Summer 2013 Forecast Contest

M.T. Cranium

48.4 mm rain at Dunsany on Thursday 25th, if verified would be the new maximum rainfall and give Harps a boat load of points in that category.

Despite a few deluges around the country (Newport, Markree and Moorepark for instance) this recent rain has made a point of avoiding the grid of eleven stations used in the MS for rainfall percentages and thus I believe the July rainfall will probably fail to reach 75% unless it picks up further before end of the month. The July IMT will almost definitely be higher than any guess made. Watch for more provisional scoring soon.

Rikand

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

JUNE IMT = 14.0
JULY IMT = 15.8
AUG IMT = 16.0


JUNE PRC = 70%
JULY PRC = 80%
AUG PRC = 85%


SEASONAL MAX = 28.8 on 1st of August 2013

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 130%

MAX RAINFALL = 130.4 on 31st of August

Uh, I meant 1st of August for the rain and 31st of August for the temperature ?

M.T. Cranium

Don't give up on the 31st, your amount will still be in play, barely. Anyway, your warmest date at present is worth something, let you know what when I get a moment to update the scoring in this contest perhaps on the weekend (holiday down time for me, yay).

IMT of about 17.9 means Jpmarn and omicron share 5.0 points and Joe Public plus yer host have 4.5 each. July rainfall has been increasing rapidly, was as low as 25% a week ago but is now 75-80 per cent, will report on that later.

pauldry

86 per cent rain for July

M.T. Cranium

June and July scores, provisional seasonal max

We already scored June, now for July, IMT was 17.8 C above all predictions so that one's easy to score, and the rainfall was 86% about 10% of which fell on the 31st helping many to recover points. FYI the sunshine at 148% places the first two months at 129%. The seasonal max tripped us up in the monthly contest, the MS reported that a station in Kerry (Ardfert) hit 30.3 which was not indicated in the lists on the website day to day so I wasn't aware of it, but the rules say we go with the MAX from the MS so it's 30.3 on the 19th. I rather doubt this will be beaten later in the summer so we can post some provisional scores for that category subject to revision if some places gets warmer than 30.3.


FORECASTER ___ IMT J,J _ PRC J,J _ MAX _ date __ SCORE so far
________________________________________________________________________________



DOCARCH _____ 3.0 3.5 __ 5.0 4.5 __ 5.0 5.0 ____ 26.0
traecy.1 _____ 2.0 3.0 __ 3.5 4.5 __ 4.0 4.5 ____ 21.5
omicron _____ 3.0 5.0 __ 0.5 5.0 __ 5.0 3.0 ____ 21.5

Consensus ____ 3.0 2.5 __ 5.0 4.5 __ 2.0 4.5 ____ 21.5

dsmythy _____ 4.0 4.0 __ 0.0 3.0 __ 4.5 5.0 ____ 20.5
harps ________ 4.0 4.0 __ 3.5 1.5 __ 4.5 1.5 ____ 19.0
lostinashford___ 3.0 2.5 __ 5.0 3.5 __ 0.5 4.0 ____ 18.5
jpmarn _______ 4.0 5.0 __ 1.0 0.0 __ 4.0 3.5 ____ 18.5
Bsal _________ 4.0 2.5 __ 3.5 3.5 __ 0.0 4.0 ____ 17.5
pauldry _______5.0 1.0 __ 2.5 4.5 __ 0.0 4.5 ____ 17.5
eskimocat _____2.0 3.0 __ 5.0 2.5 __ 2.5 2.5 ____ 17.5
Rickylovesuall _ 4.5 4.0 __ 1.0 3.5 __ 3.0 1.5 ____ 17.5
talkabout ____ 0.5 3.0 __ 3.5 4.5 __ 3.0 1.0 ____ 15.5
sunflower3 ____ 2.0 1.5 __ 4.0 2.0 __ 2.0 3.5 ____ 15.0
M.T. Cranium __ 0.0 4.5 __ 2.0 2.5 __ 4.0 0.5 ____ 13.5
Joe Public _____ 0.5 4.5 __ 0.5 5.0 __ 1.5 2.0 ___ 13.5
force eleven ___ 5.0 0.5 __ 1.5 2.5 __ 0.5 3.0 ____ 13.0
nilhg _________ 3.0 0.5 __ 3.5 1.5 __ 2.0 2.0 ____ 12.5
John mac _____ 4.5 1.0 __ 2.5 2.5 __ 1.0 1.0 ____ 12.5
dasa29 _______ 0.0 0.0 __ 5.0 1.5 __ 1.5 4.0 ____ 12.0
westmidlands __ 1.0 2.0 __ 1.5 3.0 __ 3.5 0.5 ____ 11.5
Lumi _________ 1.0 1.5 __ 4.0 1.0 __ 1.0 1.0 _____ 9.5
Strasser ______ 1.0 0.0 __ 0.0 0.0 __ 1.0 2.5 _____ 4.5

Next update will include just about everything else after end of August.

The Max rainfall will be based on calendar day, the MS reported on some higher amounts in their 09h-09h climat day but I will base this on the stations in the lists of daily data on the website (past data). Those are only calendar day reports. So far I believe it's 48.4 mm at Dunsany about a week ago, will check on that.

M.T. Cranium

Updated scoring report

August had an IMT of 15.7, the summer mean was also 15.7.

August had rainfall of 75% which brought the summer mean to 83%.

August had sunshine of 79% which made the summer average 112% of normal.

There has been no change since the last report on max temp and it's unlikely that these scores will need revising. We now await the final verdict on maximum 24h rainfall. I may post some thoughts on who could get what number of points there, once this table is sorted out. But with those ten points not yet estimated, these are the current standings given all settled (or likely settled) categories.

FORECASTER ___ IMT J,J,A _ IMT _ PRC J,J,A _ PRC _ MAX _ date _ SUN _ SCORE so far
Max points ________ 5 5 5 __ 15 ____ 5 5 5 __ 15 ___ 5 ___ 5 __ 10 ____ 90 ___________________________________________________________________________________



harps ________ 4.0 4.0 3.5 _ 12.0 __ 3.5 1.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 4.5 1.5 __10.0__ 60.0
talkabout _____ 0.5 3.0 5.0 _ 13.0 __ 3.5 4.5 4.0 __ 9.0 __ 3.0 1.0 __10.0__ 56.5
DOCARCH ____ 3.0 3.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 3.5 __ 9.0 __ 5.0 5.0 __ 6.5___ 54.0
Joe Public ____ 0.5 4.5 4.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.5 5.0 3.0 _ 13.0__ 1.5 2.0 __ 4.0___ 53.5
omicron _____ 3.0 5.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 0.5 5.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 5.0 3.0 __10.0___ 53.0
M.T. Cranium _ 0.0 4.5 3.5 _ 14.0 __ 2.0 2.5 4.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 0.5 __ 2.0___ 52.0
jpmarn ______ 4.0 5.0 1.5 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 0.0 5.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 3.5 __ 0.5 __ 51.5
traecy.1 _____ 2.0 3.0 3.5 __ 7.0 __ 3.5 4.5 2.5 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 4.5 __10.0__ 50.5
Rickylovesuall _ 4.5 4.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 3.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 3.0 1.5 __ 1.5__ 50.5

Consensus ____ 3.0 2.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 2.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 4.5 __10.0__ 49.5

eskimocat _____2.0 3.0 5.0 __ 8.0 __ 5.0 2.5 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 2.5 2.5 __10.0__ 48.5
lostinashford___ 3.0 2.5 5.0 __ 7.0 __ 5.0 3.5 0.5 __ 5.0 __ 0.5 4.0 _ 10.0__ 46.0
nilhg _________3.0 0.5 3.0 __ 3.0 __ 3.5 1.5 3.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 2.0 __ 6.5__ 35.0
westmidlands __ 1.0 2.0 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 1.5 3.0 1.5 __ 7.0__ 3.5 0.5 __ 7.0__ 34.5
sunflower3 ____ 2.0 1.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 4.0 2.0 3.5 __ 5.0 __ 2.0 3.5 __ 6.5__ 34.5
dsmythy ______4.0 4.0 3.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 3.0 1.0 __ 3.0 __ 4.5 5.0 __ 2.0___ 33.5
dasa29 _______ 0.0 0.0 2.0 __ 0.5 __ 5.0 1.5 5.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.5 4.0 __ 0.0___ 31.5
Bsal _________ 4.0 2.5 1.5 __ 4.5 __ 3.5 3.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 4.0 __ 3.0___ 31.0
Lumi _________ 1.0 1.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 1.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 5.0___ 29.0
John mac _____ 4.5 1.0 0.5 __ 1.5 __ 2.5 2.5 2.5 __ 4.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 5.0___26.0
force eleven ___ 5.0 0.5 2.0 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 2.5 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.5 3.0 __ 4.0___ 22.5
pauldry _______5.0 1.0 0.0 __ 2.0 __ 2.5 4.5 0.0 __ 1.5 __ 0.0 4.5 __ 1.0___ 22.0
Strasser ______ 1.0 0.0 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.0 0.0 1.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.0 2.5 __ 1.5____ 8.5
__________________________________

(after compiling this, I had a look at the summer seasonal summary on the met.ie website. They now give 31.0 at Dooks, Kerry as the new seasonal high. However, as I normally go by the MS, I am inclined to stick with the scoring already worked out. Using this new figure (same date so that half would not change) would make very small adjustments for most and eskimocat would benefit the most by about 1.5 points. So if it doesn't affect the overall outcome very much I guess it's a moot point. Also the rounding of sunshine percentages and shorter length of June appears to have given 114 rather than 112 per cent of normal sunshine in the seasonal. That too would adjust some scores slightly. However the rules stated average of the three months. That 114 was just over 113.5 and my 112 was 112.33 so with all the rounding involved, you get a 2% difference in round numbers. Anyway, the rainfall will likely decide how this ends up. We have an amount of 48.4 mm in late July at Dunsany (I am going to go with calendar day rather than any 24-hr as that was implied by giving a date). Our contest leader is very close to those data, so will win for sure if there isn't a bigger rainfall in September. The main challenge would come from omicron who has 50.0 mm on 20 September. It might not be quite enough but nobody in between has much chance because they have lower amounts on earlier dates than harps. In my case, with a lower amount and a date at the end of September, I am basically stymied by omicron since no outcome can give me more points than he would get. So I would say harps probably has this sewn up with omicron possibly second if we get a very late heavy rainfall.

Final report then after 30 September (of course we could also see a new max but that seems next to impossible).

M.T. Cranium

Final scores in the Summer 2013 contest


FORECASTER ___ IMT J,J,A _ IMT _ PRC J,J,A _ PRC _ TMAX _ date _ Rmax _ date _ SUN _ SCORE so far
Max points ________ 5 5 5 __ 15 ____ 5 5 5 __ 15 ____ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ___ 5 ___ 10 ___ 100___________________________________________________________________________________


harps ________ 4.0 4.0 3.5 _ 12.0 __ 3.5 1.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 4.5 1.5 __ 5.0 5.0 __ 10.0__ 70.0
talkabout _____ 0.5 3.0 5.0 _ 13.0 __ 3.5 4.5 4.0 __ 9.0 __ 3.0 1.0 __ 1.0 3.5 ___10.0__ 61.0
DOCARCH ____ 3.0 3.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 3.5 __ 9.0 __ 5.0 5.0 __ 3.5 2.0 ___ 6.5___ 59.5
Joe Public _____ 0.5 4.5 4.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.5 5.0 3.0 _ 13.0__ 1.5 2.0 __ 2.0 3.0 ___ 4.0 __ 58.5
omicron ______ 3.0 5.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 0.5 5.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 5.0 3.0 __ 4.5 0.5 ___10.0__ 58.0
jpmarn _______ 4.0 5.0 1.5 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 0.0 5.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 3.5 __ 4.5 1.5 ___ 0.5 __ 57.5
traecy.1 ______ 2.0 3.0 3.5 __ 7.0 __ 3.5 4.5 2.5 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 4.5 __ 4.0 3.0 ___10.0__ 57.5

Consensus ____ 3.0 2.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 2.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 4.5 __ 4.5 3.5 ___10.0__ 57.5

eskimocat _____2.0 3.0 5.0 __ 8.0 __ 5.0 2.5 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 2.5 2.5 __ 1.5 4.5 ___10.0__ 54.5
M.T. Cranium __ 0.0 4.5 3.5 _ 14.0 __ 2.0 2.5 4.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 0.5 __ 1.5 0.0 ___ 2.0 _ 53.5
Rickylovesuall _ 4.5 4.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 3.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 3.0 1.5 __ 0.0 1.5 ___ 1.5__ 52.0
lostinashford___ 3.0 2.5 5.0 __ 7.0 __ 5.0 3.5 0.5 __ 5.0 __ 0.5 4.0 _ 0.5 4.0 ___10.0__ 50.5
westmidlands __ 1.0 2.0 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 1.5 3.0 1.5 __ 7.0__ 3.5 0.5 __ 4.0 3.5 ___ 7.0__ 42.0
sunflower3 ____ 2.0 1.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 4.0 2.0 3.5 __ 5.0 __ 2.0 3.5 __ 5.0 2.5 ___ 6.5 _ 42.0
dsmythy ______4.0 4.0 3.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 3.0 1.0 __ 3.0 __ 4.5 5.0 __ 2.5 5.0 ___ 2.0__ 41.0
nilhg _________3.0 0.5 3.0 __ 3.0 __ 3.5 1.5 3.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 2.0 __ 1.0 4.5 ___ 6.5 __ 40.5
Bsal _________ 4.0 2.5 1.5 __ 4.5 __ 3.5 3.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 4.0 __ 3.5 3.0 ___ 3.0 __ 37.5
Lumi _________ 1.0 1.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 1.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 3.5 2.5 ___ 5.0__ 35.0
dasa29 _______ 0.0 0.0 2.0 __ 0.5 __ 5.0 1.5 5.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.5 4.0 __ 0.5 0.5 ___ 0.0 __ 32.5
John mac _____ 4.5 1.0 0.5 __ 1.5 __ 2.5 2.5 2.5 __ 4.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 0.0 0.0 ___10.0___31.0
force eleven ___ 5.0 0.5 2.0 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 2.5 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.5 3.0 __ 3.5 4.5 ___ 4.0 __ 30.5
pauldry _______5.0 1.0 0.0 __ 2.0 __ 2.5 4.5 0.0 __ 1.5 __ 0.0 4.5 __ 2.0 2.5___ 1.0 ___ 26.5
Strasser ______ 1.0 0.0 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.0 0.0 1.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.0 2.5 __ 2.5 2.0 ___ 1.5___ 13.0

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As discussed a month ago, the maximum rainfall of 48.4 mm on 25 July at Dunsany was not yet settled. The heaviest amount in September of 38 mm on the 28th at Sherkin Island almost matched my forecast but didn't change the result. So the above list is now finalized .. one minor change was made to John Mac's sunshine score when I noticed an error in the table (spotted because of an error in the rainfall forecast, template being used was not corrected for his entries in those categories).

Congratulations to Harps for a decisive win with Talkabout and DOCARCH in the medals. Thanks for playing and watch for the winter forecast contest announcement in November.

eskimocat

Congratulations Harps, massive score!! good for you.

DOCARCH

Just to say here, thanks to MT for all your hard work in running the seasonal and monthly contests.

talkabout

Congrats Harps and thanks to MT for all the hard work.

Harps

Not had a lot of free time recently so only seeing this now

I tried to put some sort of effort into it instead of picking figures out of my head but still shocked that I actually won the thing! The CFS monthly forecast gave me a helping hand and the rainfall prediction gave a nice boost, a good consistent score across most categories though. Great to finally beat Con Sensus as well

Thanks as always for the effort MT

M.T. Cranium

'Twas a good effort indeed ... unlike my edited table which I didn't check very carefully, here's a better layout of it that makes a bit more sense.

FORECASTER ___ IMT J,J,A __ IMT __ PRC J,J,A _ PRC _ TMAX, date _ Rmax, date _ SUN _ TOTAL
__ Max points ___ 5 _ 5 _ 5 __ 15 __ 5 _ 5 _ 5 ___ 15 ___ 5 __ 5 ___ 5 __ 5 ___ 10 ___ 100


harps ________ 4.0 4.0 3.5 _ 12.0 __ 3.5 1.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 4.5 1.5 __ 5.0 5.0 __ 10.0__ 70.0
talkabout _____ 0.5 3.0 5.0 _ 13.0 __ 3.5 4.5 4.0 __ 9.0 __ 3.0 1.0 __ 1.0 3.5 ___10.0__ 61.0
DOCARCH ____ 3.0 3.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 3.5 __ 9.0 __ 5.0 5.0 __ 3.5 2.0 ___ 6.5___ 59.5
Joe Public _____ 0.5 4.5 4.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.5 5.0 3.0 _ 13.0__ 1.5 2.0 __ 2.0 3.0 ___ 4.0 __ 58.5
omicron ______ 3.0 5.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 0.5 5.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 5.0 3.0 __ 4.5 0.5 ___10.0__ 58.0
jpmarn _______ 4.0 5.0 1.5 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 0.0 5.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 3.5 __ 4.5 1.5 ___ 0.5 __ 57.5
traecy.1 ______ 2.0 3.0 3.5 __ 7.0 __ 3.5 4.5 2.5 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 4.5 __ 4.0 3.0 ___10.0__ 57.5

Consensus ____ 3.0 2.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 5.0 4.5 2.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 4.5 __ 4.5 3.5 ___10.0__ 57.5

eskimocat _____2.0 3.0 5.0 __ 8.0 __ 5.0 2.5 2.5 __ 5.5 __ 2.5 2.5 __ 1.5 4.5 ___10.0__ 54.5
M.T. Cranium __ 0.0 4.5 3.5 _ 14.0 __ 2.0 2.5 4.0 _ 15.0 __ 4.0 0.5 __ 1.5 0.0 ___ 2.0 _ 53.5
Rickylovesuall _ 4.5 4.0 4.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.0 3.5 4.5 _ 11.0 __ 3.0 1.5 __ 0.0 1.5 ___ 1.5__ 52.0
lostinashford___ 3.0 2.5 5.0 __ 7.0 __ 5.0 3.5 0.5 __ 5.0 __ 0.5 4.0 _ 0.5 4.0 ___10.0__ 50.5
westmidlands __ 1.0 2.0 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 1.5 3.0 1.5 __ 7.0__ 3.5 0.5 __ 4.0 3.5 ___ 7.0__ 42.0
sunflower3 ____ 2.0 1.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 4.0 2.0 3.5 __ 5.0 __ 2.0 3.5 __ 5.0 2.5 ___ 6.5 _ 42.0
dsmythy ______4.0 4.0 3.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 3.0 1.0 __ 3.0 __ 4.5 5.0 __ 2.5 5.0 ___ 2.0__ 41.0
nilhg _________3.0 0.5 3.0 __ 3.0 __ 3.5 1.5 3.5 __ 6.5 __ 2.0 2.0 __ 1.0 4.5 ___ 6.5 __ 40.5
Bsal _________ 4.0 2.5 1.5 __ 4.5 __ 3.5 3.5 0.5 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 4.0 __ 3.5 3.0 ___ 3.0 __ 37.5
Lumi _________ 1.0 1.5 3.0 __ 6.0 __ 4.0 1.0 2.5 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 3.5 2.5 ___ 5.0__ 35.0
dasa29 _______ 0.0 0.0 2.0 __ 0.5 __ 5.0 1.5 5.0 _ 12.0 __ 1.5 4.0 __ 0.5 0.5 ___ 0.0 __ 32.5
John mac _____ 4.5 1.0 0.5 __ 1.5 __ 2.5 2.5 2.5 __ 4.0 __ 1.0 1.0 __ 0.0 0.0 ___10.0___31.0
force eleven ___ 5.0 0.5 2.0 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 2.5 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.5 3.0 __ 3.5 4.5 ___ 4.0 __ 30.5
pauldry _______5.0 1.0 0.0 __ 2.0 __ 2.5 4.5 0.0 __ 1.5 __ 0.0 4.5 __ 2.0 2.5___ 1.0 ___ 26.5
Strasser ______ 1.0 0.0 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.0 0.0 1.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.0 2.5 __ 2.5 2.0 ___ 1.5___ 13.0

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