Aussie dollar falling

raymann

jank wrote: »

I'm waiting about the .75 mark myself.....

jank wrote: »

Yes, at the moment .75 looks far off but remember I said thereabouts. I am also hedged elsewhere so a lower AUD has a limited impact. It will definitely reach the .70 again mid term. Euro is looking stronger as well but all it takes is some bank to get into trouble and the nerves will go there as well.

jank wrote: »

.70 is not a figure that is beyond the scope of being reached again in the near and medium term. We are talking about a 5% increase at the current multi year lows that the AUDEUR is at at the moment. The market is positive on the euro at the moment so eyes are on the USD and other mining heavy currencies. I would just advise people to have a hedge (like I mentioned some posts back regarding the AUDUSD) and not put all eggs in one basket. Tapering was meant to happen in September but the fed are still a long way away from doing this. Interest rates rise will not be good for any debt heavy countries (see Japan as an example) so the US in a bind that they cannot get out of. Historically yes the AUD is high but maybe now is the new normal. We have to factor in facts like China and Western debt, facts that were not there even 5 years ago pre GFC.

I am not telling people what to do but I am personally waiting for it to go well above .70I can wait as I am not going anywhere yet and I have plenty of hedging as well. The days of .80+ are gone unless something exceptional happens to the euro. The Euro cannot survive as it is, so expect more headlines in the coming years. Then is the time to jump IMO.

i wonder if any people either in the thread or just reading it have lost money on the back reading your posts. your language is confident and assured but the actual advice is the definition of an armchair economist.

i pulling this up specifically because of the tone of your posts and to make the point that its SO important not to listen to the advice of random strangers on the internet on matters so serious.

catbear

The gold pimping on this thread was very amusing though.

sin_city

catbear wrote: »

The gold pimping on this thread was very amusing though.

What does that mean?

You seem to be into your trends and graphs.

See can you pick up anything about where the price of gold is going from this link that shows the average yearly gold price since 1833.

http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

If you plan on getting in and getting out in a short term fashion whether it be for gold, Australian dollars, shares or whatever then you are merely speculating.

If you are planning on staying in this country, buying shares for the long term or purchasing gold, silver or whatever then you are investing for the future.

The Australian dollar is going to be a very strong currency in the future long term due to its resources such as natural gas, gold, silver, uranium and so on.

During the last crash in 2007-08 people rushed towards the US dollar. I doubt that will happen next time. I doubt they will rush towards the euro either.

Have a look at the gold price since 1833 once again

Nothing has been fixed in Europe or the US.

jank

raymann wrote: »

i wonder if any people either in the thread or just reading it have lost money on the back reading your posts. your language is confident and assured but the actual advice is the definition of an armchair economist.

i pulling this up specifically because of the tone of your posts and to make the point that its SO important not to listen to the advice of random strangers on the internet on matters so serious.

Chip on your shoulder? I did quanitfy that with mid term. Mid term is a period of a few years in finance speek not weeks or months.....
Even the posts that you quote spelt out the fact that I am not telling people what to do, just giving a personal opinion, telling people to hedge and spread the risk.

I can wait, years if need be as I am not going anywhere soon, also for the 4th time I have hedged.....
Another option again which I mentioned many times is go AUD->USD. Euro seems strong at the moment hence the headwinds.

I still maintain that .70 will be reached again in the medium term. Tapering has been announced and it was already priced in by the looks of it. Housing is booming in Australia at the moment, record low interest rates.... they can only go one way... Of course China will have a say but increased demand in europe and the US will help that as well.
If I am wrong than the only one affected is me.

By all means make a call, hurler on the ditch comes to mind.

AngryHippie

jank wrote: »

I still maintain that .70 will be reached again in the medium term.
Housing is booming in Australia at the moment
Record low interest rates....

Yeah, housing is going to do the IRL07 shuffle pretty soon. Trying to squeeze people into buying with a squat low comparison rate in a variable market is not gonna cut it for me.
Anyone buying property this side of July has rocks in their head.

The tide has turned, and it is starting to pick up some pace. I'm glad the current administration are in the driving seat, at least they won't try and spend their way out of it.

Nothing has been sorted out anywhere. Nobody has addressed the elephant in the room, at some point in my lifetime, either the wheels will come off, or the way we all do business will have to change.

Either way, it's a pretty horrible time to try and make business decisions for your own future.

catbear

As amusing as gold pimping has been I do think bitcoin has stolen some of its thunder!

Here's another tip.



On the internet nobody knows you're a dog.

raymann

jank wrote: »

Chip on your shoulder? I did quanitfy that with mid term. Mid term is a period of a few years in finance speek not weeks or months.....
Even the posts that you quote spelt out the fact that I am not telling people what to do, just giving a personal opinion, telling people to hedge and spread the risk.

I can wait, years if need be as I am not going anywhere soon, also for the 4th time I have hedged.....
Another option again which I mentioned many times is go AUD->USD. Euro seems strong at the moment hence the headwinds.

I still maintain that .70 will be reached again in the medium term. Tapering has been announced and it was already priced in by the looks of it. Housing is booming in Australia at the moment, record low interest rates.... they can only go one way... Of course China will have a say but increased demand in europe and the US will help that as well.
If I am wrong than the only one affected is me.

By all means make a call, hurler on the ditch comes to mind.

again, ill stress my point for others, dont listen to randoms on the internet making predictions about forex and offering advice. instead look at the situation right now and make your decision or speak to proper professionals.

the situation right now is your selling just off the top of a ten year high. that is the situation. trying to guess the movements up or down over the next few months is virtually impossible.

what you have written above is vague and unspecific and clouds this central point i am trying to make. when i read it in the context of things you posted earlier in the thread it comes across more as a set of caveats than any basis to make financial decisions. on this basis i would actually make a point to avoid following any advice from you, because of the high risk you are just a chancer that has no idea what he is going on about.

Giruilla

Japan just went through a very similar 3 year currency rise during the recession as Aus... its now back close to the 10 year average.

cnocbui

raymann wrote: »

again, ill stress my point for others, dont listen to randoms on the internet making predictions about forex and offering advice. instead look at the situation right now and make your decision or speak to proper professionals.

the situation right now is your selling just off the top of a ten year high. that is the situation. trying to guess the movements up or down over the next few months is virtually impossible.

what you have written above is vague and unspecific and clouds this central point i am trying to make. when i read it in the context of things you posted earlier in the thread it comes across more as a set of caveats than any basis to make financial decisions. on this basis i would actually make a point to avoid following any advice from you, because of the high risk you are just a chancer that has no idea what he is going on about.

Just off the top?

The top was around 0.85, the ten year average is 0.623 and it's currently at 0.647. That looks to me like it's far closer to the average than the top.

Tigerandahalf

Being reading a few articles about this.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/australia-dollar-devalue/

sin_city

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Being reading a few articles about this.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/australia-dollar-devalue/

So Australia should get involved in all the gangster low interest rate game like Europe and the US?

It's says a lot about a country when it has 0% interest rates in a attempt to build another bubble.

The low rates caused the housing crisis in the US and in Ireland for that matter too.

That article is one of many that has seen the Aussie Dollar talked down.

All this rubbish is part of the race to the bottom going all around the world on currencies. Everyone is devaluing.


The US is still seen as the benchmark and the US is still fcuked. If anyone think they are going to pay that $17 trillion back they are very misled. Taking this into account their interest rates would be way way higher.

All of this intervention is going to fcuk things up even bigger in a few years and this time a bailout or bail in won't work

jank

raymann wrote: »

the situation right now is your selling just off the top of a ten year high. that is the situation. trying to guess the movements up or down over the next few months is virtually impossible..

That is not true. AUDEUR is just above the long term average now.

raymann wrote: »

what you have written above is vague and unspecific and clouds this central point i am trying to make. when i read it in the context of things you posted earlier in the thread it comes across more as a set of caveats than any basis to make financial decisions. on this basis i would actually make a point to avoid following any advice from you, because of the high risk you are just a chancer that has no idea what he is going on about.

What did I say that is high risk in my posts by the way?

You mean telling people to "spread their risk" "hedge" "don’t put all your eggs in one basket" "don’t use a normal bank for large FX" "saying nobody knows 100% where FX moves" "examine forward contracts if you want to lock in a rate" "stay away from precious metals" "double your money in fortnight mentality is a recipe for disaster".... all bad advice. Tell me what is good advice then?

The above is sound advice in my opinion (you are free to disagree), you only took exception to one line in about a dozen posts I have made in this thread regarding the 70.c mark. Maybe in hindsight I shouldn't have used such a definitive statement however, if some random person read all my posts in total and made a decision based on that one line while disregarding all the rest then sorry but I cant help someone like that.

And I did say categorically

I am not telling people what to do

This is a public discussion forum where people are free to talk about the movements of the AUDEUR FX rate. Anyone is free to give their opinion and that I what I have done. Some think gold or silver is a good idea, some are waiting for a better rate, some are fearful that the rate will get worse so they want to cash out now. Some may disagree with it all and offer an alternative view point. It is all part of the course of the discussion.

There is also an investment forum on boards.ie where people are free to talk about investing and future possibilities when it comes to securities. One is free to talk about a whole range of products, be they are ETFs, Mutual funds, Long term cash deposits, Bonds, CFD etc. What is frowned upon in that forum are posters who pan all suggestion without offering alternative view points. People are free to disagree that security X is not undervalued but a dog but one has to state why and it is deemed polite to offer an alternative. The mantra "seek professional advice" is a get out clause to pursuing a discussion. Otherwise this thread would have one post that would state just that and the investing forum would be closed with the same "Seek Professional Advice" banner.

Seeking professional advice is good advice of course but sometimes its fun to talk about topics close to our heart with like minded people who share similar interests. Hence why we have this thread and investing forum....

So instead of nit-picking one line out of hundreds I have written in this very thread perhaps you can offer your own view?

catbear

I agree with Jank.

If I had acted on profession advice I've received in the past I'd be under a mountain of debt now. In the end there's no substitute for research, discussion and common sense.

catbear

Bit of a bounce this week.

the flananator

catbear wrote: »

Bit of a bounce this week.

Noticed that. Starting to slip back down again now I'm afraid. Not sure what caused the (modest) spike.

Trying to weigh up the benefits of the superior savings account interest rates on offer by my Australian bank, versus the likely continued devaluation of the dollar. Think for me at least its time to move my money home.

Deposited some money into my currency fair account for the first time this evening, suppose it will take a few days before it hits their account and I can exchange it into my Irish account.

catbear

the flananator wrote: »

Deposited some money into my currency fair account for the first time this evening, suppose it will take a few days before it hits their account and I can exchange it into my Irish account.

During the working week it only seems to take one day between my account and currencyfair Australian branch, then convert, money usually arrives in Irish bank two days later.

The odd thing is interbank transfers within Ireland take longer than converting and sending money home from Aus!

Legend100

catbear wrote: »

During the working week it only seems to take one day between my account and currencyfair Australian branch, then convert, money usually arrives in Irish bank two days later.

The odd thing is interbank transfers within Ireland take longer than converting and sending money home from Aus!

My transfer home is usually in my BOI account the same day if I send the money home in the morning Aussie time. If I send later in the day Aussie time, it takes an additional day normally for me.

really can't praise currencyfair enough for their service!!!

the flananator

Is exchange by quick trade the best way of doing it?

Legend100

the flananator wrote: »

Is exchange by quick trade the best way of doing it?

I've tried the marketplace a few times but have never got a better rate than quick trade. Some on here have said they have however

Joe Doe

few points:

• Playing fx/commodities is likely a 'taxable event', stick with the lotto/gee-gees.
• Forsee AUD strong for next few years though is overvalued, (got x3 GBP in '00).
• Trouble is brewing for 2050, Aus disappears way off the top 20 list then (currently enjoying #12 position). Then the MINT-BRICK's are kicking it lively. I for one, may* welcome our new Chinese overlords, though not the msg laden food. *might not.

source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25548060

Only solution is for Canberra to fling the migration doors open now and do what the UK is currently doing (letting everyone with two legs in as a power booster). The UK will 'allegedly' surprisingly even overtake ze Germans (them with over 80m work-efficient peps and bags of exports) by then - but god knows what the most crowded island will be like by then...

AngryHippie

few points:
• Forsee AUD strong for next few years though is overvalued, (got x3 GBP in '00).
• Trouble is brewing for 2050, Aus disappears way off the top 20 list then (currently enjoying #12 position). Then the MINT-BRICK's are kicking it lively. I for one, may* welcome our new Chinese overlords, though not the msg laden food. *might not.

source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25548060

Only solution is for Canberra to fling the migration doors open now and do what the UK is currently doing (letting everyone with two legs in as a power booster). The UK will 'allegedly' surprisingly even overtake ze Germans (them with over 80m work-efficient peps and bags of exports) by then - but god knows what the most crowded island will be like by then...

I'm gonna have to disagree with the MINT-BRICKS prediction there. purely for the fact that they have no power. They have wonderful demographics, but poor politics and precarious power balances. Turkey has a link to both sides of the Levant, but neither side trusts them due to their links to both sides of the cold war as conduits. They will continue to be the b1tch of whomsoever passes resources through for a fee, and won't manage to pull it together because nobody will ultimately hop into trade agreements/unions with them.
Mexico ? please, the US will never let them get powerful enough to pull any stunts, regardless of what their demographics are like. They will always get stuck in as they have in Central America since forever.
Nigeria - Probably the most corrupt country in the world, and that is the main asset it has for trade, but it won't be long term, as the WB will just shock the balls out of their economy every time they don't do as their told.
Indonesia has probably the best chance of all of these, as it actually has pretty strong links to the entire Asian market, and resources of Aus, all without an serious long-term distrust or history of conflict. I'd reckon they may up their game, but that will be a boost to the entire region rather than a drag on any single one of them.

In short, 3 of the MINT countries, MN & T, while they have the correct atmosphere for growth, are also extremely vulnerable because of their power structures, neighbors and histories.
I'd take that article (with a large shake of salt) as someone throwing mucky predictions at an ever changing wall, hoping that they can play the told you so card.

sin_city

Australia is going to boom.

No one lives here and they have everything that everyone else is going to buy.

They have huge supplies of copper, gas, gold and so on.

Large silver reserves (second most used commodity after oil), also some oil reserves and the biggy, between 25% and 33% of the world's uranium which is perhaps going to power all the nuclear stations that those people in India and China will need for the massive population.

They also have a fantastic agricultural industry and most important of all they have a pretty liberal economy.

If you want to see the way to go just take a look at Chile regarding resources and liberal economies.

Best to research something and develop your own opinion rather than just plonk rubbish from the BBC.

As for the Aussie Dollar at present, expect it to pick up once the US resumes tapering to prevent the 10 year T note rate from rising.

Joe Doe

few more points..

1. Source = world bank & gs (publisher {bbc} is not report owner/writer)
2. M: already part of NAFTA & SPP, 40m spanish speakers in the usa, not only will the us REQUIRE more open direct TAs with M, but will likely also 'need free and open access direct trade with entire EU zone' just to level the field with Chinatown by '50. Some sort of 'Atlantic zone' treaty.
4. I: agree, already booming even now via professional offshore services from creative to technical, a significant large young educated population familiar with tapping on qwerty boards.
4. N: Chinese overwhelming presence in Africa in '50.
5. T: will be active part of EU, (and its largest/populous state) LONG BEFORE '50.

5. Aus: with only circa 22.68m folks, think they may become severely limited growth-wise across far too many areas from defense, r&d, land management and particularly 'on-line active presence' (think '20G VR/AR/AU Hyper Web') by then) to be a serious active world player. Will need more than mining.

// Only query is still how the uk could overtake ze Germans, suspect the report is localised and biased towards a very high gbp currency valuation for 2050.

AngryHippie

Joe Doe wrote: »

few more points..
1. Source = world bank & gs (publisher {bbc} is not report owner/writer)

Even more reason to be skeptical

Joe Doe wrote: »

2. M: already part of NAFTA & SPP, 40m spanish speakers in the usa, not only will the us REQUIRE more open direct TAs with M, but will likely also 'need free and open access direct trade with entire EU zone' just to level the field with Chinatown by '50. Some sort of 'Atlantic zone' treaty.

It's not about the language with Mexico, it's about the politics. The US will only enter trade agreements with Mexico for their own exclusive benefit, same with the labor force, they will fish whatever skills they require from across the rio grande, and set the dogs on the rest.
Their historical treatment of the entire region is despicable, and there is no reason to suggest or expect that will change.

Joe Doe wrote: »

4. N: Chinese overwhelming presence in Africa in '50.

Yup, raping the country (and surrounding regions) for resources, not building an economy. While there is enough money kicking around Nigeria at the moment for a reasonable portion of the economy to raise their standard of living, don't forget how mobile and volatile the people in the region are. Ultimately this is a result of their vulnerability. Africa. Stretch or Starve.

Joe Doe wrote: »

5. T: will be active part of EU, (and its largest/populous state) LONG BEFORE '50.

Turkey will only be a part of the EU if "Ze Germans" think it is a good idea. Personally I think it would be a disaster. most of the country is firmly in Asia ffs. Not only is it a massive cultural leap, but also a substantial political divide between how the EU conducts its affairs, and how Turkey does. I think they will remain sitting on the fence, being used by the US, EU and Russia for a co-operation fee off the top.

Joe Doe wrote: »

5. Aus: with only circa 22.68m folks, think they may become severely limited growth-wise across far too many areas from defense, r&d, land management and particularly 'on-line active presence' (think '20G VR/AR/AU Hyper Web') by then) to be a serious active world player. Will need more than mining.

What ?
Agriculture & Mining sectors do pretty well in Australia, and are probably as well resourced as anywhere in the world. The risk elements for "land management" are the relatively fragile ecosystems and susceptibility to Anthropogenic Climate Change.
As for their small population, that's an asset rather than a burden. When the Australian Economy needs skilled workers, they start issuing working visas to individuals from overseas to fill the positions. The people come, bringing skills into the economy, and generally, spending most of what they earn, right back into the economy. As opposed to the circumstances in Mexico and Nigeria, where the either train or recruit in-country (or spend years fudging around learning everything the hard way) only to have their skilled workers bolt to the 1st world as soon as they get a job offer.

I think that the report is a bit disingenuous and to try and foresee to 2050, in a period when population globally is expected to increase by 50%, Carbon emissions, Oil supply, Food supply and Climate change need to be addressed......Its a nonsense in my opinion to start suggesting that this country or that country is going to be the new driving force.
The only truth is nobody knows.

Joe Doe

Yep, you're probably right on most of that, and socio-economics could well be fairly unrecognisable even by 2020, indeed '50 way to far off to speculate due to rates of change.

Do still think however Aus will need closer to 80-100m just to pack a good punch on the world stage and hold its high currency in future years. Outside of 5 or so very dispersed cities and 'fairly nearby' nz, there is just vast empty space and they will be competing with other merging trade zones (currently x3 of between 330m-1bn each) in much more localised areas, unless they bed up with the I from mint or C from bricks and transport/infrastructure speeds up vastly to ship out the ore faster as needs grow,

Around the 2020's we could maybe see a few of the following:

- Super-sized free-trade economic zones (circa 1bn each), around 5 encompassing most of global trade and thus more currency mergers.
- AI (automation) replacing* most manual/admin/retail labour needs.
- Fully fracked areas of land mass.
- 50hr work weeks (*if you can get it) in the West.
- China holding the only off planetary station and/or moonbase.
- 'quadtrillions' of smart RFIDs and thus diminishment of privacy or off-grid, but hey you won't ever loose those car keys again.
- Maybe a few side effects of 5G quad 2.4ghz emmerging.
- Slight risk of drone wars, daily dos attacks, skybots commonplace.
- VR & Augmented Reality becomes the main comms channel. 8k flexi-tvs etc...

// Why isn't that 'tomorrow's world' show still on tv?

AngryHippie

Joe Doe wrote: »

transport/infrastructure speeds up vastly to ship out the ore faster as needs grow,

Thats where most of the tens of billions spent in the mining sector have gone. Surat Basin and Pilbara getting the bulk of it. The ports are set to become the next bottleneck, but as commodity prices have slipped, the reality is instead of the profits being available to profit off upgraded infrastructure, it will have to be run flat out to break even.
Barrier Reef is going to become the major sticking point for doing any more with it from QLD, WA is slightly easier, but more cyclone prone, and far more expensive for labor/infrastructure.
[/QUOTE]

Joe Doe wrote: »

- AI (automation) replacing* most manual/admin/retail labour needs.

Definitely in the retail sector, possibly in the admin to an extent, but not anytime soon, as for manual labor, we are definitely 20 years away from having robots capable of replacing skilled labor outside of a very limited process role. The Japs would be working hard towards this, as someone needs to fix the Fukupshima mess, pretty sharpish too, before it kills the entire pacific fishing industry

Joe Doe wrote: »

- Fully fracked areas of land mass.

I am still very skeptical of Fracking and CSG as being the future of our energy needs. I'm petrified from the Gasland saga, that untold damage is being done to Aquifers. This will be Australia's death knell. If the groundwater west of the dividing range gets contaminated, the country is fukced. Simples. The entire regions depends on Bores for survival.

Joe Doe wrote: »

- 50hr work weeks (*if you can get it) in the West.

I haven't worked less than a 50 hour week in years. :pac:

Joe Doe wrote: »

- China holding the only off planetary station and/or moonbase.

To what end ? China will do it for a profit. The only reason it hasn't been done is there is no benefit until there is somewhere outside of this planet worth going. The Moon being particularly useless.
Until such time as the planet being within a generation of being fcuked beyond habitation, there will be no incentive for interplanetary travel, which until then will languish in the imaginations of those who dream big.

Joe Doe wrote: »

- 'quadtrillions' of smart RFIDs and thus diminishment of privacy or off-grid, but hey you won't ever loose those car keys again.

By 2050, we will be a long way beyond cars. Privacy is already gone unless you are living under a rock.

Joe Doe wrote: »

- Slight risk of drone wars, daily dos attacks, skybots commonplace.

I'm really not sure about this one at all, generally it will still be people killing people, unless there is a total game-changing skynet situation emerging.
At present full autonomy hasn't been given to a machine to kill to the best of my knowledge. The person that enables that circuit will have to be a psychotic sociopath or a total idiot.

Joe Doe wrote: »

- VR & Augmented Reality becomes the main comms channel. 8k flexi-tvs etc...

Yes, electronics companies will continue to manufacture newer and better toys that we don't need and then convince us that we want them, that they will make our lives better, and we'll keep buying them. That is inevitable in our consumer driven state of humanity.

catbear

Soooooo, anyone any thoughts on what the aus/eur is going to do over the next month?

sin_city

How would a stock market correction in the US affect things?

I think the people in power are intent on talking down the Aussie dollar.

The market put it at 83, 84, 85 cents against the Euro but the RBA has done well in it's aim to bring it down.

I don't see much changing in the next month. Actually for 2014 I don't see why things should change.

Long term I see the Aussie going up again as Europe and the US are fcuked.

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

The market put it at 83, 84, 85 cents against the Euro but the RBA has done well in it's aim to bring it down.

I presume you meant against the US$?

As long as it bounces along at its current rate for the next month then great.

Timistry

I have all of my saving in Oz. A busy schedule over the last year doing FIFO means that the historic high exchange rates (80c+) have come and gone now and I have lost alot of $$$/euro, in relative terms but not in long term average terms...

The exchange rate recovered to circa 66c during the week but now it has fallen back down to circa 64c today. A few questions:

Why is the Oz$ linked so strongly to the US$? They are not their biggest trading partner etc so it makes no sense to me. Talks of further US tapering next week is more bad news.

Euro stocks are on the up now and confidence is growing in Germany, the UK and Ireland(Moodys upgrade etc). but due to the US link, this appears to be making no difference!

The aim of me being in Oz on my own is to build a future for myself (and future family) in Ireland. However, this is being eroded by the currency exchange rates. I have invested in high interest accounts etc to maximise my savings and hedge, but what other advice can ye give?