Football Betting Dos and Don'ts for Beginners

akthung

Hi sports betting geeks, I'm a newbie in football betting and in this forum. I'm scared to lose on my very first try so I came here for some help before I dive into real stakes. Can you guys share me (us) some beginner tips? How to maximize winnings and minimize losses? Where to find the best football odds? Or perhaps share your first betting experience? I'd really like to learn a lot. Thanks!

Scoobydooo

I've one word for you and thats discipline, keeping your stakes sensible and not chasing losses is the way to be a smart gambler. As for odds I've found they vary greatly by bookmakers and the sports you're interested in so open up a number of accounts would be my advice, Bet365, Betfair and a few others are ones I use.

akthung

Thanks, man! I'll keep that in mind. Sometimes, people get too excited with the thought of winning big that they forget not to bet money that they CANNOT lose and their priorities suffer. I think football betting should just be another form of recreation that will add excitement to the game (people say that ). Maybe a good way to discipline oneself is to separate a "recreational" money from your income and stick to it? And if you lose, just try again and don't cry, right? As regards betting accounts, how many do you keep? Is 10 too much, or how many is manageable anyway?

Austria!

Similar thread here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056789020

Link to the brilliant bet of the week site here

http://betoftheweek.net/

Read everything under betting theory.

akthung

@Austria!: Thanks for the link, it's real helpful. I looked for some more info from blogs too and found this tip.

For first-timers bet on the winner of the game itself (the “money line”), on the point spread between the favored team and the underdog or simply on points earned by popular players.

While the money line is pretty straightforward, I don't think betting on points earned by star players is good for starters. I highly doubt I'd win on that type of bet. What do you think?

akthung

Hey, can someone please explain to me what "value" betting is? If we can use the Confederations Cup, Brazil vs Japan this June 16 as an example, that'd be great. Thanks!

DB74

akthung wrote: »

Hey, can someone please explain to me what "value" betting is? If we can use the Confederations Cup, Brazil vs Japan this June 16 as an example, that'd be great. Thanks!

Betting Odds represent Probabilities of an event occurring

TRUE odds means that something that has odds of 3/1 has a 1 in 4 (or 25%) chance of happening and a 3 in 4 (or 75%) chance of not happening

In reality bookmaker price in their margins and other factors come into play, but as this Value Betting 101, I'll ignore those for the moment - the theory holds true anyway

Common examples of TRUE odds (where the outcome is known perfectly) are:

1. Tossing a fair coin - the odds of a coin landing on "heads" are 50% as there is an equal probability that the coin will land on "heads" or "tails". Therefore the odds offered about a "head" being tossed should be 1/1 (or Even money) in a perfect no-margin market

2. Rolling a fair dice - the odds of a dice landing on a "6" are 16.67% as there is an equal probability that the dice will show 1,2,3,4,5, or 6. Therefore the odds offered about a "6" being thrown should be 5/1 in a perfect no-margin market

Value Betting is about finding opportunities where the odds being offered about an outcome don't properly reflect the actual probabilities of that outcome actually occurring

So in the coin example, suppose someone offered you 5/4 about Heads. This is a Value Betting opportunity as you are getting better odds than the true odds of 1/1 about a Head coming up. If you could repeat this bet multiple times, in the long run you will finish in profit. This is because in the long run and after several hundreds and thousands of tosses, the number of Heads and Tails thrown will always converge towards 50% each

If you win €5 for every Head and lose €4 for every Tail, as the number of Heads and Tails converge to 50% you will show a profit of approx 12.5% on your stakes (roughly €1 profit for every €8 staked)

With the dice example, again if you could find someone offering better than 5/1 about any of the 6 numbers coming up, this is a Value Betting opportunity

That's the basic theory anyway

DB74

In the Brazil vs Japan match, the current odds are as follows:

Brazil - 3/10 (76.92%)
Draw - 19/4 (17.39%)
Japan - 11/1 (8.33%)

The total probabilities add up to 102.64%. This additional 2.64% represents the bookmakers margin, usually referred to as the overround. If the odds are correct and punters bet the outcomes in the percentages that the bookmaker expects, he stands to make a profit of about 2.64% on the match.

A Value Bet where would be if you think Brazil have a better than 76.92% chance of winning the match then you should bet them to win. If you think that Japan have a better than 8.33% chance of winning then you should bet on Japan and if you think that there is a better than 17.39% that the match will end in a Draw, then you should bet the Draw

The theory is the easy bit - the difficult bit is knowing when the odds are in your favour

akthung

@DB74: Thanks! Great explanation, man. So basically, the value bet is on a team which the bookies underestimates to win and offers odds at a profitable price.

Say in our Brazil vs Japan example, if bookies think Japan only have 17.39% chance of draw and therefore offers it at 19/4 -- yet if i think Japan can manage to repeat their Confederations Cup draw last 2005, i should put more stock on this bet. Right? Of course, i'm thinking otherwise.

I think in general value betting is stupid. You bet on an outcome such as the Brazil v Japan game because lets say you value the draw as having 25% chance yet odds being 5/1. Meaning you have value. When often the original value was taken out of the best bet from smarter and sharper punters, unless you're quicker than the better punters often the value turns out to be on the wrong side of the bet.

akthung

Deleted User wrote: »

I think in general value betting is stupid. You bet on an outcome such as the Brazil v Japan game because lets say you value the draw as having 25% chance yet odds being 5/1. Meaning you have value. When often the original value was taken out of the best bet from smarter and sharper punters, unless you're quicker than the better punters often the value turns out to be on the wrong side of the bet.

Seems related to your explanation here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056953428. So are you saying that the only way to avail of the value bet is to place it before the bookies move the betting lines, which is after these so-called 'smart punters' place theirs? Will appreciate any further explanation

Austria!

Deleted User wrote: »

I think in general value betting is stupid. You bet on an outcome such as the Brazil v Japan game because lets say you value the draw as having 25% chance yet odds being 5/1. Meaning you have value. When often the original value was taken out of the best bet from smarter and sharper punters, unless you're quicker than the better punters often the value turns out to be on the wrong side of the bet.

Being wrong about where the value is is stupid, but value betting is what you HAVE to do to win money long term. You might not understand what value betting is, because it's incomprehensible to me for someone to say value betting is stupid.

akthung

Austria! wrote: »

Being wrong about where the value is is stupid, but value betting is what you HAVE to do to win money long term. You might not understand what value betting is, because it's incomprehensible to me for someone to say value betting is stupid.

I guess that paddy91 means is that it's hard for average punters to find great value as quicker and more experienced ones take out the values when bookies start opening the betting lines. Though I think if you keep doing the right thing, you'll still win money in the long term.

akthung

akthung wrote: »

Seems related to your explanation here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056953428. So are you saying that the only way to avail of the value bet is to place it before the bookies move the betting lines, which is after these so-called 'smart punters' place theirs? Will appreciate any further explanation

Well most smart bettors so to say bet on asian books, or the larger books such as pinnacle, while value remains on Euro Books, meaning the average punter can still get on value bets, but more often than not lately the best odds are all in play, while you can research and find where there is value its often not available at the right price. For example, there was a game in the Argentinian Cup a while back where a side opened at 1.80+ pre game, were you not to take it early, you lose the value, as the game opened aat 1.40 in most places.

Also, I meant, to solely bet on perceived value is wrong, not that finding real value is wrong. I thought I made myself clear in my example, sorry if I did not.

akthung

Deleted User wrote: »

Well most smart bettors so to say bet on asian books, or the larger books such as pinnacle, while value remains on Euro Books, meaning the average punter can still get on value bets, but more often than not lately the best odds are all in play, while you can research and find where there is value its often not available at the right price. For example, there was a game in the Argentinian Cup a while back where a side opened at 1.80+ pre game, were you not to take it early, you lose the value, as the game opened at 1.40 in most places.

Also, I meant, to solely bet on perceived value is wrong, not that finding real value is wrong. I thought I made myself clear in my example, sorry if I did not.

Can you recommend the best "in play" betting site where we find the best value or best odds?

Well, generally its the slower ones, or the more european books, if you follow the money bet on asian bookies, or even on 365, you can get value on williamhill, bwin or paddypower etc. As their odds are far less dynamic.

akthung

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, generally its the slower ones, or the more european books, if you follow the money bet on asian bookies, or even on 365, you can get value on williamhill, bwin or paddypower etc. As their odds are far less dynamic.

Alright thanks. As a beginner I haven't really paid much attention to value betting, I only cared which team will win. LOL! So far, I've stayed away from Williamhill as their interface gives me headache. I might give it a second look. I prefer PaddyPower and 365 for their comprehensiveness, as well as SBOBET (which you mentioned in the other thread as often having the best odds) on the Asian bookies department.