Summer 2013 Forecast Contest

M.T. Cranium

Note -- This summer contest is independent of the monthly "Boards forecast contest" series and anyone can enter.

Each year since about 2010, we've had winter and summer forecast contests, so many of you will already know the rules. Please read carefully and use the template at the end of this post to enter. This is not a contest that can be entered by the monthly contest form that we use separately. You have to enter with a post on this thread.

Here are the simplified rules and a guide to how the contest will be scored.

1. Predict the monthly IMT values for June, July and August. We calculate your summer average, you don't need to enter that. The long-term averages for those three months are 13.7, 15.2 and 15.3 C. IMT as most will know is short for "Irish Mean temperature" and is our preferred average for five representative stations, Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon, as reported by Met Eireann in their monthly summaries and monthly data sections. scores 5 for each month and 15 for the season.

2. Predict the monthly rainfall as percentage of normal, as reported by Met Eireann for eleven stations. These include the five above and also Malin Head, Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Ballyhaise and Belmullet. The averages are of course 100% of normal. The seasonal average will be calculated by us, so you don't need to enter that. scores 5 for each month and 15 for the season.

3. Predict the highest temperature of summer, and the date when it will occur. We don't require the location. Summer is defined as the rest of the calendar year but the contest will be validated in late September, scores will be adjusted if by any chance the maximum occurs later. As it has been rather chilly this spring it is very unlikely that we've already passed this value but if you think so, go with 20.0 "previous" and this will be the minimum acceptable entry. scores 10 for the max and 10 for the date.

4. Predict the average sunshine for the entire season (not monthly) as a percentage of normal. This value will be calculated from our monthly contests as reported in the Met Eireann monthly summaries, just a straight average of June, July and August. scores 10

5. Give the date of the heaviest calendar day rainfall anywhere in Ireland at an official reporting site from 1 June to 30 September and the amount in mm.
scores 5 for the amount and 5 for the date.

Scores will be based on rank order not absolute error, the details will be announced when the number of entrants is known.

---

Please use this template or something very similar, for one thing, by using it you will be sure you've entered everything. I will try to contact people with incomplete or apparently invalid entries.

JUNE IMT = xxx
JULY IMT = xxx
AUG IMT = xxx
MTC calc seasonal

JUNE PRC = xxx%
JULY PRC = xxx%
AUG PRC = xxx%
MTC calc seasonal

SEASONAL MAX = xxx on (day) of (any month to come) or 20.0 (previous date)

SUMMER SUNSHINE = xxx%

MAX RAINFALL = xxx.x mm on (day) of (month JJAS only)

______________________________________________________

I've decided not to have penalties for late entries, just an absolute deadline which will be end of Monday, 3 June (0300h 4 June). So no rush, you have a few days to consider the guidance and do some calculations.

The monthly boards contest thread will open on Monday 27th once I have the form details sorted out. You don't have to use the same forecasts in the two different contests.

dsmythy

I'm too eager for epic considerations

JUNE IMT = 13.1 C
JULY IMT = 15.7 C
AUG IMT = 15.2 C


JUNE PRC = 118%
JULY PRC = 78%
AUG PRC = 104%

SEASONAL MAX = 29.8 C on 22nd of July
SUMMER SUNSHINE = 95%

MAX RAINFALL = 57.9 mm on 5th of August

Bsal

JUNE IMT = 14.1
JULY IMT = 15.4
AUG IMT = 14.9

JUNE PRC = 97%
JULY PRC = 91%
AUG PRC = 110%


SEASONAL MAX = 25.1 on 13 July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 103%

MAX RAINFALL = 42.0 mm on 17 August

pauldry

JUNE IMT = 13.8
JULY IMT = 14.9
AUG IMT = 13.9

JUNE PRC = 99%
JULY PRC = 90%
AUG PRC = 121%


SEASONAL MAX = 24.9 on 24 july

SUMMER SUNSHINE. 93%

MAX RAINFALL = 59.0 mm on 31 August[/quote]

Strasser

JUNE IMT = 12.5
JULY IMT = 13.8
AUG IMT = 13.2
MTC calc seasonal

JUNE PRC = 120%
JULY PRC = 110%
AUG PRC = 105%


SEASONAL MAX = 25.9 on 30th of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 94%

MAX RAINFALL = 41.5 mm on 25th of June

Jpmarn

JUNE IMT = 14.1 C
JULY IMT = 17.8 C
AUG IMT = 16.5 C


JUNE PRC = 112%
JULY PRC = 55%
AUG PRC = 76%

SEASONAL MAX = 31.2C on 10th of July
SUMMER SUNSHINE = 132%

MAX RAINFALL = 46mm on 31st of August

John mac

JUNE IMT = 13.3
JULY IMT = 14.7
AUG IMT = 14.2


JUNE PRC = 101%
JULY PRC = 95%
AUG PRC = 100%


SEASONAL MAX = 26.9 on 20 of June

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 110%

MAX RAINFALL = 135mm on 19 of september

omicron

JUNE IMT = 13.0
JULY IMT = 17.0
AUG IMT = 16.0
MTC calc seasonal

JUNE PRC = 115%
JULY PRC = 85%
AUG PRC = 100%
MTC calc seasonal

SEASONAL MAX = 30.0 on 29th July.

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 110%

MAX RAINFALL = 50.0 mm on 20th September.

dasa29

JUNE IMT = 11
JULY IMT = 13
AUG IMT = 15

JUNE PRC = 90%
JULY PRC = 75%
AUG PRC = 75%


SEASONAL MAX = 27 on 13 of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 150%

MAX RAINFALL = 80mm on 17 of June:D

force eleven

JUNE IMT = 13.5
JULY IMT = 14.6
AUG IMT = 15.0


JUNE PRC = 105%
JULY PRC = 95%
AUG PRC = 120%


SEASONAL MAX = 26.2 10th July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 105%

MAX RAINFALL = 42 mm on 14th August

Harps

Might as well be a bit optimistic :cool:

JUNE IMT = 14.1
JULY IMT = 15.7
AUG IMT = 16.1

JUNE PRC = 85%
JULY PRC = 110%
AUG PRC = 70%


SEASONAL MAX = 31.1C on July 4th

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 110%

MAX RAINFALL = 49mm on 20th of July

sunflower3

JUNE IMT = 14.3
JULY IMT = 15.1
AUG IMT = 14.6


JUNE PRC = 94%
JULY PRC = 102%
AUG PRC = 96%


SEASONAL MAX = 27.1 29th July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 108%

MAX RAINFALL = 48 mm on 18th August

Rikand

JUNE IMT = 14.0
JULY IMT = 15.8
AUG IMT = 16.0


JUNE PRC = 70%
JULY PRC = 80%
AUG PRC = 85%


SEASONAL MAX = 28.8 on 1st of August 2013

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 130%

MAX RAINFALL = 130.4 on 31st of August

DOCARCH

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.6
AUG IMT = 15.2

JUNE PRC = 90%
JULY PRC = 82%
AUG PRC = 97%

SEASONAL MAX = 30.2c on July 21st

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 108%

MAX RAINFALL = 56mm on August 20th

westmidlands

JUNE IMT = 14.7
JULY IMT = 15.3
AUG IMT = 14.9

JUNE PRC = 78%
JULY PRC = 94%
AUG PRC = 103%

SEASONAL MAX = 29.0C on June 25th

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 115%

MAX RAINFALL = 52mm on August 15th

Joe Public

JUNE IMT = 14.9
JULY IMT = 15.9
AUG IMT = 15.9

JUNE PRC = 69%
JULY PRC = 89%
AUG PRC = 99%


SEASONAL MAX = 26.9 on 31st July.

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 119%

MAX RAINFALL = 39.0 mm on 1st July

M.T. Cranium

Keep in mind the deadline for entries is end of Monday or 0300h Tuesday 4th June.

Here's my shot in the dark.

JUNE IMT = 15.2
JULY IMT = 16.3
AUG IMT = 16.1
MTC calc seasonal (15.9)

JUNE PRC = 78%
JULY PRC = 75%
AUG PRC = 90%
MTC calc seasonal (81%)

SEASONAL MAX = 29.2 on 28 of June

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 125%

MAX RAINFALL = 35.7 mm on 28 of September

nilhg

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.2
AUG IMT = 15.2

JUNE PRC = 87%
JULY PRC = 99%
AUG PRC = 97%


SEASONAL MAX = 28.1 on 06 July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 108%

MAX RAINFALL = 28.0 mm on 06 August

talkabout

JUNE IMT = 14.9
JULY IMT = 15.5
AUG IMT = 15.8

JUNE PRC = 85%
JULY PRC = 90%
AUG PRC = 95%


SEASONAL MAX = 28.9 on August 7th

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 110%

MAX RAINFALL = 29mm on 2nd of July

lostinashford

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.4
AUG IMT = 15.6

JUNE Prc = 91%
JULY Prc = 92%
AUG Prc = 109%


SEASONAL MAX = 25.6 on July 15

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 114%

MAX RAINFALL = 67.0 mm on 13 August

traecy1

June IMT: 14.5
July IMT: 15.5
August IMT: 15.3

June PRC: 85%
July PRC: 90%
Aug PRC: 100%

Seasonal Max: 29.2 on July 14th

Summer Sunshine: 110%

Max Rainfall: 43mm August 17th

M.T. Cranium

I didn't know that today (3rd) was a bank holiday when I came up with the deadline so I will extend it one day, anyone who enters before 0300h Wed 5th is officially in the contest, but no late entries accepted.

Anyone who has already entered is free to edit or repost, you can edit without fear because I haven't copied any of the info yet, and I won't before the deadline.

eskimocat

June IMT: 14.5
July IMT: 15.5
August IMT: 15.7

June PRC: 90%
July PRC: 98%
Aug PRC: 100%

Seasonal Max: 32c on July 30th

Summer Sunshine: 110%

Max Rainfall: 63mm August 10th

Thanks for the extra day MT, would have missed it otherwise!

Lumi

June IMT: 14.7
July IMT: 15.0
August IMT: 15.2

June PRC: 94%
July PRC: 105%
Aug PRC: 100%

Seasonal Max: 26.5c on June 29th

Summer Sunshine: 107%

Max Rainfall: 42mm August 30th

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for summer 2013 contest
________________________________________

22 forecasts have been received. Scoring will be by rank rather than absolute errors and will work this way: for two questions worth 15, each rank given 1.0 from 15 down to 7 then rest at 0.5 intervals. For other questions worth 5 or 10, least accurate two are given zero then rest are given increments of 0.5, with those scores doubled up for 5 point questions. Ties may affect the distribution. Max temp and rainfall questions are scored independently for values and dates.

Consensus is the median value and may not round off exactly, scoring for consensus does not alter scoring for actual contestants.

The forecasts in order of average temperature for the three months:

FORECASTER ________ IMT ____________ PRC ______ MAX TEMP ___ MAX RAIN __ SUN
________________________________________________________________________________

jpmarn ________ 14.1 17.8 16.5 16.1 __ 112 55 76 81 ___ 31.2 10/7 __ 46.0 31/8 __ 132

M.T. Cranium ___ 15.2 16.3 16.1 15.9 __ 78 75 90 81 ____ 29.2 28/6 __ 35.7 28/9 __ 125

Joe Public ______ 14.9 15.9 15.9 15.6 __ 69 89 99 86 ____ 26.9 31/7 __ 39.0 01/7 __ 119

talkabout ______ 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.4 __ 85 90 95 90 ____ 28.9 07/8 __ 29.0 02/7 __ 110

omicron _______ 13.0 17.0 16.0 15.3 __ 115 85 100 100 __ 30.0 29/7 __ 50.0 20/9 __ 110

harps _________ 14.1 15.7 16.1 15.3 __ 85 110 70 88 ____ 31.1 04/7 __ 49.0 20/7 __ 110

Rickylovesuall __ 14.0 15.8 16.0 15.3 __ 70 80 85 78 _____ 28.8 01/8 _ 130.4 31/8 __ 130

eskimocat _____ 14.5 15.5 15.7 15.2 __ 90 98 100 96 ____ 32.0 30/7 __ 63.0 10/8 __ 110

traecy.1 ______ 14.5 15.5 15.3 15.1 __ 85 90 100 95 ____ 29.2 14/7 __ 43.0 17/8 __ 110

lostinashford___ 14.2 15.4 15.6 15.1 __ 91 92 109 97 ____ 25.6 15/7 __ 67.0 13/8 __ 114

Lumi _________ 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.0 __ 94 105 100 100 __ 26.5 29/6 __ 42.0 30/8 __ 107



Consensus ____ 14.2 15.4 15.2 15.0 __ 90 90 100 93 ____ 28.5 21/7 __ 47.0 15/8 __ 110



DOCARCH _____ 14.2 15.6 15.2 15.0 __ 90 82 97 90 ____ 30.2 21/7 __ 56.0 20/8 __ 108

westmidlands __ 14.7 15.3 14.9 15.0 __ 78 94 103 92 ___ 29.0 25/6 __ 52.0 15/8 __ 115

Bsal _________ 14.1 15.4 14.9 14.8 __ 97 91 110 99 ____ 25.1 13/7 __ 42.0 17/8 __ 103

dsmythy ______ 13.1 15.7 15.2 14.7 __ 118 78 104 100 __ 29.8 22/7 __ 57.9 05/8 ___95

sunflower3 ____ 14.3 15.1 14.6 14.7 __ 94 102 96 97 ____ 27.1 29/7 __ 48.0 18/8 __ 108

nilhg _________ 14.2 14.2 15.2 14.5 __ 87 99 97 94 ____ 28.1 29/6 __ 28.0 06/8 __ 108

force eleven ___ 13.5 14.6 15.0 14.4 __ 105 95 120 107 __ 26.2 10/7 __ 42.0 14/8 __ 105

pauldry _______ 13.8 14.9 13.9 14.2 __ 99 90 121 103 ___ 24.9 24/7 __ 59.0 31/8 ___93

John mac _____ 13.3 14.7 14.2 14.1 __ 101 95 100 99 ___ 26.5 29/6 __ 42.0 30/8 __ 107

Strasser ______ 12.5 13.8 13.2 13.2 __ 120 110 105 112 __ 25.9 30/7 __ 41.5 25/6 ___94

dasa29 _______ 11.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 __ 90 75 75 87 _____ 27.0 13/7 __ 80.0 17/6 __ 150

M.T. Cranium

33.5 mm of rain at Valentia on 10th of June.

Will check MS for confirmation but 25.3 C at Newport earlier this month.

M.T. Cranium

I have broken radio silence to report 38.9 mm at Cork on the 16th of June and checking Moorepark as the only plausible off-page in excess, the verdict is that dasa29 has a corker of a date prediction, as to amount, not so much. Joe Public will be hoping for a cease-rain now. But it's early days yet and well, I hope this is the most until 29 September personally.

But somehow I have that feeling it may not be. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Just your scores for June

(IMT 13.6, PRC 91%)


FORECASTER ___ IMT _ PRC _ SCORE (June)
________________________________________________________________________________


lostinashford___ 3.0 __ 5.0 __ 8.0
DOCARCH _____ 3.0 __ 5.0 __ 8.0

Consensus ____ 3.0 __ 5.0 __ 8.0

harps ________ 4.0 __ 3.5 __ 7.5
Bsal _________ 4.0 __ 3.5 __ 7.5
pauldry _______ 5.0 __ 2.5 __ 7.5
John mac _____ 4.5 __ 2.5 __ 7.0
eskimocat _____2.0 __ 5.0 __ 7.0
nilhg _________ 3.0 __ 3.5 __ 6.5
force eleven ___ 5.0 __ 1.5 __ 6.5
sunflower3 ____ 2.0 __ 4.0 __ 6.0
Rickylovesuall _ 4.5 __ 1.0 __ 5.5
traecy.1 _____ 2.0 __ 3.5 __ 5.5
Lumi ________ 1.0 __ 4.0 __ 5.0
jpmarn ______ 4.0 __ 1.0 __ 5.0
dasa29 ______ 0.0 __ 5.0 __ 5.0
talkabout ____ 0.5 __ 3.5 __ 4.0
dsmythy _____ 4.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.0
omicron _____ 3.0 __ 0.5 __ 3.5
westmidlands _ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 2.5
M.T. Cranium _ 0.0 __ 2.0 __ 2.0
Joe Public ____ 0.5 __ 0.5 __ 1.0
Strasser _____ 1.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0

M.T. Cranium

This is a guide to who owns what blocks of time for the maximum, and what their guess is for that maximum. At the moment it looks like we are owned by nilhg, force eleven, or maybe Jpmarn ...

Date ranges indicate the dates where your forecast would be highest ranked.

1 June to 22 June _____ John mac (26.5) _____ 25.4 was recorded on 8th
until that reading is bettered, this represents a perfect timing forecast by ranking but if it is eclipsed, John mac can score either the max or at least some on temperature. ... note, date wrong in table, can't edit that now.

23 June to 26 June ____ Westmidlands (29.1) ___ 25.4 was recorded on 8th
until that reading is bettered, this represents second top ranked for timing forecast but if it is eclipsed, Wm can score some more than at present on temperature.

27 June to 28 June __ MTC (29.2) ___
has some hope in the temp, can score a few points on date if it happens soon, come on Monday!

29 June to 1 July ____ Lumi (26.5)
hopes rest on a max near the prediction in the next few days

2 July to 5 July ______ Harps (31.1)
could do well if that value is hit during the week

6 to 8 July _________ Nilhg (28.1) ____ table is wrong on date, can't edit now
sorry I got your date wrong too (editing mistake) __ this could do very well I think

9 to 11 July ________ Jpmarn (31.2) and force eleven (26.2)
not too shabby

12 to 13 July _______ Bsal (25.1), dasa29 (27.0)
in with a chance

14 July ____________ traecy.1 (29.2)
it could happen

15 July to 18 July ____________ lostinashford (25.6) ___
hopes rest on dates, slight increase at most over June

19 July to 21 July ____________ DOCARCH (30.2) and Con Sensus (28.5)
why Con why?

22 July to 23 July ____________ dsmythy (29.8)
who can say?

24 July to 26 July ____________ pauldry (24.9)
hopes rest mainly on dates and minimal increase over June

27 July to 29 July ____________ omicron (30.0), sunflower3 (27.1)

30 July _________________ eskimocat (32.0) and Strasser (25.6)

31 July _________________ Joe Public (26.9)

1 August to 4 August ________________ Rickylovesuall (28.8)

5 August to end of summer ___________ talkabout (28.9)

M.T. Cranium

As 29.5 reported both 9th and 10th, Jpmarn could sweep this category if it happens to reach close to his 31.2 today. Any improvement on 29.5 will boost his score on that side. Otherwise the dates and top temps would bring about a rather wide spread of 7-8 out of 10 scores over the category, unless of course this warm spell is eclipsed by an even stronger burst of heat later on. If these values hold, tracey.1 would likely have the highest score in the category overall. He could benefit further from a slightly higher but similar temperature on Friday or the weekend. There are several lurking in the weeds down the river a bit. DOCARCH, Dsmythy and omicron are well positioned to take advantage of any greater heat in late July, also eskimocat if it really sizzles at 32.0.

M.T. Cranium

29.6 at Mountdillon on Friday 19th (if it verifies in the MS) would edge out the earlier 29.5, if it doesn't verify Shannon hit 29.5 again same day which will give two starting points for date of max. Assuming that the 29.6 verifies, DOCARCH and dsmythy will do very well in this category.