Irish property market

ted1

gurramok wrote: »

Evidence? All I have to go by is Property Bee, myHome own tracker and off course after sales prices via PPR. Most in Dublin have been asking price reductions hence asking where these properties are that are increasing in prices?

Plenty here shown increases.

http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1406&LocalityIDs=

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

Plenty here shown increases.

http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1406&LocalityIDs=

You selected Dublin South for your link.

For the month of May so far...

Asking price Increases - 16
Asking price Reductions - 87

Thats asking prices of all ranges from low to high. Seems pretty clear from myhome that the majority of asking prices are still falling in Dublin South.

gurramok

mcbert wrote: »

I keep hearing people expecting price drops, or expecting everything to sells for less than asking. Well, I've been looking for a family home in Dublin the last few months. Most family homes on the market - in areas well inside the M50, in my price range at least - need work done. The few I was interested in that didnt need any work done, all went above asking, and some had bidding wars since christmas. I should know - I was involved in that bidding (but didnt take it too far).

There really is a shortage of ready-to-move-into family homes within maybe 4-6km of the city centre. You see loads of couples with young kids, at all the the viewings. Many of them look disgusted at the dumps for sale, or disgusted that there is 20-30 other couples looking at the same house.

Where? Saying within M50 is so ambiguous, why is there such shyness on this thread to name a suburb\postcode where the spoken of demand is?

And what price range are you looking at?

And yes, there are some dumps out there on the market, no arguments about that.

mcbert

gurramok wrote: »

Where? Saying within M50 is so ambiguous, why is there such shyness on this thread to name a suburb\postcode where the spoken of demand is?

And what price range are you looking at?

And yes, there are some dumps out there on the market, no arguments about that.

I really don't get the impression you believe me. So be it. I'm was being vague because there's no need to tell my life story here, am just giving my experiences. Besides, I've been looking in a few different areas, but far from all of them. We started looking in Kimmage, Terenue, Harolds Cross, parts of Rathfarnham. Couldn't find anything nice we could afford, so switched to looking around Navan Road - Ashtown area. Much more promising there, but still few homes that dont need work.

jmayo

Richard Dower wrote: »

Ib 10 years we'll all forget about the bubble bursting and repeat the same madness....but this time we'll see total and global financial collapse.....

Sorry to rain on your parade there Richard, but this bubble won't be forgotten in 20 or 30 years nevermind 10.
We as a state and society will still be dealing with the fallout.

There are 30 and 40 somethings who will still be paying for the bubble in 20/30 years time.
And they won't have a nest egg to hand on to their kids like was done in the past, so the kids will be hit.
Some of the ones who had hoped to inherit a nest egg from their parents in the next 10/20 years will discover that they parents remortgaging to help them buy during the bubble has crippled the parents.

Also for anything like our previous bubble to occurr the banks need to be pouring in wads of cheap credit.
That aint going to be happening anytime soon.

Cork selfbuild wrote: »

Given the Irish purchasing records, I believe in 10 years thats the current state of play will be forgotten about and will eventually begin creaping upwards in the next 5 years or so... that's just my 2 cents!

Yeah lets ignore huge unemployment, reliance on FDI which could be threatend by tax laws hardening in EU and US, massive emigration due to lack of jobs and stagnant salaries, massvie public and private debt, lack of credit and increased cost of property ownership. :rolleyes:

Of ocurse some properties in some areas (the ubiquitous South County Dublin area) will always be desirable, but don't expect that to lift apartments in Clonee, townhouses in Mullingar or one offs outside Crossmolina.

seamus

Irish people haven't really learned a thing. The only thing at the moment standing is the way is restricted lending. There are a lot of people in their 20s at this stage who are renting and earning a decent wage who would jump at the chance to buy property.

If lending opened up again, our property market around towns and cities would very quickly stabilise and start showing rises again. Definitely not nearly at the same level as it did in the boom times - much of which was driven by small investors.

However as it is, lending policies are closer to the sane ideas which they should always have been. Banks are providing mortgages to people in stable employment with a reasonable deposit. The whole notion of lending massive sums to casual contractors so long as they have a guarantor is gone. This means the number of new people and movers in the market will stay at a steady but small trickle.

Fragmentation is mainly what will happen in the market overall. During the bubble the value of properties didn't vary that much - i.e. a two bed townhouse in Co. Kildare was probably €300k +/- 50k. And the big thing was that prices increased across the country, everywhere. Now and for the forseeable future, a property just off the main road of a nice town will sell at €150k, whereas a similar property in a development 5km away in the middle of nowhere will struggle to even get viewing priced at €50k.

Some areas (and some types of property) will see appreciable growth in demand and the value of properties, whereas others will continue to see decreases until the properties are effectively worthless.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Sorry to rain on your parade there Richard, but this bubble won't be forgotten in 20 or 30 years nevermind 10.
We as a state and society will still be dealing with the fallout.

There are 30 and 40 somethings who will still be paying for the bubble in 20/30 years time.
And they won't have a nest egg to hand on to their kids like was done in the past, so the kids will be hit.
Some of the ones who had hoped to inherit a nest egg from their parents in the next 10/20 years will discover that they parents remortgaging to help them buy during the bubble has crippled the parents.

Ha, you wish, no doubt to punish those who took out a mortgage, the debt is going to be forgiven, one way or the other.

ted1

gurramok wrote: »

You selected Dublin South for your link.

For the month of May so far...

Asking price Increases - 16
Asking price Reductions - 87

Thats asking prices of all ranges from low to high. Seems pretty clear from myhome that the majority of asking prices are still falling in Dublin South.

Yes, as I said some houses on Dublin are increasing, there are also plenty of people here saying the houses they have or are bidding on have exceeded the asking price.

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

Yes, as I said some houses on Dublin are increasing, there are also plenty of people here saying the houses they have or are bidding on have exceeded the asking price.

And you never reported that the majority in that particular region(Dublin South) actually decreased in asking price.

Well only one poster has posted in the thread about bidding wars, not multiple posters.

Mcbert said he\she was looking at Kimmage, Terenue, Harolds Cross, parts of Rathfarnham and Navan Rd. Nothing about price range yet though I suspect its a large budget.

ted1

gurramok wrote: »

And you never reported that the majority in that particular region(Dublin South) actually decreased in asking price.

heres the northside, with prices on a good number of units increasing.

http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1365&LocalityIDs=

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

heres the northside, with prices on a good number of units increasing.

http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1365&LocalityIDs=

Similar to Dublin South, the vast majority are decreasing asking prices for all types of dwellings. That trend has been happening all year, most are decreasing with a small minority increasing, hardly new news.

ted1

the trend on prices increasing, is increasing. this time last year there was little to no increases, it was a race to the bottom, now we are are seen increases.

gurramok

ted1 wrote: »

the trend on prices increasing, is increasing. this time last year there was little to no increases, it was a race to the bottom, now we are are seen increases.

That's a trend of small volume of increasing prices, it happened last year as well. And so have the decreases which still form the vast majority of adjustments in asking prices.

The myhome link goes back to Feb 2011 for browsing, I see no difference yet.

What are you trying to say? That asking prices in Dublin are rising?!

ted1

Yes, exactly that

Galego

pwurple wrote: »

? Do you mean emigration here, rather than immigration? Makes no sense otherwise.

Anyway, i see property prices following the classic post bubble curve of every other commodity, like technology shares, oil, etc. The sharp drops have leveled it seems, so it may be flat for a short time and then starrt to increase at a lower rate, probably matching inflation. That is, unless another bubble appears.

Best post so far. IMO, you got it spot on.

gaius c

Lads
No point in arguing about asking prices. Selling prices are all that matter.

lima

The Spider wrote: »

Ha, you wish, no doubt to punish those who took out a mortgage, the debt is going to be forgiven, one way or the other.

Ha, this guy again.. Wishful thinking mate.

mcbert

I just want to point out that these sites ye are using might be more useful in showing price falls than price rises:

Published asking prices drop when there have been no acceptable offers. The sellers adjust their prices and has another go. I'd say most properties are in that position.

But under what circumstances would a published asking price rise? Only when 1) the seller is in no rush to sell, sees strong interest, decides to push for as high a price as possible, or 2) the seller sees little interest, but tries to play games pretending they are in situation 1, trying to fool buyers.

But what about houses that are put up on the market for a month, with one or two viewings, people bid, highest bid wins. It goes sale agreed within the month. The sellers cant wait around for months for higher bids, or doesnt want to scare off the bidders they have got. The published asking price never changes - why bother updating the website - so that demand will be invisible to the property websites.

The property price register would be more useful, although I think it is 3-4 months delayed.

So average prices may not be rising much at all, and few asking prices may be seen rising, but that does not mean a certain category** of house are not in demand. I think this is exactly what is happening in many cases.

** as I've said here before, I can only speak for what I've been looking at - good condition family homes in some settled areas of dublin that are literally ready to move in to. And for whoever asked what price range Im looking at - 350k - 380k FWIW.

And no, I dont work in the property industry, so I'm not making up stories of 'demand'.

The Spider

lima wrote: »

Ha, this guy again.. Wishful thinking mate.

Going to happen, I'm afraid, no recovery without it, for 30 odd years, either that or inflation swallows it, can't see that happening somehow.

Anyway I digress, link below, I know it's Carol Hunt but there's more and more of this type of thing.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/carol-hunt-homeowners-are-stuck-in-a-medieval-morality-play-29278161.html

gurramok

The Spider - if debt forgiveness happened as you think it will, it will be chaos. Everyone with a mortgage will strategically default as why bother paying it when others don't? I wouldn't blame them. It's a can of worms which the Personal Insolvency legislation and eventually the banks(mortgage arrears crisis) is dealing with.

Mcbert, I agree with most of what you say. Your target is houses in the 350-380k range in particular areas that are moderatively expensive and suit quite the professional classes, thats quite a large budget which many do not have. Its one of many micro markets within Dublin i'd say hence I picked up up on that misleading "inside the M50" comment earlier. If there is huge demand in this micro market, we just don't know other than anecdotals or the usual Daft lumping SCD as the poster boy of recovering Dublin prices.

Blanket statements from ted1 saying "Dublin prices are rising" is quite wrong for now, there is no statistical evidence of that either from the CSO or the PPR analysis by Daft. The trend of asking prices overall is down when one consults the Property Bee and myhome tracker.

They might rise in a micro market of those "family houses in demand" at a particular price in a particular area(if such a stat exists) but as we know Dublin is a low density sprawl consisting of many different areas with different price ranges. The delayed PPR is really our only guide of house prices at a local level when comparing asking to achieved price and comparing achieved prices on certain streets over a period of time.

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

Going to happen, I'm afraid, no recovery without it, for 30 odd years, either that or inflation swallows it, can't see that happening somehow.

Anyway I digress, link below, I know it's Carol Hunt but there's more and more of this type of thing.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/carol-hunt-homeowners-are-stuck-in-a-medieval-morality-play-29278161.html

Perhaps there will be no recovery then- because quite simply there is no money to allow for widespread forgiveness of personal debt. The money simply isn't there. I'm not sure if you realise just how high the level of personal debt in Ireland is- between us its a tad shy of 700 billion. Yes, billion, not million. With the best of will in the world- we do not have the money to support widespread debt forgiveness.

We are most probably going to stabilise our national debt at around 120% of GDP by 2015. This is acknowledged by the OECD, the EU Commission and other bodies- as the maximum sustainable debt for a small open economy such as ours. This is without any further state contributions towards debt forgiveness.

The recapitalisation of our banking sector allowed for limited debt forgiveness, however this was before the new Basle II capital requirements were agreed- which means banks have to hold more liquid assets on their balance sheets (typically 10%) to support their lending activities. Our banking sector is currently retiring their 'own bonds' aka bonds issued under the now defunct bank guarantee- 1.5 billion last week alone- and they are paying a hell of a lot more than the ECB rate to wean themselves off state and ECB support.

However you doll it up- and regardless of how many people you have calling Joe Duffy from Luton airport, or Heathrow, or Sydney, or Manitoba- it irrelevant in the grander scale of things. People can avail of the personal insolvency legislation from later this summer- who knows how many will. Its based on the Swedish model of Konkurs- and is designed to retire debt over the period of the insolvency (typically 5 years, though 7 years in some cases). If people want to walk away from their obligations- then they have to accept the repercussions of doing so- its not going to be a walk in the park, regardless of what the media tell you.

Widespread debt forgiveness though- wishful thinking unfortunately- there is no magic money tree we can raid to pay for it- even the National Pensions Reserve Fund- has been raided already- at the insistence of the ECB as a condition of our bailout.

If you want a debt forgiveness- you need to figure how to pay for it. We could go the road of the UK with a reasonable level of property tax, alongside a residential tax. The current amount- while we may be pissed to pay it- is a pittance, and not the international norm. The international norm is also to have a council tax paid by residents of council areas to support expenditure in their areas- regardless of the name of our property tax (The Local Property Tax) it is anything but- it goes into a central kitty and gets doled out as seen fit- my tax that I've had to borrow to pay- may well fix potholes in rural Donegal than benefit me and my family directly.

You can harp on about debt forgiveness until the cows come home- we don't have the money to pay for it, we don't have the capacity to borrow to cover it, and we certainly don't have the means to tax the population at large, to pay for it. One way or another- the ordinary Joe soap walking down the street pays for all public expenditure- and there is only a finite amount of blood you can squeeze from a stone.

murphaph

StillWaters wrote: »

divorce leads to an increase in demand for housing stock, and is one reason why we need a higher replacement rate than we used to.

and not just divorce. We are getting married later and later in life, remaining single longer. This is certainly the trend in Germany and where I live, the greatest shortage of dwellings is in the 1 bed sector.

Berlin has gone from a famous oversupply of "200k" units about 4 years ago to a housing shortage with 20+ people turning up for viewings anywhere inside the circle metro line.

Also, someone said housing was like any other commodity (and gave oil as an example). Housing to most Irish people is an emotive issue and can in no way be seen as a commodity because of the emotion many/most Irish attach to their home. As soon as you introduce this emotion factor, all bets are off and bidding wars ensue.

cson

The Spider wrote: »

Going to happen, I'm afraid, no recovery without it, for 30 odd years, either that or inflation swallows it, can't see that happening somehow.

Anyway I digress, link below, I know it's Carol Hunt but there's more and more of this type of thing.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/carol-hunt-homeowners-are-stuck-in-a-medieval-morality-play-29278161.html

I die a little inside every time someone links the Indo as a source for anything property related.

The Spider

cson wrote: »

I die a little inside every time someone links the Indo as a source for anything property related.

Ha, I know, I know, they were the cheerleaders, and I did feel a bit of a twinge posting it.

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Ha, you wish, no doubt to punish those who took out a mortgage, the debt is going to be forgiven, one way or the other.

I think a few other posters have answered you.
Kudos to smccarrick who spelt out the bottom line that we can't afford it.

Only thing I will add is ...
if even in your little world Irish taxpayers were screwed to pay for the debts to Irish banks, what happens to those who owe debts to NIB, Rabo, Ulster, KBC, Halifax/Bank of Scotland Ireland ?

Do the Dutch, Danes, Belgians, Brits (in some cases the taxpayers of those countries and not just the shareholders) all stump up to pay for the paddies who think they are entitled to bailouts on their debts.

I get the feeling you keep trotting out this line in the hope that if you say it often enough it will come true.

The Spider wrote: »

Ha, I know, I know, they were the cheerleaders, and I did feel a bit of a twinge posting it.

But you never appear to get a twinge when you suggest the rest of us should pay for the debts of some ?
Funny that.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

But you never appear to get a twinge when you suggest the rest of us should pay for the debts of some ?
Funny that.

Certainly don't because the greater good means it will have to be cancelled out written off, destroyed pick one, if not then I'm afraid this country is fubarred for the forseeable future, people won't spend money no new business, it's not difficult, so suck it up because yes debt forgiveness is the only way out really, see what Paul Krugman has to say on the matter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/03/opinion/krugman-debt-depression-demarco.html?_r=0

And yes it's the states, but regardless the same principle applies, and yes the taxpayer pays now, but claims it back when the economy begins to take off.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

I get the feeling you keep trotting out this line in the hope that if you say it often enough it will come true.

Nah bought a house last year for a third of the price it was, and paid a third up front so tiny mortgage, thanks very much, won't affect me, either way, but I'm not blinkered enough to know that it needs to happen.

vinylbomb

The Spider wrote: »

Going to happen, I'm afraid, no recovery without it, for 30 odd years, either that or inflation swallows it, can't see that happening somehow.

No chance.

The Spider

vinylbomb wrote: »

No chance.

Wait and see.....

Alan Shatter, and we all know he has info that we're not aware of :eek:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/shatter-says-insolvency-deals-may-lead-to-debt-forgiveness-1.1365234

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

Nah bought a house last year for a third of the price it was, and paid a third up front so tiny mortgage, thanks very much, won't affect me, either way, but I'm not blinkered enough to know that it needs to happen.

Forgot to mention the apartment though, didn't you? ;-)

Spin a big enough web of lies and eventually you get tangled up in it.

The Spider wrote: »

Wait and see.....

Alan Shatter, and we all know he has info that we're not aware of :eek:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/shatter-says-insolvency-deals-may-lead-to-debt-forgiveness-1.1365234

They lose the house and any forgiveness is on the outstanding debt only.