It will be a nice chunk of change. Best of luck

Dr. Bre

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

250 for me ! Only have 2.50 each way though

Nothing only about that ! Good luck

eagle eye

eoghan104 wrote:

Defo cash out and go again, the place will not be worth the difference between the win amounts.

Well it's the decision that has to be made.
Is 3 places with the potential payout of 63 euro with holding onto the bet.

I agree with you that cash out and reinvest is a better option.

Golfhead65

De Cham bo to miss cut is looking good, I did flag it up earlier in thread, getting a decent run out of Shaufflle as well, totally different watching without crowds but at least we have no Mashed Potato chants

Loafing Oaf

Bit surprised to see Rahm heading the market. Would have thought DJ and JT are bigger beasts in this jungle.

simongurnick

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bit surprised to see Rahm heading the market. Would have thought DJ and JT are bigger beasts in this jungle.

Probably due to having 6 holes left in rd 2. All the big dogs in the mix, bar bryson. Next two days should be good

gaelar29

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Bit surprised to see Rahm heading the market. Would have thought DJ and JT are bigger beasts in this jungle.

Looks a right minefield at the top of the leaderboard at the moment re picking a winner.

CT Pan at 100/1, 2 shots behind leaders and still 2 holes to play, seems worth a small punt ew..

Am def going for Reed at 25s ew, 6 under and still 7 holes to play of second round,,(33s now)