June 2013 Boards forecast contest

Rikand

24 is grand - 25 is better

but not 26 please

Quickelles

26.2 would be just fine.

pauldry

Quickelles wrote: »

26.2 would be just fine.

24 would be enough, wonder will Sligo finally see a Sunday without rain after so many dull ones with rain

Quickelles

pauldry wrote: »

24 would be enough, wonder will Sligo finally see a Sunday without rain after so many dull ones with rain

What's rain?

Of course here on the East coast temps over 20C are equally rare!

pauldry

24.6c highest of june and of course summer recorded at shannon

maybe newport or mount dillon beat it

checked mace head

it made 23.7c

sligo got 24.0 on a few occasions but I think it hit 24.1c once around 3pm

rosses point was even 23c on car in wind (dont know accuracy of that compared to oregon)

whatever I only predicted 24 MAX for June so lost points off that

Lets see what bonus holds tommorrow could be 18 to 22

(live a sad life looking at thermometors whilst getting sunburnt)

pauldry

18.9c in Dublin on 1800 ogimet report

Harps

Newport made 25C today though we wont know the actual value until tomorrow. Quite a few IWN stations in the west topped 25C but obviously they don't count for this

Shannon surprisingly only made 24.3C going by ogimet, there was a lot less wind today so I thought maxes would be higher

Speak Now

Newport got 25.4 according to

pauldry

yes it definitely got over 25c in newport, just need to confirm

shannon you are useless

Quickelles

Anywhere hit 26.2 yet? The magic number!

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

18.9c in Dublin on 1800 ogimet report

winnar alright.

Weather Data for Yesterday 08-Jun-2013

Station Rain Max Min Sun Wind Soil Global Gmin
Dublin Airport 0.0 18.9 4.4 15.5 5.0 19.2 3040 0.7

Quickelles

Are there any bonus points for being close

M.T. Cranium

Sure, the bonus points go by rank order. We have 34 entrants, this will mean three get ten points, three get nine, etc, and the four furthest adrift get zero. Ties might change the details slightly. From what I can see, it's ten points for waterways who hit on the mark (18.9), Jerry Seinfeld (19.0) then two more are tied so they both get ten points (Tae laidir 18.6, harps 19.2). That means two spots left for nine points and those go to kindredspirit (18.5) and John mac (18.4). Con Sensus also gets nine points (those are assigned without disrupting the flow to actual contestants). From eight points down to about five you'll need to be in the 18 to 20 range, I think. Anyway, you can check the table and see roughly where you stand.

Meanwhile, IMT is on 14.0, rainfall has been nil for most of the eleven stations used in the MS but Belmullet and Malin Head have had a small amount each, we're sitting at 3-4% of normal in the grid as of now, and sunshine must be about 150% at least.

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days the IMT was on 13.7, estimate 13.6 at mid-month.

The rainfall has generally not reached quite normal values as a wet second week followed a bone dry first week, but Valentia seems to be ahead of the pack. Most of the other stations are between 70 and 110 per cent of normal for the first half. I would say we're sitting at around 90 per cent so far.

The sunshine was not totally sunk by the change in the pattern as the ag report indicates the second week stayed above normal slightly, balanced with the 200% or more of the first week. So we're at about 165% normal sunshine and it would take an exceptionally cloudy second half to bring that below 120% now.

Tae laidir

Met Eireann is giving me the following:
Min: 3.8 Casement 1 June
Max: 25.4 Newport 8 June.

All the action at start of month, though Mt. Dillon showing 6 deg at midnight tonight.

omicron

Tae laidir wrote: »

Met Eireann is giving me the following:
Min: 3.8 Casement 1 June
Max: 25.4 Newport 8 June.

All the action at start of month, though Mt. Dillon showing 6 deg at midnight tonight.

3.1 at Mt Dillon last night. Almost a grass frost at 0.1.

Max could be broken at the weekend if sunny.

IMT at 13.4 to the 25th.

Rainfall estimated somewhere between 80 and 90% I'd say.

Sun is still very high despite lower values lately, probably somewhere above 130%.

Rikand

omicron wrote: »

IMT at 13.4 to the 25th.

Get this to go up another couple of degrees and apart from the bonus question I'll have almost a perfect month

pauldry

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Get this to go up another couple of degrees and apart from the bonus question I'll have almost a perfect month

As usual I get the imt spot on and the rest wrong

I find min temp the toughest to predict

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final values for June:

IMT 13.6 C
MAX 25.4 at Newport 8th
MIN 2.8 at Mountdillon 5th
PRC 91% of normal
SUN 114% of normal

The bonus question was discussed earlier in the thread and scoring will follow perhaps by this evening.

rameire

looks good for to me

Quickelles

IMT 13.6 13.2
MAX 25.4 at Newport 8th 26.2
MIN 2.8 at Mountdillon 5th 3.8
PRC 91% of normal 76
SUN 114% of normal 112

:rolleyes:

Bloody Mountdillon!
And the bloody wet west of Ireland.

Bah.

M.T. Cranium

Have had some computer trouble, posted a monthly scoring summary and lost both connection and the copy at the same time ... too hot to go at it again but I do remember top scores were John Mac at 94 (!) and rameire at 80. Con Sensus was then something like 76 and the usual suspects were not far behind. The people with the 25 point penalties did fairly well but Mrs R failed to exceed the quota so I may have to make up a new rule to be nice (10 point minimum for giving it a go if nobody objects).

I will repost in a while, maybe won't show up until tomorrow your time, so look for the full story. Where I am now (not at home) it is sunny and 35 C, so likely to be out on a patio celebrating (or thinking ironic thoughts about) our national holiday.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have had some computer trouble, posted a monthly scoring summary and lost both connection and the copy at the same time ... too hot to go at it again but I do remember top scores were John Mac at 94 (!) and rameire at 80. Con Sensus was then something like 76 and the usual suspects were not far behind. The people with the 25 point penalties did fairly well but Mrs R failed to exceed the quota so I may have to make up a new rule to be nice (10 point minimum for giving it a go if nobody objects).

I will repost in a while, maybe won't show up until tomorrow your time, so look for the full story. Where I am now (not at home) it is sunny and 35 C, so likely to be out on a patio celebrating (or thinking ironic thoughts about) our national holiday.

94 eek

I resign

M.T. Cranium

If at first you don't succeed, try again, you may fail twice in a row ... edit in progress, not gonna lose all this work twice

Scoring for June

FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Dub(8th)
_____________________________________________________________

Actual values ________ 13.6 _ 25.4 _ 2.8 _ 091 _ 114 _ 18.9 ____ TOTALS

John Mac _____________ 23 __ 19 __ 19 __ 15 __ 09 __ 09 _____ 94 :eek:
rameire _______________ 24 __ 19 __ 10 __ 13 __ 10 __ 04 _____ 80

Con Sensus ____________ 21 __ 16 __ 08 __ 13 __ 09 __ 09 _____ 76

Rickylovesuall __________ 21 __ 16 __ 18 __ 08 __ 07 __ 05 _____ 75
Bsal __________________ 22 __ 16 __ 08 __ 15 __ 08 __ 06 _____ 75
Jerry Seinfeld___________ 18 __ 16 __ 10 __ 11 __ 09 __ 10 _____ 74
lostinashford ___________ 22 __ 11 __ 13 __ 13 __ 09 __ 05 _____ 73
harps _________________ 20 __ 18 __ 00 __ 13 __ 09 __ 10 _____ 70
DOCARCH ______________21 __ 13 __ 06 __ 15 __ 09 __ 06 _____ 70
dasa29________________ 09 __ 16 __ 18 __ 15 __ 09 __ 01 _____ 68
homolumo _____________ 23 __ 14 __ 08 __ 12 __ 09 __ 01 _____ 67
talkabout______________ 14 __ 09 __ 14 __ 15 __ 09 __ 06 _____ 67
omicron _______________ 24 __ 00 __ 17 __ 12 __ 07 __ 07 _____ 67
kindredspirit____________ 18 __ 16 __ 03 __ 11 __ 09 __ 09 _____ 66
Quixelles (-5)___________ 21 __ 12 __ 10 __ 10 __ 10 __ 06 _ 69-5=64
jpmarn________________ 19 __ 00 __ 17 __ 08 __ 07 __ 08 _____ 59
Tazio _________________ 16 __ 00 __ 18 __ 12 __ 09 __ 03 _____ 58
Pauldry________________ 23 __ 06 __ 01 __ 13 __ 07 __ 07 _____ 57
traecy.1 _______________ 23 __ 01 __ 00 __ 15 __ 09 __ 08 _____ 56
jd (-25) _______________ 21 __ 16 __ 16 __ 13 __ 09 __ 06 _ 81-25=56
seafields (-5) ___________24 __ 16 __ 03 __ 08 __ 03 __ 07 _ 61-5=56
Tae laidir ______________ 14 __ 00 __ 14 __ 09 __ 08 __ 10 _____ 55
okla (-10) _____________ 19 __ 09 __ 09 __ 13 __ 06 __ 08 _ 64-10=54
nilhg _________________ 13 __ 16 __ 00 __ 11 __ 09 __ 02 _____ 51
dacogawa_____________ 19 __ 00 __ 13 __ 11 __ 07 __ 01 _____ 51
clintondaly_____________ 10 __ 00 __ 20 __ 14 __ 02 __ 04 _____ 50
snowstreams (-25) ______21 __ 13 __ 17 __ 15 __ 09 __ 00 _ 75-25=50
mickger844posts________ 12 __ 13 __ 00 __ 11 __ 09 __ 04 _____ 49
M.T. Cranium___________ 13 __ 00 __ 15 __ 11 __ 06 __ 03 _____ 48
Joe Public _____________ 12 __ 15 __ 00 __ 08 __ 07 __ 02 _____ 44
waterways (-10) _______ 21 __ 00 __ 10 __ 11 __ 01 __ 10 _ 53-10=43
Strasser_______________ 18 __ 00 __ 06 __ 10 __ 06 __ 03 _____ 43
Rocky Bay _____________ 11 __ 00 __ 14 __ 10 __ 02 __ 00 _____ 37
200motels _____________ 21 __ 00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 04 __ 00 _____ 25
H2UMrsRobinson (-50) ___ 15 __ 00 __ 03 __ 10 __ 09 __ 01 _ 38-50=10
________________________________________________________________________

Congrats to John Mac for not only the highest score this month, but I believe the highest score ever (94) ... also to Rameire who got on the right side of that pest, Con Sensus. Fair play to anyone in the 70s and also to those who blew away their large penalties with big scores. Like I was saying, new rule, if you try and fall short with a big penalty, it's a gift of 10 points.

Generally speaking, a rather high scoring month. I will update the annual table when I get home and that could be Wednesday as we're travelling late Tuesday to avoid the worst of the heat. It was about 34 C here today and will be again tomorrow. Not too shabby after weeks of dull, rather cool weather.

Tae laidir

I fear 'The Pest' has moved into 2nd in the Annual Contest. :eek: :eek:

Keep up the good work, Dasa29!!

'Sell in May and go away'

fear_gaoithe

What programs / methods are people using to prepare forecasts?

pauldry

fear_gaoithe wrote: »

What programs / methods are people using to prepare forecasts?

I just think the summer will be warm no method really except secret ones:-)

Rikand

fear_gaoithe wrote: »

What programs / methods are people using to prepare forecasts?

head out into the back garden and see what kind of song the birds are singing.
if its a low key one, it means we'll have a mild summer but windy
if its a chirpy one, it means we'll have a hot summer and no wind
if they arent singing at all, it means they have fecked off to a decent country

It was chirpy last month and it was chirpy again this month, so here's hoping

pauldry

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

head out into the back garden and see what kind of song the birds are singing.
if its a low key one, it means we'll have a mild summer but windy
if its a chirpy one, it means we'll have a hot summer and no wind
if they arent singing at all, it means they have fecked off to a decent country

It was chirpy last month and it was chirpy again this month, so here's hoping

Last summer they were cursing

M.T. Cranium

John mac apparently has a tardis that he acquired some time during May.