'Market has gone mad in Dublin' Any truth?

jmayo

The Spider wrote: »

Mixed messages, but there is no doubt something is happening, think back to the 90's around 95 or early 96, that's when property prices started to rise, and there certainly wasn't a sudden declaration that prices will now go nuts.

There was a gradual increase as technology companies began to not so much take off but shall we say increase employment. There were rises year on year, things only went completely nuts around 2003-2004.

I remember guys leaving jobs in IT to work as labourers because the money was so good.

Anyway I do get the distinct feeling that we're probably around 1995-1996 sentiment wise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22718123

Employment is on the way up, so I suppose use your own judgement either way.

You are kidding, right ?
Please tell me you are kidding or do you seriously believe the guff you are coming out with ?

Ireland in the 90s was GROWING after the bad years of the 80s.
We had huge growth in technology related companies as effects of the likes of Microsoft, Dell, and Intel siting here in late to early 90s was beginning to come on stream and add to the economy.
There aren't going to be any Intels or Dells arriving in the next few years I would bet.
There was a huge global boom from mid 90s until 2000/2001 and we did well out of it.
Is there a global boom/bubble at the moment or can you see one coming down the tracks ?

Oh and we had a construction industry whereas now all of those manual workers are either on the dole or having to emigrate.

People were starting with clean slates and there wasn't huge amounts of personal debt.
Taxes were getting lower not higher.
Public sector was growing hugely from bertie's rule in 1997 and not going the other way as today.

Oh and get this little salient truth.
WE HAD OUR OWN SOLVENT INDIGENEOUS BANKS that could actually lend to prospective buyers.

Please note the importance of the word solvent.

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

This whole "move in different circles" is tiresome. The facts matter not your anecdotes. My salary is 70k+ in Dublin but that doesn't mean that the market won't fall. It will fall, as it is continuing to fall, because of the headwinds I mentioned, it won't not fall because of the "circles" you know. Thats all anecdotes.

Only IT is vaguely booming in the IRish economy, and only for people way past graduate level, and IT workers on 70K don't tend to marry other IT workers, because, there aren't too many female IT workers.

None of this explains the supposed amount of 140K families around the south side.

Not that it matters. Prices are falling, and repossessions haven't started. So there is no hope of any price increases in the future. Another 20% drop I think.

I think it is time to give up as we are beating our heads against a stone wall.

irishguy

gaius c wrote: »

Must be very disheartening for couples on €150k (in the top 5% of the entire country) that all they can afford is a house in somebody's backgarden in the outer subhurbs of Dublin.

Talk about living the dream.

But they could get a very nice house with a mortgage of X3 base, which is seen by international metrics as affordable. Also they should be more than able to save a large deposit. Allowing them to borrow even less or spend even more.

irishguy

Duggys Housemate wrote: »

This whole "move in different circles" is tiresome. The facts matter not your anecdotes. My salary is 70k+ in Dublin but that doesn't mean that the market won't fall. It will fall, as it is continuing to fall, because of the headwinds I mentioned, it won't not fall because of the "circles" you know. Thats all anecdotes.

Only IT is vaguely booming in the IRish economy, and only for people way past graduate level, and IT workers on 70K don't tend to marry other IT workers, because, there aren't too many female IT workers.

None of this explains the supposed amount of 140K families around the south side.

Not that it matters. Prices are falling, and repossessions haven't started. So there is no hope of any price increases in the future. Another 20% drop I think.

There are a few areas in Dublin doing well IT, international financial, accounting and pharmaceuticals. You would be surprised how many people in Dublin work in these areas which will drive up demand in some areas of Dublin.

Also you would be surprised how many IT people are married to accountants, out of a group of 10 friends recently there were 4 IT people with 4 accountants. The party's are crazy

MayBea

kennyb3 wrote: »

The issue is quite obviously supply - there were over 5,000 propertis for sale on daft.ie (dublin city) in early May 2012, there are only just under 3,400 on at present (32% lower).

Almost two years later the number of properties on daft is even lower for Dublin city: 3,091 at present.

I've yet to see anyone conclusively answer the supply question - where it will come from, when and in what numbers it will increase.

And this question remains rhetorical...

gaius c

It's January, i.e. post-xmas and properties only start coming on now for the new year. Wait till May of this year to do a fairer comparison and stop comparing apples with oranges.

jmayo

I know of a couple of properties, one rural and one in village, that were for sale and were taken off market before December.
I think some buyers reckon it is not worth trying to sell in winter or particularly around christmas.
Maybe they don't want hassel of viewings in winter ?

kennyb3

Thanks maybea, however you can see figures for this time last year here

Supply is up slightly on Jan 14 - hardly much to make a difference unless demand is dampened significantly compared to last year (which is highly likely but the degree of which is hard to know)

seamus

jmayo wrote: »

I know of a couple of properties, one rural and one in village, that were for sale and were taken off market before December.
I think some buyers reckon it is not worth trying to sell in winter or particularly around christmas.
Maybe they don't want hassel of viewings in winter ?

Yep. One couple I know had a lot of viewings and then realised that most of them were people coming for a nosey - village locals would approach them and say, "I went up to the viewing there last week, your house is lovely". So they didn't want to be wasting their time with that headache over winter and had the agent take it down in November and hold off till Spring.

MayBea

kennyb3 wrote: »

Thanks maybea, however you can see figures for this time last year here.

Supply is up slightly on Jan 14 - hardly much to make a difference unless demand is dampened significantly compared to last year (which is highly likely but the degree of which is hard to know)

Thanks, I can see it was significantly less a year ago (2,314 on daft on 23/01/14). As for demand - it's hard to say, I guess it it is highly localised in Dublin and certain areas are always in demand.

Barely Hedged

MayBea wrote: »

Thanks, I can see it was significantly less a year ago (2,314 on daft on 23/01/14). As for demand - it's hard to say, I guess it it is highly localised in Dublin and certain areas are always in demand.

Like most markets.

Quiet in December/January - people on holidays, Christmas and lag from slow period in December follows through to January.

Quiet in August - people go on holidays.

Eric Cartman

Qualitymark wrote: »

I wonder are the councils refusing the houses and apartments that NAMA offers them because they fear that available council housing would stop property prices rising.

According to today's Herald, the councils only want single-occupancy flats, not family houses, which seems mad to me. Surely a lot of the people who need homes have families - and surely a lot of them would be reliable and good tenants?

apartments are cheaper to maintain, and a lot of the housing list is single parents with 1-2 children or single unemployed people. The council don't want to give them larger properties than they need.