Dublin Airport New Runway/Infrastructure.

18MonthsaSlave

Increased activity is in part due to people like me returning and spending hundreds of euro in Ireland on every trip but some people here would like to dismiss that as not being statistically significant.

18MonthsaSlave

You aren't just a troll, you are a lazy troll.
I've brought more statistics to the thread than you.

My observations of flying in to Ireland are that on the Dublin flights I'm hearing Irish accents, on the Kerry flights I'm hearing foreign accents and seeing people carrying tourism guides.

L1011

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

You aren't just a troll, you are a lazy troll.
I've brought more statistics to the thread than you.

Statistics with no relevance to the debate. You might as well have given us the price of chips in Moscow to be honest. We're aware of there being net emigration but that does not, in any way shape or form, connect with your realistically ludicrous claim that it is the cause of increased traffic - particularly as there was far higher emigration while traffic was plummeting precipitously. Indeed, you've actually provided a link showing that net emigration is dropping.

You didn't, however, provide a link for the contextless quote you gave.

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

My observations of flying in to Ireland are that on the Dublin flights I'm hearing Irish accents, on the Kerry flights I'm hearing foreign accents and seeing people carrying tourism guides.

You are aware that outbound tourism (Irish residents) and business travel (Irish residents) exist, right? And that both are closely linked to economic performance?

LXFlyer

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Increased activity is in part due to people like me returning and spending hundreds of euro in Ireland on every trip but some people here would like to dismiss that as not being statistically significant.

Increased activity is visible to me every single day on public transport in this country. The numbers are most definitely up and that has nothing to do with emigration. It shows that the economy is beginning to pick up as more people are travelling to/from work and these figures are indicative of that.

A natural result of increased economic activity is increased numbers of people flying in and out of the country.

There is no other way that an increase over 2013 of that magnitude (7%) in passenger numbers could be generated.

I'm not saying that there aren't emigrants travelling too, but there's no way that could account for this level of growth.

18MonthsaSlave

MYOB wrote: »

Statistics with no relevance to the debate.

Topic for discussion is emigration's effect on passenger volume at Dublin Airport. I provide links to statistics concerning emigration and you say they are not relevant. I can't please you but I see you don't like loosing an argument.
I provide first hand experience of how emigrants like myself travel home regularly but that isn't what you want to hear.
I point out that statistics collected with regard to passenger type at Dublin airport classify me as a tourist and not an emigrant who returns to see friends and family and that's not what you want to hear either.

18MonthsaSlave

Do you not agree that still many years after the crash tens of thousands of people are leaving Ireland. The statistics show this.
The statistics show negative migration. Will I coin the phrase "emigration denier" for people like you.

LXFlyer

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Planning a major infrastructure project like a new runway in the knowledge that the Government is unsustainably stimulating the local economy by running a deficit year on year is a dangerous activity to engage in.

Hang on a minute. I made no comment on government policy.

The point I made was in response to another poster stating that this entire growth was down to emigrants travelling.

That simply is not true. A growth of 7% is far too big to align to that element.

The fact is that there are clear signs of increased economic activity in this country - it's apparent every single day as you go around the country from the numbers of cars commuting and the numbers using public transport. You don't need statistics to tell you that. You seem to want to happily ignore this fact.

An inevitable consequence of that is inevitably increased passenger numbers through Dublin Airport.

That's borne out by the numbers - 7% year to date.

L1011

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Do you not agree that still many years after the crash tens of thousands of people are leaving Ireland. The statistics show this.
The statistics show negative migration. Will I coin the phrase "emigration denier" for people like you.

What on earth are you talking about?

Please stop trying to argue against things nobody else is arguing about! Nobody has any interest in dealing with your strawmen.

18MonthsaSlave

MYOB wrote: »

What on earth are you talking about?

Please stop trying to argue against things nobody else is arguing about! Nobody has any interest in dealing with your strawmen.

You are a troll. I show sustained net negative migration and urge others to think about the implications of that w.r.t. building a new runway and you label it a strawman argument.
The view that passenger numbers are increasing therefore a new runway is required is just too simplistic and one must understand why the numbers are increasing in the short term.

18MonthsaSlave

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

7% growth(don't know where you got the stat but lets run with it)

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-10-08/Passenger_Numbers_Up_8_In_September.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-09-04/Almost_2_3_Million_Passengers_In_August_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-08-07/Over_2_3_Million_Passengers_In_July_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-07-04/Over_2_1_Million_Passengers_At_Dublin_Airport_In_June.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-06-09/Dublin_Airport_Welcomed_Almost_2M_Passengers_In_May.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-05-09/1_8_Million_Passengers_In_April_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-03-18/Passenger_Numbers_Up_8_In_February.aspx

and here

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-02-11/Almost_1_3_Million_Passengers_Used_Dublin_Airport_In_January.aspx

18MonthsaSlave

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

I don't follow this but you seem very much in favour of getting the runway built.

YES I AM.

18MonthsaSlave

Deleted User wrote: »

YES I AM.

OK. so I'm on an impartial board then it appears. I remember working with a guy who was in favour of the Bertie Bowl because he'd be able to get to see more international matches in the locality and trying to discuss with him the cost implications of committing to such a major project was a pointless activity. He wasn't going to be bearing the cost so he didn't care.

L1011

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

OK. so I'm on an impartial board then it appears. I remember working with a guy who was in favour of the Bertie Bowl because he'd be able to get to see more international matches in the locality and trying to discuss with him the cost implications of committing to such a major project was a pointless activity. He wasn't going to be bearing the cost so he didn't care.

Yet another strawman there - where have you got any indication that GVHOT hasn't carefully worked out the financial pros and cons?

You haven't, that's where.

Argue the facts, not the points you think you can argue against that nobody has actually made.

18MonthsaSlave

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

@GVHOT, why are you including statistics over and above the "7%" which I as an aid to discussion was willing to accept.

You don't get to define what's arguable and what's not.

I was showing you the growth figures for each month for this year, if you want I can get you the growth figures for the last 18-24 months. Growth each and every month bar the month of the Aer Lingus strike.

We aren't arguing about JUST 7% growth.

MJohnston

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Excuse me but I do get to clarify what point or topic is being referred to when it has raised by others in the topic and they expect me or others to comment on it.
When another poster introduces a point "7%" and I say I don't know what you are specifically referring to but lets go with it I'm engaging in human conversation.
If you want to dictate what gets discussed then that close off meaningful conversation.

With all respect, the 7% passenger growth figure has been discussed on pretty much every page of this thread, with sources linked to each time.

As well as the relative percent figures, absolute numbers have been provided additionally. When you look at the growth in those absolute numbers and compare it to the figures that you yourself linked about net-migration (which themselves show that the net is actually returning towards growth), there is absolutely no argument that can be made that the responsibility of passenger growth figures could result from increased emigration.

Now, you made the potentially arguable statement that a lot of those emigrants could be boosting the passenger figures by returning frequently to Ireland. Well, if we're going anecdotal, then I was one of those emigrants (and am no longer thankfully), and I was one of the lucky ones who left because of a better opportunity rather than because of unemployment. I was also in a very well-paid job in America, somewhere very easy to reach Ireland from. Yet, I could only afford a single return trip to Ireland in the 18 months I was absent from the country. Therefore I find it extremely difficult to accept that the emigrants forced out due to unemployment could afford 4 return trips each in the last 9 months. [1]

([1] If you're wondering where I'm getting that math from: 1.1million additional passengers through Dublin Airport alone (I have no figures for other Irish airports which presumably also accommodate emigrants) in 2014 through September. 142k net people have emigrated from Ireland since 2009. That's approximately 8 times through DUB per net-emigrant, or 4 return trips.)

I think those figures provide very little evidence that an increase in emigration is the driving cause of rising DUB passenger figures. It is undoubtedly a fraction of that rise, but there are dozens of other larger contributors to that rise.

18MonthsaSlave

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

7% growth(don't know where you got the stat but lets run with it)

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

@GVHOT, why are you including statistics over and above the "7%" which I as an aid to discussion was willing to accept.

You asked a question I got you the answer, you then decided that you didn't like me including a stat above 7%.

What is your point ? You don't want a runway built because it "might" be built on figures of emigration, even though that would mean 738,500 people emigrated last year through Dublin Airport. That by the way is half the growth figure at Dublin Airport for 2013, why half? as people come and go, half would be your go figure (emigration).

Did 738,500 people emigrate from Ireland last year ?

L1011

Nobody was getting bullied. More imaginations.

18MonthsaSlave

It's a tagteam take-down for anybody not in agreement with the groupthink on this sub-forum.

Cookiemunster

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

It's a tagteam take-down for anybody not in agreement with the groupthink on this sub-forum.

Or maybe you're just wrong? Maybe?

18MonthsaSlave

Cookiemunster wrote: »

So not on the other side of the planet where most recent emigrants are where it costs nearly €1k every time you come home.

Are most recent emigrants on the other side of the planet? I'd ask for statistics but Mother Ireland doesn't appear to care to count where they f*ck off to as long as the f*ck off out of the country and don't inflate unemployment statistics.

MJohnston

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

You are asking me about 738,500 people. I'm one person but I've got 6 Ryanair itinerary mails in my inbox for 2014 alone and the year isn't ended yet. That's 12 passenger movements for this one immigrant in and out of Ireland not counting the ferry trips either.
@Mjohnston; take note. emigrants have reason to travel home often.

Where is this 738,500 figure coming from?

Cumulative emigration is (according to your link) 479,800 since 2009. Which means that there were 337,600 immigrants in the same period.

Why would those *immigrants* not want to return home out of Ireland in the same scale as Irish people wanting to return home?

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

Where is this 738,500 figure coming from?

Cumulative emigration is (according to your link) 479,800 since 2009. Which means that there were 337,600 immigrants in the same period.

Why would those *immigrants* not want to return home out of Ireland in the same scale as Irish people wanting to return home?

It's from me, I posted it as its half of the passenger growth for Dublin airport in 2013. I asked did 738,500 people emigrate in 2013. The answer is no and your stat shows how many have.

MJohnston

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

Are most recent emigrants on the other side of the planet? I'd ask for statistics but Mother Ireland doesn't appear to care to count where they f*ck off to as long as the f*ck off out of the country and don't inflate unemployment statistics.

That's completely incorrect:

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.VDfx3BaMyI9

Table 3 - Estimated Migration classified by Sex and Country of Destination/Origin, 2008 - 2013

That table shows you exactly what you're after. Over 50% of emigrants have gone to countries which are not within affordable reach of Ireland.

Now bear in mind that only around 62% of people who emigrated were actually Irish (you can see that in table 2).

18MonthsaSlave

Cookiemunster wrote: »

They majority of people in this country can speak only one language. Therefore when they emigrate they go to an English speaking country. Over that last 6 years the 2 recession proof English speaking countries (Australia & Canada) have been the destination of choice to most emigrants.

That is becoming an outmoded notion. A huge number of european employers are hiring english speakers(not necessarily native language) and don't care if they don't speak the local language as they speak english in the workplace.

L1011

Pretty simply, here we have an angry emigrant who refuses to accept things have turned a corner. It's like the late 1990s in Kilburn all over.

MJohnston

MYOB I'm not trying to backseat moderate, but you're just fueling the flames here

18MonthsaSlave

MJohnston wrote: »

That's completely incorrect:

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2013/#.VDfx3BaMyI9

Table 3 - Estimated Migration classified by Sex and Country of Destination/Origin, 2008 - 2013

That table shows you exactly what you're after. Over 50% of emigrants have gone to countries which are not within affordable reach of Ireland.

Now bear in mind that only around 62% of people who emigrated were actually Irish (you can see that in table 2).

Nope, background notes showing how they calculate figures wouldn't have caught my destination. Nobody asked me where I'm going. No Irish official form I'm aware of identifies my place of residence.

18MonthsaSlave

18MonthsaSlave wrote: »

When MYOB shows me positive net migration and the country actually running without a deficit or stealing private pensions or the national pension fund and introducing more taxes euphemistically called charges without reducing existing taxes in equal measure then I'll believe that the country has turned a corner.
Don't like turned a corner as a phrase; Brian Lenihan abused it.

Just a helpful hint, probably get more attention over here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=99

man98

Emgirants returning, without factoring in anything else should explain why DUB numbers are still below 2007 figures, before this widespread exodus began. Yeah, it makes sense that when emigrant numbers exploded, figures for passengers would also explode by your logic. But no, there was almost a 25% drop. Game, set and match to the non-trolls

lord lucan

Can I remind people that backseat modding and calling other people trolls are worthy of warnings and infractions. I appreciate people get passionate about the points they want to make but ask that you remember that there are rules.