Aussie dollar falling

res ipsa

Legend100 wrote: »

market rate from bloomberg

Back under 70. 69 is the new 70.

hussey

.69553 grrr

jank

The AUDUSD is actually very favourable but the euro is gaining strength in line with the recent push of the AUD hence why the .69-70 levels we are seeing lately. All it takes is one bad headline and that will become .73+ in a matter of a weeks.

If you want to be sneaky one could move into USD hold it there and then move it into Euro once there is a bit of a pull back.

ifeelill

RBA interest rate to remain unchanged at 2.5%

Source: 9 News

sin_city

There's a lot of talk of the Euro been "eased", basically money printing. If this kicks off the AUD will get stronger again.

the flananator

Back up over .70

Hoping it climbs up a bit further before my return to the old country next month!

ifeelill

There is some speculation that QE will be tapered in the US making the USD stronger thereby devaluing the AUD. When this will happen is anyone's guess.

catbear

It really is a constant will they/won't they?

It suits me for the Aus$ to strengthen, especially if I'm cashing out my super.

sin_city

ifeelill wrote: »

There is some speculation that QE will be tapered in the US making the USD stronger thereby devaluing the AUD. When this will happen is anyone's guess.

This won't happen. They have to keep buying bonds to keep the rates low so that the US can service its massive debt....hence that is why the US is fcuked.

The USD might get stronger nevertheless because Europe will probably start printing money too soon.

Some people think you can either have Eur or USD, so once one is week the other is strong...or stronger..

Australia raised its debt ceiling from $300 billion to $500 billion very quietly a few weeks ago, so at last the Aussies can get in on the act and start printing too!!! :eek:

It should still be stronger in the future though because nothing has been fixed in Europe or in the US.

US will never taper.

sin_city

As expected the ECB cut the rate so expect the euro to weaken a little bit more

rightyabe

So could the $ € hit 0.75?

jank

I'm waiting about the .75 mark myself.....

res ipsa

sin_city wrote: »

As expected the ECB cut the rate so expect the euro to weaken a little bit more

I didn't expect it.

sin_city

res ipsa wrote: »

I didn't expect it.

Well I did and I predicted in my post in this thread before the cut was made.

Timistry

A shocking drop over the last few days Are we on a slippery slope now or just a temporary drop?

catbear

Don't know but the last time it dropped i buckled and changed a good chunk, a few weeks later it was back up at .70!

I reckon we'll definitely see a much weaker aus$ next year but in the short term can't say.

c0rk3r

Jaysus theres goes another chunk of money lost in the exchange rate

cnocbui

jank wrote: »

I'm waiting about the .75 mark myself.....

You might be waiting awhile.

skippy2

Would feel that the AUD is only going one way. I am waiting to change Eur to AUD and will wait further. If i was coming home to Ireland I would have changed while it was up over the last few months. Once US signals end to QE and economy in AU gets worse it will only loose more of its value. I would not be waiting for .75

c0rk3r

Leaving Australia tomorrow and was doing some banking before i head. The exchange rate with anz is currently 0.64 !! Damn near lost my monoacle with the surprise.

What do you reckon just cash out now and never look at the exchange rate again or hold until the new year? Mind you i've lost almost 1 thousand euro this week alone

the flananator

In the same boat. Any particular reason for the sudden drop?

catbear

c0rk3r wrote: »

Leaving Australia tomorrow and was doing some banking before i head. The exchange rate with anz is currently 0.64 !! Damn near lost my monoacle with the surprise.

What do you reckon just cash out now and never look at the exchange rate again or hold until the new year? Mind you i've lost almost 1 thousand euro this week alone

Using an online currency exchange like currencyfair is cheaper than using the mainstreet banks.

c0rk3r

Yeah i use currencyfair, checked it out before i left the house to go to the bank (0.673). The teller was similing telling me "oh we only charge you 8 dollars to convert the lot". Don't think she was aware that she was losing me a couple of thousand euro with that horseshít rate

the flananator

c0rk3r wrote: »

Yeah i use currencyfair, checked it out before i left the house to go to the bank (0.673). The teller was similing telling me "oh we only charge you 8 dollars to convert the lot". Don't think she was aware that she was losing me a couple of thousand euro with that horseshít rate

I'm sure she was aware. They are unscrupulous.

sin_city

the flananator wrote: »

In the same boat. Any particular reason for the sudden drop?

The RBA "spoke" about intervening to bring the AUD down.

China announced last week that is will not be increasing it's purchase of US bonds so I guess the race to devaluation will be won by the US who are intent on destroying their currency.

The Federal Reserve also hinted at tapering but their was no actual mention of it in the minutes of their meeting.

It seems like very little is needed to move the markets these days. I expect the Aussie dollar to gradually climb again as it has done repeatedly over the past few months when something like this has happened.

It's not that Australia is so strong, its that Europe and the US are so weak. The perception that Europe and the US are improving is a bit of a joke but this is what is strengthening the value of the Euro and USD.

Lucifer-0

sin_city wrote: »

The RBA "spoke" about intervening to bring the AUD down.

China announced last week that is will not be increasing it's purchase of US bonds so I guess the race to devaluation will be won by the US who are intent on destroying their currency.

The Federal Reserve also hinted at tapering but their was no actual mention of it in the minutes of their meeting.

It seems like very little is needed to move the markets these days. I expect the Aussie dollar to gradually climb again as it has done repeatedly over the past few months when something like this has happened.

It's not that Australia is so strong, its that Europe and the US are so weak. The perception that Europe and the US are improving is a bit of a joke but this is what is strengthening the value of the Euro and USD.

Could the Indonesia fiasco have an impact too?

res ipsa

Lucifer-0 wrote: »

Could the Indonesia fiasco have an impact too?

Nah just the jawboning from Glen Stevens.

jank

Yes, at the moment .75 looks far off but remember I said thereabouts. I am also hedged elsewhere so a lower AUD has a limited impact. It will definitely reach the .70 again mid term. Euro is looking stronger as well but all it takes is some bank to get into trouble and the nerves will go there as well.

raymann

jank wrote: »

Yes, at the moment .75 looks far off but remember I said thereabouts. I am also hedged elsewhere so a lower AUD has a limited impact. It will definitely reach the .70 again mid term. Euro is looking stronger as well but all it takes is some bank to get into trouble and the nerves will go there as well.

do people actually take posts like this seriously? it definitely will, will it? you do realise this plateau between .7 and .8 is a historic high that only lasted three years on the back of exceptional circumstances in europe and australia.

even selling now you are doing so at the top end of the curve from a historical perspective, thats the way it should be looked at. rather than hoping to second guess the next 'certainty' that its going to return to an all time high.

the only people affected are people that have saved in the last three years, and even then the loss is minimal. anyone who has been saving over 5 years has made a killing.

cnocbui

I think he's right.

When you talk of historical perspective and look back decades, sure the current high seems like a plateau, but I think what this fails to acknowledge is that Australia has seen a fairly rapid and substantial increase in population over that period and its economy is larger and more substantial.

A lot of the appreciation in the dollar has been on the back of mining investment and demand from China. While China's economy appears to have slowed, somewhat, there is just no way it is going to contract or stall long-term, so the demand for Australian exports is not going to wane - which would be required to justify the dollar slipping back to the sort of historical levels you refer to. The potential for growth in China is enormous and it will happen. Australia's economy is not going back, its going to be dragged along.

The AU/EU just jumped 0.57% in an hour on realisation things were not as dire for the Australian economy as the RBA seems to have been thinking:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/28/is-australias-economy-sinking-or-swimming/?KEYWORDS=australia

That article talks of mining companies being committed to investing A$240 Billion. For a population of 20 Million that is massive - A$12,000 a head.

Contrast that to Ireland where the Government has to extract about €32,000 from every tax payer to service the bailout.

Speaking of which, I am bemused as to why the Euro is so strong. Greece can't stay in the Eurozone, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are stuffed and when those chooks come home to roost it will be back to the fun times and It would be surprising if the € didn't take a hit.