'Market has gone mad in Dublin' Any truth?

The Spider

desertcircus wrote: »

Where is this evidence of Dublin being so madly different? The housing market in Dublin comprises houses that will be either sold or rented to people, most of whom are not in the ABC bracket. In fact, if the market is so choked that the only real movement is among the top 5% of earners, that should be setting off alarm bells about the probability of a second major crash. The housing market in Dublin is almost completely seized up; the number of transactions is somewhere under 10% of the number at the peak, and the majority of the city's population remains priced out. When sales numbers pick up off the floor (there were two thousand mortgages approved in the whole country in the first quarter of this year), then we can talk about a recovery.

Take a look here wall street journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130528-703421.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

New york times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/30/greathomesanddestinations/real-estate-in-ireland.html?_r=0

Finfacts:

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026052.shtml

Indo:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-tycoons-back-buying-property-but-only-in-the-capital-29259799.html

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/purchasing-now-proving-as-cheap-as-renting-29309826.html

Seems to be a lot of talk about recovery, look I bought outside I commute I'm happy with that I have an acre and a half of a garden, and I'm 45 minutes drive to work, it took me longer from Santry to the southside.

Take a look at the introductions thread on the property pin going back to 2006 and when people then thought we'd see a recovery.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2652

All I say is just be careful it doesn't slip past you on the way back up, especially if you've been watching the market for years and deciding on when you should make your move.

ted1

gaius c wrote: »

Do you?
You're the one making outlandish claims so the onus is on you to back them up, not us.

Oh and while we're at it, if your trolling is so weak that even a nice forum like boards is laughing at you, you probably need to rethink your strategy.

I'm making no outlandish claims, and I stand by everything I say

jmayo

desertcircus wrote: »

Where is this evidence of Dublin being so madly different? The housing market in Dublin comprises houses that will be either sold or rented to people, most of whom are not in the ABC bracket. In fact, if the market is so choked that the only real movement is among the top 5% of earners, that should be setting off alarm bells about the probability of a second major crash. The housing market in Dublin is almost completely seized up; the number of transactions is somewhere under 10% of the number at the peak, and the majority of the city's population remains priced out. When sales numbers pick up off the floor (there were two thousand mortgages approved in the whole country in the first quarter of this year), then we can talk about a recovery.

This is the most important point.
A sane definition of a functioning property market is that there is a healthy number of transactions and that is the type of recovery we need.

Instead some people seem to think a recovery shoudl be prices going back to la la land figures.

And we will nevr have the number of transactions going back to somewhat normal, as in the 90s before the boom/bubble, until prices have reached bottom, lending is more readily available and normal workers both have the money and confidence to reenter the market.

The Spider wrote: »

Take a look here wall street journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130528-703421.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

New york times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/30/greathomesanddestinations/real-estate-in-ireland.html?_r=0

Finfacts:

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026052.shtml

Indo:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-tycoons-back-buying-property-but-only-in-the-capital-29259799.html

http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/property-homes/purchasing-now-proving-as-cheap-as-renting-29309826.html

Seems to be a lot of talk about recovery, look I bought outside I commute I'm happy with that I have an acre and a half of a garden, and I'm 45 minutes drive to work, it took me longer from Santry to the southside.

Take a look at the introductions thread on the property pin going back to 2006 and when people then thought we'd see a recovery.

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2652

All I say is just be careful it doesn't slip past you on the way back up, especially if you've been watching the market for years and deciding on when you should make your move.

Using the Irish independent as a source on property matters is questionable.

After all how many times have they now called bottom ?

lima

The Spider wrote: »

All I say is just be careful it doesn't slip past you on the way back up, especially if you've been watching the market for years and deciding on when you should make your move.

They way I see it is that by waiting it is worth risking prices going up 15-20%, because if I buy now and it swings the other way then I'd be underwater

The Spider

jmayo wrote: »

This is the most important point.
A sane definition of a functioning property market is that there is a healthy number of transactions and that is the type of recovery we need.

Instead some people seem to think a recovery shoudl be prices going back to la la land figures.

And we will nevr have the number of transactions going back to somewhat normal, as in the 90s before the boom/bubble, until prices have reached bottom, lending is more readily available and normal workers both have the money and confidence to reenter the market.



Using the Irish independent as a source on property matters is questionable.

After all how many times have they now called bottom ?

Good god I knew someone was going to point to the indo, and conveniantly ignore the New York Times and Wall Street Journal and Finfacts which is used quite a bit as an unbiased source.

The Spider

lima wrote: »

They way I see it is that by waiting it is worth risking prices going up 15-20%, because if I buy now and it swings the other way then I'd be underwater

Can't argue there, but be careful.

desertcircus

That Finfacts article is a glorified press release that glosses over the 75% drop in mortgage applications in Q1 2013 without any mention of the effect of the end of mortgage interest relief and uses a 1.4% rise in prices (the first in over five years, and well within the range of being a statistical quirk) as the basis for claiming a recovery has started. Meanwhile, we had an average of less than a thousand mortgages a month in the first three months of this year and prices are still out of reach for huge chunks of the population, but that gets ignored.

cookie1977

We still have the problem that too many purchases are cash purchases and not mortgage loan purchases. This is not the sign of a normal functioning market.

gaius c

ted1 wrote: »

I'm making no outlandish claims, and I stand by everything I say

If you stand by it, you can find a credible citation for your claims?
I'm sure somebody with your educational pedigree will know what a citation is.

ted1

desertcircus wrote: »

In fact, if the market is so choked that the only real movement is among the top 5% of earners,

once again with your 5%, which is a genreal figure encompassing the whole country from. Please present relevant figures for those actually within the Dublin market. which is whay this thread is about.

Qualitymark

Where's the truth?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-lending-slumps-in-q1-1.1400198
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-approvals-rise-23-in-april-1.1407792

Duggys Housemate

ted1 wrote: »

What 5% are you talking about, aim to be an underachiever if you want to be.
But I'm talking to a fellow alumni here who would have a similar background to my peers and would be well capable of being in a peer group who demand wages of 70k+ .

How was your 5% basis found? Does it include people with no junior cert? Does it include those with no leaving cert? Those with no skills and an inability to work. Lets see what the percentage raises to when you just include the ABC demographic. After all these are the ones who are buying and selling houses, we all know stats are skewed and only relevant when applied correctly.
So if your going to come back with stats and figures please make them relevant and in context with the conversation.

5% is 5%. Jesus wept. "What 5%?"

desertcircus

ted1 wrote: »

once again with your 5%, which is a genreal figure encompassing the whole country from. Please present relevant figures for those actually within the Dublin market. which is whay this thread is about.

Well, if you have concrete data showing Dublin to be significantly different to the rest of the country, I'm all ears. Bear in mind, though, it's mathematically impossible for the relevant stat for Dublin to be much beyond 15%, and pretty unlikely to clear 10%.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Can't argue there, but be careful.

There isn't a hope of prices going up 20%.

We already posted stats for South Dublin, < 10% of prices up this year, and 90% down. This is before repossessions, and "debt write off" which will in many cases ( BTL, people with two properties) will probably force a sale of any second owned house to cover the reduced debt. Or the house goes to the banks to sell.

Thats all ahead, as public sector salaries decrease, real interest rates for new mortgages increase, and emigration continues at the very age bracket which would normally buy, or head towards buying. Major head winds.

Is property undervalued? Historically, probably. But just as markets can overshoot, they can undershoot.

( The next tail wind is interest rate increases, which won't effect new mortgages so much as the banks have leeway there, but will cause tracker owners to stop paying mortgages, and apply for the debt write off. So more repossessions).

The Spider

Qualitymark wrote: »

Where's the truth?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-lending-slumps-in-q1-1.1400198
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-approvals-rise-23-in-april-1.1407792

Mixed messages, but there is no doubt something is happening, think back to the 90's around 95 or early 96, that's when property prices started to rise, and there certainly wasn't a sudden declaration that prices will now go nuts.

There was a gradual increase as technology companies began to not so much take off but shall we say increase employment. There were rises year on year, things only went completely nuts around 2003-2004.

I remember guys leaving jobs in IT to work as labourers because the money was so good.

Anyway I do get the distinct feeling that we're probably around 1995-1996 sentiment wise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22718123

Employment is on the way up, so I suppose use your own judgement either way.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Mixed messages, but there is no doubt something is happening, think back to the 90's around 95 or early 96, that's when property prices started to rise, and there certainly wasn't a sudden declaration that prices will now go nuts.

There was a gradual increase as technology companies began to not so much take off but shall we say increase employment. There were rises year on year, things only went completely nuts around 2003-2004.

I remember guys leaving jobs in IT to work as labourers because the money was so good.

Anyway I do get the distinct feeling that we're probably around 1995-1996 sentiment wise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22718123

Employment is on the way up, so I suppose use your own judgement either way.

We are similar to about 1985, as emigration is continuing not reversing. The growth in the 90's was 5-10% ( 1992 was 10%). That was the boom before the bubble. And interest rates were falling, and private debt was low.

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

We are similar to about 1985, as emigration is continuing not reversing. The growth in the 90's was 5-10% ( 1992 was 10%). That was the boom before the bubble. And interest rates were falling, and private debt was low.

Don't think I agree with that, especially in Dublin maybe I move in different circles. Granted if you go down to Waterford you'll have a whole different outlook than you would in Dublin.

Oh and just on the Northside versus Southside, portmarnock we all agree is a nice area of the Northside, and here's what happens when the sun comes out.

I really doubt this would happen on the Southside.

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/05/31/like-the-opening-scene-in-saving-private-ryan/?fb_action_ids=10151404525976046&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map={%2210151404525976046%22%3A565760426809097}&action_type_map={%2210151404525976046%22%3A%22og.likes%22}&action_ref_map=[]

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Don't think I agree with that, especially in Dublin maybe I move in different circles. Granted if you go down to Waterford you'll have a whole different outlook than you would in Dublin.

This whole "move in different circles" is tiresome. The facts matter not your anecdotes. My salary is 70k+ in Dublin but that doesn't mean that the market won't fall. It will fall, as it is continuing to fall, because of the headwinds I mentioned, it won't not fall because of the "circles" you know. Thats all anecdotes.

Only IT is vaguely booming in the IRish economy, and only for people way past graduate level, and IT workers on 70K don't tend to marry other IT workers, because, there aren't too many female IT workers.

None of this explains the supposed amount of 140K families around the south side.

Not that it matters. Prices are falling, and repossessions haven't started. So there is no hope of any price increases in the future. Another 20% drop I think.

Duggys Housemate

The Spider wrote: »

Don't think I agree with that, especially in Dublin maybe I move in different circles. Granted if you go down to Waterford you'll have a whole different outlook than you would in Dublin.

Oh and just on the Northside versus Southside, portmarnock we all agree is a nice area of the Northside, and here's what happens when the sun comes out.

I really doubt this would happen on the Southside.

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/05/31/like-the-opening-scene-in-saving-private-ryan/?fb_action_ids=10151404525976046&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map={%2210151404525976046%22%3A565760426809097}&action_type_map={%2210151404525976046%22%3A%22og.likes%22}&action_ref_map=[]

It used to happen in Bray. Of course it could happen in the Southside, all it needs it for Killiney beach to be become popular.

( That said I love Soutside snobbery as I am looking to Clontarf etc.()

The Spider

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

It used to happen in Bray. Of course it could happen in the Southside, all it needs it for Killiney beach to be become popular.

( That said I love Soutside snobbery as I am looking to Clontarf etc.()

Bray is in Wicklow :cool:

Killiney's too far to travel from Darndale.

Ray Palmer

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

Only IT is vaguely booming in the IRish economy, and only for people way past graduate level, and IT workers on 70K don't tend to marry other IT workers, because, there aren't too many female IT workers.
.

I think people often miss the fat there are tons of females in IT they just don't tend to be developers. Testing, Project managers, BA etc... have a very high representation of woman. They are IT workers and they tend to be married to others in their field.

IT demand is really high at the moment too. Rates are nearly back to boom time levels. €400 a day is about now for non technical roles

strandroad

The Spider wrote: »

I really doubt this would happen on the Southside.

Happened in Sandycove last year big time, four people stabbed:
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/four-stabbed-in-fight-at-famous-forty-foot-bathing-spot-in-dublin-after-day-drinking-in-the-sun-26857257.html
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056651166

gaius c

Must be very disheartening for couples on €150k (in the top 5% of the entire country) that all they can afford is a house in somebody's backgarden in the outer subhurbs of Dublin.

Talk about living the dream.

listermint

The Spider wrote: »

Bray is in Wicklow :cool:

Killiney's too far to travel from Darndale.

rofl


I think you live in cloud cookoo land tbh. Killiney is on the dart line, portmarknock isnt exactly easy to get to from the city centre. all it takes is a clampdown in portmarknock for these edgits to find another beach on a travel line.

Cuddlesworth

The Spider wrote: »

Killiney's too far to travel from Darndale.

Its a 10-20 minute walk from Ballybrack, RathSalla, Loughlinstown or the delightful s*** hole that is Shanganagh Cliffs. I lived there, you wouldn't walk the beach in the dark and you had to be wary if it was sunny due to the angry drunks.

I grew up in Terenure, rented in Seafield court in Killiney for two years and now live on Sandford Road in Ranelagh. You seem to have a scewed perception of the southside in general. Yes there is money but there is also some serious angry pockets of social housing spread throughout.

gurramok

The Spider wrote: »

Employment is on the way up, so I suppose use your own judgement either way.

Full time employment has fallen, part-time employment has risen
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0530/453581-unemployment-rate-falls-in-first-quarter-cso/

RTE wrote:

However, the figures show there was a fall in full-time employment of 3,700 over the year, which was offset by a rise in part-time employment of 24,200.

Piriz

ted1 wrote: »

Your right not 95% but a good deal of people are, some are lazy , some simply don't aspire to better themselves, some don't realise that they can achieve more. I was talking to someone working in a shop the other day who aspired to be a shop manager , o asked them why not a area manager or even open there own, there answer was that they didn't think they could.

You sound like Bill Cullen

The Spider

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Its a 10-20 minute walk from Ballybrack, RathSalla, Loughlinstown or the delightful s*** hole that is Shanganagh Cliffs. I lived there, you wouldn't walk the beach in the dark and you had to be wary if it was sunny due to the angry drunks.

I grew up in Terenure, rented in Seafield court in Killiney for two years and now live on Sandford Road in Ranelagh. You seem to have a scewed perception of the southside in general. Yes there is money but there is also some serious angry pockets of social housing spread throughout.

Nah, tongue was in my cheek when I posted that link, I don't think it had anything to do with it being portmarnock, more to do with the sun being out and a lot of booze.

Yes there is social housing all through the southside, but there are specific areas that I listed look back through the thread. I lived in Dublin from 1995-2012, I still work here.

In that time I lived in Clonliffe Road, Ranelagh, Harolds Cross, Rathmines, Clontarf, Churchtown and Santry.

So I have a fair idea of the city and have been all over it. For instance I think the liberties is a fantastic genuine area and I do love it, however would I bring a family up there? Not a chance. Again I think Clontarf is one of the nicest areas in the country let alone Dublin, and we did look at buying there last year, but the value wasn't to be had, houses were smaller than southside equivelants.

A lot of SCD is boring, nothing much happens, but it's also pretty safe, and sorry if you don't like to hear it but I want a safe environment for my family first and foremost. (again like I say I've moved to commuterville so I wont ever be living on the Southside of Dublin.)

Victor

Knock off the Northside/Southside stuff.

Moderator

Qualitymark

I wonder are the councils refusing the houses and apartments that NAMA offers them because they fear that available council housing would stop property prices rising.

According to today's Herald, the councils only want single-occupancy flats, not family houses, which seems mad to me. Surely a lot of the people who need homes have families - and surely a lot of them would be reliable and good tenants?