The 0-0 HT Log Sponsored By Dulex Paint

P.Walnuts

Right bit of a knee jerk log but noticed over the last few weeks the 0-0 at HT bet is a decent runner for the right games, usually priced between 2.5 -> 2.9

I'll try do at least once a week even when the Prem stops, LOI mostly I imagine. If i decide to trade out at any stage quote the original bet and trade details in a reply.

Start of with a bank of €44.41 euro since thats whats in my Betfair account. I'll use Betfair if at all possible unless the market isn;t available and then i'll use my main B365 account.

All bets will be 10% of bank

Starting off with a match just about to get underway

Corintians v Boca Juniors @ 2.9

Stake €4.41

Bank €39.71

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Corintians v Boca Juniors @ 2.9

Stake €4.41

Bank €39.71

Loser : HT 0-1


First bet goes down on 25 mins die to a fluke cross/shot, they all count I suppose!

Bank €39.71

P.Walnuts

Right onto the next one

Bank €39.71

Zimbru v Sheriff @ 2.75 (Used B365 for this one as Betfair do not have the Moldovan League)

Stake €3.97

Bank € 36.74

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Right onto the next one

Bank €39.71

Zimbru v Sheriff @ 2.75 (Used B365 for this one as Betfair do not have the Moldovan League)

Stake €3.97

Bank € 36.74

Loser HT 0-2

Well that didn't last long at all, 6 mins in!

Bank €36.74

P.Walnuts

Ok bit of a loose one here, but what the hell its only tiny stakes ( until we get going!)

Sante Fe v Gremio @ 2.66

This is really resting on Gremio not needing to score, Sante fe score about 70% of the goals in the second half and they should be the ones pressing here.

Price has dropped from 2.9 -> 2.66 so hopefully a good sign.

Bank €36.74

Stake €3.67

Bank €33.07

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok bit of a loose one here, but what the hell its only tiny stakes ( until we get going!)

Sante Fe v Gremio @ 2.66

This is really resting on Gremio not needing to score, Sante fe score about 70% of the goals in the second half and they should be the ones pressing here.

Price has dropped from 2.9 -> 2.66 so hopefully a good sign.

Bank €36.74

Stake €3.67

Bank €33.07

Winner -Traded out at 40 mins

Profit : €4.62

Bank : €36.74 + €4.62 = €41.36

Edit : It finished 0-0 at HT. Didn't want to lose first 3 on the bounce so a bit quick with the cashout, only lost €1.50 profit though. In future will only cashout if a goal is looking very likely.

P.Walnuts

Ok one from the LOI tonight Shamrock Rovers v Bohs. Its based on feeling more, just as much as stats. Dublin derby should be a tight enough fair, especially in the first half. 5 of he last 6 meetings have resulted in 2 or less goals. Rovers score 67% of their goals in the second half and should be the ones pushing here. Bohs score more evenly but the hope being that they won't be seeing much of the ball early on.

Bank : €41.36

Shamrock Rovers v Bohs @ 3.00 (B365)

Stake : €4.13

Bank : €37.23

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Shamrock Rovers v Bohs @ 3.00 (B365)

Stake : €4.13

Bank : €37.23

Winner - HT 0-0

Profit : €8.16

Bank : €41.36 + €8.16 = €49.52

P.Walnuts

Ok, going to make each post a bit more structured, outlinging the reasons behind each selection. Also going to make a Profit/Loss/ROI calculation at the end of everyweek (sunday night) just to keep things in order.

Right selection for tomorrow now

Tottenham v Sunderland @ 4.00

Reason : Right this might seem a strange selection, but I think there could be a profit here. I've gotten matched @ 4.00 on Betfair, which is far higher than usual, the perception that Tottenham have to win and S'land are rubbish/have nothing to play likely effecting the price. However Tottenham are not prolific scorers are home (1.56 p/g) and score 68% of their goals in the second half, averag time of first goal is 49m. The intention here is to cashout at around the 30m mark as despite the stats, I do not want to get greedy. I feel Spurs will certainly win but it will take a while for them to score so hopefully can turn a decent profit.

Bank : 49.52

Stake : 4.95

Bank : 44.57

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok, going to make each post a bit more structured, outlinging the reasons behind each selection. Also going to make a Profit/Loss/ROI calculation at the end of everyweek (sunday night) just to keep things in order.

Right selection for tomorrow now

Tottenham v Sunderland @ 4.00



Reason : Right this might seem a strange selection, but I think there could be a profit here. I've gotten matched @ 4.00 on Betfair, which is far higher than usual, the perception that Tottenham have to win and S'land are rubbish/have nothing to play likely effecting the price. However Tottenham are not prolific scorers are home (1.56 p/g) and score 68% of their goals in the second half, averag time of first goal is 49m. The intention here is to cashout at around the 30m mark as despite the stats, I do not want to get greedy. I feel Spurs will certainly win but it will take a while for them to score so hopefully can turn a decent profit.

Bank : 49.52

Stake : 4.95

Bank : 44.57

Winner cashout 27 mins

Profit €5.02

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok, going to make each post a bit more structured, outlinging the reasons behind each selection. Also going to make a Profit/Loss/ROI calculation at the end of everyweek (sunday night) just to keep things in order.

Right selection for tomorrow now

Tottenham v Sunderland @ 4.00

Reason : Right this might seem a strange selection, but I think there could be a profit here. I've gotten matched @ 4.00 on Betfair, which is far higher than usual, the perception that Tottenham have to win and S'land are rubbish/have nothing to play likely effecting the price. However Tottenham are not prolific scorers are home (1.56 p/g) and score 68% of their goals in the second half, averag time of first goal is 49m. The intention here is to cashout at around the 30m mark as despite the stats, I do not want to get greedy. I feel Spurs will certainly win but it will take a while for them to score so hopefully can turn a decent profit.

Bank : 49.52

Stake : 4.95

Bank : 44.57

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Winner : cashout 27 mins

Profit €5.02

Right home now, posted the cashout from phone so that's why so brief.

The half finished 0-0 but I stuck to my guns and cashed out, was aiming for 30 mins but Spurs got a pretty dangerous free so I just took the safe road and took the profit!

So

Profit : €5.02

Bank : €49.52 + €5.02 = €54.54

P.Walnuts

End of Week Report

Right just gonna wrap up the stats so far (Robbed from 8-10's Baseball log)

Total Staked : €21.13
Total Returned : €31.26
ROI : + 47%
Profit/Loss : + €10.13

Bank : €54.54

Also I jut noticed in the charter that in play bets must be accompanied by a screenshot, not sure if my cashouts qualify (even though both turned out to be winners ) but if anybody wants me to post screenshots of cashouts please just shout!

Anyway decent first week, lets hope it continues

P.Walnuts

Alright I was going to stay away from tonight, but the stats are just too good to turn down.

Shamrock Rover v Dundalk @ 2.93

Reason : Rovers score 75% of their goals in the second half (average time of first goal 50m), Dundalk score 85% of their goals in the second half (average time 65m). Dundalk have kept 4 cleansheets in last 5 games, other game was a 1-0 loss to Rovers.

The threat here is that those stats are from the league and this a cup game. Dundalk will rotate squad but I'm hoping keep the back 4 intact. Hopefully my last minute impulse to ingnore he possible line up changes will pay off

Bank : €54.45

Stake : €5.45

Bank : €49.00

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Alright I was going to stay away from tonight, but the stats are just too good to turn down.

Shamrock Rover v Dundalk @ 2.93

Reason : Rovers score 75% of their goals in the second half (average time of first goal 50m), Dundalk score 85% of their goals in the second half (average time 65m). Dundalk have kept 4 cleansheets in last 5 games, other game was a 1-0 loss to Rovers.

The threat here is that those stats are from the league and this a cup game. Dundalk will rotate squad but I'm hoping keep the back 4 intact. Hopefully my last minute impulse to ingnore he possible line up changes will pay off

Bank : €54.45

Stake : €5.45

Bank : €49.00

Winner : HT 0-0

Profit : €10.19

Bank : €54.55 + €10.19 = €64.74

Delighted with that one, stats held up despite some changes to each team

P.Walnuts

Ok, things going nicely so far. Tonight is another pick that is relying equally on gut feeling and the occasion itself than statistics

Tijuana v Athletico Mineiro @2.74

Reason : Ok there is one good side to this bet and one bad. Firstly the good, Tijuana have played 4 Copa games at home and have yet to concede, they score 80% of their goals in the second half (Avr time 50m). The bad is that Mineiro are a quality side, and only score 57% of their goals in the second half (avr time 22m ). Now the hope here is that its the first leg of a two leg affair, by nature these tend to be tight games, added to that is Tijuana's defensive home record. I feel there is enough here to warrant a punt. I will be watching a live stream through B365 and if Mineiro look well on top I will be looking to cashout at around even money.

Edit : Odds not as high as I would of liked

Bank : €64.74

Stake : €6.47

Bank : €58.27

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok, things going nicely so far. Tonight is another pick that is relying equally on gut feeling and the occasion itself than statistics

Tijuana v Athletico Mineiro @2.74

Reason : Ok there is one good side to this bet and one bad. Firstly the good, Tijuana have played 4 Copa games at home and have yet to concede, they score 80% of their goals in the second half (Avr time 50m). The bad is that Mineiro are a quality side, and only score 57% of their goals in the second half (avr time 22m ). Now the hope here is that its the first leg of a two leg affair, by nature these tend to be tight games, added to that is Tijuana's defensive home record. I feel there is enough here to warrant a punt. I will be watching a live stream through B365 and if Mineiro look well on top I will be looking to cashout at around even money.

Edit : Odds not as high as I would of liked

Bank : €64.74

Stake : €6.47

Bank : €58.27

Loser : HT 1-0

Well that was unexpected. Tijuana were all over MG from the start, could of had about 3 goals earlier than when they scored. Was tempted to cashout as a goal was inevitable but the price I got wasn't great so I just left it with the hope MG could hold out for the last 12 mins.

Bank : €58.27

PunterAssist

Instead of cashing out about evens around minute 27 there is an alternative market you might be interested in... 'Time of first goal'.

It is usually in the region is minute 23-27 and can be had usually at 1.83-1.91.

No need to cash out, no liquidity issues and there can be a late first half goal and you still win.

P.Walnuts

PunterAssist wrote: »

Instead of cashing out about evens around minute 27 there is an alternative market you might be interested in... 'Time of first goal'.

It is usually in the region is minute 23-27 and can be had usually at 1.83-1.91.

No need to cash out, no liquidity issues and there can be a late first half goal and you still win.

So you saying instead of say cashing out at 35 mins, I back first goal between 35-45 mins, or something similar?

That would yield a better guaranteed profit?

(I don't always cashout out at 27 mins, that was just a once off thing with the Spurs game as I got matched nice and high for the 0-0 HT)

PunterAssist

No need to do that. Just back first goal to be scored after minute 23-28 (depending on the match the times will be slightly different).

The catch is that there has to be a goal scored as if the game ends 0-0 the bet loses.

I believe you will have a higher ROI with this bet versus 0-0 @ HT and I would prefer this bet over the second half most goals in the majority of matches as for example the most common scoreline in the premier league for example in the last few seasons has been 1-1.

Its not a market I bet so you may as well paper trade all three bets over your next 100 selections and see how you get on with each.

Have a look at the Crystal Palace v Watford odds on PP:

http://www.paddypower.com/football/football-matches/npower-championship-matches/Crystal-Palace-v-Watford---Wembley-5218403.html#area=quicklinks

0-0@ HT: 15/8
Time of first goal - after minute 28: Evens*
Half with most goals - second: 11/10

*28:15 counts as minute 29

P.Walnuts

PunterAssist wrote: »

No need to do that. Just back first goal to be scored after minute 23-28 (depending on the match the times will be slightly different).

The catch is that there has to be a goal scored as if the game ends 0-0 the bet loses.

I believe you will have a higher ROI with this bet versus 0-0 @ HT and I would prefer this bet over the second half most goals in the majority of matches as for example the most common scoreline in the premier league for example in the last few seasons has been 1-1.

Its not a market I bet so you may as well paper trade all three bets over your next 100 selections and see how you get on with each.

Have a look at the Crystal Palace v Watford odds on PP:

http://www.paddypower.com/football/football-matches/npower-championship-matches/Crystal-Palace-v-Watford---Wembley-5218403.html#area=quicklinks

0-0@ HT: 15/8
Time of first goal - after minute 28: Evens*
Half with most goals - second: 11/10

*28:15 counts as minute 29

Cheers for the advice i'll keep it in mind in future.

P.Walnuts

Bah two missed opportunities with the CL and Play off finals, was considering both due to the occasion, but with both teams in each final so high scoring I left it!

The internationals during the week hopefully will throw up some opportunities

P.Walnuts

Right selection for tomorrow

England v Ireland @ 3.2*

Reason : To follow

*Annoyingly enough the market was at 2.9 earlier today, I got matched at 3.2 after a few hours but now i'm home from work and the market is at 3.25

Bank €58.27

Stake €5.82

Bank €52.45

P.Walnuts

Ok bit of a loose one now

Sante Fe v Real Garcilaso @ 3.05

Reason : The stat site I usually use is down, so this boils down to Sante Fe being 3-1 up on Agg. They don't need to score and should keep it tight. From the stats I can see RG don;t seem prolific away from home. Odds are ok and will be watching live so as ever in case the cashout button may be used

Bank €52.45

Stake €5.24

Bank €47.21

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok bit of a loose one now

Sante Fe v Real Garcilaso @ 3.05

Reason : The stat site I usually use is down, so this boils down to Sante Fe being 3-1 up on Agg. They don't need to score and should keep it tight. From the stats I can see RG don;t seem prolific away from home. Odds are ok and will be watching live so as ever in case the cashout button may be used

Bank €52.45

Stake €5.24

Bank €47.21

Loser HT 1-0

I really should be less impulsive

Bank : €47.21

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Right selection for tomorrow

England v Ireland @ 3.2*

Reason : To follow

*Annoyingly enough the market was at 2.9 earlier today, I got matched at 3.2 after a few hours but now i'm home from work and the market is at 3.25

Bank €58.27

Stake €5.82

Bank €52.45

Loser HT 1-1

Bank : €47.51

P.Walnuts

Ok another South Amercian one even though they have not been good to me

Olimpia v Fluminense @ 2.84

Reason : First leg was 0-0, Olmypia score 60% of their goals in second half and Fluminense are not big scorers away from home.

Bank : €47.21

Stake : €4.72

Bank : €42.49

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Ok another South Amercian one even though they have not been good to me

Olimpia v Fluminense @ 2.84

Reason : First leg was 0-0, Olmypia score 60% of their goals in second half and Fluminense are not big scorers away from home.

Bank : €47.21

Stake : €4.72

Bank : €42.49

Loser

Bloody short backpass from the centre half!

Re-think needed.

P.Walnuts

Ok so the past few weeks I've made some really bad picks. Think I got a little over-confident after the initial good start.

First of all late night South American picks when I get home from work are out.

Secondly my initial inspiration for this log was susccess in the last two months of the Premiership eg a league I know alot about. Transferring that onto leagues i'm not so confident on and just going on stats isn't the same....

So from now on the picks are going to be less frequent, and mostly LOI since thats the next best thing to the PL....if things start going badly I think i'll cut my losses and wait for the new season!

Here's hoping things will pick up!

P.Walnuts

OK after a very poor week of picks hopefully a better one tonight in the FAI cup

Finn Harps v Wexford Youths @ 2.82

Reason: Couple of good indicators that tonights game will be tight. The LOI game between the two sides at Ballyboffey finished 0-0 about a month ago, both sit joint 2nd in the league and seem evenly matched. Neither are very big scorers (1.17 and 1.33 gpg respectively - Wexford away is 0.67). Finn Harps score 56% of their goals in secondhalf Wexford 64%. This will be the second time they play each other in a week, another indication of a tight game. A couple of suspensions to offensive players each Howe for Wexford and McHigh (6 goals this season ) for Harps.

The only obvious weakness I see here is Harps were poor last week and will be looking for revenge and a fast start.

Bank €42.49

Stake : €4.24

Bank : € 38.25

P.Walnuts

P.Walnuts wrote: »

OK after a very poor week of picks hopefully a better one tonight in the FAI cup

Finn Harps v Wexford Youths @ 2.82

Reason: Couple of good indicators that tonights game will be tight. The LOI game between the two sides at Ballyboffey finished 0-0 about a month ago, both sit joint 2nd in the league and seem evenly matched. Neither are very big scorers (1.17 and 1.33 gpg respectively - Wexford away is 0.67). Finn Harps score 56% of their goals in secondhalf Wexford 64%. This will be the second time they play each other in a week, another indication of a tight game. A couple of suspensions to offensive players each Howe for Wexford and McHigh (6 goals this season ) for Harps.

The only obvious weakness I see here is Harps were poor last week and will be looking for revenge and a fast start.

Bank €42.49

Stake : €4.24

Bank : € 38.25

Winner : HT 0-0

Profit : €7.71

Bank : €42.49 + €7.71 = €50.20

Nice to get back to winning ways

P.Walnuts

Ok, i know I said no more South American games, and i've been decideing all day whether to go for this one, but it seems too good an opportunity to turn down.

Tigre v San Martin @ 2.8

Reason : Both teams are in very average form and sit together in mid table. Tigre have only scored 3 times in their last 6 games and average 0.88 gpg at home this season. San Martin average 0.81 gpg away this season. So this all leads me to beleive it will be alow scoring, tight and probably terrible game...here's hoping anyway!

Bank : €50.20

Stake : € 5.02

Bank : € 45.18