'Market has gone mad in Dublin' Any truth?

Duggys Housemate

More anecdotes.

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

More anecdotes.

The numbers above aren't anecdotes, they're from daft, the amount of people where I work and in similar companies, earning over 100k isn't an anecdote.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

The numbers above aren't anecdotes, they're from daft, the amount of people where I work and in similar companies, earning over 100k isn't an anecdote.

Yes it is.

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Yes it is.

Ok Duggy, fine, but trust me on this there are people in Dublin earning that and far and above it. I know I've had to hire them.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Ok Duggy, fine, but trust me on this there are people in Dublin earning that and far and above it. I know I've had to hire them.

Yes, about 5%. Or less. And falling. Thats a stat, your hiring stories are anecdotes.

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Yes, about 5%. Or less. And falling. Thats a stat, your hiring stories are anecdotes.

And yet house prices in these areas continue to rise.......

LowKeyReturn

The Spider - while I'm not going to agree or disagree with your assertions about growing up with the right sort I will give you a tip from another non-local to another. I have some experience of the areas you've listed above and a few are not as safe as you imagine. Dun Laoghaire in particular has it's moments.

Dont be at yourself

The Spider wrote: »

And yet house prices in these areas continue to rise.......

Do they?

http://collapso.regime.ie/php/price_changes.php?county=Dublin&region=South+Dublin&listing=Active

72 price changes in Daft on South Dublin properties in May. 63 asking price reductions, and only 8 rises. Does that suggest that sale prices are rising?

The Spider

LowKeyReturn wrote: »

The Spider - while I'm not going to agree or disagree with your assertions about growing up with the right sort I will give you a tip from another non-local to another. I have some experience of the areas you've listed above and a few are not as safe as you imagine. Dun Laoghaire in particular has it's moments.

Yeah I do agree with that, I was in two minds about including it, but I did say some were safer than others.

The Spider

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Do they?

http://collapso.regime.ie/php/price_changes.php?county=Dublin&region=South+Dublin&listing=Active

72 price changes in Daft on South Dublin properties in May. 63 asking price reductions, and only 8 rises. Does that suggest that sale prices are rising?

Now filter it out to the above areas, and a price drop may be used to start a bidding war. Oh and 3 bed houses and above.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Now filter it out to the above areas, and a price drop may be used to start a bidding war. Oh and 3 bed houses and above.

Are we going to do that or are you?

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Are we going to do that or are you?

Well I would assume you would seeing as you posted a link, with general southside drops, which doesn't address my point about the areas I considered safe and certainly didn't address the point about 3 bed and above houses, we all know where we are with apartments.

I have no axe to grind I'm not from any of those areas nor do I live in them.

Dont be at yourself

The Spider wrote: »

Now filter it out to the above areas, and a price drop may be used to start a bidding war. Oh and 3 bed houses and above.

Here's a start:

27 properties in those areas with price changes. 24 drops, 3 rises -- including one obvious aberration of a 150k rise on a 2bed apartment in Terenure.

Despite that aberration, the average price drop for May across those 27 properties is just over €20k. All looking to start a price war, or just actually falling towards their true value?

The Spider

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Here's a start:

27 properties in those areas with price changes. 24 drops, 3 rises -- including one obvious aberration of a 150k rise on a 2bed apartment in Terenure.

Despite that aberration, the average price drop for May across those 27 properties is just over €20k. All looking to start a price war, or just actually falling towards their true value?

My own inclination is that it's trying to get people in the door, we have the example of goatstown in this thread.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Well I would assume you would seeing as you posted a link, with general southside drops, which doesn't address my point about the areas I considered safe and certainly didn't address the point about 3 bed and above houses, we all know where we are with apartments.

I have no axe to grind I'm not from any of those areas nor do I live in them.

I didn't post the link. You posted the question - what about the areas I listed - presumably without checking that link. Since you pretty much listed the entire south side in your original list you couldn't really expect rises there given the overall fall. I picked the first on your list ( Sandymount) and went back to the start of the year

39 Adair, Sandymount Avenue, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -9.4
12 Radcliffe Hall, St Johns Road, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -9
12 Derrynane Gardens, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -5.6
3 Herbert Court, Sandymount Avenue, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -4.1
3 Herbert Court, Sandymount Avenue, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City 12.4
17 Bath Ave, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -11.1
25 Richelieu Park, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -3.6
37 Derrynane Gardens, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City -9.2
2 Lansdowne Hall, Tritonville Road, Sandymount, Dublin 4, South Dublin City 7.5

only 2 rises in Sandymount.

jmayo

D3PO wrote: »

Im sorry but this is the biggest heap of sh*t ive ever heard.

Firstly I doubt your even in contact with 15 people in your year so have no basis to make that comment.

Secondly of the 23 people I know well enough to know what they are earning that went to Terenure College only 7 of them are earning over 60k. A far cry from the figures you magically claim.

Obviously you aren't hanging out ith the right crowd.

The Spider wrote: »

The other side of it is when I send kids to school, I want them to meet the right people for later in life, believe me I know how valuable the contacts you make when you're younger can be, I don't want them mixing with lads or girls who are from dodgy families or on the wrong track.

That really leaves me with one option and that's the southside.

Sandymount 17
Sandycove 6
Blackrock 32
Booterstown 6
Cabinteely 10
Ranelagh 18
Rathfarnham 44
Dalkey 14
Carrickmines 11
Churchtown 5
Clonskeagh 12
Donnybrook 7
Dunlaoighre 18
Dundrum 20
Rathgar 13
Rathmines 17
Goatstown 8
Killiney 11
Kilmacud 1
Leopardstown 10
Milltown 2
Stillorgan 11
Templeogue 17
Monkstown 11
Terenure 22

The above is a list of areas that I would consider safe, some more so than others, I've trawled daft and searched for minimum 3 bed houses the above numbers are the availability, so the total is 343, that really isn't that much.

There won't be a raft of repos in these areas the people that live there can afford to, except in rare circumstances, so prices will continue to rise.

Like a lot of what you post, you make wide sweeping statements without much backup or it appears experience.

There are pockets in a hell of a lot of the areas you have listed above which wouldn't include your beloved rugby heads and non dodgy types.
As other poster said do you even know Dun Laoghaire at all ?

I would say there is nowhere in Dublin that is not within a couple of miles at the very least of some very dodgy pockets.
And that includes Foxrock, Dalkey, Killiney, etc.

And then to make you look even worse you claim there would be no repos in those areas, probably I bet because you assume all those areas are just owner occupiers who are rich enough to hang onto their property.

Have you ever noticed the amount of rentals in places like Rathmines, Dun Laoghaire, Dundrum, Carrickmines, Ranelagh, Sandymount and even parts of Blackrock around the village ?
Even discounting the rentals that may a lot of owners in trouble because a lot of people bought in those areas at vastly over inflated prices, probably because they had the same mindset as yourself.

LowKeyReturn wrote: »

The Spider - while I'm not going to agree or disagree with your assertions about growing up with the right sort I will give you a tip from another non-local to another. I have some experience of the areas you've listed above and a few are not as safe as you imagine. Dun Laoghaire in particular has it's moments.

Forget it the poster makes these wide sweeping statements without it appears much logic to back it up.

listermint

The Spider wrote: »

I am fairly bullish about property at the moment, as I do think the bottom was last year, but some of the prices are a bit crazy in SCD but I don't see it changing to be honest, we looked there last year and decided even then that there wasn't real value to be had, so we made the decision to move outside and are very happy with that decision, especially with what we got for the money.

Anyway I'm not from Dublin either is the missus, but in my experience and especially with kids, there are certain areas in Dublin that I would live and they're all on the southside, for the simple reason that they're safe, and the only time you see lads in tracksuits is when they're off to play a rugby match.

The other side of it is when I send kids to school, I want them to meet the right people for later in life, believe me I know how valuable the contacts you make when you're younger can be, I don't want them mixing with lads or girls who are from dodgy families or on the wrong track.

That really leaves me with one option and that's the southside.

Sandymount 17
Sandycove 6
Blackrock 32
Booterstown 6
Cabinteely 10
Ranelagh 18
Rathfarnham 44
Dalkey 14
Carrickmines 11
Churchtown 5
Clonskeagh 12
Donnybrook 7
Dunlaoighre 18
Dundrum 20
Rathgar 13
Rathmines 17
Goatstown 8
Killiney 11
Kilmacud 1
Leopardstown 10
Milltown 2
Stillorgan 11
Templeogue 17
Monkstown 11
Terenure 22

The above is a list of areas that I would consider safe, some more so than others, I've trawled daft and searched for minimum 3 bed houses the above numbers are the availability, so the total is 343, that really isn't that much.

Supply won't increase in these areas, how can it? So you basically have anyone who is earning a decent living in Dublin more than likely chasing these areas, and there's way more than 343 people in the company where I work easily earning over 100k.

There won't be a raft of repos in these areas the people that live there can afford to, except in rare circumstances, so prices will continue to rise.

People with families aren't necessarily looking to live close to the city centre, they're more than likely not going out that much maybe a couple of times a month, if even, more than likely the local pub, than going into town and if they do, they can probably spring for a taxi.

Like I say I'm in commuterville but I certainly understand the appeal of the above areas, (although some are quite boring Stillorgan I'm looking at you).

If you can't buy in those areas (I've probably missed a couple in the list) there are alternatives outside, but will require a drive to work, but if a short commute is your motivation then you will have to look at other areas within Dublin.

Oh forgot to add, that there's a lot of people out there who've got cash, from being in sharesave schemes in work, or being granted shares which allow them to have far larger deposits then they would have if the just saved their cash.

While i have no direct comment on your 'opinions' in relation to the areas listed. I would prefer my children to grow up well rounded and with a positive outlook and approachable in life. Rather than surrounding them with faux supposedly 'networked' children.

Frankly your ascertains that your children will do well financially in life based on who there mates are come across as quite sad. I have plenty of time for thinkers and doers rather than latchers on.Which from your post it appears you hope they compete in the 'it' crowd.

Anyway good luck to you on shaping their destiny.

LowKeyReturn

jmayo wrote: »

Forget it the poster makes these wide sweeping statements without it appears much logic to back it up.

A trait to which I can relate to be fair :pac:

The Spider

listermint wrote: »

While i have no direct comment on your 'opinions' in relation to the areas listed. I would prefer my children to grow up well rounded and with a positive outlook and approachable in life. Rather than surrounding them with faux supposedly 'networked' children.

Frankly your ascertains that your children will do well financially in life based on who there mates are come across as quite sad. I have plenty of time for thinkers and doers rather than latchers on.Which from your post it appears you hope they compete in the 'it' crowd.

Anyway good luck to you on shaping their destiny.

That's fine but I don't think there's anything wrong with wanting to give your kids the best start in life, that's why those fee paying schools do quite well.

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

Obviously you aren't hanging out ith the right crowd.



Like a lot of what you post, you make wide sweeping statements without much backup or it appears experience.

There are pockets in a hell of a lot of the areas you have listed above which wouldn't include your beloved rugby heads and non dodgy types.
As other poster said do you even know Dun Laoghaire at all ?

And then to make you look even worse you claim there would be no repos in those areas, probably I bet because you assume all those areas are just owner occupiers who are rich enough to hang onto their property.

Have you ever noticed the amount of rentals in places like Rathmines, Dun Laoghaire, Dundrum, Carrickmines, Ranelagh, Sandymount and even parts of Blackrock around the village ?
Even discounting the rentals that may a lot of owners in trouble because a lot of people bought in those areas at vastly over inflated prices, probably because they had the same mindset as yourself.



Forget it the poster makes these wide sweeping statements without it appears much logic to back it up.

Now see the part where I said I don't live in those areas and am in fact in commuterville, I listed why I think those areas are attractive to a buyer, (I corrected myself on Dun Laoighre, but it's still better than Rialto) regardless of whether you think it's snobbery or not, yes there are areas within that section that are a bit dodgy see where I said some were safer than others?

But their nowhere near as bad as some other areas in Dublin.

Look I don't live there, and I won't live there, I gave you reasons as to why people want to live there.

As for the rugby that referance was used because that's what people play around there, more of a hurling man myself.

Shedite27

I reckon the people that are earning over 100k are too busy at work at 3pm on a Thursday afternoon to be posting here.

Get back to work everyone!

Bigcheeze

The North/South mental block is funny. Desirability of places to live in Dublin seems to move from West to East, more so than North to South. i.e. The coastal suburbs north and south are generally the most sought after.

The Spider

Bigcheeze wrote: »

The North/South mental block is funny. Desirability of places to live in Dublin seems to move from West to East, more so than North to South. i.e. The coastal suburbs north and south are generally the most sought after.

Agree with this, lived in Clontarf loved it, however in all the time I lived in Dublin it was also the one place that my car got broken into.

Also to get to Clontarf you have to go through some dodgy areas, same can't be said of heading to Ranelagh.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Now filter it out to the above areas, and a price drop may be used to start a bidding war. Oh and 3 bed houses and above.

Sorta strange interpretation on whats going on. Back in the bubble days there were practically no price drops, all rises and bidding wars were constant.

Now we have price drops as a constant feature. Thing is these continuous price drops on individual properties are occurring weeks after initial posting of the advert, that means the interest was not forthcoming from buyers. Check the Property Bee for this evidence in the areas(and 3bed+ houses) you listed.

The Spider

gurramok wrote: »

Sorta strange interpretation on whats going on. Back in the bubble days there were practically no price drops, all rises and bidding wars were constant.

Now we have price drops as a constant feature. Thing is these continuous price drops on individual properties are occurring weeks after initial posting of the advert, that means the interest was not forthcoming from buyers. Check the Property Bee for this evidence in the areas(and 3bed+ houses) you listed.

Not disagreeing, but we also have people posting about bidding wars, I don't know I haven't been involved in one personally, I don't think this is the same as the bubble with prices constantly rising, but there's definitely movement happening, I looked at a 4 bed house in Cabinteely last year advertised at 390, the estate agent said we could have it for 350, we didn't buy it.

I think buyers are watching to see a price they consider value, then alot show up and consequently bid up the price of the house, again only happening in certain areas.

gaius c

Bigcheeze wrote: »

The North/South mental block is funny. Desirability of places to live in Dublin seems to move from West to East, more so than North to South. i.e. The coastal suburbs north and south are generally the most sought after.

Very true and about the only exception to that rule is Castleknock.

This conversation has gone a bit silly really. There's nothing in the PPR data to support widespread price rises in Dublin. Some properties appear to be going for higher than expected. Some are going for less. Overall, Dublin is only performing marginally higher than the rest of the country. The bulls' "evidence" centres around asking price rises and anecdotal stories about numbers at viewings.

gaius c

Also from the news today:

"The numbers of under 35s at work continued to fall in the first quarter of 2013, a trend that has been on-going since 2007. There were just under 650,000 under 35s in employment in the January-March period, down from 1 million in 2007.”

That's a lot of potential FTB's out the gap.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

I think buyers are watching to see a price they consider value, then alot show up and consequently bid up the price of the house, again only happening in certain areas.

The properties must be "palaces"(sarcastic description ), the cream of the crop to attract so many viewings with bidding going on. They tick all the boxes.

ted1

gaius c wrote: »

Also from the news today:

That's a lot of potential FTB's out the gap.

This thread is about Dublin, I would reckon that the number in Dublin won't have fallen as much. Any of you CSO fans got the figures?

Cuddlesworth

ted1 wrote: »

I Lived in terenure, and went to Terenure college. now living out in Killiney.

There would be little people who were in my year earning less then 60K.

I'd love to know what age group. I'm from the area, left school 10 years ago. At a rough guess I would place unemployment in my age group at about 30%, with a small number earning more then 30k based on their experience and job types. Far too many still living at home.

Facebook is a cruel thing at times.

I can also tell you, that on my parents road of 50 houses there are 6 I know of that have not paid their mortgages in over a year and most likely never will be able to pay during the rest of their working lives. I'd love to see a more geographic breakdown of arrears before I would consider buying now.


Also, I think a few of you are forgetting where all the 2000 to 2008 money went and is. It didn't disappear. It was transferred to older generations over a very brief 15 year period. You might think that nobody could afford a 500k house on 50k a year. But when you bought a house in 95 for 40k that's now still worth 250-300k, your not getting a 500k mortgage when you move. There are plenty of medium income workers in houses that are currently worth multiples of what they purchased them for.