Irish property market

monkey8

How do you see the Irish property market panning out over the next ten years?

I personally think a Japan style crawling along the bottom for 10 years happening here too.

My wife brought a one bed apt in Dublin city centre, paid 300,000 worth about 90000 now and I'm thinking will only be worth the same + inflation I'm 10 years but would love to hear other people's opinions.

PhilMcGee

No idea.
And neither has anyone else to be fair.
Its pure speculation unless someone is clairvoyant.
Some people look back after their guess turns out to be right and like to think that they are a genius.
Like the odd person wins money in the lottery.

Cork selfbuild

Given the Irish purchasing records, I believe in 10 years thats the current state of play will be forgotten about and will eventually begin creaping upwards in the next 5 years or so... that's just my 2 cents!

NIMAN

Just a guess, think it will hover around the values now for maybe 5yrs, with small increases in bigger centres like Dublin, Galway etc.

Then all will start increasing, but VERY slowly.

Sorry to hear about your wife's predicament - can't see that apt ever being worth 300k again.

latenia

We haven't even reverted to fair value yet, let alone reach the overshoot/desperation stage. We are in the middle of the most severe property crash in history yet I can only think of a single instance from the last 5 years of a property selling for a genuine bargain price. The current dead cat bounce already looks to be losing its legs-there'll be a mountain of unsold stock at the end of the summer, mark my words. From there it'll be drops of a few percent annually for the next decade.

Trhiggy83

As long as over 400,000 people are unemployed i reckon house prices will be very slow to rise. People wont have the money to buy 300k homes and its that simple in my mind.

Some good deals to be had though if you have money in your pocket

Richard Dower

Ib 10 years we'll all forget about the bubble bursting and repeat the same madness....but this time we'll see total and global financial collapse.....

NIMAN

Don't forget that NAMA has a mountain of properties to be released on to the market.

Will only depress prices further.

vinylbomb

And if/when the regulator starts to get tough with the banks you'll see foreclosures coming into the market at rock bottom prices.
The banks will be desperate to shift them off their balance sheets.

Photoshop

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't forget that NAMA has a mountain of properties to be released on to the market.

Will only depress prices further.

I would say roles reversed there.

Nama will only release them properties when the market picks up.

I agree with you that it will pick up in Dublin, Cork, Galway etc soon enough.

Rest of the country will be in big trouble.

ted1

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't forget that NAMA has a mountain of properties to be released on to the market.

Will only depress prices further.

The properties NAMA have are the runts if the litter. Poorly built, poorly insulated, poor efficiency. They will never sell, and they have very few houses with the dublin area.

In envisage high demand for houses on the dublin area, ones with gardens as oppose to town houses which are glorified apartments.

I've been tracking some houses in dublin and dome have increased the asking price over the past few weeks.

Apartments will never increase the value may raise on line with inflation but the NPV will remain the same.

The_Conductor

NAMA has over 10 times more commercial than residential property on its books- there is some strange misconception out there about the amount of residential property NAMA has. Of the residential property that NAMA has- most of it is in the greater Dublin area- and indeed a lot of the ghost estates countrywide, may not be NAMA properties at all (and of those that are, a promise has been made to demolish quite a number- I'd love to see a list).

Gazing through a crystal ball at what will happen over the next 10 years?
Increase in emigration as economic conditions improve elsewhere- notably to the US, and possibly a tapering off of other destinations- esp. Australia, which seems to be catching the global economic flu at long last.

With an increase in emigration- mostly of the 20-40 age group- those who might presumably be purchasing property- will dwindle in number.

The number of people availing of the personal insolvency legislation- will probably be a fraction of those currently in arrears- however the mess that we keep conveniently keep sweeping under the carpet are those in unsuitable accommodation trying to bring up kids in unsuitable residences, alongside a lack of amenities and facilities.

Our current population boom is already tapering off- we're still at marginally above the rate of replacement (about 2.05) which is a reduction of about .2 on where we were 4 years ago. We will have a population bulge in the years ahead- demanding services at particular stages in their lives- we'll probably need 12,000 more teachers- however what will we do with them once the population bulge moves through the system?

Our finances are still in choppy waters- and will be for some time. We will have to revisit many aspects of our taxation code- not least of which would be transfer pricing, where multinationals are abusing our low corporation rate- to sandwich it with the rates of The Netherlands and elsewhere, so as to minimise their tax bills. Its all legal of course- but as Google is finding in the UK- eventually the public will twig and demand examples be made. Personal taxation in Ireland is past the point of any increase generating an effective rate of return with further increases- if we tax people more, it just won't be worth a lot of people's while working.

To be honest- we need a root and branch rebuilding of the country- and politics needs to be redefined, so pump parish patronage, is a thing of the past. As it stands- we don't have a political cadre in the minds of voters, who can stand up and represent Ireland- rather than stand up and represent Castlebar or some similar place. Even if/when politicians try to stand above the maddening hordes, to borrow a phrase, they are roundly punished for doing so. We need to redesign politics- so the parochial element is taken out of the equation, it has contributed immeasurably to the ruination of this country.

The only safety valve this country has ever had- has been emigration- and this valve is currently gunged up- as the global economic morass carries on. You can be damn sure that there will be a massive surge in people leaving- just as soon as it becomes clear that people have a viable future elsewhere.

pwurple

smccarrick wrote: »

Gazing through a crystal ball at what will happen over the next 10 years?
Increase in immigration as economic conditions improve elsewhere- notably to the US, and possibly a tapering off of other destinations- esp. Australia, which seems to be catching the global economic flu at long last.

With an increase in immigration- mostly of the 20-40 age group- those who might presumably be purchasing property- will dwindle in number.

? Do you mean emigration here, rather than immigration? Makes no sense otherwise.

Anyway, i see property prices following the classic post bubble curve of every other commodity, like technology shares, oil, etc. The sharp drops have leveled it seems, so it may be flat for a short time and then starrt to increase at a lower rate, probably matching inflation. That is, unless another bubble appears.

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

I've been tracking some houses in dublin and dome have increased the asking price over the past few weeks.

Care to share with us how many, which ones and where?

gaius c

Trhiggy83 wrote: »

As long as over 400,000 people are unemployed i reckon house prices will be very slow to rise. People wont have the money to buy 300k homes and its that simple in my mind.

Some good deals to be had though if you have money in your pocket

IF

Also the banks are FUBAR'd and that's before they have even started dealing with residential arrears.

gurramok wrote: »

Care to share with us how many, which ones and where?

It's true. The Pin has been tracking quite a few of them. Asking prices mean nothing other than demonstrating vendors unrealistic expectations.

The big question for me is what happens to the rental market. The 20-30 age bracket have been locked out of the buying market so they've no option but to rent and when supply is being tightly controlled...

riclad

Nama owns lots of apartments in dublin.
IN some areas there,s a shortage of houses for sale,
many people in negative equity cannot afford to sell their house.
With ongoing emigration ,i don,t expect house prices to increase outside
citys ,in small towns and villages .
SO in certain areas, 3bed houses may increase in value,
where theres a shortage of units for sale,
and a fair amount of prospective buyers.
Some apartment blocks have been taken over by nama and are still being finished.
if A couple is buying a house now ,they,ll look at a house with a garden ,
close to schools, shops etc

NIMAN

smccarrick wrote: »

NAMA has over 10 times more commercial than residential property on its books- there is some strange misconception out there about the amount of residential property NAMA has. Of the residential property that NAMA has- most of it is in the greater Dublin area- and indeed a lot of the ghost estates countrywide, may not be NAMA properties at all (and of those that are, a promise has been made to demolish quite a number- I'd love to see a list).

Well I recently sold a property in Donegal, in a development of 55 houses. I got €85k for it, and was more than happy to get rid of it and make a profit, mainly because there is a development of 155 houses right beside ours, which is 6yrs younger, better built, better layout etc. Approx half the houses are occupied and half are finished but boarded up as they never sold. NAMA own this estate.

My logic was once these are tossed on to the market, probably at the likes of €40k or €50k, then that automatically made my house worth that, or less. And they will have to dump these types of properties in the medium term future rather than long term.

riclad

Yeah, nama owns lots of commercial property,
in ireland and the uk,
They get rental income from it ,but that does,nt have much effect on the market if you are thinking of buying a house or an apartment.
I think most of the ghost estates are outside dublin,. in villages or towns.

gurramok

gaius c wrote: »

It's true. The Pin has been tracking quite a few of them. Asking prices mean nothing other than demonstrating vendors unrealistic expectations.

The big question for me is what happens to the rental market. The 20-30 age bracket have been locked out of the buying market so they've no option but to rent and when supply is being tightly controlled...

Evidence? All I have to go by is Property Bee, myHome own tracker and off course after sales prices via PPR. Most in Dublin have been asking price reductions hence asking where these properties are that are increasing in prices?

The 20-30 age bracket who have not bought yet maybe locked out due to individual circumstances, thing is there are fewer of them around than before due to emigration(source CSO migration stats).

ted1

gurramok wrote: »

Evidence? All I have to go by is Property Bee, myHome own tracker and off course after sales prices via PPR. Most in Dublin have been asking price reductions hence asking where these properties are that are increasing in prices?

The 20-30 age bracket who have not bought yet maybe locked out due to individual circumstances, thing is there are fewer of them around than before due to emigration(source CSO migration stats).

Link to your stats please, there was a baby boom around 79 so there is a higher number of 30-35 year olds , this could be the cause of less 20-30 year olds . School enrolments back up my claim

StillWaters

gaius c wrote: »

The big question for me is what happens to the rental market. The 20-30 age bracket have been locked out of the buying market so they've no option but to rent and when supply is being tightly controlled...

That's a real time bomb there. We are not building enough replacement stock, we have practically nil social housing being built, and we have limited credit available to those who would traditionally buy at family formation stage.
It all looks very bleak for renters.

gaius c

StillWaters wrote: »

That's a real time bomb there. We are not building enough replacement stock, we have practically nil social housing being built, and we have limited credit available to those who would traditionally buy at family formation stage.
It all looks very bleak for renters.

"Replacement stock"? Is somebody demolishing houses on the sly?

If there's "limited credit available to those who would traditionally buy at family formation stage" then prices will have to drop to what they can afford.
It's not bleak for renters, it's bleak for sellers.

StillWaters

gaius c wrote: »

"Replacement stock"? Is somebody demolishing houses on the sly?

If there's "limited credit available to those who would traditionally buy at family formation stage" then prices will have to drop to what they can afford.
It's not bleak for renters, it's bleak for sellers.

Yes, replacement stock. Our capital has one of the lowest rates in Europe.

And no, prices will not have to fall to what traditional buyers can afford, why would they when rental yields increase?

I suspect the Strategic Investment Fund will have a strand for Social Housing construction which will ease the pressure somewhat.

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

Link to your stats please, there was a baby boom around 79 so there is a higher number of 30-35 year olds , this could be the cause of less 20-30 year olds . School enrolments back up my claim

Emigration amongst 15-30 yr olds, there are alot less of them around now than there were in 2006.(115,000 less)
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2012/popmig_2012.pdf

Yes there was a baby boom around '79, it declined after into the 80's and 90's. You're also depending on alot of those 30+yr olds to have not bought during the bubble, they were in their 20's then and fell for the "property ladder" lark. I'm in my 30's and most people i know have bought already and are in negative equity.

gaius c

StillWaters wrote: »

Yes, replacement stock. Our capital has one of the lowest rates in Europe.

You're forgetting the three certainties of life.

Death, taxes and divorce should (in a functioning market) release plenty of stock to the market and while executors have been putting houses up for rent trying to wait out the market, the house needs to be sold in the other two cases.

300,000 Irish people have emigrated in the last four years, 120,000 of them in the 15-24 age bracket, i.e. current and future FTB's

And no, prices will not have to fall to what traditional buyers can afford, why would they when rental yields increase?

I suspect the Strategic Investment Fund will have a strand for Social Housing construction which will ease the pressure somewhat.

That's a curious belief to have. Do you see the trend of failed sales being converted to rentals carrying on indefinitely?

StillWaters

gaius c wrote: »

You're forgetting the three certainties of life.

Death, taxes and divorce should (in a functioning market) release plenty of stock to the Market

divorce leads to an increase in demand for housing stock, and is one reason why we need a higher replacement rate than we used to.

gaius c

Way to avoid all the rest of my post.
Can you please share with us your definition of "replacement stock" and what's your source for "Our capital has one of the lowest rates in Europe"?

StillWaters

Just found this Economist interactive chart

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices?Fsrc=scn/fb/wl/dc/housingmarkets

Going to have fun playing with this.

gurramok

And marriage\relationships probably increases the housing stock when each partner has a house already and rents out the 2nd house when they live together! Works both ways

mcbert

gurramok wrote: »

Evidence? All I have to go by is Property Bee, myHome own tracker and off course after sales prices via PPR. Most in Dublin have been asking price reductions hence asking where these properties are that are increasing in prices?

The 20-30 age bracket who have not bought yet maybe locked out due to individual circumstances, thing is there are fewer of them around than before due to emigration(source CSO migration stats).

I keep hearing people expecting price drops, or expecting everything to sells for less than asking. Well, I've been looking for a family home in Dublin the last few months. Most family homes on the market - in areas well inside the M50, in my price range at least - need work done. The few I was interested in that didnt need any work done, all went above asking, and some had bidding wars since christmas. I should know - I was involved in that bidding (but didnt take it too far).

There really is a shortage of ready-to-move-into family homes within maybe 4-6km of the city centre. You see loads of couples with young kids, at all the the viewings. Many of them look disgusted at the dumps for sale, or disgusted that there is 20-30 other couples looking at the same house.

gaius c

mcbert wrote: »

I keep hearing people expecting price drops, or expecting everything to sells for less than asking. Well, I've been looking for a family home in Dublin the last few months. Most family homes on the market - in areas well inside the M50, in my price range at least - need work done. The few I was interested in that didnt need any work done, all went above asking, and some had bidding wars since christmas. I should know - I was involved in that bidding (but didnt take it too far).

There really is a shortage of ready-to-move-into family homes within maybe 4-6km of the city centre. You see loads of couples with young kids, at all the the viewings. Many of them look disgusted at the dumps for sale, or disgusted that there is 20-30 other couples looking at the same house.

This isn't new. Dublin has been a low density city for a long time now and unless planning & development changes, old people with no children at home will continue to live in their nice houses with gardens just outside the canals and their children will have to live in Celbridge. Also, families are competing with single people sharing for the limited family house stock.

It's good that peoples' attitudes are changing but it will take decades and another spree of development to turn Dublin into a modern city. Basically, there shouldn't be a building under 4/5 storeys anywhere inside the canals but no, there's two storey buildings a stones throw from O'Connell St and single storey bungalows not much further than that.