Aussie dollar falling

sin_city

FernandoTorres wrote: »

Decent article here on the various factors that influence the $AUD.

https://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/our-experts/david-taylor/article/-/24682071/aussie-dollar-just-how-low-can-it-go-against-the-greenback/

Can't believe people think the US will increase its interest rates....The game is over for them.

The average interest payment on US debt is 2.4% on the debt of about $17 trillion which is about $222 billion.

This is low due to zero percent interest rates...what do you think will happen if the interest rate goes to 1% or even 2%?

Their economy is not growing....the debt is only expanding(ponzi scheme) and if the interest rates increase it's all up.

Interest rates were around 20% in 1980 btw.


So, take all that into account and lose the propaganda from the US and Europe(which is also in bad shape)...Australia is doing fine...Once they get through the next few years with the Liberals fixing the economy and as long as the rest of the world doesn't pull Oz into recession, the AUD should go higher.....It has been going higher today and is approaching 69.5 against the euro....

I expect Europe to print money before end of year.

catbear

So Sincity, no more rate cuts from the RBA?

sin_city

I' not sure. I believe western central bankers collude with each other to protect the US dollar.

Australia does not want to drive a housing bubble so I would say it will stay at 2.5%

I'd love to see an increase like in NZ where it has moved to 3.5%

Regardless, Europe will print money in the future which will weaken the currency there.

res ipsa

Got over 70 on currency fair last night.

sin_city

Draghi more or less said he will be printing money at central bankers conference.

It should go higher in the next few months

statina

Transferred a good sum last night with it going up to 70 with currency fair. Hopefully it will keep rising!

EskimoJack

71c now and rising

cnocbui

Should have gone to Specsavers.

Legend100

EU inflation figures out tomorrow......have a bit sitting in currencyfair as wanted to send home when it is above 0.70

Do I wait until tomorrow and take the risk? anyone have a crystal ball by any chance???

sin_city

Legend100 wrote: »

EU inflation figures out tomorrow......have a bit sitting in currencyfair as wanted to send home when it is above 0.70

Do I wait until tomorrow and take the risk? anyone have a crystal ball by any chance???

I could be wrong but I'd say wait...The inflation will be lower than the bankers want(not the people who don't want it) and then Draghi will hint about money printing.

Hopefully we're on the way to 75 cents

jank

Yes, I think .75 would be the mark people would be waiting for if they have time to wait. It may be another 6-12 months. Of course it also depends how much the expected QE has the market priced in. Good news for stocks though.

jank

*cough*
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88068114&postcount=272

aido79

I think someone should change the title of this thread..

catbear

aido79 wrote: »

I think someone should change the title of this thread..

Compared to a couple of years ago it's still a lot lower.
Then again ore was selling above $140 whereas now it's dropped below $90.
While ECB may print the A$ may alternatively be weakened by reduced Chinese demand.
It's often forgotten how exposed and dependent australia has become to Chinese demand yet that's exactly what has made it a hard currency recently. Would it have rebounded from its 08 nadir as easily without China?



I'm hopeful it will go higher as I'll be cashing out soon but won't be surprised if there's a general Australia selloff soon. The four big banks economists coming out together to say there's no housing bubble has put us past the official denial stage.

sin_city

It's not about the Australian dollar...its about the Euro's weakness..IF anyone's looks at my posts I have been pretty on the mark over the past 6 months on this thread...and yes, we should change the title.

catbear

sin_city wrote: »

It's not about the Australian dollar...its about the Euro's weakness..IF anyone's looks at my posts I have been pretty on the mark over the past 6 months on this thread...and yes, we should change the title.

Fair enough but do you see it regain the highs of two years ago?

sin_city

I don't know, it pretty hard to say 70 cents was a barrier that it could not break for a while.

Everything depends on Europe and Europe in general is a mess.

They'll print money while here the Liberals are cutting back and being responsible.

AngryHippie

The Liberals just might be able to keep a lid on it if they get public expenditure under control and manage to address the deficits.
As for the property bubble, it is a very real situation. People are being absolutely bonkers about property values. Luckily enough the worm is turning relatively slowly. The bite is obvious in places like Mackay, that had a huge surge, and now the prices have stabilised, but nothing is selling. Plenty of speculative places up for sale, but its dead in the ar$e now the construction phase of Caval Ridge is done.
Gladstone will be the next to go wallop once the LNG construction phases start to wind down.
The lucky thing is that it is demand based, but anyone that can't offset 12 months of mortage payments from the get go is hopping straight into murky waters IMO.
I've got a first home saver running, but it could end up being dumped into Super yet, unless prices slip, or don't rise for 12 months.

As for State Capital city prices, Absolute madness. 550k for 2 bed apartments 6k from CBD in BNE. nuts.
I'd rather pay half that and commute, less of a fall even if it does go sideways.

The currency could be the saving grace, as they have total control of interest and supply.

sin_city

AngryHippie wrote: »

The currency could be the saving grace, as they have total control of interest and supply.

Who?

AngryHippie

RBA

sin_city

As I said, Draghi would cut rates...he did and now the dollar is rising towards 72 cents

cnocbui

Yes!

72.26 and climbing

jank

Touching about 72.5 now..

To put the latest moves into perspective, every $10,000 you would have converted from AUD to EUR would have netted you about an extra 700 euro, compared to the XE rate now and that 1st of Jan.

If people want to hold this rate but may not be leaving OZ for another 12 months then I would suggest a forward contract i.e lock in the rate today to use later on (minus a margin of course!)

Any good money transfer companies will give you this option.

baldshin

I'm looking to move some money from Euro to $, unfortunately! Can anyone give me some advice on whether to cut my losses and transfer now, or do you think the current trend will reverse or stop anytime soon?

mandrake04

baldshin wrote: »

I'm looking to move some money from Euro to $, unfortunately! Can anyone give me some advice on whether to cut my losses and transfer now, or do you think the current trend will reverse or stop anytime soon?

Just a thought

Carlosd

Doubt you'll get a forward unless the amount you book is significant and you pay a deposit of approx 10%

jank

Yea, deposit of 10% is standard and yes, it would be a 5 figure sum. Handy for those thinking of heading back and bringing back their savings with them.

the flananator

Has dropped down a point...any indication as to why this is?

jank

Profit taking? Sell the rumor buy the news?

commited

Tanking pretty badly